Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company 361 Degrees (1361.HK) with a target price of HKD 5.63, indicating a potential upside of 22.7% from the current price of HKD 4.59 [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20% and a net profit growth of 19% for 2024, aligning with expectations. The end-of-period inventory increased by 56% to HKD 2.1 billion due to early stocking for the Spring Festival [5][6]. - The company plans to expand its "super premium store" concept to 100 locations by the end of 2025, aiming to create a store model akin to "Uniqlo" in the sports industry [7][8]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 10-15% for 2025, with a net profit margin projected between 10-12% [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 10.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and a net profit of HKD 1.15 billion, up 19% [5][9]. - The gross profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 41.5%, while the net profit margin remained stable at 11.4% [5][9]. - The report forecasts revenues of HKD 11.24 billion, HKD 12.41 billion, and HKD 13.66 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 10.4%, and 10.1% [8][9]. Inventory and Cash Flow Analysis - The company’s inventory turnover days remained stable at 149 days, with a significant increase in inventory due to early stocking [5][9]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be HKD 70 million, reflecting the impact of early inventory stocking [5][9].

Asset Performance - US 10Y Treasury yield at 4.32%, up 8.0 bp; 2Y yield unchanged at 3.99%[3] - German 10Y Treasury yield increased by 45.0 bp to 2.83%; 2Y yield up 23.0 bp to 2.23%[3] - S&P 500 index down 3.10% to 5770.20; Nasdaq down 3.45% to 18196.22[3] Economic Indicators - US trade deficit reached a record $156.8 billion in January, contributing to a potential GDP contraction of 2.4% in Q1 2025[11] - February non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs, below the expected 160,000; unemployment rate rose to 4.14%[20][22] - Eurozone Q4 GDP revised up to +1.2% YoY, with a slight increase in government spending contribution[30] Market Trends - US stock market continues to weaken, with Nasdaq down 10% since February 19; European markets reaching new highs[10] - Dollar index fell over 5% from around 110 to below 104, while Euro and Pound increased by over 4% and 3% respectively[10] - Increased expectations for three Fed rate cuts in 2025 due to economic slowdown[4] Inflation and Employment - February average hourly earnings rose by 4.0% YoY, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[25] - Eurozone February CPI at +2.4%, slightly above expectations, with core CPI at +2.6%[32] - US manufacturing PMI improved to 52.7, signaling a recovery in manufacturing orders[26]

Macroeconomic Insights - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at approximately 5.0%, consistent with the previous year, emphasizing the need for consumption to play a significant role in achieving this target[8] - The CPI target has been adjusted down to around 2.0%, indicating a shift towards stabilizing prices and addressing inflation and demand gaps as key economic tasks for 2025[13] - The broad deficit scale has increased, with a broad deficit rate of 8.4%, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at five key areas[14] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with expectations for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction likely in mid-2025[16] Consumption and Investment - The importance of boosting consumption has been elevated, with expectations for retail sales growth to exceed 6.0% in 2025, driven by diverse consumption policies and support for new consumption formats[22] - Effective investment expansion is prioritized, with fixed asset investment projected to grow by approximately 5.5%, including a 7.0% increase in infrastructure investment[23] - The government plans to utilize various investment tools and enhance fiscal-financial cooperation to ensure funding for ongoing projects[23] Capital Market and Industry Focus - Capital market reforms are expected to drive long-term healthy development, with a focus on attracting medium- and long-term funds into the market[24] - Emerging and future industries such as artificial intelligence, 6G communication, and bio-manufacturing are highlighted as key areas for growth and innovation[26] - The report emphasizes the need to address external challenges, with a robust policy toolkit prepared to respond to geopolitical and trade tensions[28] Market Outlook - The "pulse-style slow bull" market is anticipated to continue, supported by domestic economic improvements and periodic external shocks[31] - Historical analysis indicates that the current market environment is conducive to a sustained upward trend, with a gradual recovery in valuations observed since early 2024[39]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the prioritization of domestic demand expansion in the 2025 government work report, highlighting multiple measures to boost consumer confidence and spending capacity, with a target inflation rate of around 2% for consumer prices throughout the year [1][3][10] - The "trade-in" policy is reinforced with a special long-term government bond allocation of 300 billion yuan to support consumer goods, doubling the amount from the previous year [1][3][7] - Various supporting measures aim to enhance consumer willingness and capacity, including employment stabilization, income growth for low- and middle-income groups, and improved labor rights protections [1][3][5] Consumer Sector Opportunities - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from the domestic demand expansion, particularly in food and beverage, with potential gains for raw milk suppliers and dairy leaders, as well as high-demand sectors like outdoor products and trendy toys [2][4] - The report suggests that if demand recovers as anticipated, sectors such as dining, sportswear, and evolving retail chains will exhibit resilience [2][4] - The export chain is under observation due to the reshaping of global trade dynamics, with a focus on the long-term potential of overseas markets and the importance of product value and pricing power [2][4][6] New Consumption Trends - The government work report places significant emphasis on promoting new consumption forms, including sportswear and outdoor products, by enhancing leisure time and sports infrastructure [5][9] - Policies aimed at increasing participation in sports and outdoor activities are expected to drive demand for related products, with local brands gaining competitive ground against international counterparts [5][6] - The report highlights the importance of infrastructure development in facilitating the export of light industrial products, with a focus on quality control and efficiency [6][7] Trade-in Policy Details - The trade-in policy for consumer goods in 2025 is set at 300 billion yuan, with an expanded category of supported products from 8 to 12, including home appliances and digital devices [7][12] - Specific subsidies are introduced for mobile devices priced under 6,000 yuan, with a 15% subsidy on the purchase price, alongside increased support for home renovation products [7][12] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home appliance sector, with expected improvements in domestic sales profitability and continued expansion into emerging markets despite trade risks [7][12]

