宏观月报 / 2025.07.16 ■ 证券研究报告 陈兴 分析师 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly(actsec.com 相关报告 1. 《通胀反弹动能不强 -- 5月美国通 胀数据解读》 2025-06-12 2. 《关税影响尚未显现 -- 4月美国通 胀数据解读》 2025-05-14 3. 《能源和服务通胀仍在降温 -- 3月 美国通胀数据解读》 2025-04-11 4. 《服务带动通胀回落 -- 2月美国通 2025-03-13 胀数据解读》 5. 《商品带动通胀暂反弹 -- 1月美国 通胀数据解读》 2025-02-13 核心观点 通胀如期反弹。6月CPI同比增速小幅反弹至2.7%,核心CPI同比也够升至 8 2.9%。从分项来看,本月能源同比降幅有所收窄,核心商品同比显著回升。能 源方面,电价走强,油价同比降幅收窄。一方面,电力价格已连续第5个月维 持在 1%附近,同比增速上行至 5.8%,或因数据中心用电需求增加,叠加美国 电网设备老化导致停电。另一方面,6月中东局势升级支撑油价回升,叠加去 年同期基数走低,汽油项 ...

财通证券 CAITONG SECURITIES 作造 S0160521120002 SAC : 分析师:张洲弛 S0160524070004 2025年6月25日 前： T E 证券研究报告 品及不完全年生平台 结论 | 单元格内推荐程度： 从左到右 | | | 增配 | 标配C | 代理 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短期 | | H股科技、A股、H股红利 | 铜、美债、美股、黄金、中债 | 美元 | | | 中期 | | H股科技、AH股 | 黄金、美债、铜、中债、美股 | 美元 | | | | 中长期-周期位置 | 短期-近期变化 | 未来研判 | 其他潜在利好&风险 | | 全球景气 | | 中: 景气逐步修复 | 中:超跌后有所缓和 | 中:震荡向上 | 美国:景气弱于预期,特朗普新政策冲击/美 | | | | 美:高位+逐步回落 | 美: 景气低于预期 | 美：景气或震荡走弱 | 国内政波澜 | | 货币政策 | | 中国:长期降息周期中 美+欧:降息周期初期 | 美国偏观望，较市场预期更鹰 | 美国:美联储等待政策和降息不确定性落地,市 ...

Group 1: Policy Changes - The central bank and six departments issued guidelines to boost and expand consumption, highlighting three key changes in consumption policy[3] - The focus is shifting from goods consumption to service consumption, with increased emphasis on supporting service sectors[10] - The guidelines support the listing of quality consumption enterprises, indicating a dual shift in financing and income expansion policies[26] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In May, retail sales of goods grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while the service production index showed a weaker growth of 6.2%[12] - Urban residents' per capita annual property income grew by only 2.9% in 2023, significantly lower than the 8.7% compound growth from 2015 to 2021[24] - The guidelines propose a new 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program to enhance service consumption infrastructure[18] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Uncertainties in consumer expectations may affect the effectiveness of consumption policies[5] - The overseas economic environment could influence the pace of policy implementation, given the complexities in global markets[31] - The ability of capital markets to sustainably increase residents' income remains uncertain, with potential volatility in market performance[31]

Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Value Added Discrepancy - Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of power generation has consistently lagged behind the growth rate of industrial value added, with industrial value added increasing by 6.3% from January to May, while power generation only grew by 0.3%[7] - The power generation data used refers only to large-scale industrial power generation enterprises, which excludes smaller enterprises that contribute less than 8% to total electricity consumption, thus limiting their impact on overall power generation growth[3] - The divergence between power generation and industrial value added is particularly pronounced in sectors such as electrical machinery, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and general equipment, where power consumption growth is significantly lower than industrial value added growth[23] Group 2: Economic Conditions and Industry Performance - The current economic environment shows a clear differentiation in performance between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises experiencing better profitability compared to smaller ones in the electrical machinery, chemical, non-metallic mineral, and general equipment sectors[35] - Many manufacturing sectors are facing overcapacity, with capacity utilization rates historically low, indicating a potential shift towards more efficient and advanced enterprises as less efficient capacities are phased out[28] - The ongoing divergence between power generation and industrial value added is expected to persist, reflecting weak demand and overcapacity in the industry, similar to conditions observed during the supply-side structural reforms in 2015[36]

Revenue and Expenditure Targets - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 8.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, below the annual target of 1.3%[10] - The revenue completion rate for the first four months was 36.7%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years[10] - General public budget expenditure from January to April reached 9.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, exceeding the target growth rate of 4.4%[16] Government Financing and Deficit - The narrow fiscal deficit for January to April was 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a usage rate of 16.8%[24] - The broad fiscal deficit reached 2.65 trillion yuan, with a usage rate of 19%, slightly above the average of 17.8% for the past five years[27] - Net financing of ordinary government bonds in the first five months was 1.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.4% of the annual central deficit target, the highest since 2015[30] Special Bonds and Policy Support - The issuance of special bonds has been slower this year, with a progress rate of 37.1% in the first five months, lower than the levels of 2022 and 2023[32] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at 1.3 trillion yuan, with 363 billion yuan issued by the end of May, achieving a completion rate of 27.9%[32] - The proportion of special bonds used for land reserves has increased, with nearly 110 billion yuan issued, accounting for 7% of special bonds[36] Future Policy Outlook - The estimated revenue gap for broad fiscal income in 2025 is approximately 550 billion yuan, indicating a potential need for additional policy support if revenue performance does not improve[43] - New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, aimed at supporting investment in urban renewal and infrastructure projects[56]

