Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry, suggesting that the industry stock index is expected to perform in line with the benchmark over the next 12 months [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of commercial health insurance in empowering pharmaceutical innovation and supporting the development of a multi-tiered medical security system [2][19]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to medical insurance fund management, advocating for the integration of commercial health insurance with basic medical insurance to enhance the quality of pharmaceutical industry development [2][19]. Market Review - The Hong Kong stock market saw the Hang Seng Composite Index rise by 0.4% while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.8%, underperforming the market by 2.2 percentage points during the week of December 6-13, 2024 [9][15]. - In the A-share market, the CSI 300 Index declined by 1%, with the pharmaceutical and biological index down by 0.9%, outperforming the market by 0.1 percentage points [15]. - Among 13 pharmaceutical sub-sectors, offline pharmacies, pharmaceutical circulation, and traditional Chinese medicine showed gains of 5.0%, 1.0%, and 0.6% respectively, while other sectors experienced declines [15]. Important News - The National Medical Insurance Administration held a national medical security work conference, outlining plans for 2025 that include promoting the experience of the Sanming medical reform and enhancing the role of commercial health insurance [2][19]. - The report mentions the implementation of centralized procurement for medical consumables and the introduction of new pricing management measures to regulate pharmaceutical prices [19][22]. - Significant developments include the announcement of a collaboration between Duality Biologics and GSK for an ADC drug, with a total agreement value exceeding $1 billion [23]. Sub-sector Performance - The report notes that in 2024, the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors are valued at 0.5-1 times PEG, while traditional Chinese medicine and internet healthcare are valued at 1-2 times PEG [11]. - For 2025, the pharmaceutical sector is projected to exceed 2 times PEG, indicating potential growth opportunities [11].

