（来源：吴说） a16z crypto 发文称，2026 年加密技术将从三方面走向更广泛应用：预测市场与 AI 深度融合、规模与智 能化提升；零知识证明成本下降，使"可验证云计算"成为可能，加密证明将扩展至区块链之外的通用计 算与云服务场景；"质押媒体（Staked Media）"兴起，创作者通过链上资产与可验证承诺提升内容可信 度。 ...

（来源：吴说） 据 CNBC 报道，美国银行（Bank of America）将 Coinbase 的评级从"中性"上调至"买入"，维持 340 美 元的目标价。分析师指出，Coinbase 正致力于通过"万能交易所"（Everything Exchange）策略推动增 长，该策略包括向美国用户提供代币化股票、预测市场以及更多链上资产交易服务。尽管短期面临交易 量疲软和 USDC 增长放缓的挑战，但该行认为当前估值未完全反映其长期潜力。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Group 1: On-chain Derivatives Market - Hyperliquid experienced significant growth in 2025, with approximately 609,700 new users, a total trading volume of about $2.95 trillion, and annual revenue of around $844 million [3] - During the market crash on October 11, Hyperliquid recorded the highest liquidation amount across exchanges, totaling $10.276 billion, with $9 billion from long positions [3] - Competitors Aster and Lighter are gaining market share, with Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter holding 47.6%, 15.9%, and 10.3% of the open interest market share, respectively [4] Group 2: Rise of Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWA) - Ondo Finance has launched over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on Ethereum, achieving a total trading volume exceeding $5.5 billion [5] - BlackRock's tokenized U.S. Treasury fund BUIDL has a total size of approximately $1.83 billion, with Ethereum leading at $572 million [6] - Predictions indicate that the market value of on-chain RWAs, excluding stablecoins, will grow from $35 billion to $2 trillion by 2028, primarily on Ethereum [7] Group 3: Prediction Market Developments - Regulatory relaxation in the U.S. has led to significant investments in the prediction market sector, with ICE investing $2 billion in Polymarket, raising its valuation to $8 billion [8] - Robinhood is launching a prediction market service through KalshiEX LLC, expected to open to eligible customers soon [9] Group 4: World Liberty Financial's Token Launch - World Liberty Financial, associated with the Trump family, launched its WLFI token and stablecoin USD1, with USD1's market cap reaching $3.199 billion [10] - A proposal to unlock up to 5% of WLFI tokens for partnerships has sparked internal community debate [11] Group 5: Uniswap's V4 Launch and Governance Changes - Uniswap Labs released Uniswap v4, introducing "hooks" contracts for developers and improving transaction efficiency [12] - A governance proposal to initiate a fee mechanism and reduce UNI supply was overwhelmingly approved, including the burning of 100 million UNI [13] Group 6: Growth in Privacy Sector - Zcash's token price surged by 375%, with a market cap exceeding $9 billion, while Monero's market cap reached $8 billion [14] - Vitalik Buterin emphasized the importance of privacy in crypto payments, advocating for a robust privacy solution [15] - The Ethereum Foundation is expanding its privacy technology efforts with a new "Privacy Cluster" [16] Group 7: Blockchain Innovations and Funding - Tempo, a blockchain startup supported by Stripe, raised $500 million in Series A funding, focusing on stablecoin payment infrastructure [17] - Circle launched the Arc blockchain for enterprise-level stablecoin payments, attracting participation from major institutions [18] Group 8: Solana's Revenue Leadership - Solana led public chain revenues in 2025 with $1.3 billion, while Ethereum fell to fourth place with $524 million [18] Group 9: Ethereum Upgrades and Foundation Reforms - Ethereum completed two major upgrades in 2025, Pectra and Fusaka, aimed at improving user experience and scalability [22] - The Ethereum Foundation underwent leadership changes and restructured its research and development teams [23][24]

