央地支持政策持续发力,销售企稳态势有望延续 房地产市场周报(06.24-06.30) 投资要点 本周观点:由于时值年中业绩窗口期,叠加近期政策利好持续释放, 商品房销售出现企稳迹象。本周(6.24-6.30)30 大中城市新房销售面 积环比增幅达 66.68%,同比降幅亦收窄至 0.74%。此外,本周各能级 城市也走出了此前的分化行情,一二三线城市销售面积环比均大幅上 涨。从政策面来看,住建部近日召开保交房政策培训视频会议,会议 强调要有力有序有效推进保交房各项工作;央行近日召开的 2024 年 第二季度例会也明确,要加大对"市场+保障"的住房供应体系的金 融支持力度。住建部与央行的部署释放出房地产支持政策还将继续加 码的积极信号,市场预期有望得到进一步提振。地方层面,北京进一 步优化房地产政策,如将首套房最低首付比例从 30%调整至 20%,预 计后续一线城市相关政策有望继续加码。整体来看,"517"新政以 来各级政府持续加码房地产政策,近期商品房销售也出现明显改善, 期待 7 月份延续企稳态势,但考虑到上半年商品房销售的绝对量仍处 于低位,市场拐点的出现可能还需要一定时间。 本周房地产政策动态及市场重要消 ...

策略专题 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | % | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 上证指数 | 1.31 | -3.79 | 25.97 | | 沪深 300 | 5.29 | 10.04 | -2.05 | 相关报告 3 宏观经济研究周报（06.10-06.14）：国内 5 月 CPI 温和上升，美国 5 月 CPI 回落 2024-06-17 投资要点 全球经济增速有所上行，2024 年 06 月 28 日波罗的海干散货指数 (BDI)当周平均值为 1988.8 点，较上周增加 22.20 点；通胀水平高位 震荡，CRB 商品价格指数当周平均值为 291.98 点，较上周减少 2.36 点。 国内经济增长动能平稳，2024年06月中国官方制造业PMI为49.5%， 较上月持平；通胀趋于平稳，2024 年 06 月 20 日中国猪肉当周平均 价为 28.74 元/公斤，较上周增加 0.32 元/公斤。 2024 年 06 月 28 日中国高炉当周开工率 ...

Global Economy and Inflation - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reflects global economic conditions, with a recent average value of 1988.8 points, an increase of 22.20 points from the previous week, indicating a rising economic activity [47][23]. - The CRB Commodity Price Index averaged 291.98 points, decreasing by 2.36 points from the previous week, suggesting fluctuations in commodity prices that may impact inflation trends [49][27]. - Brent crude oil prices averaged $85.81 per barrel, up by $0.69 from the previous week, indicating potential inflationary pressures due to rising energy costs [50][29]. Domestic Economy and Inflation - China's official manufacturing PMI for June 2024 is 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating a stable economic growth momentum [53]. - The average price of pork in China increased to 28.74 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.32 yuan from the previous week, which may influence consumer price index (CPI) trends [59][70]. - The OECD Composite Leading Indicator for China increased to 100.6284 points, reflecting a slight improvement in economic outlook [34]. Industrial Production - The national high furnace operating rate was reported at 83.13%, an increase of 0.30 percentage points from the previous week, indicating stable industrial activity [64]. - The operating rate for rebar steel mills rose to 44.94%, up by 1.65 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in the construction sector [86]. Investment Trends - Real estate investment is showing signs of strength, with a weekly average transaction area of 55.16 million square meters in 30 major cities, an increase of 21.91 million square meters from the previous week [118]. - Infrastructure investment is also on the rise, with excavator sales in May 2024 reaching 8518 units, an increase of 1926 units year-on-year, indicating robust construction activity [106]. Consumer Trends - Essential consumer goods remain stable, with the textile price index in Keqiao increasing to 105.16 points, up by 0.31 points from the previous week, reflecting steady demand in the textile sector [13][100]. - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 78,600 units, an increase of 34,200 units from the previous week, indicating a rebound in consumer spending on durable goods [141]. Emerging Industries - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased to 5436.97 points, down by 213.47 points, indicating a decline in the semiconductor sector's performance [130]. - The DXI Index, which reflects the market conditions for DRAM, increased to 35130.13 points, up by 1406.72 points, suggesting a mixed outlook for the semiconductor market [131].

