Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 5902.69, up 1.27% for the day and 31.15% year-to-date[3] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6512.61, up 0.30% for the day and 10.25% year-to-date[3] - Oracle's stock surged 36% to a record high, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $250 billion, reaching $922.24 billion[9] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks in Hong Kong saw significant gains, with JD.com up 3.6% and Baidu up over 2%[9] - Financial stocks also performed well, with Agricultural Bank rising 3.5% and China Construction Bank up 2.84%[9] - Semiconductor stocks were active, with SMIC gaining 3.6%[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.1% month-over-month in August, marking the first decline in four months, strengthening the case for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[9] - Japan's manufacturing sentiment index rose to 13, the highest in three years, indicating improved economic confidence[14] Investment Trends - Net inflows from mainland investors into Hong Kong stocks amounted to HKD 7.566 billion on September 10[9] - AI infrastructure stocks like CoreWeave rose by 16.88%, reflecting growing investor interest in the sector[9]

Market Performance - US stock indices closed at record highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 45,711.34 (+0.43%), Nasdaq at 21,879.49 (+0.37%), and S&P 500 at 6,512.61 (+0.27%) [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index reached a nearly four-year high at 25,938.13 (+1.19%), driven by significant inflows of southbound funds totaling HKD 10.231 billion [10] - Major technology stocks in the US saw gains, with Google up over 2% and Meta, Nvidia, and Amazon rising over 1% [10] Sector Highlights - Gold and precious metals stocks maintained strong performance, with Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold reaching historical highs [10] - Real estate stocks surged, particularly Shimao Group and Country Garden, both increasing over 27% due to policy optimizations in major cities [10] - Bank stocks also performed well, with UnitedHealth Group rising over 8% and Goldman Sachs nearly 3% [10] Economic Indicators - US labor market data showed weakness, reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [10] - Japan's machine tool orders for August increased by 8.1% year-on-year, indicating improved manufacturing demand [13] - The NFIB small business confidence index in the US reached 100.8, the highest since January 2025 [13] Notable Company Developments - Oracle's stock rose 1.32% and surged over 26% in after-hours trading following a strong earnings report, projecting a 77% increase in cloud infrastructure revenue for FY2026 [10] - Nebius, an AI infrastructure company, saw its stock jump nearly 50% after securing a $19.7 billion contract with Microsoft [10] - Apple launched its iPhone 17 series, with the base model starting at $799, while the iPhone 17 Pro starts at $1,099 [14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "Outperform" rating for the sector, reflecting strong performance expectations for the "Seven Giants" in the U.S. stock market [5]. Core Insights - The "Seven Giants" have reported strong quarterly earnings, with an average revenue growth of 17% year-over-year and a net profit growth of 24%, driven primarily by cloud services and AI investments [1][2]. - Capital expenditures have significantly increased among major companies to support AI infrastructure and long-term strategic initiatives, with an average increase of 72% year-over-year [28]. - Despite strong earnings, macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks remain a concern for future performance [1]. Summary by Company Apple - For FY2025Q3, total revenue reached $94 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations of $89.3 billion [2][31]. - iPhone revenue grew 14% to $44.6 billion, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 16 series [32]. Amazon - In 2025Q2, total revenue was $167.7 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations [3][13]. - AWS revenue grew 18% to $30.9 billion, aligning with market expectations, while net profit surged 35% to $18.2 billion, exceeding expectations by 27% [3][13]. Alphabet - For 2025Q2, total revenue was $96.4 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [3][13]. - Google Cloud revenue grew 32% to $13.6 billion, significantly improving profit margins [20]. Meta - In 2025Q2, total revenue reached $47.5 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [4][13]. - Advertising revenue grew 21.5% to $46.5 billion, driven by AI-enhanced advertising tools [21]. Microsoft - For FY2025Q4, total revenue was $76.4 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations [10][13]. - Azure revenue grew 39%, contributing significantly to overall growth [20]. Nvidia - In FY2026Q2, total revenue reached $46.7 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [11][13]. - Data center revenue grew 56% to $41.1 billion, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure [22]. Tesla - In 2025Q2, total revenue was $22.5 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline, falling short of market expectations [12][13]. - Automotive revenue decreased 16% to $16.7 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in the automotive sector [42]. Future Guidance - Most companies provided optimistic guidance for the next quarter, with expected revenue growth averaging 22% year-over-year [43]. - Apple expects FY2025Q4 revenue growth in the mid to high single digits, while Amazon anticipates a 10% to 13% increase in net sales for 2025Q3 [44][45]. - Microsoft forecasts revenue growth of 14% to 16% for FY2026Q1, driven by strong Azure performance [45].

