证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|家用电器（2133） 从 TCL 看中国彩电份额＆盈利提升之路 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月06日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 TCL 电子于年初发布股份奖励计划，且前期披露 2024H1 业绩预告，引发市场关注。当前 TCL 电子彩电业务海内外份额持续提升，经营趋势向好，且公司聚焦中高端突破，产品结构不断优 化，价格指数不断提升，后续公司彩电均价相对海外龙头仍有提升空间。剔除非经常损益， TCL 电子扣非净利率恢复至 1%左右，我们认为公司有望凭借产品升级、海外扩张、效率提升 进一步改善彩电盈利能力，且公司具备较好产业链资源，产业协同有望为稳健经营保驾护航。 |分析师及联系人 管泉森 孙珊 莫云皓 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590523110003 SAC：S0590523120001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 14 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月06日 家用电器 从 TCL 看中国彩电份额＆盈利提升之路 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 | 行业专题研究 | 家朋电器（2133） 从 TCL 看中国彩电份额 & 盈利提升之路 请条必阅读报告未真的重委声明 2024年08月06日 证券研究报告 | 报告委总 TCL 屯子子辛初发布殷份类动计划，且前期拔露 2024H1 业绩预告，引发市场关注。当前 TCL 屯子杉屯业务漳内外份领持续提升，经营趋势向好，且公司聚焦中高端突破，产品结构不断优 化，价格指数不断提升，后续公司移电均价相对海外起头仍有提升空间。别除非经常损益， TCL 屯子指非冷利率装复至 1%左右，我们认为公司有望凭借产品升级、漳外扩张、效率提升 进一步改善乡屯垦利能力，且公司具备校好产业链选源，产业协同有望为稳健经营保驾护航。 | 分析师及联系人 菜云綠 客永永 予第 SAC: S0590523100007 SAC: S0590523110003 SAC: S0590523120001 请条必阅读报告未真的重要声明 1 / 14 行业研究 | 行业专题研究 2024年08月06日 家 用 电 器 从 TCL 看中国彩电份额 & 盈利提升之路 投资建设: 上次建议： 祭于大市（编书） 经于大市 相对大盘大势 家 ...

以旧换新补贴落地，重视内销反转预期 ——家电行业7月月报及8月投资策略 分析师：管泉森 | 孙珊 | 贺本东 | 崔甜甜 | 莫云皓 联系人：蔡奕娴 行业评级：强于大市（维持） 证券研究报告 2024年8月5日 目 录 第一部分 8月投资观点 7月市场回顾 第二部分 第三部分 重点数据跟踪 第四部分 投资建议&核心报告 CURITIES 1 1、8月拔资观点 内销预期或迎改善，优质龙头值得重视 ➢ 投资观点 ➢ 事件提示 • 白电：此次以旧换新力度比肩家电下乡，后续政策逐步落地有望支撑下半年内 需；新兴市场/OBM贡献外销增量，欧美需求触底改善，空调出口环比提速；结 构升级支撑下，行业均价预计维持稳健。综合考虑到内销韧性为底弹性可期， 龙头出口订单保持较快增长，龙头业绩预期稳健，报表质量优异，后续经营有 支撑。推荐美的集团、海尔智家、格力电器、海信家电等。 • 黑电：彩电内外销景气仍有分化，国内需求相对平淡，新兴市场支撑全球出货 表现，叠加年内欧洲杯、奥运会的带动，2024年全球市场规模有望稳中有增。 同时，国内彩电龙头全球份额提升逻辑持续兑现；盈利端面板波动影响趋弱， 产品升级助益盈利改善，推荐龙头海信视像 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|轻工制造（2136） 3C 认证后的智能坐便器格局推演 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月05日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 智能坐便器行业标准正不断趋严：1）新国标《GB/T 34549-2024》将于 2024 年 11 月 1 日落 地；2）智能坐便器强制纳入 3C 认证，将于 2025 年 7 月 1 日落地。 参考两轮车在新国标落地后的格局变迁，行业规范程度提升利好龙头企业，行业出清或加快， 市场集中度有望提高。与两轮车不同点：智能坐便器渗透率仍处低位，未来内销增速或快于电 动两轮车，价格战的暂缓可能只是"中场休息"而非"尘埃落定"。 |分析师及联系人 管泉森 戚志圣 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590523120002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 13 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月05日 轻工制造 3C 认证后的智能坐便器格局推演 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 轻工制造 沪深300 -40% -23% -7% 10% ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|小鹏汽车-W（09868） 小鹏汽车 7 月销量点评：销量稳步提 升，MONA 有望注入新动力 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月05日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 8 月 1 日，小鹏汽车公布 2024 年 7 月交付数据。2024 年 7 月，小鹏汽车共交付新车 11,145 台，同比增长 1%，环比增长 4%。8 月小鹏 MONA M03 正式发布，新车有望全面带动销 量升级。XNGP 城区智驾月度活跃用户渗透率达 84%，活跃度保持基本稳定。受益于储备算力、 高研发投入和深耕智能驾驶 10 年，小鹏智能驾驶功能实现全面升级。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月05日 小鹏汽车-W(09868) 小鹏汽车 7 月销量点评：销量稳步提升，MONA 有望注入新动力 | --- | --- | |------------|-------------| | 行 业： | 汽车/乘用车 | | 投 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|商用车（212806） 重卡 7 月销量点评：淡季库存持续消 化，"金九银十"值得期待 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月05日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 根据第一商用车网公布数据，2024 年 7 月重卡行业销量约 5.9 万，同比下滑 4%，环比下降 17%。1-7 月累计销售重卡约 56.3 万辆，同比增长 2%，整体销量持续复苏。行业进入传统销 量淡季，整体持续去库，5、6 月行业库存分别减少 0.37 万辆和增加 0.07 万辆，终端持续去 库为"金九银十"销量旺季积蓄资金和库存空间，有望释放最大弹性。 |分析师及联系人 高登 陈斯竹 SAC：S0590523110004 SAC：S0590523100009 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月05日 商用车 重卡 7 月销量点评：淡季库存持续消化，"金 九银十"值得期待 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 商用车 沪深300 -30% -13% 3% 20% 2023 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gan Yuan Food (002991) [4] Core Views - Gan Yuan Food achieved revenue of 1.042 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 26.14% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 167 million yuan, up 39.26% YoY [2] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 456 million yuan, up 4.90% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, up 16.92% YoY [2] - The company's product portfolio is well-rounded, with traditional products showing steady growth and new products like mixed nuts and colorful beans performing exceptionally well [6] - Channel optimization is accelerating, with a focus on expanding into high-end membership stores and snack retail chains, while also improving the efficiency of existing distributors [6] - Despite short-term pressure on product structure, the company is committed to cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a net profit margin increase of 1.68 percentage points YoY to 16.49% in Q2 2024 [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.441 billion yuan, 3.031 billion yuan, and 3.609 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 32.13%, 24.17%, and 19.05% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 403 million yuan, 502 million yuan, and 615 million yuan, with YoY growth rates of 22.33%, 24.69%, and 22.63% respectively [6] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 4.32 yuan, 5.38 yuan, and 6.60 yuan per share [6] Product and Channel Strategy - The company has a diversified product portfolio, with mixed nuts and beans, green peas, melon seeds, broad beans, and other series contributing significantly to revenue [6] - Traditional products like green peas, melon seeds, and broad beans continue to grow steadily, while new products like mixed nuts and colorful beans are showing strong growth [6] - The company is actively expanding its sales channels, including high-end membership stores and snack retail chains, while also optimizing its distribution network [6] - E-commerce revenue grew by 9.14% YoY in H1 2024, while distributor revenue grew by 27.72% YoY [6] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is 13.4x for 2024E, 10.7x for 2025E, and 8.7x for 2026E [7] - The P/B ratio is 2.9x for 2024E, 2.6x for 2025E, and 2.4x for 2026E [7] - EV/EBITDA is 8.0x for 2024E, 6.3x for 2025E, and 5.1x for 2026E [7]

Group 1: Export Trends - China's export growth in the second half of 2024 may be supported by interest rate differentials and leading export indicators[2] - The main driver of China's current export growth is emerging markets, while recovery in demand from Europe and the US is relatively slow, potentially leading to a lack of elasticity in future export growth[2] - The current export support mainly comes from consumer electronics components, necessitating ongoing attention to the demand situation in the electronics supply chain[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Global manufacturing is gradually recovering from a rate hike cycle to a rate cut cycle, which is expected to support domestic exports in the second half of the year[4] - Recent data from South Korea and Taiwan indicates a trend of improvement in new orders, suggesting continued upward momentum in manufacturing demand[4] - The overall export growth rate is under pressure, but structural aspects show promise, particularly in capital goods and transportation chains[4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include significant changes in global geopolitical situations, unexpected changes in Federal Reserve interest rates, and domestic economic recovery not meeting expectations[4] - The lack of demand sources globally, particularly from developed countries, raises concerns about the sustainability of export growth[15] - The export growth of equipment may decline from high levels due to the absence of terminal demand, particularly in emerging markets[24]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|商用车（212806） 以旧换新撬动内需，商用车龙头充分受 益 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月04日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 两部委发布《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》（以下简称《措 施》），对比 4 月《汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》，增加对于国三老旧营运货车和新能源公交报 废补贴细则，资金来源为 1500 亿元左右超长期特别国债，央地资金共担比例按照 9:1 原则实 行，中央至少分担 85%，减轻地方财政压力，有望显著拉动整车内需。