轻工制造 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.07.07 -27% -20% -14% -7% -1% 6% 轻工制造 沪深300 核心观点 楼市新政效果有望释放，关注相关家居转债 分析师 吕明璋 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030001 lvmz@ctsec.com 证券研究报告 本周转债条款信息：1）帝欧转债：2024 年第二季度，"帝欧转债"因转股减 少 740 张（金额为 7.40 万元），转股数量为 5535 股。截至 2024 年 6 月 28 日， 剩余可转债张数为 1499.66 万张（可转债余额为 15.00 亿元）。2）景兴转债： 2024 年第二季度，"景兴转债"因转股减少 1000 元（10 张），转股数量为 294 股。截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日，公司剩余可转债余额为 9.99 亿元（998.57 万张）。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 最近 12 月市场表现 相关报告 1. 《5 月家具出口延续改善，美国通胀 放缓》 2024-07-01 2. 《北京楼市新政落地，关注政策效果 释放》 2024-07-01 3. 《一线城市楼市新政均落地，关注相 关轻工转债》 202 ...

| --- | --- | |--------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | 相关报告 | | | 1. 《建材行业策略周报》 | 2024-06-24 | | 2. 《建材行业策略周报》 | 2024-06-17 | | 3. 《建材行业策略周报》 | 2024-06-11 | 图表目录 1,000 图5.国废(元/吨) 周期:水泥区域协同加强,华东水泥提价:玻璃光伏市场偏弱价格承压,浮法 玻璃刚需补库价格有所下滑。 细纱方面，电子纱市场价格小涨，供应有所增加。本周电子纱市场价格小幅上调， 整体涨幅 100-300 元/吨不等，实际成交价格亦有上调，但新价落实尚需跟进，下 游 CCL 厂家订单较稳定，市场按需采购，货源紧俏度仍存。建议关注具有成本 优势的中国巨石。 2020 ❖ 新材料：玻纤粗纱淡季挺价，细纱价格小幅上涨；碳纤维变化不大， 6 月新房成交稳中微增，二手表现较好。新房方面，6 月 30 城整体成交 1335 万 方，环比增长 17%、同比下降 19%，与 Q1 均值相比增长 52%。上半年累计同降 39%，降幅收窄 4pct。6 月 ...

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -27% -20% -14% -7% -1% 6% 轻工制造 沪深300 分析师 吕明璋 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030001 lvmz@ctsec.com 联系人 何栋 hedong@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《5 月家具出口延续改善,美国通胀 放缓》 2024-07-01 2. 《北京楼市新政落地,关注政策效果 释放》 2024-07-01 3. 《一线城市楼市新政均落地,关注相 关轻工转债》 2024-06-30 核心观点 轻工行业周报 本周行情回顾:本周(2024.7.1-2024.7.5)申万轻工指数收报 1706.08 点,周 涨跌幅为-1.39%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.51pct,在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 21。本周轻工制造细分板块跌多涨少,造纸/包装印刷/文娱用品/家居用品分别 +1.16%/-0.81%/-1.79%/-3.26%。 北京二手房成交放量,关注政策效果释放。据克而瑞数据,2024 年第 26 周(6.24-6.30),15 个重点监测城市二手房成交面积环比增长 2%,同比增长 71%,成交套数环比 ...

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -37% -28% -20% -12% -3% 5% 社会服务 沪深300 分析师 刘洋 SAC 证书编号:S0160521120001 liuyang01@ctsec.com 分析师 于健 SAC 证书编号:S0160522060001 yujian@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《体验型奢侈消费趋势向好,个人奢 侈品市场承压 》 2024-07-01 2. 《回归业绩主线,聚焦可持续成长性》 2024-06-30 3. 《 关 注 人 口 结 构 周 期 的 机 会 》 2024-06-23 核心观点 ❖ 文旅:关注暑期旅游热点孵化及四季度同比基数走低。暑期预计东北 (暑期避暑+冬季冰雪)与西北(新疆旺季+"我的阿勒泰"剧集引流) 有望形成旅游热点,同时低空经济有望为景区注入新动能。个股业绩层 面关注暑期旺季景气度延续+四季度同比业绩基数回落有望走出相对 高增速。建议关注:行业热点有望在下半年持续孵化带动 Beta 机遇, 同时核心关注长白山、西域旅游、九华旅游、峨眉山 A 等有新项目落地 预期及交通改善的标的。 ❖ 酒店:暑期旺季来临,全国酒店 OC ...

