Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer industry, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand expansion and identifying potential investment opportunities in various segments [1]. Core Insights - The consumer industry in 2024 is characterized by weak overall demand, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary items are weaker. The report highlights the impact of government policies promoting consumption, particularly in durable goods through trade-in programs [1][10]. - The report anticipates a more significant focus on domestic consumption in 2025, with local governments expected to introduce new consumption-promoting policies tailored to regional conditions [1][52]. - Consumer behavior is shifting towards rational consumption, with a focus on value for money and experiential purchases. This trend is leading to a divergence in performance among international consumer goods companies operating in China [1][59]. - The report discusses the challenges faced by companies looking to expand internationally, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and trade policy changes, especially with the U.S. [1][65]. Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The overall retail sales growth in 2024 was 3.5%, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, with essential goods maintaining a growth rate of 9.9% in the first ten months [25][32]. - The performance of listed companies varied, with discretionary sectors like apparel and cosmetics showing weaker results compared to essential goods [42][47]. 2025 Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences, focusing on high-growth segments such as outdoor products and innovative consumer goods [1][12]. - It identifies key characteristics for successful consumer companies, including strong supply chain management, pricing power, and the ability to localize products for international markets [1][86]. Sub-industry Insights - **Dairy and Upstream Agriculture**: Expected recovery in demand and potential price stabilization in raw milk by late 2025 [94]. - **Sportswear**: Anticipated growth driven by increased participation in sports and outdoor activities, with a focus on brand recovery potential [101]. - **Footwear OEM**: Completion of inventory replenishment and emphasis on quality customer structures [106]. - **Dining**: Increased competition and the need for innovation to maintain market share [120]. - **Retail**: The sector is undergoing transformation, with a focus on consumer insights and product differentiation [133]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, such as dairy, outdoor products, and trendy consumer goods, while being cautious about export-oriented companies facing geopolitical risks [1][14].

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to stabilize and recover in 2024, with a new equilibrium emerging amid fluctuations[5] - The U.S. economy is showing robust growth, while Europe and Japan are gradually moving out of stagnation, and emerging markets are maintaining momentum[12] - Inflation is anticipated to return to policy targets in Europe by 2025, with central banks continuing to lower interest rates[4] Group 2: U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. economy is projected to have stronger endogenous growth and a higher inflation baseline compared to the previous Trump administration[29] - The "impossible trinity" of policy balance in the U.S. will likely see compromises between policy implementation and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[29] - The labor market remains tight, contributing to persistent inflationary pressures despite high interest rates cooling demand[17] Group 3: European Economic Challenges - Europe faces challenges of deindustrialization, with external demand shrinking due to trade policies, impacting job creation and wage inflation[4] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its rate-cutting pace to support economic recovery[4] Group 4: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is experiencing weak recovery in domestic demand, with external challenges increasing due to global trade protectionism[29] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes are expected to be slow following initial increases, as domestic consumption and investment may weaken[29] Group 5: Emerging Markets Performance - Emerging markets are projected to grow at 4.2% in 2025, with Southeast Asia and South Asia being the main growth drivers despite potential slowdowns[30] - The IMF has slightly downgraded growth forecasts for emerging economies, reflecting increased risks and uncertainties in the global landscape[30]

Employment Data Insights - November non-farm employment increased by 227,000, with October revised up from 12,000 to 36,000, and September from 223,000 to 255,000, totaling an upward revision of 56,000[9] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.24% from 4.14%, with permanent unemployment increasing by 58,000[11][28] - The labor market gap was calculated at 761,000, indicating a tightening labor market despite the rise in unemployment[10][21] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December increased to 86% due to rising unemployment rates[9] - If November inflation data aligns with expectations, a rate cut in December is likely, but cuts may pause in Q1 2025[14] Sector Performance - Durable goods manufacturing added 26,000 jobs, reflecting a recovery post-strike, while non-durable goods and retail sectors showed weakness[10][24] - Service sectors such as accommodation, food services, and healthcare remained strong, but wholesale and retail sectors weakened[10] Key Economic Indicators - The average hourly wage growth remained stable at 4.0% year-on-year, while weekly wage growth decreased to 3.7%[30] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4, while the services PMI fell to 52.1, indicating mixed economic signals[30] Global Economic Context - Eurozone Q3 GDP growth was revised to 0.4%, with net exports negatively impacting growth[36] - Japan's household consumption declined, but the composite PMI rose above 50, indicating potential recovery[30]

证券研究报告·医药研究 医药行业周报（2024 年第 14 期） 2024 年 12 月 2 日 新版国家医保谈判目录落地 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry, suggesting that the industry stock index is expected to perform in line with the benchmark over the next 12 months [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector underperformed, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index declining by 2.0%, trailing the market by 1.0 percentage points during the week of November 15-22, 2024 [8][14]. - The report notes that the USCC's 2024 annual report emphasizes the rapid narrowing of the innovation gap between China and the US in the biopharmaceutical sector, suggesting that Chinese companies may face increased scrutiny and regulatory challenges when engaging in drug development and research in the US [15][19]. - The report suggests that investors with a higher risk appetite may consider focusing on the CRO sector, while also recommending attention to domestic pharmaceutical demand and reasonably valued medical services and pharmaceutical distribution [8][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report states that the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector's market capitalization accounted for 4.5% as of November 22, 2024, with biotechnology and pharmaceuticals showing a slight increase of 1%, while other sub-sectors experienced declines, particularly CRO with a 7% drop [8][14]. - In the A-share market, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.6%, with the pharmaceutical and biological index down by 2.4%, indicating a general downturn across all 13 pharmaceutical sub-industries [14]. Important News - The USCC's report on November 19, 2024, includes strategic recommendations aimed at curbing China's influence in the biopharmaceutical sector, requiring prior approval for Chinese biotech companies engaging in research or transactions in the US [15]. - A significant policy document from China's National Health Commission and other departments aims to expand the range of medications available at the grassroots level, particularly for chronic diseases, which could lead to substantial market growth in this area [16]. - The report also covers various corporate developments, including partnerships and agreements among pharmaceutical companies, indicating ongoing innovation and collaboration within the industry [20][21][24].

