憨巴龙王
Search documents
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-20 07:11
Market Trends & Correlation - Since the introduction of ETFs in 2024, MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Bitcoin (BTC) have experienced nearly identical percentage gains [1] - This correlation is likely due to the Net Asset Value (NAV) [1] Investment Strategy & Risk - A strategy of longing ETH and shorting SBET, based on SBET's NAV, is perceived as a potentially profitable trade [1] - SBET's implied volatility (IV) is significantly higher than ETH's, suggesting an alternative strategy of buying ETH calls and selling SBET calls [1] - SBET is continuously diluting its value [1]
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-14 03:39
再解释下以前为什么奉行OI/MC数据。以下文章oi都按照单向计算。假设某个币有1000市值，你手上有900现货，并且开了200合约多单，这时候你去拉盘，是一定稳赚的。因为不管拉到多高，现货持有人不管多高砸给你，你的多单对手盘，持有空单的人会亏的更多。（假设合约和现货价格一样），他们爆仓的时候，就是你结算盈利的时候。那这是庄的第一视角，以外部来看，第三视角。这个市场是纯在套利者的。他们可以持有现货同时持有空单。所以我们无法确定做空的人是否是裸空，是否会投降那如果oi＞mc，那就表明，即便所有的现货持有人都是套利者，那也一定有人裸空，而一般这么大的比例的oI/mc基本都是庄开出来的，所以会认为有操盘。但是现在一开始看到的数据是错误的，oi要除以2，那么oI/mc的逻辑在大多数时候都不成立了。 ...
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-14 03:01
Market Observation - The industry has discovered that open interest (OI) is calculated bi-directionally [1] - Individual's position accounts for 10%-15% of the open interest (OI) in some contracts [1] - If OI is calculated bi-directionally, the individual's position would account for 20%-30% [1] - The industry's understanding of OI/MC data may be flawed due to the bi-directional calculation [1] Data Correction - Previously used OI/MC data may need to be divided by 2 to reflect the actual situation [1]
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 13:33
Market Analysis - Two new addresses appeared in the top 10 holders of PUMP on HYPE yesterday afternoon, while the other eight were profitable traders with millions of dollars in gains [1] - HYPE held $250 million in positions yesterday afternoon, while Binance held $60 million, suggesting potential arbitrage activity [2] - After accounting for potential fake positions on HYPE and arbitrageurs on Binance, there is an estimated $200 million in real positions likely to participate in the new offering [2] - A large number of arbitrageurs are expected to participate in the new offering, reducing the number of naked shorts [2] - The potential total commitment for the new offering is estimated at $300-400 million, suggesting it will be oversubscribed [2] - Oversubscription is expected to drive up the price due to FOMO (fear of missing out) in the secondary market [2] - The offering should have been completed in 2-3 minutes instead of 14 minutes if there were no exchange issues [2]