行 2024年05月12日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 农林牧渔 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 2023 年报&2024 一季报总结： 相对大盘走势 专 2023 年养殖行业砥砺前行，静待行情回暖 农林牧渔 沪深300 题 10% 研 行业整体：23年农林牧渔行业低迷，24年养殖周期回暖渐近 究 -3% 2023年的农林牧渔行业仍然处于周期底部蛰伏期。养殖业的低迷亦传导至 上游饲料、动保等板块，中小企业纷纷面临出清压力，行业整合并购步伐 -17% 加快。进入2024Q1，虽然市场仍未明显摆脱寒冬，但我们已然观察到不少 -30% 积极的信号，猪价淡季不淡、大宗农产品价格的持续下行、宠物食品海外 2023/5 2023/9 2024/1 2024/5 需求的稳健增长等，或许周期回暖的脚步也将渐行渐致，农林牧渔板块投 资的春天也将到来。 作者 分析师：王明琦 ➢ 生猪养殖： 23年行业亏损明显，静待24年周期反转 执业证书编号：S0590524040003 我们选取生猪养殖行业内15家上市公司进行分析,23年板块合计出栏生猪 邮箱：wmq@glsc.com.cn 14598.70 万头，同比增长 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 Goldman Equity Sachs Research 21 May 2024 |3:26PM HKT China Healthcare: Medical Devices: VBP update: National joints national Joint VBP bidding Was held on May 21st (see our previous note), with most players bidding slightly below the renewal ceiling price for revival by a range of 0-3%, and bidding prices across different players are now converging. Domestic players e.g. AK Medical, saw increases in bidding price of 15%/12% for Hip Ceramics-on-Ceramics and Ceramics-on-Poly and 1 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to Guolian Securities and its research department Core Points and Arguments - The conference call is exclusively for clients on the whitelist of Guolian Securities Research Institute [1] - The content of the meeting does not constitute investment advice under any circumstances [1] - Participants are advised to make their own investment decisions and bear their own investment risks [1] - Guolian Securities disclaims any responsibility for losses incurred by anyone using the content of the meeting [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call emphasizes the importance of independent decision-making by participants [1] - The disclaimer highlights the regulatory framework surrounding investment advice and the responsibilities of both the firm and the participants [1]

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to Guolian Securities and its research services for institutional clients. Core Points and Arguments - The call is exclusively for clients on the whitelist of Guolian Securities Research Institute [1] - It emphasizes that the content of the meeting does not constitute investment advice [1] - Participants are advised to make their own investment decisions and bear the associated risks [1] - Guolian Securities disclaims any liability for losses incurred by participants due to the use of the meeting content [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call highlights the importance of investor suitability management in the securities and futures market [1]

