全球 Risk on ——1月全球大类资产策略 分析师：徐陈翼 SAC：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 3 0 3 0 0 0 3 分析师：张洲驰 SAC：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 4 0 7 0 0 0 4 分析师：王亦奕 SAC：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 2 0 3 0 0 0 2 证券研究报告 | 2026/1/27 核心观点 | 单元格内推荐程度：从左到右 | | | 增配 | 标配 | 低配 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短期 | | 人民币、铜、美股 | 中债、AH股、黄金 | 美债（不确定性）、美元 | | | 中期 | | 人民币、AH美股、铜 | 黄金、美债、中债 | 美元 | | | | 中长期-周期位置/胜率赔率 | 短期-近期变化 | 未来研判 | 其他潜在利好&风险 | | 全球景气 | | 中：复苏前中期 | 中：12月PMI看有向好迹象 | 中：震荡向上 | 美国：经济韧性不足 | | | | 美：触底修复，消费侧先行 | 美：消费侧向好 | 美：短期向好 | 中国：两会政策变化 | | 货币政策 | | 中国：长期降息周 ...

核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 美联储或许并不重要 证券研究报告 政策专题 / 2026.01.27 分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《生产、需求继续分化》 2026-01- 19 2. 《政策合力下，锚定服务消费增长新引 擎》 2026-01-19 3. 《日本低通胀破局》 2026-01-18 ❖ 市场聚焦美联储新任主席人选与降息路径，本质是期待降低全球融资成本、 拉动资本开支与需求复苏，但核心关键并非政策利率，而是长端美债收益率。 实体经济的扩张动力并非直接取决于央行的基准利率，而是与中长端无风险 利率相关度更高。 ❖ 而这里大概率会产生预期偏差，即无论美联储新任主席是谁、是否进行大规 模降息，中长端美债利率可能都难以显著回落。核心原因在于，长端美债的定 价逻辑发生了明显的变化，当前中长端美债利率的锚点已不再是联储政策， 而是美国财政的可持续性与美元的信用基础。 ❖ 特朗普上任以来的一系列举措，核心目的是化解高企的美国政府债务风险， 挽救美国财政的持续性。但"特朗普经济学"面临着"财政收支、通货膨胀、货 币宽松 ...

/ 利率｜开年机构行为的五点关注 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2026.01.27 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 郑艺鹏 zhengyp@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《信用 | 二永债可以继续拉久期吗？》 2026-01-26 2. 《转债 | 高估值下机构如何择券？ -2025Q4 公募持仓点评》 2026-01-25 3. 《期货｜关注反弹持续性》 2026-01-25 核心观点 ❖ 开年以来债市行为怎么看？银行增持动力的确强劲，而交易盘则相对谨慎， 券商在等待右侧，基金在寻求确定性，保险买入纯债整体符合季节性，此外 其他类和保险的行为体现理财规模在延续快速增长。 往后看，我们认为交易盘动能在逐渐恢复，其中券商对 3-10y 国债买入增多， 但对超长国债买入动能依旧不算强；基金恢复相对明显，但还是更青睐票息 思路；银行配置可能持续偏强，因此债市可以维持多头思维，短期内信用可 以更乐观。 ❖ 关注 1：银行开年买债超季节性，大行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the Robotaxi industry [2][10]. Core Insights - The Robotaxi industry is expected to experience rapid growth in the U.S. by 2026, driven by advancements from companies like Tesla and Waymo [6][5]. - Tesla has initiated public operations of its fully autonomous Robotaxi fleet in Austin, with plans for widespread application by the end of 2026 [6]. - Waymo is expanding its operational areas significantly, with plans to increase the number of cities it serves, including Miami and others [6]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Tesla's fully autonomous Robotaxi fleet began public service in Austin on January 22, 2026, with gradual increases in vehicle numbers planned [6]. - Waymo has expanded its operational area in Austin from 90 to 140 square miles and is set to launch services in additional cities [6]. Future Projections - By the end of 2026, Robotaxi services are anticipated to be widely adopted across the U.S., influencing related industries domestically [6]. - Tesla's Cybercab is expected to enter production in April 2026, with a projected cost of less than $0.20 per mile for large-scale operations [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Ponyo, Horizon Robotics, and XPeng Motors, while also suggesting to monitor other players like Didi Global, Uber, and Cao Cao Mobility [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the oil shipping industry, highlighting high market activity and potential for profit growth among key players [5][38]. Core Insights - The current demand surge is outpacing supply, with a focus on the price center for shipping rates [3][7]. - Supply and demand dynamics are being positively influenced by upstream production increases, geopolitical events, and tightening sanctions, suggesting that the price center for shipping rates is likely to continue rising [4][7]. - The oil shipping industry is experiencing high market activity, with companies poised for significant earnings releases [5][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Review - The current demand surge is characterized by a lack of substantial physical supply clearance, with a focus on the price center for shipping rates [3][7]. - Historical cycles show that significant supply clearance typically precedes high-demand periods, providing a stable foundation for subsequent price elasticity [6][14]. 2. Supply and Demand Drivers - Upstream production increases and geopolitical events are expected to support demand, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 2.61 million barrels per day as of January 2026 [29][39]. - The average age of oil tankers is projected to reach 25.9 years by 2025, indicating a potential for limited supply growth due to aging vessels [21][96]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the oil shipping industry is in a high-growth phase, with companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy benefiting significantly from increased shipping rates [5][38]. - The report anticipates that if market conditions improve further, valuations for oil shipping companies could increase, particularly in the Hong Kong market [5][38]. 4. Price Performance - The average shipping rate for VLCCs reached $94,000 per day in Q4 2025, marking the second-highest level since 2008, with fluctuations expected due to seasonal demand [33][34]. - The stock prices of oil shipping companies have shown resilience, indicating strong market confidence in the continuation of mid-term growth [34][36]. 