5 国内制造业 PMI 持平，美国核心 PCE 符合预期 本周观点：国内方面，6 月份，受高温多雨、传统动能疲软和政策落 地时滞性影响，制造业PMI保持在49.5%，连续两个月处于收缩状态， 显示国内经济复苏基础需进一步巩固。供需两端均小幅下降，需求端 的新订单指数连续收缩，出口订单持平，国内需求放缓为主要原因。 高技术和装备制造业PMI增长加快，而高耗能和消费品制造业景气度 下降，反映出新旧动能转换加速，但传统动能对需求的拖累仍需关注。 另外，大型企业 PMI 下降，中小型企业 PMI 上升，但大型企业扩张、 中小企业收缩的分化依旧。往后看，政策落实将有助于经济恢复向中 小企业传导，但房地产市场低迷和出口不确定性可能影响小型企业 PMI的恢复，进而可能持续对制造业PMI形成制约，第三季度制造业 PMI 或将于荣枯线处徘徊。1-5 月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润总 额同比增长 3.4%，较 1-4 月份回落 0.9 个百分点。从量、价、成本三 个关键因素分析，PPI降幅缩小和营收改善有助于降低成本，但去年 同期基数较高和生产增长放缓仍导致本月工业利润增速下降。具体到 行业，中下游行业利润增速放缓，而上游采矿业 ...

行业月度点评 电子 | 2024 年 06 月 24 | | | | | | | | | | | |---------------------------|-----------------|--------------|-----------|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| | 评级 | | 领先大市 | | | | | | | | | | | 评级变动: | 维持 | | | | | | | | | | 行业涨跌幅比较 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点: | | | | | | | | | % | 1M | 3M 12M | | | | | | | | | | 电子 | 3.49 | -2.90 -11.39 | | | | | | | | | | 沪深 300 | -4.53 | -1.92 -10.02 | | | | | | | | | | 何晨 | | 分析师 | | | | | | | | | | 执业证书编号 | :S0530513080001 | | | | | | | | | | | hechen@hnchasin ...

行业月度点评 计算机 | 重点股票 | 2023A | | | 2025E | 评级 | |--------------------|---------------|-----------------|-------|-------------------|-----------| | EPS | PE (倍) | PE (倍) | (元) | PE (倍) | | | 海光信息 | 134.68 | 100.67 | 1.04 | 70.24 | 增持 | | 金山办公 | 87.63 | 70.34 | 4.60 | 54.37 | 买入 | | 资料来源: | 财信证券 | | | | | | (按照 2024-06-26 | 收盘价计算) | | | | | | 投资要点: | | | | | | | | | ,行业排名第 | 15 | 位。上月( 2024 | 年 5 月 | | 27 日 | 6 月 26 | | 3.77% | ,沪深 300 | 指数 | | 下跌 | ,创业板指下跌 | | | 3.91% | ,落后 | | 上证指数 | | 300 指数 | 0.54 | 个百分点,在申万 ...

