Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - Consumption growth has slowed significantly, from 3% last year to only 1% this year, marking the first two descents since 1993 focused on consumer behavior and the labor market [1] - With inflation around 2-4% and short rates at 43%, the Fed's monetary policy is considered too restrictive, suggesting potential for more rate cuts than the dot plot indicates [1] Geopolitical Risks & US-China Relations - Despite potential diplomatic efforts, both the US and China are reportedly preparing for potential conflict over Taiwan [1] - The exchange of Nvidia H20 chips for rare earth magnets is viewed as a questionable transaction, potentially enabling China's military advancements [1] - Concessions to China are seen as enabling the modernization of their combat forces, particularly in AI capabilities [1] US-Russia Relations & Sanctions - President Trump is setting a deadline for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, threatening stricter sanctions if no progress is made [1] - The US has the ability to impose more impactful sanctions on Russia by targeting remaining foreign correspondent banks that facilitate dollar transactions [2][3]

Thank you. Colobby Smith with the uh New York Times. Um two of your colleagues called for a quarter point cut today and I'm wondering what aspects of their argument were most compelling to you and how you're weighing their views against those um on the committee who as of the June forecast uh were in the camp of the Fed holding interest rate study uh for the remainder of the year.Um and and just in terms of the the June SEP in particular, is that still the best representation of where the core of the commit ...

Economic Activity & GDP - GDP and Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP) numbers aligned with expectations [1] - Economic activity data, including GDP and PDFP, slowed to slightly above 1%, specifically 1.2% for GDP in the first half of the year, compared to 25% the previous year, indicating a slowdown [2] Labor Market - Labor market remains balanced across various statistics, including quits, job openings, and the unemployment rate, similar to levels from a year prior [3] - Job creation is slowing, but so is the supply of workers, maintaining a labor market balance, though this balance is due to declines in both supply and demand, suggesting downside risk [4] - The primary focus is on inflation and maximum employment, with the labor market appearing solid [5] - Downside risks to the labor market are apparent [5] - Equilibrium job growth should be assessed by monitoring the unemployment rate, as both demand and supply for workers are decreasing in tandem [6] Monetary Policy & Inflation - Weakness in interest-sensitive sectors like residential investment and commercial structures raises questions about whether monetary policy is too restrictive [1] - Inflation remains above target, even when excluding tariff effects, justifying the current monetary policy stance [5]

Thank you, Mr. . Chairman. Um, you took out the word or the notion that uncertainty has diminished from this statement.Does that mean uncertainty has increased. And I'm just wondering, the administration has struck several deals with uh large trading partners where it seems like we now know what the rate is going to be. Does knowing that rate add to your certainty to change policy or do you need to wait to see the economic effects.So um essentially the the the statement in the in the um in the in our statem ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave the policy interest rate unchanged, believing the current stance is well-positioned to respond to potential economic developments [2] - The committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4 and 1/4 to 4 and 1/2% and to continue reducing the size of the balance sheet [8] - The current policy stance is seen as appropriate to guard against inflation risks [10] Economic Activity - Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has moderated [3] - GDP rose at a 12% pace in the first half of this year, down from 25% last year [3] - Payroll job gains averaged 150000 per month over the past 3 months, with the unemployment rate at 41% remaining low [4] - Business investment in equipment and intangibles picked up from last year's pace, while activity in the housing sector remains weak [4] Inflation - Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to the 2% longer-run goal [5] - Total PCE prices rose 25% over the 12 months ending in June, and core PCE prices rose 27% [6] - Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up on balance over the course of this year on news about tariffs [7] - Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen [9] Labor Market - Conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment [5] - Wage growth has continued to moderate while still outpacing inflation [5]

to our panel on this. So, we got what we expected, Francis. We got no cut.Okay. We got two descents from Fed governors. First time since 1993, before you were born even.Okay. I wish this this descent happened. What is Jerome Powell going to do at the next few meetings.Cuz he's on his way out and his legacy is I don't want to say on the line, but what he does is kind of how we're going to remember him because that's how things work. I might take a step back and say there's so much focus right now on Chair Po ...

Yeah. So, look, public health is slow to respond with tobacco and cigarettes, with heroin, cocaine, opioids. We don't want to get caught flatfooted again.There is a new there's a product that's a synthetic product in the vape stores that are popping up on every corner in America. And we want to educate people about that product. It's called 7.It has many other names. Sometimes it has the name 7 Omega or 7 metrogenine. And it is a synthetic byproduct of theratom plant.And the compounds in the cratom plant, w ...

Uh thanks thanks Chel. Um there's a lot of lean in the markets uh and not to mention uh out of the administration for a rate cut now in September. Uh is that uh expectation unrealistic at this point.So as you know today we decided to leave our policy rate where it's been which where I would characterize as modestly restrictive. Um inflation is running a bit above 2% as I mentioned even excluding tariff effects. The labor market's solid, historically low unemployment, financial conditions are accommodative, ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range at 425 to 450 basis points [1] - Two governors dissented, favoring a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - Nine votes supported holding rates steady [2] Economic Outlook - Economic growth moderated in the first half of the year [3] - Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated [3][4] - Inflation remains somewhat elevated [4] - The labor market is solid with low unemployment [4] Forward Guidance - The statement does not hint at an imminent rate cut in September [5] - The committee is attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate [4] - Swings in exports continue to affect the data [2]

Hey, Brian. So, there's some counterprogramming going on here at the White House. It seems a trio of fact sheets just being released, saying the president has signed some executive orders on trade, formalizing some moves, some of which he had threatened, some of which are new.The first is the president says he's going to be revoking entirely the dimminimous threshold for all packages coming in from abroad. It'll be taking effect at the end of August. Now, this is something that will affect companies like Sh ...