Bitcoin and Crypto Market Risks - Bitcoin market is subject to rapid changes and uncertainty, with investments potentially susceptible to fraud and manipulation due to a lack of regulation [1] - Bitcoin investments carry unique risks, including price volatility, lack of liquidity, and theft [1] - ARK strongly encourages investors to consult with a financial professional before investing in Bitcoin or any other digital asset [2] Tether (USDT) and Stablecoins - USDT was created in 2014 to facilitate the movement of digital dollars across exchanges at the same speed and low friction as Bitcoin [11] - USDT's initial version ran on the Bitcoin layer (Omnilayer) before Ethereum became prominent [15] - Tether's USDT market cap grew from $4-6 billion at the beginning of 2020 to over $40 billion by the end of 2020, reaching $163 billion currently [18][19] - USDT's utility expanded from pure crypto trading to real-world applications, especially in emerging markets where it serves as a digital dollar alternative [20] - Tether holds more than 130 billion US dollars in US Treasuries, over 90 tons of gold, and more than 100,000 Bitcoin as part of its reserves [45][46] - Tether's reserves are more than 103% collateralized, with $2 billion more in liquid assets than the total outstanding USDT tokens [47] - Tether has a gold-backed stablecoin called Tether Gold (XAUt), valued at 800 million US dollars [52] Regulatory and Transparency - Tether releases quarterly attestations by BDO, a top-five auditing firm, to independently confirm its reserves [55] - Tether is incorporated in El Salvador and regulated under its regulatory regime for stablecoins [56] - Tether works with over 250 law enforcement agencies across more than 50 countries [57] - Tether guarantees the value of its stable currency, with every USDT redeemable for 1 US dollar minus redemption fees of 10 basis points [57] Future Plans and Market Dynamics - Tether is exploring new products for developed markets, including the US, to bring new utility to users beyond the existing stablecoin model [59] - The Genius Act has opened the door for banks and institutions to launch stablecoins, increasing competition in the market [58] - Commodity traders are increasingly using USDT to close commodity trading deals due to its widespread adoption and stickiness in emerging markets [59] - Stablecoins can eliminate inefficiencies in the transaction process, reducing both costs and time, which are particularly beneficial in emerging markets [59]

FDA Regulation and Drug Approval - The FDA's drug and biological approvals, including gene therapies, are under scrutiny following the departure of Dr Assad [3] - The FDA commissioner aims to recalibrate standards for more efficient regulatory pathways, leveraging AI and big data to improve the drug approval process [10][11] - The industry anticipates the incoming head of the division handling biologics to share the same priorities of improving the FDA and facilitating innovation [12] - The FDA is considering approving rare disease therapies at the first sign of promise, recognizing the lack of meaningful disease-modifying options for these patients [19] Gene Therapy and Clinical Trials - A gene therapy from Sarepta Therapeutics for Duchenne muscular dystrophy faced safety concerns due to patient deaths, leading to a temporary halt of shipments [4][5] - Patient advocacy groups expressed devastation over losing the gene therapy option, which could potentially halt or reverse disease progression [6] - Acute liver failure was linked to the deaths of teenage boys in the Sarepta Therapeutics trial, potentially due to higher doses per kilogram in older patients [13][14] - AI can be embedded into clinical trials to simulate and explore avenues, potentially preventing patient deaths and improving the success rate of getting the right drugs to the right patients faster [16][17] Genomics and AI - The industry is excited about the potential of gene editing for common diseases like cardiovascular disease, building on the proof of concept in rare diseases [21] - CRISPR Therapeutics is developing gene editing therapies targeting genes involved in liver metabolism to address cardiovascular disease [22] - Advances in AI are unlocking new possibilities in genomics, enabling better target design, faster pre-clinical studies, and improved clinical trial design [30][31][32]

We probably are going to see interest rate cuts in the future. I think the the the odds for a rate cut in September are up to 88% and a 50 basis point rate cut maybe they're up to 25% or so. So we think that will resolve positively as well.That's the one uncertainty. And the reason this matters is if people think rates are going to come down, then they're going to wait and see how low they go before they take major actions or make big purchases. So getting back to some kind of equilibrium is going to be imp ...

Hi, I'm Charles Roberts, uh, chief investment strategist and head of venture at ARC. Uh, backgroundwise, I was a surgeon, then moved into being a biotech entrepreneur, founded several different biotech companies, including mainly at the intersection between AI and genomics. At ARC, uh, primarily I lead venture where we have a broad deep tech portfolio across private and some public companies.I work on both strategic side and day-to-day operational management leadership of the team and working very closely w ...

