Macroeconomic Insights - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at approximately 5.0%, consistent with the previous year, emphasizing the need for consumption to play a significant role in achieving this target[8] - The CPI target has been adjusted down to around 2.0%, indicating a shift towards stabilizing prices and addressing inflation and demand gaps as key economic tasks for 2025[13] - The broad deficit scale has increased, with a broad deficit rate of 8.4%, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at five key areas[14] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with expectations for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction likely in mid-2025[16] Consumption and Investment - The importance of boosting consumption has been elevated, with expectations for retail sales growth to exceed 6.0% in 2025, driven by diverse consumption policies and support for new consumption formats[22] - Effective investment expansion is prioritized, with fixed asset investment projected to grow by approximately 5.5%, including a 7.0% increase in infrastructure investment[23] - The government plans to utilize various investment tools and enhance fiscal-financial cooperation to ensure funding for ongoing projects[23] Capital Market and Industry Focus - Capital market reforms are expected to drive long-term healthy development, with a focus on attracting medium- and long-term funds into the market[24] - Emerging and future industries such as artificial intelligence, 6G communication, and bio-manufacturing are highlighted as key areas for growth and innovation[26] - The report emphasizes the need to address external challenges, with a robust policy toolkit prepared to respond to geopolitical and trade tensions[28] Market Outlook - The "pulse-style slow bull" market is anticipated to continue, supported by domestic economic improvements and periodic external shocks[31] - Historical analysis indicates that the current market environment is conducive to a sustained upward trend, with a gradual recovery in valuations observed since early 2024[39]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the prioritization of domestic demand expansion in the 2025 government work report, highlighting multiple measures to boost consumer confidence and spending capacity, with a target inflation rate of around 2% for consumer prices throughout the year [1][3][10] - The "trade-in" policy is reinforced with a special long-term government bond allocation of 300 billion yuan to support consumer goods, doubling the amount from the previous year [1][3][7] - Various supporting measures aim to enhance consumer willingness and capacity, including employment stabilization, income growth for low- and middle-income groups, and improved labor rights protections [1][3][5] Consumer Sector Opportunities - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from the domestic demand expansion, particularly in food and beverage, with potential gains for raw milk suppliers and dairy leaders, as well as high-demand sectors like outdoor products and trendy toys [2][4] - The report suggests that if demand recovers as anticipated, sectors such as dining, sportswear, and evolving retail chains will exhibit resilience [2][4] - The export chain is under observation due to the reshaping of global trade dynamics, with a focus on the long-term potential of overseas markets and the importance of product value and pricing power [2][4][6] New Consumption Trends - The government work report places significant emphasis on promoting new consumption forms, including sportswear and outdoor products, by enhancing leisure time and sports infrastructure [5][9] - Policies aimed at increasing participation in sports and outdoor activities are expected to drive demand for related products, with local brands gaining competitive ground against international counterparts [5][6] - The report highlights the importance of infrastructure development in facilitating the export of light industrial products, with a focus on quality control and efficiency [6][7] Trade-in Policy Details - The trade-in policy for consumer goods in 2025 is set at 300 billion yuan, with an expanded category of supported products from 8 to 12, including home appliances and digital devices [7][12] - Specific subsidies are introduced for mobile devices priced under 6,000 yuan, with a 15% subsidy on the purchase price, alongside increased support for home renovation products [7][12] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home appliance sector, with expected improvements in domestic sales profitability and continued expansion into emerging markets despite trade risks [7][12]

