Consumer Spending - Consumer spending had been very strong but may finally be slowing down [2] - Credit card companies indicate consumer spending is at a healthy level, though not growing rapidly [2] - GDP data aligns with expectations of a consumer spending slowdown, but interpretation is difficult due to swings in net exports [4] - The industry is closely watching consumer spending, along with the labor market and inflation [5] Labor Market - Private sector job creation has decreased, potentially close to zero based on QCEW adjustment [7] - The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a balance between slowing demand and supply of workers [7] - Immigration policy has slowed the flow into the labor force [8] - Wages are gradually cooling, and vacancies to unemployment ratios have been stable [9] - The labor market is solid but faces downside risks due to declining demand and supply [9] Delinquencies - Bank earnings calls indicate good credit performance [3] - High-end delinquencies are noted, but their significance is unclear [3]

Hi, Chair Pal. Uh, Nancy Marshall Gendzer with Marketplace. Um, one more question on the, uh, lack of unonymity in today's decision, the two descents.Was there talk during the meeting, I know you're not going to talk about what exactly what individuals said, but in general, was there talk during the meeting of cutting rates and what was the case against that at the meeting. >> Sure. So you know we have we have an economic goaround where people talk about the economy and then the next and today that's yester ...

Economic Activity & Demand - Final sales to private domestic purchasers slowed to a 12% gain in Q2 from 19% in Q1, suggesting softening underlying demand [1] - First half profit domestic final purchases were 16%, while GDP was 12% for the same period [3] - GDP is considered bumpy quarter to quarter and often gets revised [3] Labor Market - The unemployment rate is at 41% [4] - Wages are at a healthy level, moving closer to long-run sustainable levels consistent with productivity and 2% inflation [4] - The labor market is still quite solid [4] Inflation - Headline inflation was 21% and core inflation was 25% [2] - Inflation is above target, even ignoring tariffs [5] Monetary Policy - The speaker is trying to do the right thing in a challenging situation, being pulled in two directions [5] - At some point, if risks are equally balanced, a neutral policy stance would be desirable, which is not the case currently [6] - The speaker is not committing to a rate cut in September and will need to see more data on inflation and employment [2][6] - Judgments will be based on all data and a balance of risks analysis [6]

Hi, Mr. . Chairman. Jay O'Brien, ABC News.President Trump has obviously invoked your name a lot. He has personally pressured you. Are you concerned the way that conduct might impact the Fed's independence going forward.I'll just say that um so I I think that having an independent central bank has been an institutional arrangement that has served the public well and as long as it serves the public well, it should continue and be respected. If it didn't serve the public well, then then it wouldn't be somethin ...

Claire Jones, Financial Times. Um, just a question on the dollar. We've seen it decline quite heavily this year.I was wondering if there's been any discussion about that at the meetings and how to what degree that may be complicating your attempts to get inflation back to target. Thank you. >> So, this this goes back to the division of labor between the Fed and the Treasury, as you I'm sure know. and you know that that the the Treasury only uh speaks to the speaks to the dollar. Um it's not it's not somethi ...

Hi, Chair Pal. Thank you. Uh well, can you give us a little more about what kind of economic data does the Fed need to see before uh you'll be ready to cut.I mean, do you need inflation back nearly to target. Uh are there other things in the pricing that you look for. Do you need to see weakening in the job market.What kind of things are you are you looking for. I mean, ultimately, it's it could be any could be any of those things, right. But but you know if you saw that the risks to the two goals were movi ...

Tourism Industry Concerns - US hotel industry is negatively impacted by the deficit in international visitors compared to 2019 levels, affecting employees and overall business [1] - While global hotel businesses are maintaining revenue through travelers visiting other destinations like Mexico and Asia, US hotels are missing out on Canadian and European visitors [3] Factors Affecting US Tourism - Economic weakness in other countries and geopolitical concerns are potential factors contributing to the decline in international visitors to the US [2][4] - A strong US dollar is not the primary reason for the decline, as the dollar has decreased, making visits more affordable for foreigners [4] Impediments to Tourism Growth - Lengthy passport control lines at US entry points, such as JFK, deter potential visitors and negatively impact their experience [5] - Negative experiences at immigration and passport control can discourage future visits and spread negative word-of-mouth [5]

Uh, thanks, Mr. . Chairman. Uh, Andrew Ekerman with the Washington Post.Um, what message do you take from the fact that inflation hit 2.1% last September and has bounced higher since. Um, why do you think financial conditions are restrictive and a neutral rates below 4% when inflation has stopped falling for almost a year. >> So, inflation when you when you talk about these 12-month inflation measures, you're you're always battling uh residual seasonality.So we'll have for example two months of high inflati ...

Nick Timmeros, the Wall Street Journal. Chair Pal, my question is about what have you learned over the last few months about the inflation generating and price pass through process. And just to drill down, the June CPI report showed evidence of tariff induced goods inflation.Now, the tariff landscape uh is only starting to be settled with some of these more recent deals. Given the lags between when tariffs are announced and when they show up in goods prices, is two months a long enough horizon to evaluate t ...

So, there's some counterprogramming going on here at the White House, it seems. A trio of fact sheets just being released, saying the president has signed some executive orders on trade, formalizing some moves, some of which he had threatened, some of which are new. The first is the president says he's going to be revoking entirely the dimminimous threshold for all packages coming in from abroad.It'll be taking effect at the end of August. Now, this is something that will affect companies like Sheen and Tam ...