Inflation Insights - The US November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with expectations but higher than October's 0.1% increase[9] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with previous values[21] - PPI for November rose by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.6%, indicating upward inflation pressure[13] Economic Concerns - There are three main concerns regarding inflation: a potential wage-inflation spiral, rising inflation expectations due to political uncertainties, and an unexpected increase in PPI[11] - The 12-month rolling federal deficit reached $2.46 trillion, up from $2.26 trillion, reflecting a widening fiscal gap[26] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut key interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Swiss National Bank lowered rates by 50 basis points, exceeding market expectations[14] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance, potentially reducing the number of rate cuts planned for next year[13] Market Trends - Recent trading patterns have shown a return to inflation and tightening trades, reflecting market reactions to inflation data and central bank policies[18] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year bonds increased by 25 basis points to 4.40%, while 2-year yields rose by 15 basis points to 4.25%[26] Global Economic Indicators - Eurozone industrial production remained flat in October, while Germany's trade surplus narrowed to €134 billion from €169 billion[34] - Japan's third-quarter GDP was revised up to a 0.3% increase quarter-on-quarter, indicating slight economic improvement[39]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on companies with strong international R&D capabilities, such as Kangfang Biopharma (9926.HK) [8][61]. Core Insights - The global pharmaceutical index has shown a significant decline post-pandemic, with the MSCI China Pharmaceutical Index down by 16.2%, underperforming the market by 32% [8][24]. - The report highlights that while the stock market has returned to pre-pandemic levels, the R&D capabilities within the Chinese pharmaceutical sector have improved significantly [8][61]. - The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts are expected to favor leading companies, particularly those with international R&D capabilities [8][61]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S.-China relations, particularly for CRO and biotech companies engaged in drug development in the U.S. [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Global Pharmaceutical Sector Review - The pharmaceutical sector has underperformed compared to the overall market, with significant declines noted in various regions, particularly in China [16][24]. - The report indicates that the Chinese pharmaceutical market has seen a 24% decline in static P/E ratios, reflecting a challenging environment [16][24]. 2. 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates that the impact of drug procurement policies will diminish, with a focus on the successful transformation of leading pharmaceutical companies [8][9]. - It suggests that the medical device sector will be a key area for future reforms, with a stable growth outlook for medical consumables driven by clinical demand [8][9]. - The report recommends focusing on several categories of companies for investment, including those in the biotech and pharmaceutical sectors with strong pipelines and innovation [9][47]. 3. Subsector Outlook - **Biotechnology/Pharmaceuticals**: The impact of centralized procurement is decreasing, and leading companies are successfully transforming [10][62]. - **CRO/CDMO**: The global biopharmaceutical investment environment is recovering, but challenges remain for Chinese companies with significant overseas operations [10][62]. - **Medical Devices**: The impact of centralized procurement is neutral to positive, with upcoming policies expected to support growth [10][13]. - **Medical Services**: The report notes significant pressure on serious medical services due to policy impacts, while consumer healthcare is expected to grow rapidly [10][13]. - **Pharmaceutical Distribution**: The prepayment policy for medical insurance funds is expected to improve cash flow for pharmaceutical distribution companies [10][13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the commercial aerospace industry, suggesting it is entering a golden era with significant growth potential [1]. Core Insights - The global commercial aerospace market is experiencing stable growth, with China's market maintaining a double-digit growth rate. In 2023, the global aerospace market size reached $570 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with the commercial segment accounting for $445 billion, up 5% [2][16]. - China's commercial aerospace market is projected to grow from approximately ¥1.8 trillion in 2023 to ¥2.3 trillion in 2024, and further to ¥2.8 trillion by 2025, reflecting a robust annual growth rate of 27% [2][17]. - The number of global satellite launches has significantly increased, with 224 launches in 2023, up from 81 in 2013, indicating a growing interest and investment in satellite technology [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Commercial Aerospace Market Overview - The commercial aerospace index has shown a year-to-date increase of 23.34%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng [4]. - The report highlights the increasing activity in satellite deployment, with 2,781 commercial satellites launched in 2023, a 20% increase from the previous year [44]. 2. Satellite Deployment and Technology - The report emphasizes the rapid growth in the number of active satellites, with over 10,000 satellites in orbit as of June 2024, 90% of which are in low Earth orbit (LEO) [63]. - The report notes that the global satellite market is expanding, with the market size increasing from $279 billion in 2021 to $285 billion in 2023 [44]. 3. Launch Activity and Technological Advancements - The report details the advancements in rocket technology, particularly the shift towards reusable rockets, which are expected to lower launch costs significantly [40]. - SpaceX has set a record with its Falcon 9 rocket, achieving 24 successful launches, showcasing the effectiveness of reusable technology [40]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The report outlines the competitive landscape, with the U.S., China, and Russia dominating global launch activities. The U.S. accounted for 52% of global launches in 2023, while China followed with a significant increase in its launch frequency [26][28]. - The report highlights the emergence of several large-scale satellite constellations, particularly in China, with plans for over 10,000 satellites from companies like Qianfan and Guowang [64].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer industry, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand expansion and identifying potential investment opportunities in various segments [1]. Core Insights - The consumer industry in 2024 is characterized by weak overall demand, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary items are weaker. The report highlights the impact of government policies promoting consumption, particularly in durable goods through trade-in programs [1][10]. - The report anticipates a more significant focus on domestic consumption in 2025, with local governments expected to introduce new consumption-promoting policies tailored to regional conditions [1][52]. - Consumer behavior is shifting towards rational consumption, with a focus on value for money and experiential purchases. This trend is leading to a divergence in performance among international consumer goods companies operating in China [1][59]. - The report discusses the challenges faced by companies looking to expand internationally, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and trade policy changes, especially with the U.S. [1][65]. Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The overall retail sales growth in 2024 was 3.5%, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, with essential goods maintaining a growth rate of 9.9% in the first ten months [25][32]. - The performance of listed companies varied, with discretionary sectors like apparel and cosmetics showing weaker results compared to essential goods [42][47]. 2025 Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences, focusing on high-growth segments such as outdoor products and innovative consumer goods [1][12]. - It identifies key characteristics for successful consumer companies, including strong supply chain management, pricing power, and the ability to localize products for international markets [1][86]. Sub-industry Insights - **Dairy and Upstream Agriculture**: Expected recovery in demand and potential price stabilization in raw milk by late 2025 [94]. - **Sportswear**: Anticipated growth driven by increased participation in sports and outdoor activities, with a focus on brand recovery potential [101]. - **Footwear OEM**: Completion of inventory replenishment and emphasis on quality customer structures [106]. - **Dining**: Increased competition and the need for innovation to maintain market share [120]. - **Retail**: The sector is undergoing transformation, with a focus on consumer insights and product differentiation [133]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, such as dairy, outdoor products, and trendy consumer goods, while being cautious about export-oriented companies facing geopolitical risks [1][14].

