中信期货2026年度策略会于2025年11月26日在上海浦东嘉里大酒店成功召开。本次策略会以"破浪前 行，扬帆起航"为主题，会期两天，共设置1个主论坛及8个分论坛，以多元化视角对下半年宏观、权 益、债券、大宗商品、汇率、海外市场等议题进行深入探讨和展望。策略会期间，来自产业、金融以及 其他行业的投资者共聚现场，共享本次投资交流的盛宴。 中信证券海外宏观首席分析师崔嵘女士及她的团队认为，在2025年关税的波折像骤雨般扰乱全球经济， 从年初持续到年末。在骤雨初晴后，2026年海外宏观面将迎来一段暂时的清朗期，这个清朗包含两层含 义。一是清朗的基本面：2026年无论地缘、财政、货币政策的不确定性下降，还是美欧日经济增长将适 度加速、通胀担忧趋于回落至"舒适区"。二是在资产配置端，要保持一份清醒。2025年多国央行降息叠 加弱美元，使得全球股市普遍呈现"水牛"；而2026年，基于她对于沃勒可能将当选美联储主席的判断， 全球降息潮在幅度上可能将低于2025年；美元在上半年波折后转强，这二者叠加可能导致全球金融市场 流动性不及2025年，总体风险资产的回报率应会低于2025年。不过，她也预计2026年AI科技的狂欢还 有 ...

Market Overview - On November 25, the A-share market experienced a strong rally with a total trading volume of 1.83 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase in market activity [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both rose over 1%, with more than 4,200 stocks in the A-share market increasing in value, and over 90 stocks hitting the daily limit [1][2] Sector Performance - The communication sector led the gains, with significant contributions from stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Sunshine Power, which drove the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index higher [2][3] - The communication, media, and non-ferrous metal industries saw the highest increases, with respective gains of 3.54%, 2.85%, and 2.42% [3][4] - The Wind communication module index rose by 8.21%, indicating a strong recovery in previously adjusted sectors [3] Fund Flow - On November 25, the net inflow of funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 80 billion yuan, ending a streak of seven consecutive days of net outflows [4][5] - The communication sector attracted nearly 40 billion yuan in net inflows, highlighting a shift in investor sentiment [4][5] - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached 114.87 trillion yuan, with the rolling P/E ratio for the entire A-share market at 21.55 times [6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may return to an upward cycle as overseas liquidity expectations improve and domestic funding pressures ease [6][7] - The upcoming important meetings in mid-December are expected to provide decisive policy direction, potentially leading to a market recovery [7] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with safety margins, including communication services, leisure foods, and certain cyclical industries [7]

大摩认为，虽然短期内美联储货币政策相关风险可能持续，但美股大幅调整已接近尾声而非刚开始，近期调整为投资者提供了 2026年布局良机。分析师维持其未来12个月的看涨立场，重点推荐消费品、医疗保健、金融、工业板块和小盘股。 11月24日摩根士丹利Michael J Wilson的研究团队在最新报告中指出， 尽管标普500指数层面回撤仅5%，但市值前1000大公 司中三分之二已回撤超10%，显示市场内部调整已较为充分。 （三分之二的股票出现了10%以上的跌幅） 大摩认为，美联储货币政策和流动性紧缩引发的美股短期波动，恰恰为多头提供了加仓机会。 研报指出，美股动量股在10月15日见顶，当时财政部TGA账户因政美国府停摆而显著上升。标普500指数则在10月29日美联 储会议当天见顶，鲍威尔当时表示12月降息"远非板上钉钉"。 摩根士丹利认为，虽然短期内货币政策相关风险可能持续，但美股大幅调整已接近尾声。 分析师维持对美股未来12个月的看 涨立场，重点推荐消费品、医疗保健、金融、工业板块和小盘股。 指数"风平浪静"，个股"血流成河" 大摩指出，近期美股市场表面看似波澜不惊，标普500指数的回调幅度有限，约5%。然而，水面 ...

2025 年 11 月 25 日 行业研究 水泥、沥青开工率降至 5 年同期最低水平 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.11.17-11.23） 要点 流动性：10 月 BCI 中小企业融资环境指数值为 52.41，环比+10.15%。 （1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 10 月值为 52.41，环比上月 +10.15%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 10 月为-2.0 个百分点，环比-0.80 个百分点；（3） 本周伦敦金现价格为 4064 美元/盎司。 基建和地产链条：水泥、沥青开工率降至 5 年同期最低水平。（1）本周价 格变动：螺纹+1.89%、水泥价格指数-0.47%、橡胶+0.34%、焦炭+3.29%、 焦煤-0.95%、铁矿+1.40%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水泥、沥青开 工率环比-0.22pct、-10.80pct、-8.8pct。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃 的价格环比分别+0.00%、+0.00%，玻璃毛利润为-58 元/吨，钛白粉毛利润 为-1526 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, indicating a proactive approach to maintain liquidity in the banking system amid potential tightening [1][2][3]. Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC's 1 trillion yuan MLF operation marks the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance, with a total net injection of 600 billion yuan in November, maintaining a high level of liquidity [2][3]. - The MLF operation is aimed at countering the expected liquidity tightening, ensuring that the funding environment remains stable and abundant [1][3][4]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Following the MLF operation, market expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions have diminished [1][5]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC will continue to utilize MLF and reverse repos to inject liquidity, signaling a sustained supportive monetary policy stance [6][8]. Group 3: Economic Context - The ongoing liquidity support is seen as essential for facilitating government bond issuance and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply, especially in light of recent economic downturns [3][4][8]. - The anticipated issuance of additional local government bonds and the completion of new policy financial instruments are expected to further influence liquidity dynamics in the banking system [3][4].

