聚焦格局更优的细分领域——证券行业 2026 年度投资策 略 20251228 摘要 2025 年券商板块整体跑输金融子行业，估值从年初高位回落至 1.4 倍 左右，但前三季度全上市券商利润增速超过 60%，主要由经纪业务和自 营业务驱动。 头部券商如东方财富、中信证券、国信证券、银河证券等 ROE 领先优势 显著，2025 年达到 9%-10%左右，中金公司、申万宏源、长江证券等 公司的 ROE 提升幅度也很明显。 预计 2026 年资本市场延续慢牛行情，自营业务和经纪业务将支撑行业 ROE，但佣金率将继续下滑，预计从去年末万分之一点九五降至今年末 万分之一点七左右。 投行、资管及国际业务是值得关注的细分领域，盈利复苏滞后于市场好 转，目前仍处于周期底部，有望随着市场修复而逐步复苏，且国际业务 增长迅速但占比仍低。 2025 年 A 股 IPO 市场仍然紧缩，强调投融资平衡，IPO 数量和规模较 小，2023 年底以来的 IPO 暂停状态延续，港股 IPO 及再融资规模恢复 较快，但盈利弹性不及 A 股。 Q&A 2026 年证券行业的投资策略是什么？ 2026 年的证券行业投资策略主要聚焦在格局更优的细分 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 南京证券（601990）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 业务矩阵齐发力，区域国资强赋能 目标价：9.45 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,147 | 3,315 | 3,629 | 3,894 | | 同比增速(%) | 27% | 5% | 9% | 7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,002 | 1,242 | 1,369 | 1,462 | | 同比增速(%) | 48% | 24% | 10% | 7% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.37 | 0.40 | | 市盈率(倍) | 29.4 | 23.6 | 21.4 | 20.0 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.64 | 1.57 | 1.51 | 1.46 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 24 日收盘价 公司研究 证券Ⅲ 2025 年 12 月 25 日 | ...

Group 1: Profitability Insights - The ROE of the entire A-share market (excluding finance and oil) increased from 6.32% in mid-2025 to 6.37% by Q3 2025, primarily driven by improved sales net profit margins due to effective cost control[3] - Sales net profit margin rose from 4.65% to 4.69%, indicating effective cost management despite a decline in gross profit margin from 17.73% to 17.48%[13] - Asset turnover improved slightly from 56.21% to 56.37%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency[28] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Among 17 industries, 10 are experiencing low capacity utilization and low capital expenditure/depreciation, indicating a poor current supply-demand balance but potential for future improvement[4] - Over two-thirds of industries have capacity utilization below historical medians, highlighting persistent demand weakness in the economy[41] Group 3: Valuation and Dividend Trends - In the past year, 24 out of 33 industries exhibited a trend of rising valuations and declining dividends, suggesting a marginal increase in market risk appetite[5] - The report identifies industries with high valuations and low dividends as needing caution, while those with low valuations and high dividends are seen as having better risk-reward profiles[53] Group 4: Dynamic Transmission of Profitability - Historical data shows that improvements in ROE and asset turnover typically lead capital expenditure by six months to a year, indicating a lag in investment response to profitability improvements[6] - Midstream manufacturing and upstream construction materials show a one-year lead of ROE over capital expenditure, while downstream goods show a six-month lead[64]

Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-demand gap for the midstream sector improved, with the demand-investment growth rate difference rising to 7.6% in November from 6.4% in October[1] - Midstream demand growth was 8.9% in November, down from 9.3% in October, while midstream investment growth fell to 1.3%[3] - The demand-investment growth rate difference for midstream has been increasing since May 2024 and turned positive in March 2025[3] Group 2: Future Projections - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth rate difference is likely to remain positive, indicating potential price stabilization in the next two years[2] - The midstream PPI (Producer Price Index) is expected to stop declining and start rising, with a notable month-on-month increase of 0.04% in November, the first positive change since June 2024[4] - If the midstream PPI stabilizes, the year-on-year PPI is likely to continue rising, positively impacting midstream ROE (Return on Equity)[4] Group 3: Economic Data Overview - November's industrial value-added growth rate was 4.8%, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.44%[20] - Retail sales growth in November was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, indicating weak consumer demand[22] - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.3% year-on-year in November, showing ongoing challenges in the property market[27]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 1 、分析方法：以需求增速与投资增速的差值衡量供需矛盾，核心逻辑是若需求增速持续超过投资增速，随 着产能逐渐折旧退出，供需之间的相对关系，有望从"供强需弱"转为"供弱需强"。 2 、指标构建：关键在于需求。将社零、出口、固投与行业层面的上游、中游、下游进行匹配，得到上、 中、下游的需求与投资增速差。 3 、当前现象： 11 月，对于中游，需求与投资增速差进一步上行至 7.6% ，前值为 6.4% ，这一差值自 2024 年 5 月开始持续上行，自 2025 年 3 月开始增速差转正。而上游与下游，观察到截至 10 月的情况， 增速差均尚未超过 0 。 4 、未来推演：从历史数据来看，中游需求与投资增速差持续回升，且增速差能回升至 0 以上，有希望看 到在未来 2 年的时间段内的某个时点，中游 PPI 定基指数止跌回升（即，价格止跌）。我们预计， 2026 年很有可能看到中游 PPI 定基指数持续止跌上行。 事实上，从 2025 年 11 月的数据来看，中游 PPI 环比 出现了久违的环比转正（ 2024 年 6 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's chief China equity strategist maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market, predicting an approximately 18% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index by the end of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The target level for the CSI 300 Index by the end of 2026 is set at 5200 points, indicating over a 12% upside from the current level of 4590 points [1] - The acceleration of the "anti-involution" policy by 2026 is expected to benefit the net profit margin and return on equity of the constituents of the CSI 300 Index [1] Group 2: ETF Information - There are currently 302 ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index, with the lowest management fee being 0.15% per year for the Huaxia CSI 300 ETF (510330.SH) [1]

分红情况具体详见基金分红公告，基金分红规则以基金法律文件为准，鉴于本基金的特点，本基金分红 不一定来自基金盈利，基金分红并不代表总投资的正回报。如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指 数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不 构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测 和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 投资者可关注现金流ETF（159399）。市场表现来看，标的指数富时现金流指数2016年至2024年连续9 年跑赢中证红利指数和沪深300指数。现金流ETF（159399）的标的指数聚焦大中市值，标的指数央国 企占比高于同类现金流指数，月月可评估分红，感兴趣的投资者或可持续关注。 注：现金流ETF完全由国泰基金管理有限公司开发，本基金与伦敦证券交易所集团公司及其附属企业之 间没有关联，也并非受其发起、背书、出售或推广。FTSE Russell是特定LSE Group公司的商标名称之 一。LSE Group概不对任何人士使用本基金或基础数据承担任何责任 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Banco Macro reported a net income loss of ARS 33.1 billion, a decrease of ARS 191.5 billion compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to higher loan loss provisions and administrative expenses [3][4] - Total comprehensive income for the quarter was an ARS 28.4 billion loss, with net income for the first nine months of 2025 totaling ARS 176.7 billion, down 35% year-on-year [3][4] - The annualized ROE and ROA as of Q3 2025 were 4.5% and 1.5%, respectively [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net operating income before general and administrative expenses was ARS 779.6 billion, down 23% from Q2 2025 [4] - Provision for loan losses increased to ARS 156.8 billion, up 45% from the previous quarter and 424% year-on-year [4] - Net interest income totaled ARS 686.2 billion, a decrease of 7% from Q2 2025 and 8% year-on-year [4][5] - Net fee income was ARS 177.3 billion, down 7% from Q2 2025, with credit card fees decreasing by 22% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Private sector loans increased by 3% quarter-on-quarter and 67% year-on-year, with commercial loans showing significant growth [14][15] - Total deposits increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter, totaling ARS 11.8 trillion, with private sector deposits increasing by 6% [15] - Banco Macro's market share in private sector loans reached 9% as of September 2025 [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The bank aims to grow loans by 35% in real terms and deposits by 25% in real terms for 2026, with a focus on both commercial and consumer sectors [22][38] - The bank is exploring M&A opportunities due to its excess capital of ARS 3.3 trillion, with potential developments expected in the next 12-18 months [31][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the increase in provisions was due to a peak in non-performing loans (NPLs) and unexpected additional expenses [21] - The bank expects the peak of NPLs to occur between October and November, with a cost of risk forecasted to be around 5% in 2026 [29][30] - Management remains optimistic about the bond portfolio performance improving in Q4 2025 [57] Other Important Information - The efficiency ratio deteriorated to 39.1% from 35.9% in Q2 2025, indicating increased operational costs [11] - The non-performing total finance ratio reached 3.02%, with a coverage ratio of 120.87% [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Was the result worse than anticipated? - Management acknowledged that the results were impacted by higher provisions for NPLs and unexpected expenses, along with margin compression due to interest rate fluctuations [21][22] Question: What are the expectations for loan growth next year? - The bank forecasts a 35% growth in loans and a 25% growth in deposits for 2026, with an expected ROE in the low 10s [22][30] Question: Can you provide details on the extra expenses? - The additional expenses were primarily related to early retirement plans that were not anticipated [24] Question: When do you expect the peak of NPLs? - Management expects the peak to occur between October and November, with a cost of risk around 6.5% for Q4 [29][30] Question: What factors will drive deposit growth in 2026? - Positive real interest rates are expected to drive deposit growth, with a forecast of 25% growth in real terms [61] Question: What is the plan for the $400 million bond maturing in 2026? - Management is considering various options, including rolling over the bond or issuing a new senior bond, with a decision expected by mid-2026 [72][74]

