行业研究 航空运输 回归常态化增长，供需状态或趋向紧平衡 2024年4月22日 航空业跟踪研究 行业研究·点评报告 1-3月，民航旅客周转量同比2019年连续正增长 基础信息 根据中国民航局的数据，2024年3月，民航旅客周转量较2019年同期增速录 所属行业 航空运输 得5.9%。其中，国内航线旅客周转量同比2019年增长15.7%，国际航线旅客 周转量同比 2019 年增速录得-21.4%。2024 年 1、2 月，民航旅客周转量较 评级 跑赢 大市 2019 年同期增速分别录得 5.2%、14.8%。至此，民航旅客周转量同比 2019 年已实现连续三个月正增长，行业整体运营已回归常态化增长轨道。 恒生指数近52周走势 2024 年一季度，民航旅客周转量较 2019 年同期增长 8.6%，其中国内航线旅 客周转量同比 2019 年增长 20.2%，国际航线旅客周转量同比 2019 年增速录 得-23.2%。 航空公司方面，2024年3月，国航、南航、东航旅客周转量较2019年同期增 速分别录得17.4%、2.7%、6%，合计增速为8.4%。 一季度国际航线加速恢复 根据中国民航局的数据，2024年1-3月 ...

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Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, citing potential valuation recovery driven by steady earnings growth expectations and macroeconomic recovery [3][41] Core Views - The Japanese banking sector experienced significant challenges post the 1990s real estate bubble burst, with the TOPIX Banking Index underperforming the broader market for extended periods [12] - Japanese banks underwent massive restructuring, including mergers and increased overseas operations, to survive in a low-growth, low-interest-rate environment [28][30][32] - Despite the challenges, Japanese banks have maintained a stable ROE of around 5% since 2011, with recent improvements in profitability and valuation [13][41] - The report highlights that China's banking sector, with better economic and interest rate conditions, has stronger profitability compared to Japan, and current low valuations present limited downside risk [3][41] Company-Specific Analysis - Key companies like **Ningbo Bank**, **China Merchants Bank**, **Ruifeng Bank**, and **Changshu Bank** are rated as "Buy" with positive EPS and PE projections for 2023 and 2024 [1] - **Ningbo Bank**: 2023E EPS of 3.75, 2024E EPS of 4.10, with a PE of 5.7x and 5.2x respectively [1] - **China Merchants Bank**: 2023E EPS of 5.61, 2024E EPS of 5.98, with a PE of 5.6x and 5.3x respectively [1] - **Ruifeng Bank**: 2023E EPS of 1.22, 2024E EPS of 1.48, with a PE of 4.2x and 3.4x respectively [1] - **Changshu Bank**: 2023E EPS of 1.21, 2024E EPS of 1.42, with a PE of 5.8x and 4.9x respectively [1] Sector Transformation and Strategies - Japanese banks shifted focus to overseas markets and diversified income streams, with non-interest income contributing up to 60% of net income for major banks [28][35] - The sector saw significant consolidation, with the top five banks increasing their total asset share from 38.8% in 1996 to 64.4% in 2017 [30][32] - Banks adopted a more cautious approach to lending and asset allocation, leading to lower credit costs and non-performing loan ratios [38][41] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the current low valuations in the banking sector present opportunities for long-term investors, particularly in high-quality banks like **China Merchants Bank** and **Ningbo Bank**, as well as smaller banks with unique business models like **Changshu Bank** and **Ruifeng Bank** [41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Accumulate" [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - Hangzhou Bank is focusing on building a distinctive label in science and technology finance, aiming to become "China's Silicon Valley Bank" and is progressing towards a "Science and Technology 3.0" model driven by data and industry specialization [1][11][26]. - The bank has established a comprehensive product system to meet the financial needs of science and technology enterprises at different life stages, with a financing exposure balance of 48.1 billion yuan by the end of 2022 [1][29]. - The bank's organizational structure has evolved from a technology branch to a dedicated science and technology finance headquarters, enhancing its competitive advantage in the sector [1][32]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Hangzhou Bank, established in 1996, has a strong presence in Zhejiang Province and is expanding into economically developed regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [8][11]. - As of the end of 2023, the bank's total assets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 14.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.15% [8]. Science and Technology Finance Development - The bank is deeply engaged in regions with active innovation economies, such as Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nanjing, and Hefei, which are home to numerous high-tech enterprises [1][11]. - By the end of 2021, the number of high-tech enterprises in Zhejiang exceeded 28,300, providing a fertile ground for the bank's science and technology finance initiatives [11]. Product System - The bank has developed a "6+1" product system that includes various loan products tailored to different stages of enterprise development, such as risk pool loans for startups and equity pledge repurchase for mature companies [1][29][34]. Organizational Structure - The bank has continuously reformed its organizational structure, establishing a dedicated science and technology finance headquarters in 2023 to enhance its service capabilities [1][32]. Risk Control Mechanism - Hangzhou Bank implements an independent approval mechanism for science and technology enterprises, ensuring a tailored approach to risk management [1][29]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The reasonable stock price for Hangzhou Bank is estimated to be between 13.2 and 15.8 yuan, indicating a potential upside of approximately 19% to 42% [1][3].