Market Overview - On September 8, the Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 16.705 billion[9] - Major tech stocks surged, with Baidu rising by 9.48% and Alibaba and NetEase both increasing by over 4%[9] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,633.91, reflecting a 0.85% increase year-to-date[3] Sector Performance - The AI hardware sector experienced a pullback, while the previously lagging robotics sector saw a strong rebound, driven by government support for technological innovation[9] - Several paper manufacturers implemented a dual strategy of price hikes and production halts, leading to a strong performance in the paper sector, with Chenming Paper rising by 8%[9] - Gold stocks showed mixed results, with some declining despite a general rise in the sector, as gold prices reached a new high of USD 3,640 per ounce[12] IPO and Market Activity - Dahon, a folding bike manufacturer, is set to list in Hong Kong on September 9, with initial fundraising of approximately HKD 390 million and an oversubscription rate of 6,688 times[9] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 2.12%, reflecting a positive trend in popular Chinese stocks[12] Economic Indicators - China's August exports totaled USD 321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, while imports were USD 219.48 billion, up 1.3%[14] - The trade surplus for August was USD 102.33 billion, exceeding expectations[14] Global Market Trends - The Nikkei 225 index closed at 43,643.81, up 1.45%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.40%[3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.21%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.96%[3]

Global Market Overview - The US labor market shows significant cooling, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [9][15] - The Chinese stock market is supported by continuous inflows of southbound funds, while the A-share market experiences adjustments, particularly in high-tech stocks, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding to 3,800 points [14][16] - Japan's manufacturing sector continues to contract, but wage growth accelerates, and the US-Japan trade relationship stabilizes, leading to a rebound in the stock market [18][20] - European markets are under pressure due to concerns over the US economic outlook and geopolitical tensions, with major indices declining [19][21] Economic Data Insights - The US economic growth momentum is slowing, with financial liquidity tightening and rising economic surprise indices, while consumer resilience is noted despite a cooling job market [30][38] - In China, structural recovery is observed, with policies gradually showing effects, but challenges remain in demand insufficiency [51][56] Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report emphasizes capturing opportunities in bond assets during the rate cut cycle and highlights that economic recession may occur abruptly rather than gradually [10][52] - It suggests that the US economy may enter a stagflation phase, leading to a shift in asset allocation strategies, favoring bonds over equities in a recession scenario [51][69] - The report recommends increasing commodity positions, particularly in gold, while maintaining a cautious approach towards industrial metals based on economic conditions [67][73]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continued its downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,059, down 1.12% for the day and up 24.92% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.85%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.25%, reflecting a broader market decline[3] - Major sectors such as semiconductor and chip stocks led the decline, while film, banking, and dining stocks showed resilience with gains[9] Oil and Gold Market - Oil stocks declined as investors focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, with international oil prices dropping over 2% on September 4[9] - Gold stocks experienced significant losses, with Tongguan Gold falling nearly 9%, despite spot gold prices reaching new highs recently[9] U.S. Market Performance - On September 4, U.S. markets saw all three major indices rise, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high, up 0.83%[9] - The ADP report indicated a weaker-than-expected increase in private sector employment, with only 54,000 jobs added in August, raising expectations for a potential Fed rate cut[9] Company Highlights - Broadcom's Q3 adjusted net revenue reached $15.95 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, and the company projected Q4 revenue of approximately $17.4 billion, also above forecasts[10] - Lululemon lowered its fiscal year earnings forecast, with Q2 net revenue of $2.53 billion slightly below expectations, leading to a nearly 16% drop in after-hours trading[10] Japanese Market Insights - The Japanese stock market rebounded on September 4, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 1.5%, driven by strong performances in the technology sector[13] - Notable gains were seen in SoftBank Group, which surged 6.5%, and Advantest, which rose 4.7%[13]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,343, down 0.60% for the day and up 26.34% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.78% to 5,684, with a year-to-date increase of 27.21%[3] - The S&P 500 index rose 0.51% to 6,448, with a year-to-date gain of 9.63%[3] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks in Hong Kong experienced declines, impacting the overall market sentiment[9] - The banking, insurance, and brokerage sectors showed weak performance, contributing to the market downturn[9] - Real estate stocks weakened, with Shimao Group dropping over 6% and several others falling more than 3%[9] Economic Indicators - U.S. job openings fell to a 10-month low, indicating a gradual decrease in labor demand amid policy uncertainties[9] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month have risen to nearly 100%[9] Notable Stock Movements - Morgan Stanley raised its year-end gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, which positively influenced gold and precious metal stocks, with Zhaojin Mining and Lingbao Gold both rising over 6%[9] - Salesforce reported Q2 revenue of $10.24 billion, a 9.8% year-on-year increase, but its stock fell 4% post-earnings due to a less optimistic Q3 outlook[10] International Market Trends - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell 0.88% amid political uncertainties and reduced expectations for short-term interest rate hikes[13] - Foreign investment in the Japanese stock market has reached its highest level in a decade, indicating strong interest from international investors[13]