Summary of iA Financial Conference Call (November 25, 2025) Company Overview - **Company**: iA Financial (OTCPK: IAFN.F) - **Industry**: Financial Services, specifically focusing on wealth management and insurance Key Points and Arguments Strategic Priorities - **Capital Deployment**: The management emphasizes the importance of capital deployment, particularly following a significant acquisition in the wealth management sector [2][52] - **Organic Growth Initiatives**: Ongoing initiatives are focused on enhancing operational efficiency and improving client experience [2][5] - **IT Investments**: The company has made substantial IT investments over the past few years, aiming to deliver value from these investments [2][3] Financial Performance - **Earnings Growth**: The company has achieved a year-to-date EPS growth of 22%, exceeding the target of 10% [4][9] - **Components of Growth**: The growth is attributed to 6% organic growth and 4% from various initiatives, including acquisitions and share buybacks [4][5] - **US Division Performance**: The US division has seen a 36% increase year-to-date, contributing positively to the overall growth [10][13] Return on Equity (ROE) - **Target ROE**: The company targets a core ROE of 17% and has recently adjusted its guidance upwards due to strong performance [16][22] - **Capital Deployment Impact**: The management notes that an additional billion in capital deployment could contribute approximately 1% to ROE [22] Acquisition Strategy - **Preference for M&A**: The company favors mergers and acquisitions over share buybacks, citing a history of successful acquisitions that have compounded shareholder value [23][24] - **Current Capital Position**: iA Financial has $1.3 billion in excess capital and aims to deploy it effectively rather than accumulating cash [25][27] Market Opportunities - **US Extended Vehicle Warranty Market**: The company is cautious about making large acquisitions in this market until it stabilizes its business model post-COVID [30][32] - **US Life Insurance Market**: The management sees significant potential in the US life insurance market, leveraging their strengths in distribution and management [36][37] Competitive Landscape - **Canadian Market**: The company acknowledges increased competition in Canada but believes it has built a strong infrastructure and distribution relationships that provide a competitive edge [39][40] - **Underinsurance in Canada**: There is a significant opportunity in the Canadian market, with 50% of Canadians being underinsured [40] Future Outlook - **Focus Areas**: The management plans to prioritize capital deployment, optimizing capital structure, and delivering benefits from recent acquisitions in the upcoming year [52] Additional Important Insights - **Revenue Synergies from Acquisitions**: The RF acquisition is expected to provide both revenue and cost synergies, with a focus on improving geographical footprint and recruiting bank advisors [48][49] - **Product Extensions**: The company has launched new savings products in the US to cater to market needs, indicating a proactive approach to product development [38] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the iA Financial conference call, highlighting the company's strategic focus, financial performance, and market opportunities.

Core Insights - The overall valuation of the A-share market is reflected in the PE ratio of 19.91 and PB ratio of 1.56, indicating a relatively high valuation level with a PE percentile of 86.73% [1] - The 10-year government bond yields are significantly different between China (1.82%) and the US (4.05%), suggesting varying risk-free rates impacting investment decisions [1] A-share Major Index Valuation - The PE and PB ratios for major indices show that the ChiNext Index has a high PE of 37.85 and a PB of 4.86, indicating strong growth expectations [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 13.11 and a PB of 1.26, reflecting a more conservative valuation compared to other indices [1] - The CSI 300 Index shows a PE of 13.11 and a PB of 1.26, suggesting it is trading at a reasonable valuation relative to its earnings [1] A-share Major Industry Index Valuation - The computer industry has the highest PE ratio at 201.45, indicating high growth expectations but also potential overvaluation [1] - The banking sector has a low PE of 9.19 and a PB of 0.79, suggesting it may be undervalued compared to other sectors [1] - The real estate sector shows a PE of 59.59 and a PB of 0.97, indicating a mixed valuation with potential risks [1]