各位投资者大家晚上好欢迎大家参加国联农业专栏第六期如何看待近期猪价走势及后续展望那么我是国联农业分析师马鹏近期我们可以看到整个的这种生猪养殖板块股价表现还是非常强势的 那么从现货端来看呢近期的这种猪价走势相对也比较景气这种猪价的上涨的原因究竟为何后续来看猪价是会如何演绎的那么今天很高兴我们请到了农业农村部生猪产业监测预警专家及中国畜牧业协会猪业分会种猪生产监测负责人石老师来跟大家做深层次的沟通那么首先呢我们就先把时间交还给石老师请他来讲一讲自己的一个观点之后呢我们再进入问答环节 前面也讲过 基本上现在是验证了前面的这个看法我记得是在春节之前还是春节后一点点都是大概都讲过的就是说产能区的幅度居中就是说没有达到一个就是2016年的那个高度也没有达到一个2022年的那个幅度 但是来去的也差不多了基本上能够支撑一轮这个小的周期也就是一个高度不够很高的这样一个周期但是它这个持续营业的时间可能会比这个二二年要高一点可能也能够达到个从目前来看我觉得至少会超过六个月因为这个从目前来这种产能趋势看它是增长的不是很快的 而且在年前大概也说过我说这个很有可能在三月份左右的时候可能就会停止计划而且三月份的这个紫苏的价格弄不好会达到一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the OLED industry [7]. Core Insights - The OLED panel supply and demand are reversing, indicating a potential profitability turning point for the industry. The decline in OLED panel prices has accelerated the adoption of AMOLED by smartphone manufacturers in 2023, leading to a recovery in panel prices by the end of 2023 and sustained demand [2][10]. Summary by Sections AMOLED Advantages - AMOLED technology is increasingly prominent in the small and medium-sized display sector, showcasing advantages over TFT-LCD in optical performance, electronic performance, integration, and aesthetics. The technology is widely used in smartphones and wearables, with a trend towards flexible displays replacing rigid ones and accelerated LTPO penetration [3][20]. Smartphone Demand - The global smartphone market is expected to recover, with an estimated shipment of 1.2 billion units in 2024, driven by replacement cycles and demand for foldable and AI smartphones. The penetration rate of OLED smartphones is projected to rise from 51% in 2023 to 55% in 2024, reaching 60% by 2028, with a CAGR of 4.74% from 2023 to 2028 [4][46]. Tablet/Notebook Demand - Major brands, including Apple, are entering the OLED market, which is expected to accelerate the penetration of OLED panels in medium-sized displays. Apple's market share in tablets and computers reached 40% and 9% respectively in 2023, indicating significant potential for OLED adoption [5][11]. Supply Dynamics - The AMOLED supply market is primarily dominated by South Korea and mainland China, with South Korea accounting for 70.7% of global smartphone AMOLED panel shipments in 2023. There is a structural supply tightness in LTPO technology, which is expected to persist until 2025 due to slow capacity release [6][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic flexible OLED manufacturers that are likely to benefit from the supply-demand reversal, including BOE Technology Group, TCL Technology, Visionox, and Honghuayuan [7][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is to "continue to pay attention" [5]. Core Views - The company reported a first-quarter delivery volume of 80,400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 52.9%, with total revenue of 25.6 billion yuan, up 36.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 590 million yuan, down 36.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - Short-term sales pressure is significant, but revenue is expected to continue to rise with the launch of the Li L6 model, which has already seen record order volumes during the May Day holiday [2]. - The company is expanding its ecosystem with the addition of 357 supercharging stations and aims to have over 2,000 supercharging stations and more than 10,000 charging piles by the end of 2024 [4]. Financial Performance - The first-quarter gross margin was 20.6%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points but a decrease of 2.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to price adjustments and scale reductions [3]. - Research and development expenses were 3.049 billion yuan, and selling, general, and administrative expenses were 2.978 billion yuan, with both expense ratios increasing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 155.5 billion yuan, 231.7 billion yuan, and 314.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%, 49.1%, and 35.6% respectively [5][6]. Market Position and Outlook - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 160.6 billion HKD, with a current share price of 80.65 HKD [7]. - The company is expected to achieve quarterly delivery volumes of 105,000 to 110,000 vehicles in the second quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.3% to 27.1% [2]. - The company is enhancing its product matrix and energy types, with a focus on improving its intelligent features, which is anticipated to drive sales growth [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near future [7]. Core Views - The company has experienced a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, with a total of 80,400 units delivered in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.9%. Total revenue for the same period reached 256 billion yuan, up 36.4% year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 36.7% to 5.9 billion yuan [1][2]. - Despite short-term sales pressures, the company is expected to maintain revenue growth, particularly with the upcoming launch of the Li L6 model, which has already seen high order volumes during the May Day holiday [2]. - The company is expanding its supercharging network, with 357 new supercharging stations and 1,544 charging piles established in Q1 2024, aiming for over 2,000 supercharging stations and more than 10,000 charging piles by the end of 2024 [4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the gross margin was reported at 20.6%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 2.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to price adjustments and scale reductions [3]. - The company’s R&D and SG&A expenses were 30.49 billion yuan and 29.78 billion yuan respectively, with their expense ratios increasing year-on-year [3]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1,555 billion yuan, 2,317 billion yuan, and 3,142 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%, 49.1%, and 35.6% [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q2 2024 deliveries to reach between 105,000 and 110,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.3% to 27.1%. Revenue for the same period is expected to be between 299 billion yuan and 314 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 4.2% to 9.4% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 5.09 yuan, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.7% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 17.78 CNY, maintaining the rating [6][5]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Tongtuo Technology for 700 million CNY, which is expected to enhance category and channel synergies [3][4]. - Post-acquisition, Tongtuo Technology will become a wholly-owned subsidiary, contributing to the company's consolidated financial statements [3]. - The acquisition is anticipated to significantly expand the company's SKU scale, enhancing bargaining power with upstream suppliers and potentially lowering procurement costs [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 85.27 billion CNY, 105.31 billion CNY, and 125.91 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 30.82%, 23.50%, and 19.56% [5][12]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.50 billion CNY, 5.78 billion CNY, and 6.72 billion CNY, with growth rates of 35.47%, 28.45%, and 16.30% respectively [5][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.11 CNY, 1.43 CNY, and 1.66 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a 3-year CAGR of 26% [5][12]. Business Model and Strategy - Tongtuo Technology primarily operates in B2C cross-border e-commerce, focusing on home and electronic products, with 78.78% and 17.09% of revenue from these categories in 2023 [4]. - The company utilizes a "pan-channel" and "pan-category" sales model, leveraging third-party platforms and its own website to reach overseas consumers [4]. - The acquisition is expected to create synergies by integrating existing supply chain channels, business resources, and technological advantages, thereby enhancing the overall competitiveness of the cross-border e-commerce business [5].

Group 1: Market Impact of Real Estate Policies - Current housing prices in lower-tier cities have dropped to levels comparable to the average post-global crisis, indicating a potential stabilization opportunity with new policies[1] - Historical data shows that strong real estate policies have led to market stabilization, with significant short-term increases in major indices and financial trends[2] - The macroeconomic recovery suggests a shift towards pro-cyclical factors, benefiting leading companies in core sectors, particularly in finance and consumer goods[3] Group 2: Rental and Price Dynamics - The rental-to-sale ratio in lower-tier cities is now reasonable, and new policies are expected to reverse the negative price cycle[4] - The current downward trend in housing prices has created a negative feedback loop, but policy interventions could help stabilize prices[5] - The average price adjustments in lower-tier cities are nearing the average levels seen during overseas real estate crises, indicating potential for recovery[6] Group 3: Risks and Market Expectations - There are risks associated with global geopolitical changes that could alter market risk preferences significantly[7] - The potential for unexpected changes in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates could impact market dynamics[8] - Domestic economic recovery may not meet expectations, posing additional risks to market stability[9]