Group 1: Investment Strategies - Korea's NPS is selling $50 billion in USD to maintain the KRW exchange rate and is increasing investments in infrastructure and global equities, raising the allocation from 33% to 35.9%[1] - Norway's GPFG is removing emerging market small-cap stocks from its benchmark index, which represents 22% of the number of companies but less than 1% of market capitalization, simplifying management and reducing costs[2] - GPFG has formed a joint venture with Goodman to acquire 45% of a logistics portfolio in the US for $1.07 billion, valuing the portfolio at $3.265 billion[3] Group 2: Market Insights - Canada’s CPPIB sold a 49% stake in four joint venture retail projects in China for a net gain of CAD 235 million[4] - CPPIB is optimistic about the Brazilian residential market, forming a joint venture with Cyrela to develop residential apartments in São Paulo with a potential sales value exceeding BRL 6 billion (CAD 1.44 billion)[5] - OTPP's global investor sentiment report shows that 70% of investors are optimistic about the investment environment in 2025, with concerns primarily around market volatility (54%), macro factors (49%), and geopolitical instability (44%)[6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - 78% of global investors view technological changes, such as AI, as opportunities, with 94% wanting to incorporate AI into their business[7] - 73% of investors are optimistic about the private market environment, particularly in India, Brazil, and Singapore[8] - 66% of investors see geopolitical changes as potential opportunities, with many planning to increase investments in their home regions[9]

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - Social financing stock growth rate increased to 8.0% in December 2024, up from 7.8% previously, with new social financing reaching 2.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 924.9 billion yuan[1] - Government bonds remained a stable component of social financing, with net financing of 1.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 828.8 billion yuan[1] - Corporate bonds were a key support for social financing in December, with a year-on-year increase of 258.8 billion yuan, driven by low base effects and lower financing costs[1] - New credit in December was 990 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion yuan, influenced by debt resolution policies[2] Group 2: Monetary Indicators - M2 growth rate slightly increased to 7.3% in December 2024, up from 7.1% previously, while M1 growth rate improved to -1.4% from -3.7%, narrowing the M1-M2 spread[3] - Deposit growth rate declined to 6.3% in December from 6.9%, while M2 growth increased, reflecting the impact of debt resolution on fiscal deposits[3] - M0 (cash in circulation) saw significant year-on-year growth due to seasonal cash demand ahead of the Spring Festival[3] Group 3: Real Estate and Credit Expansion - Residential credit continued to expand, with a 14.4% year-on-year increase in commercial housing transaction area in 30 major cities, up from 11.6% in November[2] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline, while second-tier cities experienced growth, and third-tier cities saw a narrowing decline[2] - Early January data showed a decline in commercial housing transactions in first- and second-tier cities, raising concerns about the sustainability of residential credit expansion[2] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flows - The "Shanghai Gold Premium" turned positive, reflecting market expectations for the exchange rate around 7.38, indicating a slight increase in domestic capital seeking overseas diversification[4] - The "Shanghai Gold Premium" and "Swap Premium" show convergence, suggesting that holding Shanghai gold is a good hedging strategy in a high swap premium environment[4] Group 5: Risks - The repair process of private sector balance sheets may fall short of expectations[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia have intensified market supply concerns, particularly affecting major energy companies like Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, which exported 970,000 barrels per day of oil in the first ten months of 2024 [1] - The sanctions list includes over 150 entities and individuals, along with 183 vessels, significantly tightening the trading environment for U.S. entities [1] - The report anticipates that the impact of these sanctions on supply will be primarily short-term, with potential reductions in Russian oil exports ranging from 500,000 to 1,000,000 barrels per day [2] - Market sentiment is expected to peak following potential sanctions on Iran, with Brent crude positions shifting from net short to net long since September [3] - The report highlights that while short-term supply will be affected, the long-term effects of sanctions may diminish over time as Russia and Iran could find ways to circumvent restrictions [2][3] Summary by Sections - **Sanctions Impact**: The U.S. sanctions are expected to create a supply crunch, with Russian oil exports potentially decreasing significantly [1][2] - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that the market is currently experiencing low overall global oil inventories, which could lead to price increases in the short term [3] - **Future Outlook**: The report suggests that while the immediate effects of sanctions will be felt, the long-term outlook may see a stabilization of prices as geopolitical pressures evolve [2][3]

