电力设备 拨云见日,蓄势前行 ——风光锂 2024 年度中期投资策略 ➢ 回顾与展望:行业复苏或将出现结构性机会 分板块来看,风光锂板块表现分化较为显著;光伏板块或已筑底;风电板 块边际转好;锂电板块或加速出清。我们认为随着各细分环节供需端、技 术变革端等方向逐步出现变化,2024 年下半年行业复苏中可能出现结构性 机会。 ➢ 光伏:产业处于内部深度调整期,盈利拐点或将至 2023 年底至今受供需关系调整、行业竞争模式转变影响,晶硅企业盈利下 行,2023Q4、2024Q1 板块归母净利润分别为-6.6/44.9 亿元,同比分别由 正转负/-86.1%。随着硅料价格企稳,政策端、监管侧对消纳能力、产能有 序建设等方面发力,引导行业步入高质量发展阶段,下半年行业需求有望 加速释放,拉动整体盈利规模扩大。 ➢ 风电:海风催化积蓄,景气度有望持续提升 在江苏、广东重点海上风电项目审批进度顺利推进,海风招标持续回暖的 背景下,2024-2025 年国内海风装机需求有望增强,截止 2024 年 5 月,国 内海风招标已超 5GW,行业景气度有望持续提升。出海方面,根据 GWEC 预 测,未来五年海外风电新增装机 CAG ...

或投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 未经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利好的 大家晚上好我是国联雇收的李清禾 那首先呢先跟这个各位线上的新老朋友们问个好啊因为我们团队呢也是上个月啊正式入职这个国研政经研究所那熟悉我们团队的一些朋友们应该知道就是之前战事三十分栏目呢啊这个我们主要是聚焦当周的一个战事的热点也是由我和我们团队的小伙伴们一起共同讨论来尽量用一个相对精练的语言尽量用三十分钟来讲述我们的一个观点 那这个栏目应该说从这周开始又重新回归了那时间也是从之前周日改到了现在每周三晚上的八点那也是欢迎大家能够订阅和收听那首先今天主要讨论几个话题第一个也是这两天应该说是这个市场非常热的就关于央行介入国债的这样一个操作怎么理解 那这个事实上其实我们昨天其实也出了这样的一个其实定出了这样一个点评我们认为就是 ...

家用电器 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 如何看待石头科技分子筛洗烘一体机的前景? ➢ 分子筛洗烘一体机方案:高性价比&低温烘干 石头科技于近期成立洗衣机事业部,将集中资源打造第二增长曲线,公司 主推的分子筛洗烘一体机能否贡献显著增量?市场十分关注。当前常见的 冷凝式洗烘一体机与热泵式洗烘一体机各有优化空间,前者本质是"洗衣 机+吹风机",价格便宜但高温易损伤衣物,后者本质是"洗衣机+空调", 换热效率优秀但价格偏高,独立式干衣机占地多且不自动。2023 年石头引 入分子筛方案,使循环气不直接接触热风,具备高性价比低温烘干能力, 并凭借毛絮滤网自清洁、RR 洗烘算法等创新点改善产品体验,值得关注。 ➢ 分子筛洗烘一体机空间:市场空间十分可观 根据奥维数据,2023 年洗衣机内销量中约 13%为洗烘一体机,同比有所下 滑,主要由于消费总体有所承压,且冷凝式产品的体验仍可优化,干衣功 能在洗护市场的渗透率仍有望进一步提升。分线上线下看,预计洗烘一体 机线上、线下销量对半,合计总量约 560 万台左右,其中线上洗烘一体机 均价约 3000 元、主要对应冷凝式,线下均价约 6500 元、主要对应热泵式, 静 ...

家用电器 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 如何看待石头科技分子筛洗烘一体机的前景? ➢ 分子筛洗烘一体机方案:高性价比&低温烘干 石头科技于近期成立洗衣机事业部,将集中资源打造第二增长曲线,公司 主推的分子筛洗烘一体机能否贡献显著增量?市场十分关注。当前常见的 冷凝式洗烘一体机与热泵式洗烘一体机各有优化空间,前者本质是"洗衣 机+吹风机",价格便宜但高温易损伤衣物,后者本质是"洗衣机+空调", 换热效率优秀但价格偏高,独立式干衣机占地多且不自动。2023 年石头引 入分子筛方案,使循环气不直接接触热风,具备高性价比低温烘干能力, 并凭借毛絮滤网自清洁、RR 洗烘算法等创新点改善产品体验,值得关注。 ➢ 分子筛洗烘一体机空间:市场空间十分可观 根据奥维数据,2023 年洗衣机内销量中约 13%为洗烘一体机,同比有所下 滑,主要由于消费总体有所承压,且冷凝式产品的体验仍可优化,干衣功 能在洗护市场的渗透率仍有望进一步提升。分线上线下看,预计洗烘一体 机线上、线下销量对半,合计总量约 560 万台左右,其中线上洗烘一体机 均价约 3000 元、主要对应冷凝式,线下均价约 6500 元、主要对应热泵式, 静 ...

➢ 核心摘要 1） 上半年红利资产持续上行，表明市场对经济的预期仍然相对悲观。内外 需背离，第二产业靠外需拉动，但第三产业持续较弱，明显拖累经济， 进而导致盈利预期持续回调。 2） 下半年景气回升或有波折。PMI 新订单下行，海外周期同样有回落风险， 外需补库的弹性需要慎重考虑；如果景气分化低，市场风险偏好低，市 场或集中定价低波动方向。 3） 下半年重视年内风格的再平衡。红利持续上涨后，部分"高股息"的股 息吸引力减弱，处于低位的核心资产同样有配置价值。 | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 图表 31 ： | 市场宽基指数 ERP 水平 ....................................... 14 | | 图表 32 | ： 主要一级行业 ...