Economic Outlook - The employment report is weaker than expected due to downward revisions, raising recession fears, but the analysis suggests a "rolling recession" [2] - The expectation is for a strong recovery, possibly starting as a "rolling recovery", with upside surprises in real growth and productivity, and downside surprises on inflation by the midterm elections next year [5][6] - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly concerning Russia-Ukraine, China, and Mexico, but the biggest uncertainty is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy [7][8] Fiscal Policy - Year-to-date deficit as a percentage of GDP has shrunk from approximately 73% to 62% [10] - Tariffs are annualizing at an estimated $450 billion per year, potentially leading to a deficit of roughly 47% of GDP [10] - The analysis suggests that the deficit as a percentage of GDP could reach 3% by the end of 2026, two years ahead of the Treasury Secretary's objective [11][12] - Approximately 75% of capital spending will benefit from permanent expensing, which is expected to attract manufacturing back to the United States and boost productivity [18] - Factoring in expensing, the US corporate tax rate could effectively drop to the 12-14% range [19] Monetary Policy - Despite Chairman Powell's hawkish tone, the data suggests the Fed may ease, with odds for a rate cut in September up to 88% and a 50 basis point rate cut at approximately 25% [4] - Real private domestic final sales are growing at approximately 1%, indicating cautious consumer behavior and a rising savings rate, potentially crossing 5% this year [21][22] - The 2-year Treasury yield less the 3-month Treasury yield is below zero, indicating restrictive monetary policy, which historically precedes recessions [26] - Truflation, which measures thousands of items in real time, suggests that inflation may stabilize and then decline towards or below 2% [33][24] Market Indicators - Economic policy uncertainty reached unprecedented levels during tariff turmoil, even higher than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [36] - Revisions to non-farm payrolls were extreme, typically seen only in recessions, confirming the "rolling recession" [47] - Federal government employees are down by 84000 year-to-date, with an expected additional 150000 layoffs by the end of September, potentially impacting consumer confidence [48][49] - The consumer confidence index shows a decline in jobs being easy to get, suggesting potential economic weakness [51][52]

Company Vision & Strategy - ARK Invest was founded to move away from benchmark-sensitive strategies towards investing in companies driving technological revolution [1][2] - The company aims to fulfill an unmet need by focusing on companies transforming the world [2] Investment Focus - The firm emphasizes investment in companies that are shaping the future through technological advancements [2] - ARK Invest believes in the importance of investing in companies that will "make the new world work" [2]

Layer 2 Scaling Solutions - Ethereum layer 2 solutions have reduced transaction costs by 10-20x, leading to over 85% of Ethereum transactions occurring on these cheaper layer 2s [2][3] - Base, incubated by Coinbase, dominates layer 2 activity, accounting for over 50% of active users, transactions, and revenue [6] - Competition in the layer 2 space is increasing with Kraken announcing INC, Robinhood launching its own layer 2 on the Arbitrum stack, and Securityize partnering with Athena to launch Converge [6][7] - Worldcoin is also building its layer 2 on the Optimism stack [8] Decentralized Applications (dApps) and Exchanges (DEXs) - Spot volume of decentralized applications has more than doubled, approaching 20% of the market share compared to centralized counterparts [9] - Decentralized exchanges are 5-10x more efficient than centralized exchanges, achieving similar volume with significantly fewer employees [11] - Decentralized exchange volume has continued to increase, reaching 25-30% of centralized exchange volume [12] Solana's Performance and Developer Activity - Solana has experienced a significant turnaround, achieving 4-5x greater transaction throughput than Ethereum and its layer 2s combined, reaching almost 800 TPS [14] - Solana has surpassed Ethereum in attracting net new crypto developers [15] - Solana is focused on improving its base layer with upgrades like Fire Dancer and Alpenlow [19]

Market Dynamics - The market is different now, more institutional-driven than retail-driven [1] - The biggest change from the last cycle is the spot ETF [1] - There are spot ETFs for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and ETH [2] - Hybrid private fund ETFs exist for SOL and other assets [2] - The inflows into these assets are very large relative to their size [2]

Coinbase's Base Ecosystem - Coinbase is developing the Base ecosystem with three components: Base chain (Layer 2 for performance), Base build (developer toolkit), and Base app (non-custodial wallet)[1][2][3] - The Base app aims to onboard more users to the Base ecosystem by integrating trading, USDC transfers, and content creation features [4][5] - Base app integrates NFTs via Zora protocol and social feeds via Farcaster, creating a hybrid platform resembling TikTok, Twitter, and a trading/payment app [7][8][9][10] Market Competition and Trends - The market is moving towards tying real-time news and content to financial markets [17][18] - Integrating social media and financial news is in the experimentation phase, with prediction markets showing product-market fit [28][29] - Real-time news from social media platforms is becoming integral to trading, as users on these platforms often have news before major outlets [30] Retail and Institutional Involvement - The current crypto market is more institutional-driven due to the spot ETFs for major cryptocurrencies [24] - Retail involvement is not yet significant, as indicated by the performance of altcoins and Google search trends [25][26]

People make the difference. Meet Stuart Forbes, sharing his background and how he's contributing to ARK's mission. ...