5. Supply Dynamics - The report notes that the current order book for new vessels is insufficient to replace aging ships, with a significant portion of the fleet over 20 years old [84][96]. - The potential for physical removal of non-compliant vessels could lead to a tightening of supply, further supporting shipping rates [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Interest rates have a "range", while credit has no clear anchor, and the coupon is more certain. Compared with the yield lows in the second half of last year, the credit of over 3y has not fully recovered, with Tier 2 and perpetual bonds performing better than urban investment bonds [3]. - Compared with the time when the draft of the new regulations on public - fund sales solicitation was released in early September last year, the recovery of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, especially those over 3y, has been mediocre. In the previous unclear bond - market outlook, the strategy of extending duration for trading - type bonds was not favored [3]. - The supply pressure is not significant. Due to the Spring Festival factor, the issuance of credit bonds generally slows down in January and February. As of January 23, the issuance of non - financial credit bonds was 891.4 billion yuan, which is not large compared with previous years [3]. - The opening of amortized cost bond funds can still be exploited, which is beneficial for credit bonds with maturities of less than 2y and more than 5y. The amortized cost bond funds opened 257.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year and 264.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year. The products' closed - end periods are mainly over 5y and under 2y, which will continue to create new allocation demand for credit bonds and support the long - position market of credit bonds [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strong Credit Pattern Continues, High Demand for 3 - 5y and Tier 2/Perpetual Bonds - Since the beginning of the year, the credit spread has been passively compressed, and this situation continued last week. The 3 - 5y maturity performed the best. The yields of 3 - 5Y medium - term notes decreased by about 4 - 7bp; the yields of low - grade 3 - 4Y urban investment bonds decreased by about 5 - 10bp; the yields of 3 - 4Y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased by about 3 - 4bp [9]. - From the trading indicators, the credit - bond market is booming. The average trading duration of credit bonds has slightly increased to 2.54 years, the TKN trading proportion has continuously risen from 54.7% in the second week of this year to around 73.4%, and the low - valuation trading proportion has also risen above 70% [17]. - The trading volume of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has reached the highest level since September last year, showing higher popularity than urban investment bonds [18]. 3.2 Can the Strong Credit Pattern Continue? 3.2.1 Interest Rates Have a Range, Credit Is More Certain - Compared with interest rates, as interest rates are approaching the "lower limit", the downward rhythm of interest rates may slow down in the short term without other positive catalysts. Credit bonds have no absolute reasonable range, and the market still lacks confidence in long - term interest rates. Therefore, in the absence of a liquidity shock in the bond market, the coupon of credit bonds is more certain [20]. - Comparing with four time points (the end of last year, the yield lows of credit bonds in November and July last year, and the time when the draft of the new regulations on public - fund sales solicitation was released in early September last year), the performance of medium - and long - term credit bonds has been outstanding this year, especially the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have a clear catch - up market. Compared with the yield lows in November and July, the yields of long - term credit bonds still have room to decline, with Tier 2 and perpetual bonds performing better than urban investment bonds, while the short - end yields are already close to or lower than the corresponding points [21]. 3.2.2 The Impact of the New Regulations on Public - Fund Sales Has Not Been Fully Recovered - After the release of the draft of the new regulations in September last year, the market was generally worried that the funds of institutions such as wealth management and bank self - operation would be affected by the redemption regulations in the future and would no longer participate in Tier 2 and perpetual bonds through public - funds. As a result, the price ratio between 5Y AAA - Tier 2 bonds and medium - term notes widened by nearly 20bp from September to December last year. - The implementation of the new regulations on public - fund sales rates at the beginning of this year was better than expected, and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds had a recovery market. The price ratio between 5Y AAA - Tier 2 bonds and medium - term notes compressed by 2.6bp, and the 3Y variety compressed by about 3.7bp. Overall, the recovery of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has been mediocre, and they may continue to outperform in the future [23]. 