宏观月报 / 2025.06.16 消费回升能持续吗?_ ■ 证券研究报告 陈兴 分析师 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号:S0160523080004 majun(a)ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《产能利用率稳步回复 -- 2023年 12月经济数据解读》 2024-01-17 2. 《谁在带动工业生产回升 ? -- 2024 年 1-2 月经济数据解读》 2024-03-18 3.《5.3%的增速由谁拉动? -- 一季度 经济数据解读》 2024-04-16 核心观点 4. 《地产新政,影响多大? -- 地产政 策及4月经济数据解读》 2024-05-17 5. 《施工为何显著回落 ? -- 5月经济 数据解读》 2024-06-17 6.《放缓的症结何在? -- 二季度经济 数据解读》 2024-07-15 点。不过以旧换新补贴资金余额或已不足,后续需观察相应政策续作时点和力 度等。二是外需面临走弱。此前受益于抢出口和抢转口的助力,出口保持在中 高增速区间,但考虑到对等关税豁免将到期,抢出口力度或超弱,需关注出口 ...

相关报告 ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 那重阳 分析师 SAC 证书编号： S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 于朔 SAC 证书编号: S0160524120006 yushuo@ctsec.com 联系人 孙瀚栋 sunhd@ctsec.com 中小盘/ 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.06.11 特斯拉中国发布引荐奖励,Cybertruck 可 表 1: 重点公司投资评级: 核心观点 | 表 1: 重点公司投资评级: | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 公司 | 总市值 | 收盘价 | | EPS (元) | | | PE | | 投资评级 | | | | (亿元) | (06.10) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | ୧01689 | 拓普集团 | 819.39 | 47.15 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 2.63 ...

宏观月报 / 2025.06.09 能源价格是主要拖累__ ■ 证券研究报告 陈兴 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 上月。分行业来看,国际原油价格下行影响国内石油相关行业价格环比下降, 油气开采行业价格下降 5.6%,精炼石油产品制造价格下降 3.5%,化工行业价 格下降 1.2%。另外,煤炭开采行业价格下降 3.0%,煤炭加工价格下降 1.1%, 钢铁和非金属矿价格均下降 1.0%。 % 风险提示:政策变动,经济恢复不及预期,极端气候影响超预期。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! 核心 CPI 同比改善,PPI 同比降幅继续走扩。CPI 方面,5月 CPI 环比由 * 涨转降,同比降幅持平上月,能源价格是主要拖累。不过,核心 CPI 同比涨幅 比上月扩大 0.1 个百分点,消费需求仍然有所改善。从各分项当月同比来看, 除交通通信价格下降4.3%以外,其他七大类价格均有所上涨,其中食品烟酒 类价格同比上涨 0.1%。PPI 方面,5月 PPI 环比降幅持平上月,同比降幅走 扩0.6个百分点。主要原因仍然是国际原油价格下行,同时,谋炭需求处于淡 李,多她 ...

宏观月报 / 2025.06.07 ■ 证券研究报告 陈兴 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 马乐怡 联系人 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《就业不断下修 -- 4 月美国非农数 2025-05-03 据解读》 2. 《就业暂时回暖 -- 3月美国非农数 据解读》 2025-04-05 3. 《就业市场广泛降温 -- 2月美国非 农数据解读》 2025-03-08 4. 《就业下修，薪资强劲——1月美国 非农数据解读》 2025-02-08 5. 《零售支撑就业改善 -- 2024 年 12 月美国非农数据解读》 2025-01-11 夜心观点 就业前值再下修,劳动参与率下降。5月新增非农就业人数下降至 13.9万 * 人,同时 3 月和 4 月合计下修 9.5 万人。今年以来,新增非农就业人数持续下 调,或意味着当前就业水平存在一定程度的高估。分行业来看,新增就业主要 来源从政府转向服务业。5月服务业新增就业较上月提升,政府裁员影响仍在 持续显现,联邦政府就业自1月以来已减少 5.9万人。而制造业更容易受到关 税政策的影响,新增就 ...

——宏观备忘录第 2 期 证券研究报告 宏观周报 / 2025.06.01 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《抢出口接棒抢转口——实体经济图 谱 2025 年第 20 期》 2025-05-31 2. 《出口可能依然不差——5 月经济数 据前瞻》 2025-05-31 3. 《价格回落势头渐止——5 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2025-05-31 核心观点 市场已经见证了宏观政策对风险偏好的显著影响，但对于政策的理解，却往往 陷入基于历史经验归因的窠臼。事实上，当前宏观政策框架较以往发生了明显 变化，我们在深度报告《央行新框架，对利率有何影响？》中对货币政策的框 架更新已有深入分析，本文我们把视角放在更为重要的财政政策。 ❖ 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，政策分析存在偏差，历史经验失效。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 跟着财政做配置 ❖ 财政：逆周期还是顺周期？财政政策在宏观调控中是逆周期调节的主要手 段，但现实中财政政策的逆周期特征可能并不显著，甚至往往还会体现出顺周 期性的特点。特别地，从广义财政支出的增长来看，近几年甚至还赶 ...