事件点评 2025 年 3 月 5 日 医药行业 2025 政府工作报告解读： 支持创新药发展，三医协同发展和治理 民银证券研究团队 分析师： 朱倩岚 电 话：852-37288029 Email：vickyzhu@cmbcint.com 2025 年 3 月 5 日，李强总理代表国务院在十四届全国人大二次会 议上作《政府工作报告》。我们对比了 2023-25 年政府工作报告中 涉及医药产业的工作任务（表 1），总结出如下重点： 1）今年的报告首次提到支持创新药发展，"健全药品价格形成机 制，制定创新药目录，支持创新药发展"。预计在药品价格和创新 药目录方面将会出台更多政策举措。市场较为关注的措施例如建 立丙类药品目录、商业健康保险等将拓宽创新药支付渠道，打开创 新药国内市场空间。 2）今年提出"优化药品集采政策，强化质量评估和监管，让人民 群众用药更放心"。"优化药品集采政策"将会把重点从"降价"转 移到"药品质量+降价"上，即并不意味着药品集采放缓。我们认 为未来药品集采提质扩面还将继续。 证券研究报告·行业研究 3）"深化医保支付方式改革"将进一步推进定点医药机构医保的 即时结算，减轻医疗机构和药械企业 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究 事件点评 2025 年 03 月 05 日 民银证券研究团队 苏 聪 电 话：852-37288224 Email：louisesu@cmbcint.com 科技行业 2025 政府工作报告解读：聚焦 新兴与未来产业，关注"人工智能+" ➢ 事件：3 月 5 日召开第十四届全国人大第三次会议，国务院总理 李强代表国务院向大会作政府工作报告。1.回顾 2024 年，我国 在科技创新领域硕果累累："新能源汽车年产量突破 1300 万辆， 集成电路、人工智能、量子科技等领域取得新成果，技术合同成 交额增长 11.2%"。2. 2025 年政府工作任务，李强提出要"因地 制宜发展新质生产力，加快建设现代化产业体系"，具体为：1） 培育壮大新兴产业、未来产业：⑴新兴产业：推动商业航天、低 空经济等新兴产业安全健康发展。⑵未来产业：建立未来产业投 入增长机制，培育生物制造、量子科技、具身智能、6G 等未来 产业。梯度培育创新型企业，促进专精特新中小企业发展壮大， 支持独角兽企业、瞪羚企业发展；2）推动传统产业改造提升： 培育一批既懂行业又懂数字化的服务商。 3）激发数字经济创新 活力：持续推进"人 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Overweight," indicating that the industry stock index is expected to outperform the benchmark over the next 12 months [33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in the medical device sector, with a 47% year-on-year growth in the domestic medical imaging equipment market in January 2025, and a 4.2% increase in the number of CT devices awarded contracts compared to the same period last year [4][30]. - The report notes that the Chinese government is encouraging the development of innovative drugs, with initiatives such as expanding payment channels for innovative drugs and the establishment of a category for innovative drugs in the insurance system [4][24]. - The report indicates that the medical insurance sector is experiencing stable growth, with a 10.4% year-on-year increase in basic medical insurance revenue in January 2025, amounting to 314.3 billion yuan [17][20]. Market Review - In February 2025, the Hang Seng Composite Industry Index rose by 12.8%, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 16.3%, outperforming the market by 3.5 percentage points [3][6]. - The report details that the internet healthcare, biotechnology, and medical device sectors saw significant increases of 36%, 34%, and 24% respectively, while traditional Chinese medicine, medical services, and pharmaceutical distribution experienced declines of -11%, -7%, and -5% [3][6]. - In the A-share market, the pharmaceutical and biological index fell by 3.8% in January but rebounded with a 5.1% increase in February, outperforming the market by 3.2 percentage points [14]. Industry Data Updates - The report provides data showing that the medical insurance income for 2024 is projected to be 28,507 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, while expenditures are expected to reach 23,824 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.1% increase [17]. - The report mentions that the medical device market is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in sales figures for various imaging devices, including a 161% increase in sales revenue for DR devices in January 2025 [30]. Industry News Summary - The National Healthcare Security Administration held a meeting to support the development of innovative drugs, indicating a commitment to enhancing the regulatory environment for pharmaceutical companies [23][24]. - The report discusses the implementation of a compliance guideline to prevent commercial bribery in the pharmaceutical industry, reflecting ongoing regulatory scrutiny [26]. - The report notes that the government is actively working on price governance for medical services, including a comprehensive review of the pricing for central venous catheterization [29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the pharmaceutical industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the benchmark index over the next 12 months [33]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in sub-sectors such as internet healthcare, biotechnology, and medical devices, which saw increases of 36%, 34%, and 24% respectively in February 2025 [3][6]. - The report highlights the government's encouragement of innovative drug development, including discussions on expanding payment channels for innovative drugs and the potential establishment of a category for innovative drugs in the insurance framework [4][24]. - The medical device market is showing signs of recovery, with the domestic medical imaging equipment market growing over 47% year-on-year in January 2025, and an increase in the number of CT devices awarded contracts by 4.2% compared to the previous year [4][30]. Market Review - In February 2025, the Hang Seng Composite Industry Index rose by 12.8%, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 16.3%, outperforming the market by 3.5 percentage points [3][6]. - The A-share market saw the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decline by 3% in January, with the pharmaceutical and biotechnology index dropping by 3.8%, but rebounding in February with a 5.1% increase [14]. - The report notes that all 13 sub-sectors in the pharmaceutical industry experienced declines in January, but several sub-sectors, including hospitals and medical devices, showed significant gains in February [14]. Industry Data Update - The report indicates that the basic medical insurance revenue for January 2025 reached 314.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with expenditures growing by 8.5% [17]. - The commercial health insurance sector is also expanding, with original premium income reaching 977.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth [20]. - Medical device exports, particularly for ECG recorders, ultrasound diagnostic devices, and CT machines, have accelerated in both quantity and value since the second half of 2024 [21]. Industry News Summary - The National Healthcare Security Administration held a meeting to support innovative drug development, engaging with major pharmaceutical companies to discuss strategies for enhancing the market for innovative drugs [23][24]. - A draft opinion on improving the drug pricing mechanism has circulated, proposing measures to support innovative drug development and enhance drug accessibility [28]. - The report mentions ongoing efforts to regulate prices in the healthcare sector, including a comprehensive governance initiative for central venous catheter pricing, which has led to significant price reductions for related medical services [29][30].