事件点评 2025 年 3 月 5 日 医药行业 2025 政府工作报告解读： 支持创新药发展，三医协同发展和治理 民银证券研究团队 分析师： 朱倩岚 电 话：852-37288029 Email：vickyzhu@cmbcint.com 2025 年 3 月 5 日，李强总理代表国务院在十四届全国人大二次会 议上作《政府工作报告》。我们对比了 2023-25 年政府工作报告中 涉及医药产业的工作任务（表 1），总结出如下重点： 1）今年的报告首次提到支持创新药发展，"健全药品价格形成机 制，制定创新药目录，支持创新药发展"。预计在药品价格和创新 药目录方面将会出台更多政策举措。市场较为关注的措施例如建 立丙类药品目录、商业健康保险等将拓宽创新药支付渠道，打开创 新药国内市场空间。 2）今年提出"优化药品集采政策，强化质量评估和监管，让人民 群众用药更放心"。"优化药品集采政策"将会把重点从"降价"转 移到"药品质量+降价"上，即并不意味着药品集采放缓。我们认 为未来药品集采提质扩面还将继续。 证券研究报告·行业研究 3）"深化医保支付方式改革"将进一步推进定点医药机构医保的 即时结算，减轻医疗机构和药械企业 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究 事件点评 2025 年 03 月 05 日 民银证券研究团队 苏 聪 电 话：852-37288224 Email：louisesu@cmbcint.com 科技行业 2025 政府工作报告解读：聚焦 新兴与未来产业，关注"人工智能+" ➢ 事件：3 月 5 日召开第十四届全国人大第三次会议，国务院总理 李强代表国务院向大会作政府工作报告。1.回顾 2024 年，我国 在科技创新领域硕果累累："新能源汽车年产量突破 1300 万辆， 集成电路、人工智能、量子科技等领域取得新成果，技术合同成 交额增长 11.2%"。2. 2025 年政府工作任务，李强提出要"因地 制宜发展新质生产力，加快建设现代化产业体系"，具体为：1） 培育壮大新兴产业、未来产业：⑴新兴产业：推动商业航天、低 空经济等新兴产业安全健康发展。⑵未来产业：建立未来产业投 入增长机制，培育生物制造、量子科技、具身智能、6G 等未来 产业。梯度培育创新型企业，促进专精特新中小企业发展壮大， 支持独角兽企业、瞪羚企业发展；2）推动传统产业改造提升： 培育一批既懂行业又懂数字化的服务商。 3）激发数字经济创新 活力：持续推进"人 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Overweight," indicating that the industry stock index is expected to outperform the benchmark over the next 12 months [33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in the medical device sector, with a 47% year-on-year growth in the domestic medical imaging equipment market in January 2025, and a 4.2% increase in the number of CT devices awarded contracts compared to the same period last year [4][30]. - The report notes that the Chinese government is encouraging the development of innovative drugs, with initiatives such as expanding payment channels for innovative drugs and the establishment of a category for innovative drugs in the insurance system [4][24]. - The report indicates that the medical insurance sector is experiencing stable growth, with a 10.4% year-on-year increase in basic medical insurance revenue in January 2025, amounting to 314.3 billion yuan [17][20]. Market Review - In February 2025, the Hang Seng Composite Industry Index rose by 12.8%, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 16.3%, outperforming the market by 3.5 percentage points [3][6]. - The report details that the internet healthcare, biotechnology, and medical device sectors saw significant increases of 36%, 34%, and 24% respectively, while traditional Chinese medicine, medical services, and pharmaceutical distribution experienced declines of -11%, -7%, and -5% [3][6]. - In the A-share market, the pharmaceutical and biological index fell by 3.8% in January but rebounded with a 5.1% increase in February, outperforming the market by 3.2 percentage points [14]. Industry Data Updates - The report provides data showing that the medical insurance income for 2024 is projected to be 28,507 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, while expenditures are expected to reach 23,824 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.1% increase [17]. - The report mentions that the medical device market is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in sales figures for various imaging devices, including a 161% increase in sales revenue for DR devices in January 2025 [30]. Industry News Summary - The National Healthcare Security Administration held a meeting to support the development of innovative drugs, indicating a commitment to enhancing the regulatory environment for pharmaceutical companies [23][24]. - The report discusses the implementation of a compliance guideline to prevent commercial bribery in the pharmaceutical industry, reflecting ongoing regulatory scrutiny [26]. - The report notes that the government is actively working on price governance for medical services, including a comprehensive review of the pricing for central venous catheterization [29].

