#Crypto看到好多自己落后版本又不愿意承认别人更强的酸味太好笑了😂在我看来 meme 的本质就是年轻人不买茅台，年轻人发现自己能坐庄，就再也不会去接老阴谋集团的老盘。真要比肮脏程度，meme 比 vc 可干净太多了。我们套利党登味最少，我们衷心希望所有人所有流派都发财，让我们跟着赚一点。Aoke Quant 奥克队长🚩 (@aoke_quant):冷思考的文章透露着一股老人味儿。大部分老登都是从小登学习、实践、经过多次归零成长来的。当然不乏起步就有很好资源以及能忍住不经历梭哈归零的小登，但这些都是万中挑一的人。币安发射台有个最重要的属性就是公平，当然有小部分坏蛋们在里面搞银茂集团。meme 把中间化交易所项目方 TGE https://t.co/zSvkdxpDMx ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in China's foreign exchange reserves to $3.34 trillion contrasts sharply with the depreciation of the RMB against the USD, raising questions about the effectiveness of reserve accumulation in stabilizing the currency [2] Group 1: Data Paradox - The growth in reserves is accompanied by concerns over structural imbalances, with the proportion of USD assets falling to 58% from a peak of 73% in 2014, while holdings in EUR, JPY, and gold have increased to 32% [2] - The opportunity cost of holding USD assets is significant, with a yield of 2.3% compared to 4.8% for 10-year US Treasury bonds, resulting in an annualized opportunity cost exceeding $15 billion [2] - The RMB depreciation is driven by three main factors: widening interest rate differentials, narrowing trade surpluses, and diverging policy expectations [2] Group 2: Arbitrage Opportunities - The onshore-offshore price gap for the RMB has widened, creating an arbitrage opportunity with a potential annualized return of 1.9% [2] - The offshore RMB liquidity has tightened, as indicated by the spike in CNH Hibor to 13.4%, the highest since 2013, increasing the cost of arbitrage [2] - The derivatives market shows a 2.1% arbitrage opportunity between NDF and DF rates, with a significant increase in foreign institutional trading volume [2] Group 3: Policy Responses - The central bank has reactivated counter-cyclical factors in the exchange rate management model, adjusting the counter-cyclical coefficient to 0.8 to limit depreciation [2] - Capital controls have been tightened, requiring banks to conduct thorough reviews of large foreign exchange transactions, particularly in technology and real estate sectors [2] - The central bank has signaled stability by emphasizing the adequacy of reserves to manage short-term fluctuations and has increased gold holdings to diversify reserve assets [2] Group 4: Underlying Contradictions - Concerns about the quality of reserves are rising, particularly regarding the liquidity risks associated with the $1.1 trillion in US Treasury bonds held by China [2] - The balance between market-driven and interventionist approaches in exchange rate formation is challenged, with a significant increase in direct interventions by the central bank [2] - The real effective exchange rate has appreciated by 23% since 2015, impacting export competitiveness and increasing import costs for key commodities [2] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term arbitrage opportunities are expected to narrow by Q4 2025 as the US Federal Reserve nears the end of its rate hike cycle [2] - Long-term reforms are anticipated, including optimizing reserve structures and enhancing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate [2] - The need for a new balance in reserve management, exchange rate mechanisms, and industrial upgrades is emphasized to ensure sustainable financial security [2]

有机制的漏洞才会出现套利机会，套利本身就是黑森林法则，经常出现螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后，你们先套利爆仓的让后套利的赚了大量的溢价。现在是2025年了，高收益套利一定存在很大风险。bybit合约没有限价才会出现这样400%溢价的情况，你说搞个限价就不会出现了？你知道2020年的okex的fil期货吗，操纵者操纵gate的价格触发ok限价，让你无法止损，只能眼睁睁看着被爆。还有23年的star也是，也是限价不能止损。然后就一堆人哎呀妈的怪okx什么破限价机制，不让止损。所以，什么样的机制都可能操纵，不完美的机制才有大量的机会，总不能平台机制出现漏洞，自己套利赚钱就是自己牛逼，自己套利被爆就找平台维权。同样的，操纵者也不是神，他们也会亏钱，如果100%稳赚，那大资金都去操纵了。既然知道有人操纵，如果觉得自己笨可以不跟他们玩，如果觉得自己聪明。可以跟操纵者同向操作，搭个顺风车喝汤啊。🤡0x0🤡 (@0x0_zero):读后认为这是一篇值得套利圈子所有人阅读的文章很好的解析是近期 @Bybit_Official 发生的 $SERAPH $RFC $GROK 等代币的恶性爆仓事件，导致了客户过千万美元的资金在一夜之间消失殆尽 h ...