Core Insights - QYOU Media Inc. operates in India and the United States, focusing on creating and distributing content for younger audiences in the digital and television sectors [1] - The company underwent a reverse stock split at a ratio of 12 for 1 to streamline shares and enhance marketability [2][6] - The current stock price of QYOUF is $0.0249, reflecting a decrease of 3.49% today, with a market capitalization of approximately $14.89 million [3][4][6] - Today's trading volume for QYOUF is notably low, with only 2 shares traded, indicating limited investor interest [5][6] Company Overview - QYOU Media Inc. targets younger audiences with an innovative media approach, competing in the digital content space [1] - The company has experienced significant stock price volatility over the past year, with a high of $0.792 and a low of $0.0249 [3] Market Performance - The reverse stock split did not affect the overall market capitalization, which remains at approximately $14.89 million [4][6] - The low trading volume may impact the stock's liquidity, although a reverse stock split can sometimes improve liquidity by making the stock more attractive to investors [5]

● 本报记者 彭扬 "总体来看，接下来央行会综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF两项政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动 性。"王青说。 2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告提出，根据经济金融形势的变化，做好逆周期和跨周期调节，持 续营造适宜的货币金融环境。 王青分析，11月中期流动性净投放仍处于较高水平的原因有三方面：一是10月安排5000亿元地方政府债 务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，意味着年底前会加发5000亿元地方债，11月政府债券 净融资规模会有明显上升；二是10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，在带动当月委托贷款走高 后，后续还会带动配套中长期贷款较快投放；三是11月银行同业存单到期量明显增加。"这些因素在一 定程度上收紧了银行体系流动性，需要央行给予流动性支持。"王青说。 "在岁末年初之际，央行通过多种货币政策工具维持市场流动性充裕，进而引导金融机构加大信贷投 放，及时又必要。"招联首席研究员董希淼表示，目前，央行中短期流动性的投放方式已基本固定，即 每月5日前后开展3个月期买断式逆回购、15日前后开展6个月期买断式逆回购、25日开展MLF操作，为 保持市场流动性充裕提供有力支持。 货 ...

为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行11月24日发布预告称，将在25日以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展1万亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。鉴于11月有9000亿元MLF到 期，当月央行MLF净投放规模将达到1000亿元，为央行连续第九个月对MLF加量续作。 在保持流动性充裕和银行净息差持续承压的背景下，MLF期限偏长、投放和到账时间确定，能为金融 机构提供稳定的预期。与此同时，随着MLF操作招投标机制的完善，MLF操作已从当天发布结果公告 改为预先发布招标公告，有利于参与机构提前做好短中长期流动性安排。 "总体上看，接下来央行会综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF两项政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动 性。"王青表示，央行加量续作MLF有助于稳增长、稳预期。 11月以来，央行两度开展公开市场买断式逆回购操作，累计净投放5000亿元。综合来看，MLF与买断 式逆回购两项政策工具在11月合计释放中期流动性6000亿元，与上月净投放规模持平，继续展现出央行 适度宽松的货币政策取向。 "11月MLF加量续作着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向证券时报记者 指出，10月财政部 ...

"在岁末年初之际，央行通过多种货币政策工具维持市场流动性充裕，进而引导金融机构加大信贷投 放，及时又必要。"招联首席研究员董希淼表示，目前，央行中短期流动性的投放方式已基本固定，即 每月5日前后开展3个月期买断式逆回购、15日前后开展6个月期买断式逆回购、25日开展MLF操作，为 保持市场流动性充裕提供有力支持。 ● 本报记者 彭扬 11月24日，据中国人民银行消息，11月25日，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展10000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）操作，期限为1年期。 Wind数据显示，11月将有9000亿元MLF到期。这意味着11月MLF净投放为1000亿元，连续第九个月加 量续做，符合市场预期。 净投放处于较高水平 "考虑到11月央行还净投放5000亿元买断式逆回购，这意味着11月中期流动性净投放总额达6000亿元， 与上月相同，连续四个月处于年内较高水平。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青说。 王青分析，11月中期流动性净投放仍处于较高水平的原因有三方面：一是10月安排5000亿元地方政府债 务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，意味着年底前会加发5000亿元地方债，11月政府债 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its S&P 500 price target to 7800 for 2026, citing strong earnings growth and a belief that a new bull market is underway, particularly in lagging sectors [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The evolving narrative suggests that the market is transitioning from growth-negative to growth-positive policies, with optimism about the economy's resilience despite concerns about the Federal Reserve's pace of action [2][3] - There is a belief that a rolling recession has already occurred, with the economy rebalancing towards the private sector, which is expected to improve as government policies change [4][5] - The Fed is anticipated to cut rates, which is seen as essential for allowing a rotation into interest rate-sensitive sectors of the market [6][7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A correction of 10-15% was predicted due to tightening liquidity, but evidence suggests that this correction is well advanced [9] - The performance of momentum stocks, including cryptocurrencies, indicates market concerns about liquidity, which will influence the Fed's timing for rate cuts [10][12] - The market is expected to dictate the Fed's actions, with potential financial stress prompting a more dovish policy path [12][31] Group 3: Investment and Spending - There is an expectation of increased capital expenditures (CapEx) driven by government incentives, which will require support from the Fed's balance sheet [17][18] - The investment in technology, particularly AI, is viewed as crucial for driving productivity and supporting stock performance in the future [21] - The market is experiencing a bifurcation in performance among major players, which is seen as a healthy sign of competition and investment discipline [28][29] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Role - The Fed's independence is questioned, with the view that it is influenced by market conditions and government funding requirements [32][33] - The Fed is expected to respond to market demands for liquidity and rate cuts, reflecting the financialization of the economy [31][32]