7 月 8 日，1 年期国债到期收益率上行 5.0bp 至 1.58%，10 年期国债到期收益率上行 1.5bp 至 2.29%，1 年期与 10 年期国债期限利差收窄 4bp 至 71bp。1 年期国开债到期收益率上行 4.0bp 至 1.75%，10 年期国开债到期收益率上行 1.9bp 至 2.38%。DR001 下行 0.8bp 至 1.75%，DR007 上行 1.2bp 至 1.82%。国债期货 10 年期主力合约跌 0.24%，5 年期主力 合约跌 0.19%，2 年期主力合约跌 0.08%。3 年期 AAA 级信用利差下行 0.51bp 至 16.16bp，3 年期 AA-AAA 级等级利 差下行 1.00bp 至 14.00bp。 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------|-----------------|----------|--------|------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have experienced declines of -4.57% and -5.11% respectively over the past month, with a 12-month decline of -9.10% and -12.00% respectively, suggesting a bearish market sentiment [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on structural opportunities within a broadly fluctuating market environment [3] Group 2 - Infrastructure investment is expected to show a moderate recovery in the third quarter, with the report highlighting that the current manufacturing capacity utilization rate is at a historical low, indicating a tendency for overcapacity in the manufacturing sector [4][5] - The report notes that consumer recovery is anticipated to remain weak, with retail sales growth projected between 4.0% and 5.5% in the third quarter, influenced by various factors including consumer confidence and spending habits [9][20] - Exports are expected to maintain some support in the third quarter, driven by low base effects from the previous year and improvements in overseas demand, with a projected growth rate of 5% to 8% [12][30] Group 3 - The report discusses the structural characteristics of social financing, noting that in May, new social financing increased by 2.06 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations, with government bonds being a significant contributor [16][30] - The report highlights that the real estate sector is expected to have a short-term stabilizing effect on sales due to recent policy changes, although long-term trends remain uncertain [39] - The manufacturing sector is facing challenges due to low profit expectations and high debt levels, which may limit the effectiveness of policy stimuli aimed at boosting investment [39][30] Group 4 - The report suggests that the current macroeconomic environment is conducive to equity asset allocation, with a focus on structural opportunities, particularly in durable goods exports such as ships, automobiles, and home appliances [33][42] - The report indicates that the valuation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is attractive compared to global indices, with the price-to-earnings ratios of the Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index being significantly lower than those of major overseas indices [64][68]

证券研究报告 基金市场 年度策略研判之回头看,组合调整 7 只品种 2024 年 07 月 05 日 上证指数-上证基金指数走势图 基金指数 上证指数 -17% -7% 3% 13% 2023-07 2023-10 2024-01 2024-04 2024-07 主要指数表现(涨跌幅%) | | | | |----------|-------|----------| | 指数名称 | 60 日 | 年初至今 | | 上证指数 | -4.99 | -0.84 | | 中证基金 | -2.07 | -1.46 | | 股票基金 | -6.89 | -7.46 | | 混合基金 | -5.00 | -4.86 | | 债券基金 | 0.62 | 2.06 | | 货币基金 | 0.30 | 0.98 | 刘鋆 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519090001 liujun23@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 基金深度报告:香港互认基金梳理专题 2024-07-02 2 基金行业 2024 年年度策略:东郊雨后好风烟 2023-12-17 3 基金周报(20231127-20231201):汇添富刘江 卸 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the continuation of a strong US dollar trend and a sideways consolidation in the A-share market [3][18] - A-share and Hong Kong stock valuations remain relatively low, supported by intensive policy measures, but the market is expected to continue its consolidation due to a lack of incremental capital [6][10] Equity Market - In June, the PMI remained in the contraction zone at 49.5, indicating a passive inventory accumulation state in the manufacturing sector [10][22] - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises in China showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.4% from January to May 2024, with May's monthly growth slowing to 0.7% [10][22] - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend and defensive sectors such as coal and public utilities, as well as upstream resource sectors benefiting from improved external demand [10][22] Bond Market - The report notes an increase in cross-quarter funding demand, leading to an overall decline in interest rates, with the central bank increasing reverse repo operations [26][31] - As of June 28, the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 5.13 basis points to 2.21%, indicating a downward trend in long-term interest rates [61][26] Commodity Market - The commodity market experienced more declines than increases, with LME zinc leading the gains [19][49] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict, have provided some support for oil prices, while the overall market remains volatile [19][49] Key Data and Events Outlook - The report anticipates significant events such as the French parliamentary elections and the US non-farm payroll data for June, which could impact market sentiment [54][55]

Strategy Overview - The report highlights a market contraction with a focus on structural opportunities as the A-share market continues to experience fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.59% and remaining below 3000 points [1][36] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased by 8.31% to 608.19 billion yuan, indicating a lack of new capital inflow [1][36] - The resource sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, retail, and steel, showed positive performance amid expectations of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][36] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2949.9 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.73% to 8695.55 points [1][36] - The large-cap blue-chip indices outperformed smaller indices, with the dividend index rising by 0.49% [1][36] - The valuation of all A-shares is at a price-to-book ratio of 1.38, lower than 99.5% of the past decade, suggesting an increase in long-term investment value [1][36] Industry Insights - The real estate sector showed signs of stabilization due to the 517 real estate policy, with the top 100 real estate companies achieving sales of 438.93 billion yuan in June, a month-on-month increase of 36.3% [22] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 key cities was 14,423 yuan per square meter, continuing a downward trend [22] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sustainability of policy effects in the real estate market, as the second-hand housing prices have not yet stabilized, adding uncertainty to the sector [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment in Q3 2024: high-dividend large-cap blue chips, resource sectors, export industries, and the AI industry chain [27][43][46] - The resource sector is expected to benefit from improved external demand and potential price increases for non-ferrous metals and precious metals [27][45] - The export industry is anticipated to maintain resilience due to inventory replenishment in the U.S. and demand for durable consumer goods [29] Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment is projected to be in a recovery phase, with moderate economic growth and a favorable monetary environment for equity asset allocation [27] - The report notes that the recent expectations of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have influenced market sentiment and commodity prices [42]

