憨巴龙王
Search documents
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 13:33
Market Analysis - Two new addresses appeared in the top 10 holders of PUMP on HYPE yesterday afternoon, while the other eight were profitable traders with millions of dollars in gains [1] - HYPE held $250 million in positions yesterday afternoon, while Binance held $60 million, suggesting potential arbitrage activity [2] - After accounting for potential fake positions on HYPE and arbitrageurs on Binance, there is an estimated $200 million in real positions likely to participate in the new offering [2] - A large number of arbitrageurs are expected to participate in the new offering, reducing the number of naked shorts [2] - The potential total commitment for the new offering is estimated at $300-400 million, suggesting it will be oversubscribed [2] - Oversubscription is expected to drive up the price due to FOMO (fear of missing out) in the secondary market [2] - The offering should have been completed in 2-3 minutes instead of 14 minutes if there were no exchange issues [2]
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 13:13
我在bybit 02s打进去的，分发了。淡定点吧，我准备了5m，gate kraken ，bybit bitget都准备了，唯独链上没搞。只有bybit进去了2m。其实后来仔细想想，真打5m进去，我也不敢全部套保，按照现在价格要套8m，钱是有很多，没那胆子。然后我在打新的时候，直接裸多一部分，具体原因参考带哥说的策略。所以就是裸打+裸多的一部分，其实我也很不满意bybit没有立马给结果，如果当时告诉我没打进去，我会直接把2m放在合约上。也不用套保了，直接清仓就好了。很多人说用程序不公平，不是...应该只是你没用上，你能用程序的时候，你觉得比谁都公平。淡定点吧。其实正常来说，应该把资金分成5份，所有地方都准备，确保能打到。反正你也不可能拿自己一半的本金去梭哈打预售吧？千万别又说我洗地了，前几天说几句okx也说我洗地。实话实说，我没收过交易所一分钱，甚至任何一份礼物。前几天何一好像给我回复了，我都懒得回，本来想跟她玩点抽象，说点龙哥（炫神）的梗， 怕被穿小鞋就算了。 ...
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 00:01
Market Manipulation Strategies - Proposed methods to exploit arbitrageurs by creating artificial price discrepancies between spot and futures markets [1] - Suggests maintaining a high premium by opening large long positions in the 0.5-0.55 range [1] - Plans to delay delivery of pre-sales (600 million USD) to trap arbitrageurs [1] - Advocates creating a 20 million USD liquidity pool to attract investment and increase volatility [1] - Aims to create a situation with low spot market circulation and high futures market open interest [1] - Intends to trigger a short squeeze by manipulating the futures market, potentially multiplying long positions and generating liquidity [1] Financial Exploitation - Aims to capture the entire 600 million USD from pre-sales by exploiting market dynamics [1] - Suggests strategies for even larger-scale exploitation requiring capital investment [1]
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-12 23:18
传统市场经常期货绞杀事件，大多数都是多头胜利，因为空头会存在天然的劣势，随着上涨保证金需要成倍的增加。很多时候期货价格也被打到非常离谱的价格，22年青山集团的镍就是。更别说币圈这种妖魔鬼怪的地方了，什么都有可能发生。之前trb不就是，币安500，ok750，巨大的价差，套利的一夜回到解放前。Hype是没有指数价格的，大持仓低流动性（20年以前的币圈），很容易连环爆，万一发生了，可能又是币安0.012，hype0.015这样。持续短短1分钟这样，你来不及补仓，仓位就无了，然后等你想重新开回来的时候，已经插针了。主要是想说，套保是可以，但是不要把自己放在一个很被动的地方，很多人老问我1x套保可以不可以，大多数情况是安全的。但是如果发生连环清算呢，你是不是就一夜回到解放前了。 ...