Market Overview - On September 2, the Hong Kong stock market saw all three major indices decline, failing to maintain the previous day's upward momentum[9] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 9.281 billion on the same day[9] - Major tech stocks generally fell, with Kuaishou down over 2%, and Meituan, Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com each down over 1%[9] Sector Performance - Semiconductor and chip stocks experienced a pullback, with Shanghai Fudan down nearly 8%[9] - ZTE Corporation's stock dropped over 7% due to second-quarter earnings falling short of market expectations, reporting revenue of CNY 71.553 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.51%, and a net profit of CNY 5.058 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.77%[9] - Automotive stocks showed gains, with expectations of a 10% year-on-year increase in national retail sales of passenger vehicles in 2025[9] Banking and Oil Sector - Banking stocks rose, with Agricultural Bank of China up nearly 3%, and other major banks also seeing gains[9] - As of the end of August, 42 listed banks reported a total revenue exceeding CNY 2.9 trillion, a year-on-year increase of over 1%[9] - Oil stocks strengthened as international oil prices rose, with WTI crude up 0.94% to USD 64.61 per barrel, and Brent crude up 1.01% to USD 68.16 per barrel[9] U.S. Market Impact - On September 2, U.S. stock indices collectively fell as investors weighed the latest developments in trade tensions[9] - A U.S. appeals court ruled that many of Trump's global tariffs were illegal, which could lead to the federal government potentially having to refund tens of billions of dollars, further straining the fiscal situation[9] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 4.3%, while the 30-year yield reached 4.99%, the highest level since July 18[12]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,617, up 2.15% year-to-date, with a 27.70% increase since the beginning of the year[4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.20%, with a year-to-date increase of 29.79%[4] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.46%, with a year-to-date growth of 15.63%[4] - The Nikkei 225 Index fell by 1.24%, with a year-to-date increase of 5.75%[4] Sector Highlights - Alibaba's stock surged by 18.5% following strong earnings, driven by growth in cloud services and AI initiatives[10] - Gold prices approached historical highs, with a significant increase in gold and silver stocks, including a 16% rise in Tongguan Gold[10] - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with InnoTek rising over 12%, supported by projected revenue growth in the global semiconductor industry[10] Investment Trends - Net inflow of southbound funds reached HKD 11.9 billion on September 1[10] - Pharmaceutical outsourcing and innovative drug concepts saw gains, with WuXi Biologics up over 8%[10] - Automotive stocks generally declined, but NIO rose over 4% amid strong delivery numbers from various electric vehicle manufacturers[10]

国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 宏观周报（2025/8/25-8/29） 拥抱资产，重视基本面 要点摘要 【上周焦点】 【宏观经济概览】 2025 年 9 月 1 日 宏观周报 主要股市指数一年表现 主要利率一年表现 主要商品指数一年表现 ⚫ 高频数据观察：美国经济增长动能边际放缓，消费显示韧 性，就业市场继续降温，地产需求边际回升；中美经济意外 指数上升，日欧好转。 ⚫ 本周重点关注：美国：8月PMI、8月就业数据。 【观点及配置建议】 ⚫ 1-7月中国整体经济态势"稳中有进"，政策效果逐步显 现，但基本面仍是结构性非全面性的复苏，需求端结构性分 化明显，生产端动能转换加速，依然存在需求不足的挑战。 未来的增长将更依赖于科技创新、产业升级和内需潜力的持 续释放，更需要政策持续的保驾护航。 ⚫ 享受流动性充裕与风险偏好回升带来的"牛市"，把握结构 性机会，挖掘政策受益且有基本面持续复苏支撑的板块；同 时重视宏观对冲，跟踪并预防经济的尾部风险。 国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 曾伟杰, +852 2899 8300，javezeng@guosen.com.cn 一、全球市场回顾 大类资产表现 主要汇率一年表现 黄金近一 ...