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -19% -14% -8% -2% 4% 汽车 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号:S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号:S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 头部新势力车企销量同比持续增长,智驾技术持续升级 核心观点 ❖ 自主品牌销量:据各公司发布的 6 月销量数据,总体来看主要结论有如下几 点:1)头部新势力车企销量同比持续增长。2)新势力品牌智驾技术持续升级。 ❖ 蔚来:6 月交付量同比+98%,环比+3.23%。据公司官方微信公众号,2024 年 6 月,蔚来交付新车 21,209 台,同比增长 98%,环比增长 3.23%,创历史 新高;今年上半年,蔚来交付新车 87,426 台,同比增长 60.2%。2024Q2 蔚来 交付新车 57373 台,超交付指引,同比增长 143.9%。 ❖ 理想:6 月交付量同比+46.7%,环比+36.4%。据公司官方微信公众号, 2024 年 6 月,理想汽车交付新车 4.78 万辆,环比+36 ...

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -19% -14% -8% -2% 4% 汽车 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号:S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号:S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com LNG、新能源以及出口重卡销量均同比增长 核心观点 ❖ 事件: 2024 年 6 月份,我国重卡市场销售约 7.4 万辆左右(开票口径,包含 出口和新能源),环比 5 月份下降 5%,比上年同期的 8.65 万辆下滑 14%,减 少了约 1.2 万辆。累计来看,2024 年 1-6 月,我国重卡市场销售各类车型约 50.7 万辆,比上年同期上涨 4%,净增加近 2 万辆。 ❖ LNG 重卡销量增速环比 5 月有所下滑,同比保持较高增速:根据第一 商用车网的统计,6 月份国内天然气重卡终端销量环比 5 月份下降超过 20%, 预计 6 月份 LNG 重卡销量同比增速在 25-30%左右,国内终端市场渗透率在 36-38%。天然气重卡市场销量表现"淡季不淡"。 ❖ 新能源重卡同比增速约为 100% ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper prices, suggesting potential for further increases in the future [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices have risen over 10% this year, with a significant spike in May due to limited inventory, surpassing pre-Ukraine conflict levels, followed by a slight correction in June [2][7]. - The supply-demand framework highlights that copper's demand reflects economic activity, with a tight supply situation expected in both the short and long term due to declining ore grades and limited new discoveries [2][3][11]. - The demand for copper is primarily driven by developed economies, while developing economies contribute to incremental demand, particularly in power network construction [2][20]. Supply-Demand Framework - The copper industry has a long supply chain, encompassing mining, smelting, processing, and recycling [8]. - Supply is constrained, with primary copper (about 80% of total) sourced from mining, mainly in Chile and Peru, while secondary copper from recycling is less significant but increasing [11][12]. - Demand is concentrated in developed economies, with emerging markets driving growth, particularly in power and household appliances [20][21]. Price System - Copper prices are influenced by global economic conditions, with historical data showing a strong correlation with emerging market demand since 2003 [2][3]. - The pricing logic indicates that real supply-demand factors and investment motives are key drivers of copper prices, while risk aversion has a lesser impact [2][3]. Future Trends - The report suggests that while the extreme price surge may not recur, both short-term and long-term fundamentals will support copper price increases [3]. - The projected price midpoint for copper by the end of the year is approximately $10,230 per ton, indicating a potential increase of over 4% from recent prices around $9,850 per ton [3]. - Factors that could lead to price corrections include unexpected Federal Reserve actions, economic downturns, or significant new copper discoveries [3].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Maintain "Accumulate" [20] Core Views - The company is shifting its development strategy to focus on digital technology, establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary with an investment of RMB 2 billion to enhance its digital business capabilities [15][13] - The company has divested its engineering construction segment, concentrating resources on environmental technology and park operations, which are expected to drive future growth [14] - The environmental technology segment achieved record revenue and profit in 2023, while the industrial park operations faced challenges but are set to improve through a comprehensive