现在是2025年了，操盘的又升级了。21年以前，都是散户做多，资金费随便吃，仓位随便开，我基本都5x杠杆玩山寨。22年的时候，散户被割晕了，开始学会做空了，主力就玩小币拉升，引诱散户做空，然后一直拉现货。负溢价你受不了。现在25年了，散户也知道小币不能做空，主力找不到对手盘了，就开始搞套利的了。之前pumpbtc应该是有傻大户被爆了几千万刀，最高点3分钟翻倍，然后1分钟持仓掉了4000万刀，典型的套利被爆，主力自动adl。还有hype上xpl也是操纵爆套利的，还有昨晚的bybit的seraph。我也玩小币套利，但是我爆仓价基本都是×100倍。也就是一天拉10倍我都游刃有余。对于小资金还好，不对劲直接砍仓就行了。对于大资金来说，最麻烦的是，你砍不了，别人就是爆你的。比方说我2000万刀保证金，开一个小币套利100万刀，爆仓价看似20倍，但是现在动不动一天拉10倍，这时候你仓位就是1000万刀，你根本不可能减仓的，一定会加速，主力就是盯着爆你去的。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report dated September 25, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,530 with a decrease of 25, trading volume of 246,394 hands (an increase of 67,330), and open interest of 525,141 (a decrease of 3,151) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,680 with a decrease of 30, trading volume of 656 hands (an increase of 229), and open interest of 771 (an increase of 305) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 15,083 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CY IndexC32S price was 20,615 yuan, unchanged [3] - Cot A price was 78.15 cents/pound, up 0.30 cents; FCY IndexC33S price was 21,464 yuan, up 22 yuan [3] Price Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -5, down 20;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -85, down 19,795 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,150, down 5; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 1,222, up 21 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - In India, from September 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 41.8mm, 8.7mm higher than normal and 15.7mm higher than last year [6] - In the US, the average temperature in the main cotton - growing areas (92.9% output share) was 79.07°F, 2.99°F higher than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.48 inches, 0.37 inches lower than last year [6] - This year, Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase more than expected, while ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and large - scale rush to buy is not expected. The expected acquisition price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Trading Logic - As new cotton is gradually being acquired, the market focus is shifting to the new cotton opening price. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be some selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7] - In September, the market's peak season has arrived, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so this year's peak season is expected to be average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly. It is recommended to trade opportunistically [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated to 13,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35. Cotton yarn futures declined significantly. The pure cotton yarn market generally remained unchanged, and the peak - season trading was not as good as previous years [9] - The cotton - fabric market lacks stamina, with small orders maintained and large orders scarce. There is price competition, and the price difference between different weavers for regular varieties is about 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter [12] Group 4: Options Option Data - On September 25, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the closing price was 111.00, a decrease of 27.0%, with an implied volatility of 11.7% [14] - For CF601P13600.CZC, the closing price was 297.00, an increase of 20.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.6% [14] Volatility and Strategy - Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.4409, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [14] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed that both call and put trading volumes increased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [15][16]