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2025 年第 8 期） 2025 年 3 月 3 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 主要大类资产走势： | | | | 2025-02-28 | 周变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国国债收益率10Y | | | 4.24 | -18.0 bp | | | 美国国债收益率2Y | | | 3.99 | -20.0 bp | | | 日本国债收益率10Y | | | 1.40 | | -4.3 bp | | 日本国债收益率2Y | | | 0.83 | | 0.5 bp | | 德国国债收益率10Y | | | 2.38 | -12.0 bp | | | 德国国债收益率2Y | | | 2.00 | -12.0 bp | | | 标 普500指 数 | | | 5954.50 | -0.98 % | | | 纳斯达克指数 | | | 18847.28 | -3.47 % | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | | ...

研究报告·宏观策略研究 专题研究 2025 年 2 月 26 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 特朗普政策的预期差与美国经济的叙事变化 【内容摘要】 特朗普执政满月，政策有哪些预期差？至 2 月 20 日，特朗普上任"满 月"。与竞选阶段相比，改革力度空前且超预期，关税政策思路转变 但力度仍较大，移民政策下手快但受可行性制约不及预期，财政平衡 优先思路下减税政策推进稍缓，外交政策对二战后的国际秩序产生扰 动，环境与能源政策则大致符合预期。 美国经济叙事重回"软着陆"。近期主要美国经济数据趋冷，使市场 对美国经济的看法从前期"特朗普交易"时期的强劲叙事逐步重回到 "软着陆"路径下。具体看，主要表现在 PMI、消费者信心下滑、房 地产数据回落、零售销售减速等方面。经济减速主要源于减税和扩大 投资等支持性政策弱于加征关税和减少财政支出等紧缩性影响，同时 政府大规模部门改革形成的动荡和外交政策则增加了不确定性，对市 场信心形成冲击。此外，近一个季度以来市场在"特朗普交易"下重 回高利率也限制了房地产等行业的扩张。 如何看待后续的 ...