| 基本数据 | 2025-08-29 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 62.61 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 17.38 | | 每股净资产(元) | 12.99 | | 总股本(亿股) | 17.38 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -4% 24% 52% 79% 107% 135% 拓普集团 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 机器人电驱执行器项目进展顺利，开拓液冷市场 拓普集团(601689) 证券研究报告 汽车零部件 / 公司点评 / 2025.08.31 投资评级:买入(维持) 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《业绩同比高增长，机器人电驱执行器项 目进展顺利》 2025-04-30 2. 《业绩预告同比高增长，降本增效成果显 著》 2025-01-21 3. 《业绩同比高增长，海外加速拓展》 2024-11-07 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Visual is maintained as "Buy" [2][7] Core Views - Hisense Visual reported a revenue of 27.23 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06 billion yuan, up 26.6% year-on-year [7] - The company holds the leading market share in China's retail sales of televisions, with online and offline market shares of 18.34% and 33.09% respectively [7] - The overseas online business grew by 18.5% year-on-year, with QLED product shipments increasing by 42% [7] - The company is focusing on new display technologies, with revenue from new display businesses reaching 3.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.43% [7] - Profitability is improving, with a net profit margin of 3.88%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 64.8 billion, 71.3 billion, and 78 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 2.598 billion, 2.991 billion, and 3.365 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 53.616 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.2% [6][8] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 2.096 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.8% [6][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.99 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.0 [6][8] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 11.1% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2027 [6][8] Market Position - Hisense Visual leads the domestic market in television sales, with significant growth in high-end products such as Mini LED, which saw a shipment increase of 108.24% [7] - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the ongoing high-end transformation in the display market [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.007 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 271 million yuan, up 43.29% year-on-year [7] - The company is making significant progress in its global layout, enhancing supply chain resilience, and has completed the first phase of its logistics and production base in Europe [7] - The company has made notable breakthroughs in R&D innovation, particularly in robotic actuators, which are expected to become a new growth point [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 504 million, 651 million, and 792 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30, 23, and 19 times [7] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3.034 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.496 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.70% [6][8] - The net profit is expected to increase from 206 million yuan in 2023 to 792 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [6][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.54 yuan in 2023 to 2.07 yuan in 2027 [6][8] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a performance of -7% over the last 12 months, compared to a 39% increase in the CSI 300 index [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.535 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.94%, with a net profit of 205 million yuan, up 27.32% year-on-year [7] - The growth was driven by emerging product categories, with the mother and baby small appliances segment growing by 40.5% year-on-year [7] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence while improving profit margins through cost reduction and efficiency enhancement [7] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 422 million, 499 million, and 566 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20.2x, 17.1x, and 15.1x [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 4,712 million yuan in 2023, 4,758 million yuan in 2024, 5,420 million yuan in 2025, 6,050 million yuan in 2026, and 6,690 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 14.4%, 1.0%, 13.9%, 11.6%, and 10.6% respectively [6][8] - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 445 million yuan, decreasing to 288 million yuan in 2024, then increasing to 422 million yuan in 2025, 499 million yuan in 2026, and 566 million yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The company's gross margin improved to 37.6% in Q2 2025, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 54.41 yuan on August 28, 2025, with a circulating share capital of 1.52 billion shares and a total share capital of 1.57 billion shares [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown a rapid recovery in Q2 performance, with a focus on the "Culture + Technology" strategy, leading to significant revenue and profit growth [7][8] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.004 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.16%, and a net profit of 75 million yuan, up 56.81% year-on-year [7][8] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 26.34 billion yuan, 32.19 billion yuan, and 36.60 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 1.35 billion yuan, 1.70 billion yuan, and 1.89 billion yuan for the same years [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,938 million yuan, with a decline of 31.8% year-on-year, followed by a slight decrease of 4.9% in 2024, and a recovery of 42.9% in 2025 [6][9] - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be 101 million yuan, with a significant drop of 64.8% year-on-year, followed by a further decline of 36.0% in 2024, and a rebound of 108.2% in 2025 [6][9] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.25 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.16 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 0.31 yuan in 2025 [6][9] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 54.5 in 2023, 70.6 in 2024, and decreasing to 42.1 in 2025 [6][9] Business Strategy and Developments - The company is focusing on the full industry chain layout of cultural and sports tourism, with an emphasis on "Culture + Technology" [7][8] - The company has secured exclusive rights for the opening and closing ceremonies of the 2026 Aichi-Nagoya Asian Games and has been included in the national cultural export key project list [7][8] - The company has launched its own night tour IP "Tonight" series, introducing an innovative "multi-perspective immersive" viewing mode [7][8] - The company has formed a joint venture with Zhiyuan Robotics to explore the high-potential intersection of humanoid robots and cultural tourism [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing revenue pressure due to a contraction in demand, with a proactive tightening of engineering business operations. The revenue for 1H2025 was 3.