本文来自好友，杨岳斌 前言： 根据1957，1961年巴菲特致合伙人的信 ，以及1988年巴菲特致股东的信中内容展示，价值投资的核心策略中有一个不太被关注，但却十分重要的 利器，那就是套利（Workout/Arbitrage）。在笔者看来，不管是烟屁股Cigar Butt生意，还是滚雪球Snowball好生意，抑或是本文重点叙述的套 利投资，背后都体现出价值投资者的核心理念。那就是，价值投资者本质上厌恶风险（Risk Averse），在洞悉风险和收益的本质之后，选择性地 把握那些呈现出风险收益不对称性的机遇。本文重点论证，价值投资在套利投资过程中，如何把握投资机会（也可以称之为 鸭兔幻象系列-风险收 益不对称性之套利篇 ）。 巴菲特和他的老师格雷厄姆从事套利活动将近60年，平均收益20%。可以确认，巴菲特的套利思想源自格雷厄姆。在1951年《证券分析》书中格 雷厄姆称之为 "特殊情况" Special Situation。1957年巴菲特致合伙人公司（以下简称合伙人公司）的信中称之为Workout（通常译为健身，这里 译为套利）。市场曾经取过一个略惊悚的名字，Scalping剥头皮。今天的资本市场称为套利（法 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **government bond futures market** and its trading strategies, highlighting its role in risk management and investment opportunities [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Characteristics of Government Bond Futures**: - Features include short-selling mechanisms, margin trading, standardized contracts, and daily mark-to-market settlement, which help mitigate interest rate risks, lower transaction costs, enhance liquidity, and reduce credit risks [1][2]. - **Functions of Government Bond Futures**: - Key functions include hedging against interest rate fluctuations, price discovery, linkage between primary and secondary markets, and optimizing asset allocation [1][2][3]. - **Types of Government Bond Futures in China**: - China has introduced futures for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds, covering critical maturities. Each contract corresponds to different remaining maturity ranges, with longer maturities having wider price fluctuation limits and higher minimum margin requirements [1][4]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: - Basis is the difference between the cash bond price and the futures price adjusted for the conversion factor, serving as an important indicator for analyzing arbitrage opportunities. Net basis considers holding income, which is crucial for selecting the cheapest deliverable bond (CTD) [1][7][10]. - **Market Participants**: - Main participants in the government bond futures market include brokerage firms, asset management products (like public funds and private equity), individual investors, and some banks and insurance companies. The market has seen steady growth in trading volume and open interest since 2023 [5][6]. Additional Important Content - **Hedging Strategies**: - Hedging strategies include short and long hedges to manage interest rate risks. The process involves selecting contracts, calculating hedge ratios, dynamically adjusting positions, and managing rollovers [2][12][13]. - **Risks in Hedging**: - Risks faced during hedging include basis risk, financing spread volatility, and term mismatch risk. These risks arise from the imperfect correlation between the swap contract indicators and actual yields [17][27]. - **Interest Rate Swaps**: - Interest rate swaps are over-the-counter financial contracts that help manage interest rate risk by exchanging fixed and floating interest payments. They can also be used for speculation and cost reduction [21][22]. - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: - Arbitrage strategies in the futures market include directional trading and relative value strategies, such as term arbitrage and cross-asset strategies [19][28][29]. - **Risks in OTC Contracts**: - OTC contracts carry additional risks compared to exchange-traded contracts, including credit, operational, and valuation risks. Market risk arises if actual market conditions deviate from expectations [30]. This summary encapsulates the essential aspects of the government bond futures market and its associated trading strategies, highlighting both opportunities and risks for market participants.