Consumption Sector - Japan's consumption is evolving, focusing on companies with strong management and innovation capabilities that can withstand economic cycles[1] - Key investment trends include high cost-performance, health-oriented, and convenience-driven products[1] - The Japanese beer industry shows potential for long-term structural upgrades and price increases, with leading companies benefiting from a favorable competitive landscape[2] Financial Sector - Japan's public investment trust industry ranks 8th globally, accounting for 4.3% of household assets, indicating underdevelopment compared to Western markets[6] - The insurance asset management sector in Japan leads Asia, focusing on managing insurance group funds and third-party wealth management[7] Real Estate and Construction - Japan is a pioneer in urban renewal, with successful projects like Roppongi serving as models for similar initiatives in other countries[8] - The construction sector in Japan has experienced significant growth due to urbanization and policy support, suggesting potential for similar developments in other regions[9] Technology Sector - Japan is at the forefront of hydrogen energy applications, providing a model for domestic industry development in this area[10]

Market Performance Before Spring Festival - Since 2004, the average return of the Shanghai Composite Index in the five trading days before the Spring Festival is 1.8%, with an 81% probability of increase[1] - The years with declines before the Spring Festival were 2018, 2020, and 2022, attributed to external events like market turmoil and the Russia-Ukraine conflict[1] Index Performance - Among major indices, the ChiNext Index, STAR 50, and Double Innovation 50 had the best average returns of 3.54%, 2.93%, and 3.40% respectively in the last four Spring Festivals since 2021[1] - The Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 indices achieved slightly lower returns, all above 2%[1] - The Guozheng 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, had a negative average return[1] Sector Performance - The top five sectors with the highest probability of performance before the Spring Festival are Defense, Beauty Care, Food & Beverage, Pharmaceutical & Biological, and Electric Equipment, with probabilities of 54%, 41%, 36%, 33%, and 32% respectively[1] - Electric Equipment, Electronics, Pharmaceutical & Biological, Beauty Care, and Nonferrous Metals had the highest average returns of 2.5%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.3%, and 1.9% respectively[1] Investment Style Insights - Consumer and growth style indices have outperformed others, with the growth style index ranking first among five styles six times since 2013[2] - Large and mid-cap styles are stronger, while small and micro-cap styles are weaker; high valuation styles outperform low valuation styles[2] - Dividend indices show average returns close to 0, indicating a lack of calendar effect[2]

Export Performance - December exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year, up from 6.7% in the previous month, with the month-on-month momentum at its highest level in nearly five years, exceeding market expectations[1] - Exports to the United States and ASEAN countries showed resilience, while exports to other regions were the main drag on overall export growth[1] - Agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw significant increases in export growth, while high-tech product exports declined[1] Export Dynamics - The strong month-on-month momentum in December was primarily driven by increased export efforts, with price-for-volume strategies being a secondary factor[2] - Exports to the U.S. outperformed seasonal trends, with a month-on-month growth rate exceeding seasonal patterns by 3.5 percentage points in December, following a 2.7 percentage point outperformance in November[2] - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" is expected to continue in the short term, with potential for further expansion across more industries[2] Economic Impact - Net exports are projected to contribute significantly to GDP growth, with an expected increase of 1.4 percentage points in 2024[3] - In 2025, the resilience of exports priced in RMB is anticipated, supported by recent RMB depreciation and a potential rebound in export prices following an increase in China's PPI[3] Risks - There are increasing risks from global economic fluctuations and external uncertainties[4]

Central Bank's Exchange Rate Management Measures - The central bank's exchange rate management measures are divided into three stages based on cost and effectiveness: signaling through the counter-cyclical factor, offshore market liquidity regulation, and macro-prudential management, and finally, utilizing foreign exchange reserves and capital flow regulation[1] - In the first stage, the central bank uses the counter-cyclical factor to signal when the offshore exchange rate deviates significantly from the central parity, aiming to stabilize the exchange rate and reduce excessive fluctuations[2] - In the second stage, the central bank regulates offshore liquidity through tools like CNH Hibor and uses macro-prudential measures such as the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio (20% at peak), foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio (up to 10%), and cross-border financing macro-prudential adjustment parameter (up to 120%) to manage exchange rate risks[3][8][9][11] - In the third stage, the central bank relies on foreign exchange reserves and capital flow regulation, which, while effective, may reduce international confidence in the RMB and hinder capital market openness[4] Offshore Market and Policy Tools - The central bank and Hong Kong Monetary Authority collaborate to manage offshore RMB liquidity, with the total liquidity provided by HKMA reaching 350 billion yuan at its peak[7] - The central bank's policy toolbox for the offshore RMB market includes regular issuance of RMB treasury bonds and central bank bills in Hong Kong, as well as supporting bond repurchase business under Bond Connect[5] - The central bank's stance on exchange rates can be observed through the swap premium rate, which reflects its attitude towards future exchange rate movements[3] Risks and Market Trends - Key risks include exchange rate overshooting and pro-cyclical behavior exceeding expectations, which could destabilize the market[6] - RMB has shown strong resilience among non-dollar currencies, with the USD/CNH exchange rate fluctuating between 6.2 and 7.4, reflecting its stability[13] - Foreign investors primarily purchase Chinese government bonds and interbank certificates of deposit, with total holdings reaching up to 3,000 billion yuan[12]