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to stabilize and recover in 2024, with a new equilibrium emerging amid fluctuations[5] - The U.S. economy is showing robust growth, while Europe and Japan are gradually moving out of stagnation, and emerging markets are maintaining momentum[12] - Inflation is anticipated to return to policy targets in Europe by 2025, with central banks continuing to lower interest rates[4] Group 2: U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. economy is projected to have stronger endogenous growth and a higher inflation baseline compared to the previous Trump administration[29] - The "impossible trinity" of policy balance in the U.S. will likely see compromises between policy implementation and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[29] - The labor market remains tight, contributing to persistent inflationary pressures despite high interest rates cooling demand[17] Group 3: European Economic Challenges - Europe faces challenges of deindustrialization, with external demand shrinking due to trade policies, impacting job creation and wage inflation[4] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its rate-cutting pace to support economic recovery[4] Group 4: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is experiencing weak recovery in domestic demand, with external challenges increasing due to global trade protectionism[29] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes are expected to be slow following initial increases, as domestic consumption and investment may weaken[29] Group 5: Emerging Markets Performance - Emerging markets are projected to grow at 4.2% in 2025, with Southeast Asia and South Asia being the main growth drivers despite potential slowdowns[30] - The IMF has slightly downgraded growth forecasts for emerging economies, reflecting increased risks and uncertainties in the global landscape[30]

Employment Data Insights - November non-farm employment increased by 227,000, with October revised up from 12,000 to 36,000, and September from 223,000 to 255,000, totaling an upward revision of 56,000[9] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.24% from 4.14%, with permanent unemployment increasing by 58,000[11][28] - The labor market gap was calculated at 761,000, indicating a tightening labor market despite the rise in unemployment[10][21] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December increased to 86% due to rising unemployment rates[9] - If November inflation data aligns with expectations, a rate cut in December is likely, but cuts may pause in Q1 2025[14] Sector Performance - Durable goods manufacturing added 26,000 jobs, reflecting a recovery post-strike, while non-durable goods and retail sectors showed weakness[10][24] - Service sectors such as accommodation, food services, and healthcare remained strong, but wholesale and retail sectors weakened[10] Key Economic Indicators - The average hourly wage growth remained stable at 4.0% year-on-year, while weekly wage growth decreased to 3.7%[30] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4, while the services PMI fell to 52.1, indicating mixed economic signals[30] Global Economic Context - Eurozone Q3 GDP growth was revised to 0.4%, with net exports negatively impacting growth[36] - Japan's household consumption declined, but the composite PMI rose above 50, indicating potential recovery[30]

证券研究报告·医药研究 医药行业周报（2024 年第 14 期） 2024 年 12 月 2 日 新版国家医保谈判目录落地 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry, suggesting that the industry stock index is expected to perform in line with the benchmark over the next 12 months [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector underperformed, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index declining by 2.0%, trailing the market by 1.0 percentage points during the week of November 15-22, 2024 [8][14]. - The report notes that the USCC's 2024 annual report emphasizes the rapid narrowing of the innovation gap between China and the US in the biopharmaceutical sector, suggesting that Chinese companies may face increased scrutiny and regulatory challenges when engaging in drug development and research in the US [15][19]. - The report suggests that investors with a higher risk appetite may consider focusing on the CRO sector, while also recommending attention to domestic pharmaceutical demand and reasonably valued medical services and pharmaceutical distribution [8][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report states that the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector's market capitalization accounted for 4.5% as of November 22, 2024, with biotechnology and pharmaceuticals showing a slight increase of 1%, while other sub-sectors experienced declines, particularly CRO with a 7% drop [8][14]. - In the A-share market, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.6%, with the pharmaceutical and biological index down by 2.4%, indicating a general downturn across all 13 pharmaceutical sub-industries [14]. Important News - The USCC's report on November 19, 2024, includes strategic recommendations aimed at curbing China's influence in the biopharmaceutical sector, requiring prior approval for Chinese biotech companies engaging in research or transactions in the US [15]. - A significant policy document from China's National Health Commission and other departments aims to expand the range of medications available at the grassroots level, particularly for chronic diseases, which could lead to substantial market growth in this area [16]. - The report also covers various corporate developments, including partnerships and agreements among pharmaceutical companies, indicating ongoing innovation and collaboration within the industry [20][21][24].

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2024 年第 39 期） 2024 年 11 月 25 日 特朗普接近完成的组阁有何特点 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|-----------------------|------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 【一周焦点】 | | 民银证券研究团队 应习文 | | | | 至当地时间 11 月 24 日，两周半时间内特朗普已经提名所有 15 个 | | 电 话： | +852 3728 8180 | | | | | Email ： | xiwenying@cmbcint.com | | | 内阁部长职务，此外还提名了 20 多名关键人物。本次特朗普的内 阁提名主要呈现以下几个特点：一是组 ...