3.2.3 The Supply Disturbance of Credit Is Not Significant - From the perspective of bond supply, the issuance of treasury bonds has increased significantly at the beginning of the year, and the primary supply pressure of the interest - rate bond market is greater than in previous years. To support the early implementation of fiscal policies, the issuance of government bonds may continue to increase in the last week of January and February. For credit bonds, due to the Spring Festival factor, the issuance generally slows down in January and February. As of January 23 this year, the issuance of non - financial credit bonds was 891.4 billion yuan, which is not large compared with previous years. Compared with interest - rate bonds, the supply pressure of credit bonds is smaller, which is likely to form a strong credit pattern [30]. 3.2.4 Exploiting the Opening of Amortized Cost Bond Funds - In the first quarter, a large number of amortized cost bond funds entered the intensive opening period again. Calculated based on the fund scale disclosed in the fourth - quarter report of 2025, the scales entering the opening period in January, February, and March were 81.1 billion yuan, 59.4 billion yuan, and 124 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 264.5 billion yuan (compared with 257.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year). - After the opening period, the products tend to allocate bonds with remaining maturities close to their closed - end periods. The closed - end periods of the products entering the opening period in the first quarter are mainly over 5y and under 2y, with scales of 129.7 billion yuan and 78.1 billion yuan respectively. - The re - allocation of amortized cost bond funds in the fourth quarter of last year was mainly concentrated in credit bonds, and this trend is expected to continue. On the one hand, it enhances the certainty of short - term credit, and on the other hand, it promotes the yields of long - term credit to continue to decline. Since last year, the long - term interest - rate game has been difficult, and the investment income and holding experience of interest - rate bond funds have been inferior to those of credit - bond funds. Therefore, amortized cost bond funds are likely to overweight credit bonds [34]. 3.3 How to View Institutional Behavior - Last week, insurance institutions increased their purchases of general - credit bonds, with a total net purchase of 7.6 billion yuan, mainly increasing the allocation of general - credit bonds with maturities under 3Y, with a new net purchase of 4 billion yuan. The allocation of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased, but the purchase of 5 - 10Y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds increased [38]. - Funds also increased their allocation of general - credit bonds, with a total net purchase of 42.3 billion yuan last week, a month - on - month increase of 11.3 billion yuan. The purchase duration has been slightly extended, with a slight increase in the allocation of 3 - 5Y varieties, and the net purchase of 5 - 10Y varieties turned positive for the first time this year. In terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, funds increased their holdings by 63.6 billion yuan last week, a month - on - month increase of 32.4 billion yuan, mainly increasing their holdings of 3 - 5Y varieties [40]. - The scale of wealth management increased compared with last week. As of January 18, the scale of bank wealth management was 31.57 trillion yuan, remaining basically flat month - on - month. Wealth management increased its holdings of general - credit bonds by 4.5 billion yuan, but the increase was lower than last week. Wealth management changed from net selling to net buying of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, mainly increasing the allocation of varieties with maturities under 1Y [42][44]. 3.4 Primary - Market Tracking: Increased Supply of Industrial Bonds and Other Financial Bonds - From January 19 to 25 last week, urban investment bonds still had a net outflow, with a net financing of - 25.4 billion yuan, and the net outflow scale decreased. The supply of industrial bonds increased, with a weekly net financing of 133.7 billion yuan [47]. - By province, the top three regions in terms of net financing of urban investment bonds this year are Jiangsu (10.1 billion yuan), Beijing (6.8 billion yuan), and Guangdong (6.7 billion yuan). The top three regions with net outflows are Tianjin (- 7.1 billion yuan), Chongqing (- 5.3 billion yuan), and Hunan (- 4.7 billion yuan) [49]. - By industry, the top three industries in terms of net financing of industrial bonds this week are Building Decoration (19 billion yuan), Food and Beverage (14.7 billion yuan), and Public Utilities (13.3 billion yuan) [51]. - This month, the weighted average issuance duration of urban investment bonds has extended to 3.57 years, while that of industrial bonds has shortened to 1.86 years, and the issuance proportion of bonds with maturities over 5y has significantly decreased. The primary - market issuance sentiment of urban investment bonds has significantly improved, with the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times increasing to 56%, a month - on - month increase of 14pct. