Hi, my name is Lorenzo. I'm the director of research for the digital asset team at Arc Invest. I've been in crypto digital assets now for eight, nine years.Uh started my own company in 2018 and then went to work for uh a crypto hedge fund as an analyst and then spent three and a half years uh on the business development side for two different uh D5 protocols. I started uh at ARC in March of 2024. So it's been more than than a year now.And really right now as director of research, my priority is to set the a ...

I know the markets uh are extremely nervous right now, the equity market uh and and the crypto markets especially and uh we think we understand why uh and we also think this too will pass because there are some very shortterm reasons uh mostly having to do with liquidity drying up again very short term associated um with uh treasury and Fed balance sheet or the Treasury general account and the Fed balance sheet primarily. So again, this is shortterm. Uh I don't like what we're hearing from the Fed because I ...

Market Overview & Economic Landscape - ARK CEO Cathie Wood discusses recent market drawdowns and liquidity challenges [1] - The analysis includes insights into fiscal and monetary policies and market indicators [1] - ARK presents an optimistic outlook, anticipating a recovery driven by new technologies and productivity gains [1] Fiscal & Monetary Policy - The discussion covers fiscal policy and the budget deficit [1] - Pro-growth tax policy and innovation are highlighted [1] - Monetary policy and inflation trends are analyzed [1] Investment Strategy & Future Outlook - The role of Bitcoin and crypto assets are considered [1] - The analysis includes discussion of gold, money supply, and historical parallels [1] - Yield curves and deflation signals are examined [1] - The impact of AI on productivity and employment is assessed [1]

Market Analysis & Prediction - Ethereum's market capitalization has the potential to surpass Bitcoin's, drawing a parallel to Wall Street's growth relative to gold after 1971 [1][3] - The shift of assets like stocks and real estate onto the blockchain by 2025 presents a significant opportunity for Ethereum to establish dominance [3] Historical Context & Economic Shift - In 1971, the US dollar transitioned to a fully synthetic currency after Nixon removed it from the gold standard [1][2] - Post-1971, Wall Street's financial products, including money market funds and mortgage-backed securities, contributed to the dollar's dominance, increasing its share from 27% of GDP to 57% of central bank reserves and 80% of financial transaction quotes [2] Asset Comparison - The current market capitalization of equities stands at $40 trillion, while gold's market capitalization is $2 trillion, representing 5% of all available assets [3] Cryptocurrency Positioning - Bitcoin is positioned as digital gold, while Ethereum is expected to mirror Wall Street's growth relative to gold [3]

When we saw this pay package, we had a a a similar reaction to the very first time that Elon proposed a pay package. Our expectations were high and everybody thought we were crazy out there when we put our expectations out there. Uh and in the last package, he accomplished those expectations two years earlier than we expected him to.Just to give you a sense uh if you take sort of the midpoint of the schedule for EBITDA goals that would be a 49% uh compound annual rate of increase in EBITDA. I don't think th ...

Tesla's Compensation Package & Performance - The previous compensation package motivated Elon Musk, achieving expectations two years ahead of schedule [1] - The new package has ambitious targets, requiring a 49% compound annual growth rate in EBITDA over 75 years to reach $210 billion from $11 billion, and 62% to complete the package [1] - The company believes the goals are achievable, especially with the scaling of robo taxis and humanoid robots (Optimus) [1] - The company views the Delaware court decision voiding Elon's 2018 pay package as detrimental to investor rights and Tesla's success [1] - The company emphasizes the importance of incentivizing Elon Musk to maintain a culture of continuous improvement and innovation at Tesla [3] OpenAI Developer Day & Platform Strategy - OpenAI is rapidly innovating and shipping new products, turning ChatGPT into a robust platform with an application developer kit [4] - OpenAI's developer tools allow developers to create agentic behavior within ChatGPT, leveraging its distribution to 800 million weekly active users [4] - The company is creating tools for developers to wireframe agents, which involves chaining together different LLM actions to create a full agentic type experience [5][6] - The company's framework makes it easier to develop on OpenAI but harder to switch to other platforms, potentially stabilizing their API business [6] Prediction Markets & Trade - The company is analyzing the potential impact of 100% tariffs on China by November 1st, with the market currently at a 13% chance [7] - Prediction markets offer a way to hedge risks and surface information that might not otherwise be available in the market [7][8]

We think we'll see a manufacturing boom in the United States for the first time really in 30 years. The rest of that time, certainly since China went into the UTO in uh the early 2000s, manufacturing has been effectively gutted from the United States. This is going to be a real turnaround.And we do think that this manufacturing while of course it's going to increase employment to some extent uh it is going to be highly automated uh with AI robotics humanoid robots and other robots and we're probably going t ...

Welcome to the brainstorm episode 104. We're continuing on the AI bubble and is it uh selling to your customers and funding it yourself. We've got how to make money on the way to AGI and we've got some new benchmarks that are they showing us the future or are they just other things that we're going to measure incorrectly and then saturate until new benchmarks come out? Uh Brett, why don't you tee up the first one? Uh AMD, OpenAI, how are they uh feeding each other? Yeah. So, kind of similar to the Nvidia de ...

If we're right, GDP growth could slow a bit more, but will turn around and we will enter into a a a real growth trajectory driven by productivity in the 5% range. And we believe that in that range, 5% plus or minus that unlike in past recoveries, it will be sustained. You can see in the past when productivity has recovered, usually after a recession, it settles back down.This time we don't think that's going to be the case. ...

On episode LXXII of "In The Know" (October 3, 2025), ARK CEO/CIO Cathie Wood delves into the current economic landscape amidst a government shutdown, highlighting the surprising resilience of the stock market. She discusses significant employment revisions, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. Cathie also explores the potential for a productivity-driven economic boom, the challenges in the housing market, and the evolving role of technology and innovation in shap ...