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Monthly Report: Supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, focus on low-buying opportunities [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - For plastics, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. With limited further negative supply factors and improving demand from the agricultural film sector, the spot price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Attention should be paid to low-buying opportunities [3]. - For PP, due to insufficient existing maintenance and new capacity release, the output continues to reach new highs. The industry's weak outlook restricts the rebound height. Attention should be paid to changes in macro policies and warehouse receipts [6]. Summary by Sections Plastic Market Review - **Price Movement**: In August, the Wenhua Chemical Index closed with three consecutive positive candles. Olefins were weaker than chemicals, but plastics were relatively resistant to decline in the olefin sector. The L2601 fluctuated in the range of 7,243 - 7,455, with an amplitude of 212 points. The monthly closing price was 7,287, down 112 points from the previous month [11]. - **Basis and Position**: In the first half of August, the basis of North China 09 contract was repaired to near par. After the main contract shifted to 01 on August 15, the main contract was at a premium to the spot again. The position of the 01 contract remained around 400,000 lots, similar to the same period last year [13]. - **Spread Analysis**: The difference between September and January contracts of plastics changed little. With the arrival of the peak season in September and the low 1 - 5 spread, it is recommended to consider positive arbitrage opportunities based on the strength of the downstream peak season. The LP spread continued to widen in August, and the long LP01 position should be held [15][17]. Plastic Supply - **Production**: This week's PE output was 620,000 tons (down 43,000 tons week-on-week), ending a six - week upward trend. The capacity utilization rate was 79%. From January to week 34, the cumulative year - on - year output growth rates of PE, LL, HD, and LD were +18%, 28%, 10%, and 15% respectively. The supply pressure of LD eased, while that of HD increased [20]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, 5.43 million tons of new devices are planned to be put into production. As of now, 3.43 million tons have been put into operation. The remaining Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons) is planned to be put into production in October, and Exxon's (500,000 tons) non - standard device is expected to be put into operation in September [20]. - **Import and Export**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import volume was 8.03 million tons (up 2.5% year - on - year), and the cumulative export volume was 610,000 tons (up 21% year - on - year) [22]. Plastic Demand - **Domestic Demand**: This week, the downstream PE operating rate was 40% (up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month), and the agricultural film operating rate improved for six consecutive weeks. From January to July, the apparent PE consumption was 26.29 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.5% [25]. - **Exports**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative export value of plastics and products was $83.1 billion (up 1.2% year - on - year), and the proportion of exports to the US was 14% [27]. Plastic Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: This week, the enterprise inventory decreased to 427,000 tons (down 75,000 tons week - on - week), and the enterprise inventory pressure eased. The social inventory was 560,000 tons (up 5,500 tons week - on - week). The current inventory pressure in the industrial chain is not large, and the downstream raw material inventory remains at a relatively low level [30]. Plastic Profit - The current weighted gross profit of LL is at a neutral level compared to the same period, and the cost drive is not strong [33]. PP Market Review - **Price Movement**: In August, the PP price showed a unilateral decline. The PP2601 fluctuated in the range of 6,967 - 7,163, with an amplitude of 196 points. The final closing price was 6,974, down 140 points from the previous month [36]. - **Spread Analysis**: Affected by profit pressure and the leap month, the peak season started slowly this year, and downstream orders remained weak. The 9 - 1 spread of PP continued the reverse arbitrage trend in August, and the 1 - 5 spread is expected to continue the reverse arbitrage trend [41]. - **Arbitrage**: The MTO disk profit is slowly recovering [42]. PP Supply - **Production**: This week, the PP output was 810,000 tons (up 23,000 tons week - on - week), increasing for four consecutive weeks. The total estimated output of polypropylene in China next week is 813,000 tons, continuing the upward trend [45]. - **Cost and Profit**: The current weighted gross profit of PP remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The PDH gross profit has significantly recovered, and the production capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [46]. PP Import and Export - From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import volume was 1.92 million tons (down 8% year - on - year), and the cumulative export volume was 1.83 million tons (up 29% year - on - year). In July, PP became a net importer. It is expected to become a net exporter again in the future [51]. PP Demand - The downstream operating rate of PP remains at around 50%. From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 13.3% [52]. PP Inventory - The inventory of enterprises and traders is being reduced from a high level [53]. Strategies - **Plastic Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Try to buy at low prices. Focus on the range of [7,250 - 7,500] for L2601 [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage position [5]. - **Hedging**: Since the basis is at a low level compared to the same period, industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [5]. - **PP Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The valuation is low but the upward drive is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see. Focus on the range of [6,900 - 7,150] for PP2601 [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the long LP01 position [8]. - **Hedging**: Since the basis is at a low level compared to the same period, sell - hedging can be considered [7].