图表14：美国劳动力(亿人) 图表15：美国劳动参与率(%) 1.4 1.45 1.5 1.55 1.6 1.65 1.7 2001-012002-082004-032005-102007-052008-122010-072012-022013-092015-042016-112018-062020-012021-082023-03 劳动力 线性 (劳动力) 资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 1948-01 1978-01 2008-01 此外，疫情中劳动参与率一度显著下降，但是疫情之后，劳动参与率大幅回升， 也形成了劳动力市场的正向供给冲击，有利于通胀回落。2024 年 5 月劳动力参与率 为 62.5%，较上月下降；距离疫情前的高点 63.3%，还有 0.8pct 的差距。我们认为劳 动参与率进一步回升的空间有限，这也意味着劳动参与率对未来美国通胀的回落贡 献可能有限。 从劳动参与率年龄结构的分解来看，5 月份 2 个年龄组的劳动参与率较上月上 升，2 个年龄组的劳动参与率较上月下降。16-19 岁人群的劳动参与率 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the company based on its continuous product improvement and sales momentum [5][7]. Core Insights - In June 2024, the company delivered 47,774 vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.7%. The total deliveries for Q2 2024 reached 108,581 units, up 25.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The launch of the L6 model has significantly boosted sales, with over 20,000 units delivered in June alone. The company is expected to achieve revenues exceeding 32 billion yuan in H2 2024, showing strong growth both sequentially and year-on-year [2][5]. - The company is enhancing its smart driving capabilities, with a nationwide rollout of its NOA feature planned for early July 2024 [3]. - The company's service and charging infrastructure is expanding, with 497 retail centers and 614 charging stations established across 220 cities as of May 31, 2024 [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 147.3 billion yuan, 205.4 billion yuan, and 280 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 8.53 billion yuan, 14.24 billion yuan, and 23.72 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -27.1%, 67.0%, and 66.6% respectively [5][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 4.02 yuan, 6.71 yuan, and 11.18 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.6% [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report suggests continuous attention to the company's performance due to its accelerating transformation and growth potential [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is experiencing a significant acceleration in its transition to new energy vehicles, with a notable increase in sales and an upward revision of its annual sales target from 1.9 million to 2 million vehicles, reflecting strong growth confidence [2][5]. - In June 2024, the company achieved a total vehicle sales volume of 166,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [1]. - The company’s new energy vehicle sales reached 66,000 units in June 2024, marking an 88.3% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 39.7%, up 13.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The launch of the Lynk & Co Z10, the brand's first pure electric vehicle, is expected to further accelerate the company's new energy transition [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June 2024, the company's sales by brand included 122,000 units for the Geely brand (up 13.9% year-on-year), 16,000 units for the Galaxy series (up 65.2% year-on-year), 20,000 units for the Zeekr brand (up 89.3% year-on-year), and 24,000 units for the Lynk brand (up 49.2% year-on-year) [2]. - For the first half of 2024, total sales reached 956,000 units, a 41.0% increase year-on-year [1]. Export and Market Expansion - In June 2024, the company exported 35,000 vehicles, a 61.0% increase year-on-year, although it saw a slight decrease of 4.2% compared to the previous month [3]. - The Zeekr brand has entered the Southeast Asian market, launching right-hand drive versions of its models in Indonesia and Malaysia, which is expected to enhance sales growth [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 230.3 billion, 273.4 billion, and 319.0 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.1%, 18.7%, and 16.7% respectively [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 7.67 billion, 11.62 billion, and 14.09 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 48.5%, 51.5%, and 21.2% respectively [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Auto Inc. (02015) is to "continue to pay attention" due to the ongoing improvement in product strength and sales momentum [5][7]. Core Insights - In June 2024, Li Auto delivered 47,774 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.7%. For Q2 2024, total deliveries reached 108,581 units, up 25.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The launch of the L6 model has significantly boosted sales momentum, with over 20,000 units delivered in June 2024 alone. The company has also introduced a limited-time 0 down payment offer to lower purchase costs and expand its customer base [2][4]. - Li Auto is enhancing its smart driving capabilities, with a summer release event scheduled for July 2024 to upgrade its NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) feature for all AD Max users [3]. - The company's service and charging ecosystem is expanding, with 497 retail centers and 614 supercharging stations established across 148 cities as of May 31, 2024 [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Li Auto from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280.0 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 8.53 billion, 14.24 billion, and 23.72 billion CNY, with growth rates of -27.1%, 67.0%, and 66.6% respectively [5][6][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.02, 6.71, and 11.18 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.6% [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Insights - In June 2024, the company achieved a record high in sales, with 342,000 new energy vehicles sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.0% and a month-on-month increase of 3.0% [2][3]. - The company’s sales for the first half of 2024 totaled 1.613 million new energy vehicles, up 28.5% year-on-year [2]. - The high-end brand sales accounted for 5.2% of total sales in H1 2024, reflecting an increase in the company's focus on high-end models [3]. - The company’s export of new energy passenger vehicles reached 27,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 156.2%, although it saw a month-on-month decline of 28.0% [4]. - The introduction of the city NOA feature is expected to enhance the driving experience for consumers [5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 813.06 billion, 952.98 billion, and 1,162.64 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.99%, 17.21%, and 22.00% respectively [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 38.944 billion, 50.594 billion, and 63.334 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 29.64%, 29.91%, and 25.18% respectively [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 13.39, 17.39, and 21.77 yuan per share for 2024-2026, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.23% [6][7].