对每一位创业者来说，这些绝非遥远的新闻，在AI超级周期的洪流中，无论是巨头还是初创公司，都卷入了一场全新的淘汰赛。资本疯狂下注，技术日新月异，团 队身价暴涨……这一切都预示着，未来几年，谁能活下来、活得更好，将取决于你能否踩中产业变革的主线。 本周末，科技圈被两则重磅新闻刷屏：一则是Google以24亿美元收购AI初创公司Windsurf的核心团队及技术资产，进一步加码顶尖人才和前沿算法的"军备竞赛"； 另一则是马斯克旗下xAI新一轮融资后估值跃升至2000亿美元…… 这不只是科技巨头又一次"买买买"。新闻背后，是AI产业格局的巨变——资本与技术成为新的武器，巨头加速跑马圈地，新王者不断涌现，旧格局土崩瓦解，整个 行业似乎正在迎来洗牌。 不久前，2025年Coatue EMW（East Meets West）年会，Coatue 发布了2025年的主旨报告，结合最新行业动态，系统梳理了AI革命的关键趋势、产业链重构逻辑，以 及创业者如何在这场技术红利与竞争浪潮中找到自己的"生存之道"。 锦秋基金（公众号：锦秋集；ID：jqcapital）认为，这份报告也在一定程度上解释了诸如Google 收编Windsurf， ...

ASIC 芯片近况交流 20250709 摘要 谷歌 2025 年预计芯片总出货量接近 200 万颗，其中 TPU V5 系列 （V5E 和 V5P）占 140 万颗，TPU V6 系列（V6E 和 V6P）预计出货 50-60 万颗，V6E 预计出货 40 万颗左右，V6P 预计出货 10~20 万颗。 谷歌的推理任务占比约 70%，训练任务占比约 30%，导致训练芯片（P 系列）需求量少于推理芯片（E 系列），训练芯片与推理芯片数量比大 约为 2:1。 博通的收费模式包括流片费用、IP 版税等前期研发费用，以及量产后的 芯片价格和售后技术支持费用。百万级别出货时毛利率接近 60%，远高 于传统设计服务企业，因其参与程度深且设计复杂度高。 谷歌是博通目前最大的客户，占博通营收接近 80%。TPU V5E 平均价 格在 3,000~3,500 美元之间，V5P 价格较高，大约在 6,000 美元左右。 TPU 使用 PCB 板层数较多，通常达到 30 层甚至更高，并采用 HDI 多层 载板，以及中板和接口卡。TPU 数据带宽要求高，通常使用 800G 光模 块，而英伟达 GPU 常用 400G 光模块。 Op ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI boom continues to reshape the global economic landscape, with Nvidia's market capitalization reaching $4 trillion, marking a historic milestone in the tech industry since the AI wave began in late 2022 with the launch of ChatGPT [1][3]. Company Performance - Nvidia's stock price rose by 2.5% to $163.9 per share at the opening on July 9, 2023, closing at $162.9, with a total market cap of $3.97 trillion, nearing the $4 trillion mark [3]. - Nvidia's revenue for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year reached $44.06 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, with net profit of $18.78 billion, up 26% [4]. - Nvidia's stock has seen a cumulative increase of over 1000% since the beginning of 2023, with a 20% rise since April 2025 [3][4]. Market Position - Nvidia remains the leading supplier of AI chips for AI servers, with its data center business generating $39.1 billion in revenue, accounting for 89% of total revenue, and growing 73% year-over-year [6]. - The global data center market was valued at $250 billion in the previous year, growing at an annual rate of 20% to 25%, supporting Nvidia's valuation [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict Nvidia's market cap could reach $6 trillion, with a target price increase from $175 to $250 per share, driven by the anticipated "golden wave" of generative AI adoption [4]. - Nvidia is entering a "decade-long AI infrastructure buildout period," with significant growth opportunities in AI and robotics, representing a multi-trillion dollar market [6]. Challenges - Nvidia faces competition from self-developed chips by major tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, which could reduce reliance on Nvidia's products [8]. - The company is also challenged by the rise of low-cost AI models and restrictions on sales to China, which previously accounted for 25% of its global sales [7][8]. - Concerns about quantum computing advancements pose a potential risk, with some experts suggesting breakthroughs could occur within 5 to 7 years, potentially surpassing Nvidia's current technology [8].

我们讲过很多关于GPU vs ASIC的内容，前几天还发过这样一张图，国外大厂的研发进度规划。 下面的数据是HSBC统计的，我只列出了统计的部分数据，星球中我们把各大投行日常研报中的关键 数据都做了记录，有兴趣的朋友可以到星球中查看。 | Chip supplier | Chip type | Chip name | Design partner | Release date | Tech | Memory type | Capacity (GB) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | NVIDIA (Global) | Al GPU | A100 | In - House | 2020 | node 7nm | HBM2e 8 High | 80 | | NVIDIA (Global) | AI GPU | H100 | In - House | 2022 | 4nm | HBM3 8 High | 80 | | NVIDIA (Global) | AI GPU | B100 | In - House | 2024 | 4nm | HBM ...