operational model [14] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 14,673 million, with a growth rate of 4.91%, followed by a significant decline of 70.78% in 2024 [12] - Net profit for 2023 is expected to reach RMB 1,079 million, with a growth rate of 86.52%, but is projected to drop to RMB 297 million in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 72.44% [12] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 0.28, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 34.84 [12] Business Strategy and Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage the digital economy's potential, aligning with national strategies to enhance digital technology integration with the real economy [15] - The environmental technology sector is expected to expand into energy-saving fields, while the industrial park operations will focus on resource integration and investment management [14] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in net profit growth from 2024 to 2026, with projections of RMB 297 million, RMB 303 million, and RMB 333 million respectively [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [23]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the domestic lawn mower export market, focusing on outdoor power equipment (OPE) and has a promising future with its own brand development [39][68]. - The company has established a strategic partnership with Home Depot, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth [25][26]. - The global OPE market is projected to reach $32.4 billion by 2025, with lawn mowers being a core category, indicating substantial growth opportunities [4][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been focused on OPE since its establishment in 2006, with a significant emphasis on lawn mowers, which account for 86.8% of its revenue in 2023 [39][68]. - The company has successfully transitioned from an OEM model to developing its own brands, such as MOWOX and Green Machine, since 2016 [15][16]. Market Analysis - The OPE market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.3%, with the fuel-powered segment remaining dominant, accounting for 66.4% of the market in 2020 [74]. - The lawn mower market alone is projected to grow from $9.3 billion in 2020 to $11.99 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 5.2% [54]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are $1.74 billion, $2.56 billion, and $3.37 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 86.9%, 47.4%, and 31.7% [26]. - The net profit is expected to reach $90 million, $158 million, and $248 million for the same years, reflecting significant growth potential [26]. Strategic Partnerships - The exclusive supply agreement with Home Depot positions the company's Murray brand favorably in the market, enhancing its competitive edge [25][63]. - The partnership is expected to provide the company with better channel support and increased visibility in retail [64]. Product Development - The company is actively investing in R&D, with a focus on expanding its product line to include lithium battery-powered equipment, which is gaining traction in the market [5][68]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new products, including riding mowers and battery-powered devices, which are anticipated to contribute to future revenue growth [5][71].

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 电力设备 沪深300 上证指数 -40% -32% -23% -14% -6% 3% 分析师 张一弛 SAC 证书编号:S0160522110002 zhangyc02@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《海外 5 月出口数据变压器继续高 增》 2024-06-27 2. 《关注特高压,锂电池涨价》 2024- 06-20 3. 《江苏海风风机进一步推动,关注特 高压二次配网》 2024-06-11 核心观点 周观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 光伏:5 月份光伏新增装机 1904 万千瓦(19.04GW),同比增长 47.6%,环 比增长 32.5%,已恢复增长态势。光伏产业链出清加速进行,关注行业反 弹机会。 ❖ 电力设备:国网 2024 年 5 月电网建设投资 474 亿元,同比增长 13.9%,单月 增速显著。南网亦宣布 2024 年固定资产投资 1730 亿元,同比增长 23.5%,两 网投资增速支撑全年电力设备需求。特高压工程高质量建设推进大会也明确 了特高压的重要性,关注该领域的投资机会。 ❖ 风电:本周新增风机招标项目 1.63GW,均为陆上项目;国家能 ...