It's convenient to compare things to the. com days, but if you take the valuations of the top three stocks in the dot era in the S&P 500 and they're waiting and compare it to the top three now, they were trading at a 62 times forward earnings versus 31 times. So, if this is the bubble, it still hasn't it's not done inflating yet.I just don't think we're there. You're seeing tremendous earnings growth underpinning this AI trend that we didn't see during the dotcom days. Lou, what do you make about this recen ...

Market Trend Analysis - December trading tends to be quiet towards the end of the year, anticipating the Santa Claus rally [1] - Historically, September is the only month with a negative median return since 1990 [2] - December tends to be positive about 80% of the time [3] - A model based on the median since 1928 suggests a dip in the middle of December followed by a rally into year-end [6] - When markets are up significantly coming into December, consolidation is expected for the first half of the month [7][10] Volatility Analysis - The VIX volatility index generally moves inversely to stock prices [8] - Post liberation day saw a significant spike in VIX [8] - VIX typically decreases from October into the end of the year as traders go on holiday [9] Trading Strategy - Markets tend to rise or move sideways as volatility decreases [10] - Small caps tend to outperform large caps like the S&P 500 [11] - The Santa Claus rally encompasses the last five trading days of December and the first two of the new year [11] Risk Management - Stocks rarely crash in December, with 2018 being a notable exception [10] - Significant sell-offs at the end of the year tend to coincide with market bottoms and tops [10] - Seasonality only accounts for about one-third of price action, with catalysts and daily events accounting for at least two-thirds [7]

the the news flow was incredibly negative at the beginning year of the year on Google. Everyone thought they were left for dead. When you think about the transition uh to AI from search and they've done a fantastic job of navigating this recently, you've now seen the anti- Nvidia trade.So everything that's in the Nvidia camp goes down and everything else uh in the Google camp goes up. Right now we're in kind of the the flavor of the week, if you will, which is Google's doing everything there. There's nothin ...

Economic Outlook & GDP Growth - Trend growth in GDP for 2026 is expected to be decent, with a slight pickup from this year's slightly below-trend performance [1][2] - AI spending is estimated to be about 1.5% of GDP, contributing about a quarter of the GDP growth [6][7] - Government shutdown is expected to reduce GDP growth by 1-1.5% [30] - GDP is running at about 4.2% for the third quarter and was about 4% in the second quarter [25] Inflation & Monetary Policy - Inflation is expected to be a bit elevated in Q1, with potential Fed cuts after the next Fed chair takes position [4] - The Fed is likely to cut rates in December, then potentially pause as growth picks up [3] - The Fed may implement two more cuts after December, but further dovish policy may be difficult to push through due to differing opinions among members [4][15] - Rates are closer to what FOMC members view as neutral, making further cuts more difficult [14] Labor Market - Job growth is expected to average around 80,000 for 2026, compared to the recent average closer to 60,000-70,000 [19] - A pickup in cyclical areas of the economy like retail, finance, leisure, and manufacturing is expected to support job growth [18] - September jobs report showed payrolls rose by 119,000 a month, though the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% [21] AI Impact - AI is considered an important but not game-changing factor in economic growth [7] - Concerns exist about overinvestment in AI, but it doesn't appear to be in bubble territory yet [9][10] - Companies are expected to continue investing in AI to avoid being left behind [11][12] Federal Reserve Leadership - Kevin Hasset is a front runner to be the next Fed chair [1] - Even with a more dovish Fed chair, getting committee consensus on policy may be difficult, especially with elevated inflation [13][14] - Fed independence is a lingering concern, but recent voting patterns suggest members are coming together [15][16]

Welcome to Market Catalysts. I'm Julie Hyman. We're 30 minutes since the US trading day. Here's what we're watching this hour. First up, the stock rebound continues on Wall Street. We'll break down the outlook for stocks as the bulls return. Plus, we'll discuss the outlook for rate cuts and the future of the Fed as the White House nears the end of its search to replace JPAL. and we'll hone in on the health of the consumer, the outlook for holiday shopping, and which retailers could be poised to outperform. ...

Oftent times many of us including myself can rely on using AI or chat GPT to assist in finding solutions in things such as our schoolwork >> in your education. Make the most of this time. AI can process information quickly but it cannot replace human intelligence.And don't ask it to do your homework for you. It cannot offer real wisdom. It misses a very important human element.AI will not judge between what is truly right and. ...

Personal Finance Transformation - The report highlights Rita-Soledad Fernandez Paulino's strategy to eliminate $23,000 of debt while on disability income and raising two children [1] - Her approach involves zero-based budgeting and mindset shifts to achieve financial stability and investment opportunities [1] - The transformation empowered her to rewrite her financial future [1] Yahoo Finance Platform - Yahoo Finance offers free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, and comprehensive market data [1] - The platform provides advanced tools and information for managing personal finances [1] - Yahoo Finance is accessible through its website and mobile apps on Apple and Android [1] - Yahoo Finance maintains a presence on social media platforms including X, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and LinkedIn [1]

ECB out with a warning kind of it's a hot it's under the radar this morning. They're warning about uh stretch tech valuations. Is that something like the market will care about on a Friday or next Monday.>> Yeah, definitely not caring about it today. But I think it's also just overdone, right. Everyone's worried about stretch valuations.And here's what I think. Go to the data. everyone.It's convenient to compare things to the dot days. But if you take the valuations of the top three stocks in the dot era in ...

I wanted to turbocharge that by discussing 10 stocks of the day. YOLO writes for the holidays. For this one, I want to bring in Wed Bush managing director and global head of tech research, Dan Ies.Dan kindly slid into my inbox this week with a tidy list of 10 tech stocks you all should own. He also thinks we're not in a bubble. Dan, good to see you, man.It's it's been a while. Looking >> great to see you. >> Good as always.Little boss, little F1 driver. Look, I'm feeling it, man. >> Yeah, of course.For for ...

[music] Good Wednesday morning on Wall Street. I'm Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sazi and this is opening bid. It may be the day before Thanksgiving, but markets are still open for business and we are still getting after it on the show.Here's what's on my watch list right now. HP unleashes the AI bots inside its workforce. The iconic PC and printer [music] maker will cut 10% of its workforce as it aims to replace human jobs with new AI tools.HPC Enrique Lores told me exclusively the cuts are critical ...