几天前，英伟达再一次创造了历史。 7 月 3 日，英伟达市值短暂攀上 3.92 万亿美元，超越了苹果此前保持的 3.915 万亿美元纪录，成为有史以来市值最高的上市公司。AI 算力的狂飙猛进，把 这家 GPU 厂商推向了前所未有的高点。 尤其是自 2024 年底，性能与能效双双跃进的 Blackwell 平台开始出货后的销售表现，打破了外界的疑虑，英伟达创始人兼 CEO 黄仁勋在最新财报电话会议 上表示，仅在 2025 年第一季度，这套新平台就已经贡献了英伟达数据中心收入的近七成。 但就在英伟达市值冲顶、光环加身之时，来自生态内部的裂缝也在浮现。最典型的例子，正是英伟达的重要客户—— OpenAI。几乎就在英伟达市值达到高 峰的同时，The Information 援引 OpenAI 内部人士称，OpenAI 正在使用谷歌自主研发的 TPU 芯片来为 ChatGPT 及其其他产品提供算力支持。 TPU 服务器，图/谷歌 虽然后续的回应中 OpenAI 刻意淡化了「转向」，强调是测试且「暂无大规模采用计划」。但对于一家曾亲手定义 AI 新时代的公司来说，哪怕只是「测 试」，也足以引发市场的高度敏感。 与此同时， ...

2025年的二季度已经结束，GB200也已经开始大规模的出货，各个机构也调高了GB200的出货预期。用一句话总结今年的AI服务器市场就是：NVIDIA 领跑，ASIC崛起。 根据Bernstein的数据，2024-2026年，全球服务器市场预计以3%的年复合增长率（CAGR）稳步增长，到2026年规模将逼近4000亿美元。而AI服务器无疑 是这波增长的核心动力，其在整体服务器市场的占比将从2024年的低个位数跃升至2026年的高个位数。 具体来看，2024年全球服务器出货量同比增长4%，未来两年增速略有放缓，但AI服务器的出货量却保持两位数增长。特别是高端GPU服务器（每台配 备8个以上GPU，比如NVIDIA的GB200和GB300机架），2025年预计增长超50%，2026年也有低20%的增幅。2025年全球将部署约450万个NVIDIA GPU 芯片，这数字直接反映了AI服务器需求的火爆。 更有意思的是，高端AI服务器的平均售价（ASP）因NVIDIA下一代Rubin芯片的引入而水涨船高。这不仅推高了市场规模，也让整个供应链嗅到了巨大 商机。 NVIDIA服务器 GB200在2025年第二季度开始量产， ...

Group 1 - Industrial Fulian's preliminary forecast for Q2 2025 indicates a net profit of 6.727 billion to 6.927 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.72% to 52.11% [2] - The company reported that AI server revenue grew over 60% compared to the same period last year, highlighting its leading position in core product shares among major clients [2] - Despite the traditional off-season for consumer electronics in Q2, the strong growth in AI contributed to a significant overall profit increase [2] Group 2 - The AI industry chain, including sectors like server ODM, PCB, and IC manufacturing, is experiencing high growth rates, with some companies seeing accelerated performance in recent months [3] - Demand for ASICs is also rising, with Broadcom holding a 55% to 60% market share, and its financial reports indicate that ASIC business is a core growth driver [3] - Google has launched its seventh-generation TPU, which can achieve computing power 24 times that of the fastest supercomputer globally, indicating strong demand for AI accelerators [3] Group 3 - The A-share market is witnessing rapid growth in sectors like PCB and optical modules, alongside a new wave of investment expansion [5] - Companies like Huadian Co. are planning significant investments, such as 3.6 billion yuan for new projects, to enhance production capacity [5] - The AI wave is expected to continue driving growth in the industry chain, with recommendations for strategic investments in related sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market is expected to experience tight supply and demand until 2027, driven by technological iterations and AI demand, with SK Hynix and Micron leading the market due to their technological and capacity advantages [1][2]. Supply and Demand Trends - HBM supply tightness is projected to persist through 2027, with a gradual easing of oversupply expected in 2026-2027. Channel inventory is anticipated to increase by 1-2 weeks, reaching a healthy level [2]. - The delay in Samsung's HBM certification and the strong demand growth from NVIDIA's Rubin GPU are the main factors contributing to the current supply-demand tension [2]. - HBM4 supply is expected to significantly increase by 2026, accounting for 30% of total bit supply, with HBM4 and HBM4E combined expected to exceed 70% by 2027 [2]. Demand Drivers - HBM bit demand is forecasted to accelerate again in 2027, primarily driven by the Vera Rubin GPU and AMD MI400 [3]. - From 2024 to 2027, the CAGR for bit demand from ASICs, NVIDIA, and AMD is projected to exceed 50%, with NVIDIA expected to dominate demand growth [3]. - Sovereign AI demand is emerging as a key structural driver, with various countries investing heavily in national AI infrastructure to ensure data sovereignty and security [3]. Pricing and Cost Structure - Recent discussions around HBM pricing are influenced by Samsung's aggressive pricing strategy to capture market share in HBM3E and HBM4 [4]. - HBM4 is expected to have a price premium of 30-40% over HBM3E12Hi to compensate for higher costs, with logic chip costs being a significant factor [4]. Market Landscape - SK Hynix is expected to lead the HBM market, while Micron is likely to gain market share due to its capacity expansion efforts in Taiwan and Singapore [5]. - Micron's HBM revenue grew by 50% quarter-over-quarter, with a revenue run rate of $1.5 billion, indicating a stronger revenue-capacity conversion trend compared to Samsung [6]. Industry Impact - HBM is driving the DRAM industry into a five-year upcycle, with HBM expected to account for 19% of DRAM revenue in 2024 and 56% by 2030 [7]. - The average selling price (ASP) of DRAM is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3% from 2025 to 2030, primarily driven by the increasing sales proportion of HBM [7]. - Capital expenditures for HBM are expected to continue growing, as memory manufacturers focus on expanding capacity to meet rising HBM demand [7].