Group 1 - Bitfarms is transitioning from Bitcoin mining to high-performance computing and AI infrastructure, aiming for completion by 2027 [1] - Bitfarms has a projected P/E ratio of 84.04 for 2026, which is four times its historical P/E, but its stock price has dropped 62% since early October 2025 [2] - Bitfarms has reported three consecutive quarters of earnings per share (EPS) below expectations, with the latest EPS at -0.08 USD, indicating worsening performance [2] Group 2 - Robinhood has established itself as a leading mobile trading platform, with its stock price soaring by 300% in 2025 and three consecutive quarters of EPS growth, reaching 0.61 USD in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations by nearly 20% [3] - The prediction market is Robinhood's fastest-growing product, allowing users to bet on real-world events, including political elections and sports betting starting in late 2025 [3] - Robinhood's growth story is considered more stable and sustainable compared to Bitfarms, due to its strong revenue model and expansion into a growing market [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised its target price for Robinhood (HOOD.US) from $146 to $147, maintaining a "hold" rating [1] - Robinhood is projected to be one of the best-performing S&P 500 stocks in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 217% [1] - The strong trading volume for brokers and exchanges in Q4 2025 may provide upward potential for Robinhood's earnings, leading to a 5% increase in Q4 earnings per share expectations [1] Group 2 - Robinhood has significantly expanded its AI and predictive market features, with the predictive market becoming its fastest-growing revenue source since its launch last year [1] - Over 1 million customers have traded 11 billion contracts in the predictive market [1] - The company introduced preset combination trades for professional American football, allowing users to trade on combination results, total points, and spreads [1] Group 3 - The new Robinhood Cortex, an AI assistant designed for Robinhood Gold subscribers, has been unveiled [2] - Cortex is reimagined as the core interface of the entire app, providing personalized insights and executing trades using real-time market data and professional analyst reports [2] - The upgraded experience will be available to Gold members in Q1 2026, with a subscription fee of $5 per month or $50 per year [2]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a quieter Christmas compared to previous years, with Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuating between $85,000 and $90,000, and Ethereum (ETH) showing a decline from its previous highs [2][3] - A survey conducted over a month gathered insights from various participants in the crypto community, focusing on their investment experiences and reflections on the past year [3][4] Group 1: Survey Demographics - Over 60% of survey respondents have been in the crypto space for more than three years, indicating a predominance of experienced investors [5] - Newer investors, defined as those with less than three years of experience, make up approximately 38% of the respondents, suggesting a decline in new market entrants [6] Group 2: Investment Performance - More than 57% of respondents reported making a profit, with 17.2% achieving over 50% gains and 39.7% seeing gains between 0-50% [8] - Approximately 27% of participants experienced losses, with 12.1% facing significant losses of over 50% [8] Group 3: Profitability by Sector - Meme coins remain a popular and profitable investment, with about 34% of respondents indicating they earned profits primarily from this sector [10] - Mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL accounted for profits for around 26% of investors, reflecting their performance during the year [10] - DeFi projects attracted about 16% of respondents as a source of profit, while 12% reported earnings from airdrop interactions [10] Group 4: Losses by Sector - Approximately 28% of investors reported significant losses in meme coins and altcoins, highlighting their high-risk nature [14][15] - Contract trading resulted in losses for about 26% of participants, which is lower than expected given the volatility of the market [14] - NFT and GameFi projects were also significant sources of losses, with around 22% of respondents indicating they suffered due to these investments [14] Group 5: Reflections on Losses - About one-third of respondents attributed their losses to not cutting losses in time, a common issue among crypto investors [16] - Over 45% of participants cited slow reactions, conservative trading, or following market trends as reasons for their losses [16] Group 6: Future Outlook - The most promising sectors for 2026 include Real World Assets (RWA), AI, and meme coins, with RWA being mentioned by 31% of respondents [22][23] - Many participants advocate for a dollar-cost averaging strategy, particularly in BTC, as a sound investment approach [24]

Core Viewpoint - Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, argues that prediction markets serve as a "rational tool" for addressing emotional issues, despite theoretical concerns about negative incentives [1] Group 1: Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Markets - Prediction markets, according to Buterin, are less likely to cause large-scale harm compared to traditional markets, which also carry similar risks [1] - Unlike social media, which can incite emotions and lacks accountability, prediction markets utilize real funds to constrain opinions, leading to a closer approximation of truth over time [1] Group 2: Market Characteristics - The fixed price range of 0-1 in prediction markets reduces the influence of "hot potato" dynamics and excessive speculation compared to traditional markets [1]

