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| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|--------------------------------------| | 2024 \n投资要点 | 年 05 月 24 日 \n利安科技（ 300784.SZ ） | | 公司研究●证券研究报告 \n新股覆盖研究 | | | 下周二（5 月 28 日）有一只创业板新股"利安科技"申购，发行价格为 28.30 元、 | 交易数据 | | | | 发行市盈率为 22.40 倍（每股发行价格除以每股收益，每股收益按 2023 年经审计 | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 的扣除非经常性损益前后孰低的净利润除以本次发行后总股本计算）。 | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 利安科技（ 300784 ）：公司主要从事注塑产品以及精密注塑模具的研发、生产和销 | 总股本（百 ...

2024年05月25日 行业研究●证券研究报告 通信 行业周报 英伟达业绩超预期，大模型价格战开启 投资评级 领先大市-A维持 投资要点 1、本周回顾 首选股票 评级 本周通信(中信) 下跌2.91%，同期上证指数下跌2.07%，深证成指下跌2.93%， 600941.SH 中国移动 增持-B 创业板指下跌2.49%，沪深300下跌2.08%。从板块来着，高频PCB本周表现最 002049.SZ 紫光国微 买入-B 佳，涨幅达0.04%，光纤相对弱势，跌幅达8.05%。 一年行业表现 涨幅前三的个股为：意华股份(24.63%)、ST中嘉(15.00%)、阿莱德(14.53%)。通 信行业再度下挫。此外，AI算力指数本周下跌4.44%、东数西算指数下跌4.26%； 专网领域标的佳讯飞鸿下跌6.60%、海能达下跌6.82%。我们认为本周A股市场 趋于回调。通信产业驱动较多，持续催化。看好全板块投资机会。 2、季度专题（算力-大模型）：算力基建持续推进，国产大模型降价 2.1信通院：算力枢纽20毫秒时延圈已覆盖主要城市。近日，2024年一季度我国 算力网络质量监测工作简报发布。8大国家算力枢纽节点的20毫秒（m ...

2024年05月25日 行业研究●证券研究报告 通信 行业周报 英伟达业绩超预期，大模型价格战开启 投资评级 领先大市-A维持 投资要点 1、本周回顾 首选股票 评级 本周通信(中信) 下跌2.91%，同期上证指数下跌2.07%，深证成指下跌2.93%， 600941.SH 中国移动 增持-B 创业板指下跌2.49%，沪深300下跌2.08%。从板块来着，高频PCB本周表现最 002049.SZ 紫光国微 买入-B 佳，涨幅达0.04%，光纤相对弱势，跌幅达8.05%。 一年行业表现 涨幅前三的个股为：意华股份(24.63%)、ST中嘉(15.00%)、阿莱德(14.53%)。通 信行业再度下挫。此外，AI算力指数本周下跌4.44%、东数西算指数下跌4.26%； 专网领域标的佳讯飞鸿下跌6.60%、海能达下跌6.82%。我们认为本周A股市场 趋于回调。通信产业驱动较多，持续催化。看好全板块投资机会。 2、季度专题（算力-大模型）：算力基建持续推进，国产大模型降价 2.1信通院：算力枢纽20毫秒时延圈已覆盖主要城市。近日，2024年一季度我国 算力网络质量监测工作简报发布。8大国家算力枢纽节点的20毫秒（m ...

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to a publicly listed company in the technology sector, specifically focusing on software solutions and services. Core Points and Arguments - The company reported a revenue increase of 15% year-over-year, reaching $500 million in the last quarter [1] - Gross margin improved to 70%, up from 65% in the previous year, indicating better cost management and pricing strategies [2] - The company highlighted a significant growth in its cloud services segment, which saw a 25% increase in subscriptions [3] - Management emphasized the importance of innovation, stating that R&D expenses increased by 10% to support new product development [4] - The company plans to expand its market presence in Asia, targeting a 20% growth in that region over the next fiscal year [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The company mentioned potential risks related to supply chain disruptions, which could impact product delivery timelines [6] - There was a discussion on the competitive landscape, noting that new entrants in the market could pose challenges to market share [7] - The management expressed confidence in achieving long-term growth targets, despite short-term market volatility [8]

Real Estate Policy - Recent real estate policies have led to a slight rebound in second-tier cities, with transaction volumes reaching 41.1% of pre-pandemic averages[29] - First and third-tier cities continue to show no significant improvement, remaining in a downward trend[29] - The current policies emphasize structural adjustments rather than aggressive demand stimulation, focusing on existing inventory rather than creating new demand[29] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate a more hawkish stance than previously expected, with a projected inflation return to 2% over the medium term[17] - The Fed is satisfied with the current economic performance, expecting a gradual balance in the labor market and a stable unemployment rate[16] - The market anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by September 2024, with the dollar index returning to above 105[31][20] Global Economic Trends - Manufacturing PMI in developed economies has generally rebounded, with the U.S. PMI rising to 50.9, indicating sustained domestic demand[38] - In contrast, the Eurozone's PMI remains low at 47.4, suggesting a potential for more aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank[38] - The U.S. government has imposed new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and batteries, with rates reaching up to 100% for certain products, reflecting a protective stance[43][58] Commodity Prices - Recent trends show a decline in gold, oil, and copper prices, indicating a broader market adjustment[9][71][10] - The overall yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has increased, while Chinese bond yields have decreased, widening the yield gap between the two countries[66][55]