格局演变迎景气机遇。回顾2020-2024年四年，行业竞争格局已悄然发生改变，我们预计：1）广东市场：百威销量市占率由2020年的2-3成或衰 退至2024年的2成左右，而珠江则保持持续增长及市占第一的水平（3成及以上）；2）福建市场：百威市占率或从2020年前的7-8成收缩至2024 年6成不到，而华润/喜力则从1成左右上升至25%以上；3）北方市场：燕京在北京河北及局部市场份额持续提升，华润、青啤则出现不同程度的收 缩。这背后的主要原因：1）高档场景收缩及就餐场景转换，2）管理能力及组织文化机制差异。我们认为2025年组织变革效应将进一步加剧格局分 化，从而带来局部市场的景气机遇，我们预计2025年竞争格局变化将呈现（按销量）：百威市占率收缩，华润、重啤市占率持平或微降，青啤、珠 江、燕京市占率提升。 亦可联系对口销售获取 | | | 国泰君安机构销售通讯录 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 姓名 | 区域 | 职务 | 邮箱 | | 邹小双 | 上海 | 研究销售经理 | zouxiaoshuang026001@gtjas.com | | 王亚明 | 上海 | 研究销售经理 ...

Exchange Rate and Central Bank Policy - The central bank has shifted from "enhancing exchange rate flexibility" to "enhancing exchange rate resilience," indicating a stronger stance against unilateral exchange rate expectations[1] - The central bank uses onshore market forward RMB exchange rate operations to guide market expectations, with the current swap premium fluctuating around 1000 pips[1] - The onshore market swap rate is 3.2% (swap point 0.2314/onshore exchange rate 7.33), providing a hedging benefit for investors[1] Investment Returns and Market Dynamics - Investing in 1-year Chinese bonds yields a comprehensive return of around 4.5%, higher than the 4.25% yield of 1-year US Treasury bonds[1] - The swap premium has reached historically high levels, indicating that the central bank's counter-cyclical adjustments are relatively sufficient[2] - The central bank's recent statement to "pause buying government bonds" is crucial for stabilizing exchange rate expectations[2] Asset Pricing and Market Risks - Equity assets face liquidity challenges due to the reversal of loose expectations and some funds seeking overseas diversification[3] - The bond market favors a duration strategy, with 30-year bonds offering better value compared to 10-year bonds and 1-year interbank certificates of deposit[3] - Risks include potential tariff implementation and unexpected US inflation risks[4]

Consumption Sector - The report reviews the evolution of eight major consumption industries in the U.S., including food and beverage, cosmetics, retail, and automotive, highlighting significant changes over the past century[2] - The U.S. beer industry remains in a high prosperity phase despite being mature, driven by product innovation and structural upgrades, with profit margins improving across cycles[2] - The U.S. grocery sector shows growth opportunities through differentiation, with Dollar General focusing on low-income consumers and optimizing procurement costs[2] Technology Sector - Major U.S. tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon are analyzed for their historical evolution, product frameworks, and financial data, indicating robust growth and innovation[5] - The Robotaxi industry in the U.S. is advancing rapidly, with companies like Waymo commercializing operations, suggesting a potential acceleration in development[5] - The inverter market in the U.S. is experiencing fast growth, with increasing penetration rates and a focus on ground-mounted and residential applications[5] Financial Sector - U.S. mutual fund sales fees are declining, driven by a shift towards self-service investment options and the demand for low-cost funds[6] - BlackRock is identified as the largest global asset management firm, primarily focusing on ETFs to meet institutional clients' needs[6] - The U.S. derivatives market is leading globally, with a focus on enhancing institutional returns through advanced trading capabilities[7] Macro Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a "soft landing" with mild re-inflation and high interest rates in 2025, with Treasury yields projected to fluctuate between 3.5% and 4.0%[11] - The report anticipates that the strong dollar will continue, potentially reaching new highs, while the S&P 500 is expected to benefit from economic resilience[11]