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times in the issuance of industrial bonds increased to 22% [53][54]. - Two industrial bonds were postponed for issuance this week, with a total postponed issuance scale of 900 million yuan [57]. 3.5 Secondary - Market Tracking: Significant Increase in the Trading Proportion of 3 - 5y Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - The trading proportion of urban investment bonds with short maturities under 1y increased by 1pct compared with last week, that of industrial bonds increased by 3pct month - on - month, and that of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased by 2pct month - on - month, but the trading proportion of 3 - 5y increased by 11pct month - on - month [60]. - This week, the trading proportion of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with an implied rating of AA+ continued to increase. The trading proportion of urban investment bonds with a rating of AA(2) and below decreased by 1pct month - on - month compared with last week, that of industrial bonds with a rating of AA and below remained flat month - on - month, and that of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with a rating of AA+ increased by 5pct month - on - month [60].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [2][10] Core Insights - The report highlights that the deployment of Al Agent sandboxing is expected to create new demand for CPUs, driven by the need to control potential risks associated with Al Agents [6] - The report suggests that as Al Agents continue to develop, the associated sandbox technology will likely be adopted, leading to new growth opportunities for CPU manufacturers and related supply chains [6] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The report notes a recent market performance with a 20% increase [3] Key Companies and Investment Ratings - The report lists key companies with their investment ratings, including: - Haiguang Information: Market Cap 641.52 billion, EPS for 2024A is 0.83, with a PE of 332.53 [5] - Longxin Zhongke: Market Cap 77.39 billion, EPS for 2024A is -1.56 [5] - Tongfu Microelectronics: Market Cap 85.50 billion, EPS for 2024A is 0.45, with a PE of 125.20 [5] Industry Trends - The report discusses the increasing adoption of Al Agent sandboxing both domestically and internationally, with significant investments such as Meta's acquisition of Manus for over 2 billion USD [6] - The report emphasizes that the functionality of Al Agents is largely dependent on the richness and reliability of the tools they can access, with function calling being a core technology [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the Hong Kong real estate sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong residential market is stabilizing and showing signs of recovery, with new home sales volume approaching the peak levels of 2019, and second-hand home transactions reaching a new high since 2022. The inventory de-stocking cycle has significantly reduced from 125 months to 61 months [1][8]. - The retail property market is still under pressure, but rental declines are narrowing, and vacancy rates in core areas are decreasing. Office rents and occupancy rates are under pressure, with significant regional market differentiation [1][19][25]. - The residential market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by lower mortgage rates and an increase in rental yields. Over 80% of residential properties are projected to achieve a balance between supply and rental demand [1][34][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Hong Kong Real Estate Market Review - Residential transaction volumes are increasing, with new home sales reaching 21,000 units in 2025, a 99.1% increase from the cycle's bottom [8][12]. - The inventory pressure has eased, with the de-stocking cycle for new homes dropping significantly [16]. - Retail property rents are still adjusting, but the rate of decline is slowing, and some core areas are showing signs of recovery [19][21]. - Office rents have decreased by 21.1% since their peak in June 2019, with rising vacancy rates [25][26]. 2. Outlook for the Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The residential market is expected to continue its recovery, with structural differentiation being a key feature [34]. - The ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to support the Hong Kong real estate market's recovery [34][37]. - The proportion of properties achieving a balance between supply and rental demand is expected to increase, enhancing home buying demand [39][40]. - Talent attraction policies are anticipated to boost potential home buying demand as more skilled individuals move to Hong Kong [44][50]. 3. Valuation Elasticity of Hong Kong Property Companies - Current valuations of major Hong Kong property companies are at historically low levels, indicating potential for recovery [1][3]. - Companies with a higher proportion of development business and land reserves are expected to exhibit greater valuation elasticity [1][3]. - The top three property companies in terms of sales in 2025 are Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land, with significant year-on-year sales growth for Henderson and Sino [1][3].