Group 1 - The overall profitability of the A-share market in Q1 2024 shows a slowdown in revenue growth, with a slight recovery in gross margin and net margin, but still below last year's levels. Revenue growth for the entire A-share market was 0.2% in Q1 2024, compared to 1.5% in the previous year [29][50] - The sales gross margin for the entire A-share market in Q1 2024 was 16.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year, while the net margin was 9.1%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year but lower than the same period last year [29][50] - The asset turnover rate for the entire A-share market decreased by 0.1 percentage points in Q1 2024 compared to Q4 2023, indicating a slight decline in efficiency [11][59] Group 2 - The return on equity (ROE) for the entire A-share market in Q1 2024 was 8.0%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points from Q4 2023, reflecting a decline in profitability [11][14] - The stable and consumer sectors showed better performance in terms of ROE, while the growth sector lagged behind, with the consumer sector maintaining positive growth trends [11][59] - Specific industries such as electronics, agriculture, and light industry experienced higher profitability growth in Q1 2024, while real estate and new energy sectors faced challenges [11][56] Group 3 - The financial sector's net profit improved in Q1 2024, with a net margin increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to Q4 2023, indicating a recovery in financial performance [11][59] - The asset-liability ratio for the entire A-share market showed a slight increase, with the growth and financial sectors experiencing higher ratios compared to the previous quarter [11][59] - The consumer and stable sectors maintained high profitability levels, while the growth and cyclical sectors showed weaker performance [11][59]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating an expected return exceeding 15% over the next six months compared to the CSI 300 index [58]. Core Insights - The company, Dameng Data (688692.SH), provides various database software and related technical services to large and medium-sized enterprises, government agencies, and institutions. The company has shown revenue growth from 743 million yuan in 2021 to 794 million yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 317 million to 340 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.27% to 18.27% [24][65]. - The company has a strong shareholder background, with the largest shareholder being China Software, holding 25.21% of the shares. The founder, Feng Yucai, has a rich research background and controls 40.55% of the voting rights [39][46]. - Dameng Data has over 40 years of independent research and development experience in the database field and has become a key player in the domestic database software industry, achieving significant technological breakthroughs [46][37]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 743 million yuan, 688 million yuan, and 794 million yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.04%, -7.40%, and 15.44% [19]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 444 million yuan, 269 million yuan, and 296 million yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 196.84%, -39.35%, and 10.07% [19][24]. - For the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 166 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.79%, and a net profit of 56 million yuan, up 65.86% year-on-year [24]. Industry Overview - The domestic database market is experiencing significant growth, with the market size expected to reach 128.68 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.1% [36]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of information security and the need for domestic database solutions due to rising concerns over data breaches and supply chain security [28]. - Dameng Data's products have been widely adopted across various sectors, including finance, energy, aviation, and government, with a market share ranking among the top domestic database vendors from 2019 to 2023 [11][46]. Competitive Analysis - Compared to peer companies such as Zhongwang Software and Xinghuan Technology, Dameng Data's revenue is below the average of 1.885 billion yuan, but its gross profit margin is in the mid-to-high range of the industry [4][52]. - The average gross profit margin for comparable companies is 64.58%, indicating that while Dameng Data's revenue is lower, its profitability metrics are competitive [52]. Future Prospects - The company plans to invest in five projects with a total investment of approximately 235 million yuan, focusing on upgrading its database management systems and developing new cloud database products [64][41]. - A significant partnership with Huawei has been established to enhance the company's database integrated machine solutions, indicating a strategic move towards digital transformation and innovation [40][46].

Revenue and Budget Analysis - In April 2024, the national general public budget revenue was 20,049 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, a significant drop of 1.3 percentage points compared to March[10] - The decline in personal income tax contributed -0.8 percentage points to the year-on-year budget revenue, indicating a decrease in annual bonus payments due to the delayed effect of the Spring Festival[10] - The value-added tax's contribution to the April budget revenue decline was -2.9 percentage points, reflecting ongoing high base effects from tax deferrals in previous quarters[10] Expenditure and Investment Insights - General public budget expenditure in April increased by 9.0 percentage points year-on-year, reaching a growth rate of 6.1%[10] - Infrastructure investment, particularly in agriculture, rural community affairs, and environmental protection, significantly contributed to the expenditure growth, rising by 2.2 percentage points to 1.7%[10] - Government fund income fell by 18.2% year-on-year in April, with land transfer income declining by 21.2%, indicating a cooling real estate market[10] Future Outlook and Risks - The slow issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds is expected to further reduce government fund expenditures, potentially leading to a decline in traditional infrastructure investment growth in Q2[10] - The ongoing pressure on real estate demand and insufficient internal consumption momentum may necessitate a shift in infrastructure investment leadership from local to central government[10] - The risk of broad fiscal financing falling short of expectations remains a concern, potentially impacting economic stability[10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" [1][2] Core Views - The company has turned profitable in Q1 2024, driven by capacity switching and demand recovery in the niche storage market [1] - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in DRAM prices due to a shift in production capacity towards high-value products like HBM and DDR5, with an anticipated shortage in DDR4 supply [1] - The company reported a significant drop in revenue in 2023 but has shown signs of recovery in Q1 2024, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 21.32% [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's storage chip revenue was 4.077 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.51%, with a gross margin of 32.99%, down 7.10 percentage points [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.761 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 29.14%, and a net profit of 161 million yuan, down 92.15% [2][3] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.32%, and a net profit of 205 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.45% [1][2] Market Outlook - The company expects to achieve mass production of DDR3 4Gb/2Gb products in 2024, with DDR4 8Gb products already in trial production [1] - The company anticipates that by the end of 2024, approximately 80% of DRAM production capacity will be switched to DDR5, leading to a potential shortage in DDR4 supply [1] - The company is actively expanding its MCU product line and has successfully launched over 600 MCU products, with a focus on automotive applications [2] Revenue Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 7.320 billion yuan in 2024, 9.077 billion yuan in 2025, and 10.529 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 27.1%, 24.0%, and 16.0% respectively [2][3] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 992 million yuan, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [2][3]