证券研究报告 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 图表目录 内容目录 8 风险提示 此报告仅供内部客户参考 -2- 1 核心观点（科创板八条落地，A股延续磨底） 周初公布的 5 月固定资产投资及消费数据表现平淡，叠加 MLF 及 LPR 未调降，债市积 极情绪得以延续。后半周受资金面收敛影响，止盈盘带动债市回调。当前长端下行空间 短期受限，建议积极布局中短端机会。 此报告仅供内部客户参考 -3- 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 在周五美国 PMI 数据超预期增长后，贵金属价格出现明显回调。本周主要聚焦 PCE数据 能否如期改善，从而带动贵金属打开向上空间。 上周（06.17-06.21）资产表现为：美股>港股＞债券>大宗商品>A 股。国内方面，5 月固定资产投资及社零数据延续温和运行，内需改善仍有进一步提升空间。科创板八条 新规落地，后续科创板上市公司并购重组有望提速。海外方面，英国、瑞士央行接连放 鸽，美国零售数据环比走弱。整体来看，上周 ICE WTI 原油表现亮眼，领涨其他类型资 产，涨幅 2.38%。紧随其后的为法国 CAC40 指数、美国 10 年期国债期货和纳斯达克指 数等 ...

Trend Force 公众号 7 月 1 日消息，根据全球市场研究机构 Trend Force 集邦咨询最新报告指出，今年整体环境虽 受 AI 预算影响，导致全年通用型服务器（generalserver）成长不如预期，但近期相关零部件，如基板管理控制器（BMC, Board Management Controller）、新款 CPU 等，基于服务器新平台的导入，OEMs 与 CSPs 均出现不错的采购动力；此 外，在 ODMs 供应链的调查也发现，服务器出货除第一季呈现淡季外，第二季与第三季有呈现季增的趋势。 从供应链角度来看，OEMs 与 CSPs 在 CPU 准备上也较以往积极，除 Intel Sapphire Rapids 与 Emerald Rapids 均呈 现季增外，AMDBergamo 与 Genoa 也受惠云端动能加大拉货力道。在 BMC 部分，更得利于量产在即的 GB200、中 系业者备货动能提升，纷纷于第二季底与第三季拉大订单规模。Trend Force 集邦咨询预期，DRAM 位元出货量将优于 原本预期，且 DDR5 占比将在第三季提升至 60%大关。 根据 Trend Force 集 ...

Group 1 - The report reviews the top ten stocks for the second quarter of 2024, with a cumulative return of -3.98%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and other indices [38][39] - The top performing stocks include Huadian Co., Ltd. (+22.60%), Stone Technology (+14.60%), and Jiuli Special Materials (+7.16%), while the worst performers were Runze Technology (-22.77%) and Kain Technology (-20.05%) [38][39] - The report indicates that the A-share market showed weak fluctuations in the second quarter, with blue-chip indices outperforming growth indices [38][39] Group 2 - For the third quarter of 2024, the report suggests a focus on structural opportunities, with the Chinese asset market showing a cost-performance advantage [13][24] - The report highlights four main investment themes: resource sector, high-dividend blue-chip stocks, export industry chain, and AI industry chain [24][41] - The resource sector is expected to benefit from improved external demand and supply constraints, particularly in non-ferrous metals and precious metals [14][24] Group 3 - Jiuli Special Materials is the largest domestic producer of industrial stainless steel seamless pipes, benefiting from increased capital expenditure in the energy sector [27][45] - Jianlin Home is a leading manufacturer of high-quality kitchen and bathroom fixtures, with strong customer loyalty and a high proportion of foreign clients [28][30] - Stone Technology has seen a significant increase in market share in the domestic robot vacuum market, with a strong growth trajectory expected [50][31] Group 4 - Anhui Heli is a leading domestic forklift manufacturer, with steady growth in revenue and profit, and a strong position in the global market [32][34] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is expanding its market presence through strategic partnerships and investments in refining and chemical projects [35][53] - Muyuan Foods is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the pig farming cycle, with expectations of increased profitability [55][72] Group 5 - Proya Cosmetics is focusing on product innovation and marketing strategies to enhance brand growth and market share [57][74] - Unisplendour is leveraging the growth in AI and cloud computing to expand its market presence and improve profitability [60][75] - Huadian Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for AI servers and advanced PCB technologies [63][77]

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