免责声明 本报告信息来源于公开资料，本公司对该信息的准确性、完整性或可靠性不作任何保证。本公司对已发报告无更 新义务，若报告中所含信息发生变化，本公司可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更 新或修改。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-----------|-----------------|---------|--------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 晨会纪要 晨会纪要 | | | 2024 年 | 07 月 | 08 日 | | | | 市场数据 | | | | | 晨会聚焦 | | 指数名称 | | 收盘 | 涨跌 | % | 一、财信研究观点 | | 上证指数 | | 2949.93 | -0.26 | | 【市场策略】市场缩量调整，关注结构性机会 | | 深证成指 | | 8695.55 | 0.25 | | | | 创业 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to adjust, with the overall market represented by the Wind All A Index declining by 1.31% to close at 4137.93 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.83% to 2957.57 points [6][4] - The engineering machinery sector showed resilience, experiencing an upward trend despite the overall market decline [6][4] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with trading volumes below 600 billion yuan for two consecutive days, indicating a potential continued consolidation phase [6][4] Company Tracking - Ningde Times (300750.SZ) launched its commercial power battery brand "Tianxing," which includes solutions for logistics and delivery, featuring high charging speeds and long battery life [19][37] - Qingdao Kingwan (002094.SZ) expects a 30-50% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, driven by significant growth in new materials and related businesses [20][38] - Cangzhou Mingzhu (002108.SZ) has commenced production on two production lines for lithium-ion battery separators, aiming to enhance market share and product competitiveness [21][39] Economic Dynamics - In Hunan Province, over 730,000 people traveled in and out of the port in the first half of 2024, marking a 2.7-fold increase compared to the same period in 2023, with foreign visitors increasing fivefold [24][42] - The logistics index for e-commerce in China rose by 0.9 points in June, indicating a recovery in logistics activities [32][16] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend large-cap blue-chip stocks, resource sectors, export industries, and the AI industry chain as potential investment opportunities in the current market environment [6][4]

证券行业金融科技发展趋势 证券行业深度 | 2024 年 06 月 28 | 日 | | | | | | | | | | |----------------------------|-----------|---------------|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| | 评级 | | 同步大市 | | | | | | | | | | | 评级变动: | 维持 | | | | | | | | | | 行业涨跌幅比较 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券 Ⅱ | 沪深 300 | | | | | | | | | | 33% | | | | | | | | | | | | 23% | | | | | | | | | | | | 13% | | | | | | | | | | | | 3% | | | | | | | | | | | | -7% | | | | | | | | | | | | -17% | | | | | | | | | | | | 2023-06 2023-09 | 2023-12 | 2024-03 | | | | | | | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of the automotive industry, noting a slight increase in the total import and export value of automotive goods, which reached $26.38 billion in May 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2] - The report also emphasizes the strong sales performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs), particularly BYD, which achieved sales of 342,000 units in June 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.2% [4][31] - The storage chip market is experiencing price stability, with small capacity SSD prices showing a decline, while DRAM prices remain relatively stable [27][30] Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector's import value was $6.07 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 11.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, while the export value was $20.31 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [2] - The report notes that the logistics industry in China maintained a growth index of 51.6% in June, indicating continued expansion despite some pressures on demand [20] - The storage chip market is characterized by a stable pricing environment, with NAND product prices showing minor fluctuations and DRAM prices remaining steady [27][30] Company Tracking - BYD's NEV sales reached 1.613 million units in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.5% [4][31] - The report mentions that Dongpeng Beverage plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 3% of the total share capital due to funding needs [32] - Aoxin announced the completion of capital increase for its Thai subsidiary, which is a strategic move to enhance its global market presence [33]

2024 年 07 月 04 日 证券研究报告 【市场策略】市场全天震荡调整，大消费板块逆势上扬 【宏观经济】跌破 7.31，离岸人民币对美元汇率再下挫 【财经要闻】财政部：设备更新贷款财政贴息资金实行"两个预拨"机 制 【行业动态】2024 年 1-5 月广告市场花费同比上涨 2.9% 【公司跟踪】千红制药（002550.SZ）：预计 2024H1 归母净利润为 1.83 亿元，同比增长 53.57% 四、湖南经济动态 近期研究报告集锦 晨会纪要 【宏观策略类】经济金融高频数据周报（06.24-06.28） 晨会聚焦摘要： 一、市场层面 （1）分市场来看，代表全部 A 股的万得全 A 指数跌 0.54%，收于 4192.74 点，代表蓝筹股的上证指数跌 0.49%，收于 2982.38 点，代表硬科技的科创 50 指数涨 0.38%，收于 701.78 点，代表创新成长的创业板指数跌 0.29%，收于 1660.12 点，代表创新型中小企业的北证 50 指数跌 1.97%，收于 692.85 点，总体来看，硬科技板块风 格跑赢，但创新型中小企业风格跑输。 （2）分规模来看，代表超大盘股的上证 50 指数跌 ...