Just your daily reminder that stocks are expensive.To put it in the context of my recent “Fee Fi FOUR Umm…” post, specifically the expected return discussion surrounding FISV, the difference between a 20% expected annualized long-term return on a common stock and an 10% one is logarithmic. The 20% return price can be 4x times the 10% expected return price and 8x the 8% expected return.This also explains why value investors look like idiots for extended periods. When a stock trading at the 8% expected return ...

DB downgrades FOUR because it sees organic growth falling to the mid teens? Boy do I have a story for you. https://t.co/rZvdOaiNE9 ...

New post.The Payments Giants: FEE FI FOUR Umm…The attraction for most investors is that the payments business at scale intuitively is a moneymaker. A toll bridge on all the payments happening in some section of the world or economy, with the toll so small no one that pays it worries about it. This should work as long as the toll bridge can keep other bridges from being built in that particular section.The difference between one toll bridge and two on any one section of river is night and day. So, most try t ...

What this post says is that if you do not know your history, you cannot see that compute will ultimately accrue to the customer, not to bare metal suppliers of compute. $MSFT and $AAPL seem to know this. $META seemed to, but now commits to dominating bare metal compute. Mistake. ...

And Meta gives in, throwing away its one saving grace. Watch ROIC crash.*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone):$META - ZUCKERBERG ANNOUNCED NEW TOP-LEVEL INITIATIVE, META COMPUTE ...

Short Thoughts, new today.I cover Medicaid fraud/Molina, Shift4, Fannie Mae, the job market and “AI,” etc.On that last point, during COVID, Medicaid redetermination – that is, re-confirming participant qualifications to be part of Medicaid – were suspended – and this continued for over 3 years!About 25% of Molina’s membership is in California, where Medicaid enrollment is 10x bigger than Minnesota.https://t.co/nCxSgQwcUG ...

Agreed. And still, return on investment will continue to fall, almost all AI companies will go bankrupt, and much of the AI spending will be written off. Will it be the Panic of 2026? 2027? Does not have to be.tae kim (@firstadopter):Here's what's going to happen from here:-Nvidia will report blowout numbers the next several quarters on the NVL72 product supercycle (a step function up in capability with 72 GPUs in one AI server versus 8 GPUs). It will become one of the largest cycles in technology history, ...

The Blessed Fraud Recurrence addresses, in long form, questions raised in the original Unicorns & Cockroaches: Blessed Fraud article about AI buildout depreciation schedules and potential earnings overstatement by the hyperscalers. Here, I admit it - AI really is like electrification, #Nvidia GPU failure rates, Power is an inventory problem, and why I short $NVDA."Nevertheless, faulty Nvidia GPUs and GPU memory made up almost half the failures. This amounts to about a 9% failure rate if extended over the fi ...

General Overview - The document mentions a link, suggesting a reference to prior information or context [1] Data Source - The document references a URL, potentially leading to additional data or analysis [1]

This document is too short to provide a meaningful analysis relevant to industry trends or company performance, as it is simply a tweet about enjoying winters in Northern California. Therefore, it's impossible to extract any information related to financial performance, market dynamics, or investment opportunities.