【DT新材料】 获 悉 ， 6 月 25日， 科思创 宣 布 其 台 湾 彰 化 基 地 医 疗 级 热 塑 性 聚 氨 酯 （ TPU ） Desmopan® Rx系列产品正式投产。 彰化基地成为继北美新马丁斯维尔基地后， 科思创全球第二个 获医疗级TPU生产资质的工厂 ，将通过本地化供应，填补亚太市场对高性能医疗材料日益增长的市 场需求。 | 全体大会 高分子产业年会(全体大会) · 政策发展 · 市场分析 · 投融资 · 供应链 · Al赋能 2025"新塑奖"评选颁奖盛典 | 七大论坛 第一届具身机器人创新 第一届AI消费电子 载十居中国国际工程朝对 制造论坛 材料论坛 产业创新大会 · 谐波减速器·轻量化结构件 · ·关键单体 · ·特种工程塑料 ·热管理·桑性显示·外观设计 · 轻量化·Al融合 · 电子皮肤 · 关节齿轮 · 灵巧手腱绳 ·特种聚烯烃 ··特种弹性体 ·光学高分子 ·医用高分子 第一届新能源领域创新 材料论坛 ·新能源高分子·创新助剂 第三届高分子电磁复合 ·光伏胶膜·背板·边框·电池包 材料应用开发大会 ·智能制造 ·聚合物电解质·薄膜电容器 · 高频高速PCB · 5.5G/ ...

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet is positioned as the best investment choice among the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, with significant potential upside in various sectors including search, AI infrastructure, autonomous driving, and quantum computing [1]. Group 1: Search and Advertising - Concerns about AI chatbots replacing traditional search are prevalent, but AI queries are more expensive to run compared to traditional searches, which supports Alphabet's ad-supported search model [3]. - Alphabet's dominance in search is reinforced by its ownership of distribution channels, including the Android operating system and Chrome browser, as well as revenue-sharing agreements with Apple and other browsers [3]. - The company has built one of the largest digital advertising platforms, with user-friendly self-serve ad tools that cater to businesses of all sizes [4]. Group 2: Monetization Opportunities - Currently, only about 20% of Alphabet's searches include ads, indicating substantial room for growth in monetization [5]. - New AI-powered features like "Shop by AI" and virtual try-ons are being introduced, enhancing user experience and creating additional monetization avenues [5]. - The integration of AI and traditional search is likely to be complementary, with many users expected to continue using free, ad-based search options [6]. Group 3: Cloud Computing - Google Cloud is experiencing significant growth, with a 28% increase in revenue and a 142% surge in operating income last quarter [7]. - The Vertex AI platform is attracting customers for building and managing AI models, while Alphabet's Gemini foundational model provides a competitive edge [8]. - Custom-built Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) are designed to optimize AI workloads, offering both power and energy efficiency compared to traditional GPUs [9]. Group 4: Future Technologies - Alphabet is entering the AI chip market with the launch of Ironwood, a TPU designed for inference, which is expected to grow significantly [11]. - Waymo, Alphabet's autonomous driving subsidiary, is expanding rapidly and has shown strong usage metrics, indicating a promising future despite current unprofitability [12]. - The company is also making strides in quantum computing with its Willow chip, which has demonstrated a significant reduction in error rates [13]. Group 5: Valuation - Alphabet is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just over 18 times 2025 analyst estimates, suggesting it is undervalued compared to its market position [14]. - The company holds leading positions across multiple sectors, making it an attractive option for long-term investors seeking a technology leader at a reasonable price [15].