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2024 年第 39 期） 2024 年 11 月 25 日 特朗普接近完成的组阁有何特点 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|-----------------------|------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 【一周焦点】 | | 民银证券研究团队 应习文 | | | | 至当地时间 11 月 24 日，两周半时间内特朗普已经提名所有 15 个 | | 电 话： | +852 3728 8180 | | | | | Email ： | xiwenying@cmbcint.com | | | 内阁部长职务，此外还提名了 20 多名关键人物。本次特朗普的内 阁提名主要呈现以下几个特点：一是组 ...

Company Overview - Current stock price of WH Group (0288 HK) is HKD 6 43 with a total market capitalization of HKD 82 5 billion [2] - The stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 6 50 to HKD 4 41 and an average daily trading volume of HKD 172 6 million over the past 3 months [2] Smithfield Spin-off and Valuation Potential - WH Group plans to spin off its US subsidiary Smithfield for an independent listing on a US exchange with an expected issuance of up to 20% of shares [4] - Post-listing WH Group will retain at least 80% ownership in Smithfield which will continue to be fully consolidated in WH Group's financials [4] - Smithfield's minimum valuation is expected to be no less than its net asset value of USD 5 38 billion as of September 30 [4] - WH Group shareholders will receive a dividend in kind equivalent to 0 35% to 0 45% of Smithfield's enlarged issued share capital [4] - Smithfield's revenue and net profit for 2022 2023 were USD 16 2 billion USD 14 6 billion and USD 724 million USD -70 million respectively [5] - For the first 9 months of 2024 Smithfield reported revenue and profit of USD 10 19 billion and USD 61 million respectively with a post-tax loss of USD 10 million [5] - Smithfield's minimum valuation implies a P E ratio of 8x compared to Tyson and Hormel's 14x P E [5] Financial Performance - WH Group's revenue for 2020 2021 2022 2023 and H1 2024 were USD 25 589 million USD 27 293 million USD 28 136 million USD 26 236 million and USD 12 293 million respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the same periods were USD 828 million USD 1 068 million USD 1 370 million USD 629 million and USD 784 million [6] - Net profit margins were 3 2% 3 9% 4 9% 2 4% and 6 4% respectively [6] - P E ratios were 13x 10x 8x 17x and 8x respectively [6] Industry and Market Context - US hog prices have shown a significant year-over-year recovery in 2024 [9] - Soybean meal prices in the first 10 months of 2024 decreased by 28% year-over-year [12] - Corn prices in the first 10 months of 2024 decreased by 16% year-over-year [12] Peer Comparison - WH Group's 2024E revenue and net profit are forecasted at USD 25 7 billion and USD 1 42 billion respectively with a P E of 7x [12] - Shuanghui Development's 2024E revenue and net profit are forecasted at USD 5 89 billion and USD 5 1 billion respectively with a P E of 15x [12] - Tyson Foods' 2024E revenue and net profit are forecasted at USD 53 6 billion and USD 1 22 billion respectively with a P E of 18x [12] - Hormel's 2024E revenue and net profit are forecasted at USD 12 2 billion and USD 930 million respectively with a P E of 18x [12]

证券研究报告·消费研究 行业研究 2024 年 11 月 15 日 10 月社零超预期，政策加力及双十一提前，耐用及可选品高增 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

证券研究报告·行业研究 事件点评 2024 年 11 月 6 日 特朗普胜选影响——科技/消费/医药/地产行业联合解读 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告·消费研究 行业研究 2024 年 11 月 6 日 湖南衡阳本土"胖东来"——香江百货调改回顾与草根调研 一、香江百货 2012-2014 学习胖东来，调改历程回顾与草根调研 香江百货是湖南衡阳的区域商超业态龙头，于 2012 年全面学习胖东 来，2014 年转型并全面升级商品和服务。其迄今在湖南拥有 25 家香 江百货连锁超市，其中有 3 家为上万平的购物中心，我们系统地梳理 了香江百货学习胖东来的调改历程（见表 1、表 2）。 二、超市调改思考：以香江百货为例，胖东来模式具备可复制性 香江百货于十年前成功调改，与目前永辉胖东来调改，共性和特性： i. 共性：大幅调整货品结构（香江百货与当地商超 40%的货品差异 度）、提升供应链能力、夯实生鲜优势、大幅提升员工工资福利的同 时设立严格的卖场管理和服务标准、提升质控部独立性等。 ii. 特性：香江百货在调改时以自持物业为主（据新闻专访，占 70%）， 具备一定的调改宽容度。调改的时代背景是 10 年前消费升级初现苗 头，与目前有所不同。香江百货在调改初期也遇到各种困难，包括员 工流失率高、引进销路不确定的特色新品、前瞻地大力投入冷链等。 iii ...