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.23%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 47 million yuan, down 49.98% [7][9] - The overall gross margin improved to 24.68%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points, attributed to the company's focus on high-end markets and premium projects, as well as a 2.18% decrease in raw material costs [7][9] - The company has announced price increases for certain waterproofing products, which is seen as a response to raw material pressures and a move to combat low-price competition in the industry [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2025 is 6.48 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 5.17% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 with growth rates of 10.34% and 10.39% respectively [6][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 93 million yuan in 2025, with significant growth projected in the following years, reaching 264 million yuan by 2027 [6][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.08 yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.24 yuan by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 63.18x, 32.18x, and 22.35x for the next three years [6][10] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a performance of -4% over the last 12 months, compared to a 10% increase in the market benchmark [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth and an improving profitability trend, despite facing challenges in certain product categories and external market conditions [5][7] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 25.36 billion, 27.58 billion, and 30.23 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.45 billion, 3.33 billion, and 3.84 billion RMB [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 1H2025, the company reported revenue of 1.12 billion RMB, a decrease of 0.50% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.44 billion RMB, down 36.27% year-on-year [7] - The revenue breakdown shows that fish products generated 0.76 billion RMB (up 7.61%), poultry products 0.20 billion RMB (down 24.00%), and bean products 0.12 billion RMB (up 3.61%) [7] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 1H2025 were 29.45% and 10.02%, respectively, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [7] - The company’s operating expenses have increased, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios rising year-on-year [7] Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings for the company are as follows: - Revenue: 2,536 million RMB in 2025, 2,758 million RMB in 2026, and 3,023 million RMB in 2027 - Net profit: 245 million RMB in 2025, 333 million RMB in 2026, and 384 million RMB in 2027 - EPS is expected to be 0.54 RMB in 2025, 0.74 RMB in 2026, and 0.85 RMB in 2027 [6][8] Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratios are projected to be 23.3 in 2025, 17.1 in 2026, and 14.8 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][8] - The ROE is expected to be 16.2% in 2025, 20.3% in 2026, and 21.5% in 2027, suggesting strong returns on equity [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1,108.31 billion yuan in 1H2025, a decrease of 3.17% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.40 billion yuan, an increase of 3.24% year-on-year [7] - The company continues to optimize its business structure, with significant growth in new contracts in municipal, energy, and water conservancy sectors, contributing to the increase in infrastructure new contracts [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 47.76 billion yuan, 49.31 billion yuan, and 51.46 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 4.81, 4.66, and 4.46 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023A was 2,265.53 million yuan, with a growth rate of 10.2%, while the forecast for 2024A is 2,187.15 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.5% [5] - The net profit for 2023A was 54.26 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.5%, and is expected to decrease to 46.19 billion yuan in 2024A, a decline of 14.9% [5] - The company's EPS for 2023A was 1.31 yuan, projected to decrease to 1.11 yuan in 2024A, and then recover to 1.16 yuan in 2025E [5] Business Segments - In 1H2025, the company achieved revenues of 696.38 billion yuan from housing construction, 273.43 billion yuan from infrastructure, 131.88 billion yuan from real estate development, and 4.93 billion yuan from design, with respective year-on-year changes of -7.10%, 1.50%, 13.30%, and -9.00% [7] - The gross profit margins for these segments were 7.30%, 10.20%, 16.00%, and 16.20%, showing slight variations compared to the previous year [7] Order Situation - The company secured new contracts worth 2,326.5 billion yuan in 1H2025, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year, with housing construction, infrastructure, and design segments contributing 1,496.4 billion yuan, 823.7 billion yuan, and 6.4 billion yuan respectively [7] - Notably, the industrial plant segment within housing construction saw a significant increase in new contracts, amounting to 452.2 billion yuan, a growth of 16.2% [7] Cash Flow and Profitability - The operating cash flow for 1H2025 showed a net outflow of 82.83 billion yuan, which is a reduction of 25.94 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [7] - The net profit margin improved to 2.74%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company has experienced rapid expansion in its energy storage and robotics businesses, achieving significant global breakthroughs [8] - The company reported a revenue of 2.096 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 2.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 201 million yuan, down 24.22% year-on-year [8] - The company is focusing on lightweight, high-strength, and excellent heat dissipation performance in its energy storage products, which has garnered market attention [8] - The company has established deep cooperation with several leading robotics companies, securing multiple customer projects [8] - The company has made significant progress in its global strategy, with its Mexico base officially starting operations in June 2025 and its Thailand base breaking ground in July 2025 [8] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 522 million yuan, 628 million yuan, and 760 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 26.4, 22.0, and 18.2 [8] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.834 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.5%, followed by a decline of 8.8% in 2024, and a recovery with growth rates of 17.7%, 18.5%, and 19.4% in the following years [7] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 714 million yuan, with a significant drop of 41.7% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 25.4%, 20.4%, and 20.9% in the subsequent years [7] - The company's EPS is projected to be 0.77 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.45 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 0.55 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.80 yuan in the following years [7] - The company's ROE is expected to decline from 11.4% in 2023 to 6.3% in 2024, before gradually recovering to 11.1% by 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.47 billion yuan in 1H2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.60%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 40.21% to 123 million yuan [7] - The company continues to expand its product matrix across various sectors, including consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial applications, with significant new product launches [7] - High R&D investment remains a focus, with R&D expenses reaching 282 million yuan in 1H2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.62%, indicating a commitment to building technological barriers [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3.28 billion yuan in 2025, 4.15 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.01 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 362 million yuan, 546 million yuan, and 708 million yuan respectively [6][7] - The company’s revenue growth rates are projected at 27.7% for 2025, 26.6% for 2026, and 20.6% for 2027 [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.85 yuan in 2025, 1.28 yuan in 2026, and 1.66 yuan in 2027 [6] Market Performance - The company has shown a market performance of 94% over the last 12 months, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the semiconductor sector [4]