内需向上，叠加出口高 增长，龙头率先受益，盈利有望超预期，配置价值进一步提升。 |分析师及联系人 高登 陈斯竹 SAC：S0590523110004 SAC：S0590523100009 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 15 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月04日 商用车 以旧换新撬动内需，商用车龙头充分受益 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 商用车 沪深300 -30% -13% 3% 20% 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the defense and military industry [1]. Core Insights - The demand for efficient cost-performance guided bombs is surging, aligning with the current trends of low-cost and intelligent warfare [5][6]. - The strategic deterrent effect of guided bombs is significant, with a kill radius reaching nearly 1,000 meters, indicating a substantial increase in wartime demand and production efficiency [7][22]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overview of Guided Bombs - Guided bombs are preferred for their high destruction capability, long range, high precision, and low cost, making them one of the most widely used conventional weapons in modern high-tech local wars [6]. - The types of guided bombs include various categories such as explosive bombs, fragmentation bombs, incendiary bombs, armor-piercing bombs, cluster bombs, and guided bombs [6]. Section 2: Demand and Production Trends - The production rate of various munitions in Russia has increased significantly, with some factories reporting a fivefold increase in overall production rates compared to 2023 [7]. - The FAB-3000 bomb, with a total mass of 3,067 kg and an explosive charge of 1,387 kg, is designed to target complex and protected important objectives, showcasing the growing demand for high-capacity guided bombs [7]. Section 3: Development History of Guided Bombs - The development of guided bombs has progressed through three main stages: 1. Basic unguided systems with low accuracy [9]. 2. Conventional bombs with passive guidance systems [9]. 3. Advanced smart bombs with composite guidance systems [9]. Section 4: Guidance Systems and Precision - The glide distance and release altitude significantly affect the precision of guided bombs, with higher altitudes generally yielding better accuracy [12]. - JDAM bombs demonstrate a clear advantage in precision compared to conventional bombs, with a much lower miss distance [12]. Section 5: Future Directions - The future of guided bombs is focused on standardization, serialization, and modularization, with the U.S. military developing a comprehensive system of approximately 135 types of guided bombs [13]. - The integration of drones for deploying guided bombs is increasingly common, reflecting a shift in operational tactics [13]. Section 6: Cost and Performance Analysis - The cost of guided bomb kits ranges from approximately 20,000 to 30,000 RMB, depending on performance [16]. - The cost-effectiveness of guided bombs is significantly higher than that of conventional bombs, with laser-guided bombs demonstrating a much lower expenditure for similar operational effectiveness [17]. Section 7: Domestic Developments - China has a rich experience in developing various types of guided bombs, with several models showcased at international airshows [20]. - The demand for energetic materials, particularly black powder, is expected to rise due to the increasing production of guided bombs [34].