打新平台与项目分析 - Buidlpad 上的 @MMTFinance 项目问题本质是参与者过多导致资源分配不足[1] - Buidlpad 推出创业板 Vibe，可能存在一定的 alpha 机会[1] - 中文区域买盘和资金量过大，对打新阶段的资源分配造成压力[1] 市场趋势与周期 - 公平发射到 VC 币再到公平发射的周期切换速度加快，以往三个月以上的周期现在缩短到一个甚至几周[1] - 以 Bsc meme 为代表的新一轮，一个月内市值从 4 美元增长到 500 million 美元，达到天花板位置[1]

昨天看到这个 @GoKiteAI 上 Launchpool 的公告，还是挺惊喜的。没有第一时间出来说主要是因为昨天有点感冒，这会儿睡多了就精神了。当然，消息出来之后多单肯定是短期收到了打击的，好在大部分仓位在 16-18 跑了一波（频道里有说）长期来说，占了一个 Launchpool 身位肯定是好事，币安很久没有放出的 Pool 确实是表达了一种认可，可以想象的是之后 Kite 或许也会和 币安 进行一些更深度的合作如 USDT / USDC / 稳定币冲提等支持，短期来说客观上增加了抛压，跌了一波在我的预期之内。后续无非就是更多交易所的利好大饼挺颓势的，KITE 能在这个时间点发出来算是一种保守策略，我们无法预测到底几个月后是否还会有圣诞行情，但至少这个小周期里能挑在这个时间发币来到稳定 1B+ 的市值已经是很不错的表现，空投方面从用户角度来说当然希望多多益善，从项目方角度来说客观造成控筹难度。不挣扎了向下当然也是一种选择，目前市场情绪不太能支撑大市值合力向上，这是一件我们用户自己要想清楚的事，同时也是项目方 @ChiZhangData 需要自己想清楚的事顺带一提他们和 @brevis_zk 的合作，两个项 ...

细节上来说感觉还是建议用 limit 模式买，market 模式手一抖就亏钱了。。。价差巨大 ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The shift from "fair launch" to VC coin investment strategies is accelerating, with cycle times decreasing from over three months to as little as one month or even weeks [1] - Meme coin alpha opportunities are becoming harder to capture, prompting a shift towards pre-TGE opportunities in narratives that are not yet exhausted or disproven [1] - Pre-TGE participation remains a primary battleground, but requires careful project selection and reduced position sizes due to risks like project failures [1] Sector Analysis - Prediction markets, exemplified by Opinion Labs, offer early-stage participation opportunities, but require careful management of transaction costs and differentiation between speculation and investment [1] - Perpdex platforms like $HYPE are showing strength, but valuations should be approached cautiously, potentially benchmarked against HL [1] - Public chain ecosystems are facing pressure from BNBChain, limiting their potential upside until Binance selects projects for support [1] Specific Projects & Ecosystems - Solana's ICM event with Flywheel underperformed expectations, leading to ecosystem decline; Bybit integration offers a potential solution [1] - MMTFinance on SuiNetwork, launching on major exchanges after a security breach, faces uncertainty in driving ecosystem growth [1] - Plume Network's Nest V2, integrating WisdomTree's institutional RWAfi, presents a new avenue for wealth management with 200,000 RWA holders [1] - SeiNetwork's listing on Robinhood and potential Binance Alpha listings may create further ecosystem opportunities [1]

Crypto trader 很容易得情绪病，真的昨天可以极度恐惧，明天又可以极度贪婪 ...

有朋友问我这个在哪里下载，传送门：https://t.co/c2JhEBTMaicode: 5RF7DBVK ...

降息、放水，币圈反而跌了其实是预期之内的，因为今年的很多涨幅大部分来自于降息预期的交易，早已 price in该防守要防守，该撤退要撤退，但记住币圈小资金的高倍机会、大资金的理财机会，都还是无敌的圈外，哪里有几百变几千万的神话（币安人生），哪里来的一次理财本金 10% 的机会（Stable） ...

Investment Platform Analysis - Kaito platform's new project model carries both potential for positive surprises and risks of negative surprises [1] - Projects like Hana, Boundless, and Limitless are considered positive surprises based on their outcomes [1] - A specific project launch on Kaito resulted in a negative surprise [1] Launchpad Model Comparison - Buidlpad and HoloLaunch models offer higher certainty due to shorter project cycles [1] Fundraising Strategy - Binance wallet's Pre-TGE Prime sales provide a more certain fundraising option, but with smaller individual investment capacity [1] KaitoAI Platform Mechanics - KaitoAI's new project launch model incorporates time-weighted scores and ecosystem priority [1] - Early participation in popular projects on KaitoAI is crucial due to the time-weighted scoring system [1]

Project Origin & Leadership - The project in question, Kite, is perceived by some as a domestic project, but it is argued that it is more accurately described as a Silicon Valley project due to its founder's ability to bridge communication between Chinese and Western entities [1] - Project evaluation should prioritize the lead investor's origin [1] - @ChiZhangData is considered a valuable resource [1]

非常突然，提前十几分钟才公告的 $KITE 盘前博弈空间挺大的。很显然前两天 Kite 基金会出来之后 @GoKiteAI 就大招频出：- 有 Coinbase Venture 对 Kite AI 的投资- x402 这一块的建设- Paypal 和 Open AI 合作首个集成的 crypto 项目的预期（想想 GPT 是一个什么样的使用量级和曝光机会）不说别的，CB 对 Kite 的投资基本给我一种钦定的感觉，刚开盘的这个位置上车大概率后手非常多，像这样的项目多军力量不可谓不强。观察下后续会继续释放的利好吧 ...