Core Insights - Coinbase is expanding its services beyond cryptocurrency by allowing customers to trade stocks and engage in prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi, indicating a shift towards becoming a broader financial platform [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Trading Features - The new stock trading feature is a significant development for Coinbase, as it tests the company's ability to leverage its strong crypto brand to enter other financial sectors [3] - Initially, Coinbase will offer a curated list of major stocks and ETFs, with plans to expand to thousands of stocks in the coming months. Stock trading will be available 24/5 with no trading fees [4] - Coinbase plans to introduce perpetual futures for stocks early next year, which will be available outside the U.S. This derivative allows traders to hold options that do not expire [4] Group 2: Market Context and Future Prospects - The launch of stock trading coincides with a growing trend in the financial market towards tokenization, which involves converting various assets into tokens for blockchain trading, enhancing settlement speed and collateral efficiency [5] - Major firms like BlackRock are already offering tokenized versions of Treasury bills and money-market funds, suggesting that tokenized stock offerings could gain rapid traction, aligning with Coinbase's expertise in the crypto space [5]

Group 1 - The central financial committee emphasizes the need to effectively manage financial risks in local small and medium financial institutions, real estate companies, and local government financing platforms, with a focus on controlling new risks and addressing existing ones [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is set to introduce strict regulations on public fund sales, targeting long-standing issues in the industry such as prioritizing sales over service [2] - China's financial data for November shows a significant increase in RMB loans and social financing, with RMB loans increasing by 15.36 trillion yuan and social financing growing by 33.39 trillion yuan, surpassing last year's total [3] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining stable financial markets and managing moral hazards, particularly in real estate finance [5] - The CSRC has issued a record fine to Yuce Investment for misappropriating fund assets and providing false information, highlighting the regulatory crackdown in the private equity sector [5] - The A-share market sees significant gains, particularly in nuclear power and commercial aerospace sectors, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.41% [5] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rises by 1.75%, driven by gains in technology and non-bank financial sectors, despite net selling by southbound funds [6] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is monitoring stocks with significant volatility, indicating increased scrutiny on market activities [7] - Several companies are planning IPOs or stock issuances, including Galaxy General, which aims for a valuation of 3 to 4 billion USD [7] Group 4 - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has released a new management method for commercial bank custody businesses, emphasizing the need for banks to meet specific capabilities and prohibiting certain financial practices [9] - The market regulator is seeking opinions on compliance guidelines for the automotive industry, aiming to address pricing and promotional issues [9] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is pushing for improvements in online product sales, particularly in live commerce, to combat false advertising [9] Group 5 - The State Council has initiated measures to stabilize the real estate market, with Shandong province launching a housing "old-for-new" program to encourage home purchases [11] - The global gold ETF inflows reached 5.2 billion USD in November, marking a six-month streak of inflows and setting a record for total assets under management [20] - The domestic bond market shows signs of cooling, with yields on major bonds rising and the central bank conducting reverse repos to manage liquidity [19]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance with Dow futures up by 0.14%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures down by 0.61% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up by 0.25%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.25%, France's CAC40 up by 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.35% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.24% to $57.46 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.29% to $61.10 per barrel [3][4] AI Regulation and Economic Policy - President Trump signed an executive order aimed at limiting state-level regulations on artificial intelligence (AI), promoting a federal framework to maintain US leadership in the AI sector [5] - The executive order directs the establishment of an "AI litigation task force" to challenge state laws that conflict with the administration's vision for light regulation [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Internal dissent within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts has become pronounced, with Chairman Powell downplaying opposition to a recent 25 basis point cut [6][7] - Concerns about employment data being systematically overestimated may lead to continued dovish monetary policy into 2026, as the Fed prioritizes labor market stability [7] Corporate Earnings and Market Reactions - Broadcom (AVGO) reported Q4 sales of $18 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, but saw its stock drop in after-hours trading due to slightly disappointing AI order backlog [10] - Costco (COST) exceeded Q1 revenue expectations with $67.31 billion, a 6.4% increase, but faced concerns over slowing membership renewal rates and high valuations [11] - Coinbase (COIN) plans to launch tokenized stocks and prediction markets, indicating a move into trending financial products [12] - Netflix (NFLX) experienced a significant market cap drop of $40 billion, prompting a buying surge among retail investors [12] - Apple (AAPL) faced a setback in its legal battle with Epic Games, but gained a chance to defend its commission structure on developer transactions [13] Technological Partnerships - CoreWeave announced a partnership with Runway to enhance its video AI engine using NVIDIA's GB300 chip, indicating a focus on advanced AI capabilities [14] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials are scheduled, which may influence market sentiment and monetary policy outlook [15][16]