Market Performance - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.11%[11] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.62%, with notable performance from small-cap indices[11] - Year-to-date, the CSI 300 Index is up 1.6%, while the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio has increased by 1.8%, yielding an excess return of 0.2%[23] Enhanced Fund Performance - For the CSI 300 enhanced fund, the minimum excess return was -0.48%, the median was 0.42%, and the maximum was 2.47% for the week[15] - The CSI 500 enhanced fund had a minimum excess return of -1.42%, a median of -0.12%, and a maximum of 1.56%[15] - The CSI 1000 enhanced fund reported a minimum excess return of -0.15%, a median of 0.72%, and a maximum of 3.15%[15] Sector Performance - The construction materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel sectors performed well this week, with weekly returns of 9.23%, 7.71%, and 7.31% respectively[12] - Conversely, the banking, telecommunications, and non-bank financial sectors underperformed, with weekly returns of -2.70%, -2.12%, and -1.45% respectively[12] Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with factor failure, model failure, and market style changes that could impact the effectiveness of the investment strategies employed[6][45]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - A timing model can be applied to commodities, and the report models the most market - concerned gold and crude oil. The model is more suitable for medium - term band trading rather than intraday high - frequency trading [2]. - The gold timing model has a sample - out interval from March 2019 to now, with 61 correct intervals and 17 incorrect intervals, and an interval win - rate of 78.21%. The crude oil timing model has 52 correct intervals and 11 incorrect intervals in the same sample - out period, with an interval win - rate of 82.54% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold Timing Model - In 2025, precious metals like gold and silver had a super - bull market. On January 20, 2026, the spot gold price exceeded $4700. The model aims to judge the future movement of gold in a complex macro - background. The target variable is COMEX gold due to its high liquidity and global - factor - dominated price [5]. - Factors include gold ETF holdings, ETF volatility, inventory, short and long positions, trading volume, global broad liquidity, other non - ferrous metal - related indicators, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, and COMEX gold futures technical indicators. After marginal processing of 196 original factors, there are 338 factors in total, and after screening, 138 daily - frequency, 27 weekly - frequency, and 25 monthly - frequency factors are retained [2][5]. - From March 2019 to now, the model has 61 correct intervals and 17 incorrect intervals with a 78.21% win - rate. Since the end of October 2025, the model has continuously output an upward view on gold [2][6]. 3.2 Crude Oil Timing Model - The target of the crude oil timing model is IPE Brent oil. Crude oil has relatively larger fluctuations and lower smoothness [8]. - Factors include the common factors with gold (such as gold - oil ratio and global liquidity), as well as different types of crude oil, different exchange crude oil, transportation index, Sino - US inventories, Chinese imports, US and OPEC production, crude oil ETF, refinery operating rate, futures positions, technical indicators, and zinc ingot price. After marginal processing of 281 original factors, there are 394 factors in total, and after screening, 133 daily - frequency, 22 weekly - frequency, and 45 monthly - frequency factors are retained [2][8]. - From March 2019 to now, the model has formed 52 correct intervals and 11 incorrect intervals, with an 82.54% win - rate. It was bullish from December 12, 2025, to January 9, 2026, and turned bearish on January 13, 2026 [8].