证券研究报告·医药研究 医药行业月报（2025 年第 1 期） 民银证券研究团队 分析师：朱倩岚 电 话：+852 3728 8029 Email：vickyzhu@cmbcint.com 2025 年 3 月 3 日 医疗设备行业回暖迹象明显 报告摘要 行情回顾：2025 年 2 月恒生综合行业指数上涨 12.8%，恒生医疗保健 指数上涨 16.3%，跑赢市场 3.5 个百分点。截止 2 月 28 日医药行业市 值占比 4.6%。子板块中互联网医疗、生物科技和医疗器械上涨较多， 分别为 36%、34%和 24%，下跌子板块有中药（-11%）、医疗服务（- 7%）和医药流通（-5%）。A 股方面，1 月沪深 300 指数下跌 3%，医 药生物（申万）指数下跌 3.8%，跑输市场 0.8 个百分点。13 个医药子 行业（申万）均下跌；2 月沪深 300 指数上涨 1.9%，医药生物（申万） 指数上涨 5.1%，跑赢市场 3.2 个百分点。13 个医药子行业（申万） 中，涨幅较大的子板块有医院（15.1%）、医药研发（11.7%）和医疗设 备（10.5%），血液制品和医疗耗材分别下跌 3.5%和 0.1%。 本月 ...

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2025 年第 8 期） 2025 年 3 月 3 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 主要大类资产走势： | | | | 2025-02-28 | 周变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国国债收益率10Y | | | 4.24 | -18.0 bp | | | 美国国债收益率2Y | | | 3.99 | -20.0 bp | | | 日本国债收益率10Y | | | 1.40 | | -4.3 bp | | 日本国债收益率2Y | | | 0.83 | | 0.5 bp | | 德国国债收益率10Y | | | 2.38 | -12.0 bp | | | 德国国债收益率2Y | | | 2.00 | -12.0 bp | | | 标 普500指 数 | | | 5954.50 | -0.98 % | | | 纳斯达克指数 | | | 18847.28 | -3.47 % | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | | ...

研究报告·宏观策略研究 专题研究 2025 年 2 月 26 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 特朗普政策的预期差与美国经济的叙事变化 【内容摘要】 特朗普执政满月，政策有哪些预期差？至 2 月 20 日，特朗普上任"满 月"。与竞选阶段相比，改革力度空前且超预期，关税政策思路转变 但力度仍较大，移民政策下手快但受可行性制约不及预期，财政平衡 优先思路下减税政策推进稍缓，外交政策对二战后的国际秩序产生扰 动，环境与能源政策则大致符合预期。 美国经济叙事重回"软着陆"。近期主要美国经济数据趋冷，使市场 对美国经济的看法从前期"特朗普交易"时期的强劲叙事逐步重回到 "软着陆"路径下。具体看，主要表现在 PMI、消费者信心下滑、房 地产数据回落、零售销售减速等方面。经济减速主要源于减税和扩大 投资等支持性政策弱于加征关税和减少财政支出等紧缩性影响，同时 政府大规模部门改革形成的动荡和外交政策则增加了不确定性，对市 场信心形成冲击。此外，近一个季度以来市场在"特朗普交易"下重 回高利率也限制了房地产等行业的扩张。 如何看待后续的 ...

研究报告·宏观策略研究 专题研究 2025 年 2 月 26 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 特朗普政策的预期差与美国经济的叙事变化 【内容摘要】 如何看待后续的大类资产走势？美债收益率见顶回落。利率市场隐含 美联储年内重回降息两次，当前对"软着陆"预期已计价相对充分， 同时考虑到通胀预期并未大幅下行，预计后续利率下行空间有限。美 股在高位震荡并小幅下跌，科技股波动加大。除了对美国经济前景由 "再通胀"重回"软着陆"因素外，美股自身高估值以及对中国科技 股的转向也是一个重要因素。后续在通胀预期保持但经济减速预期 下，美股预计仍将面临压力。汇率方面，随着美债收益率回落，美欧、 美日利差收窄也在推动美元指数下行，后续仍有小幅下行空间。近期 黄金价格创新高，实际利率趋于下行，同时地缘关系不确定性仍高， 或联合推动黄金价格易上难下。原油方面，在特朗普支持传统能源开 采的一系列政策下，以及在俄乌有望停战和 OPEC+增产预期下，预 计未来整体趋势易下难上。 | 1. 特朗普执政满月，政策有哪些预期差？ | 1 | | --- | ...

Group 1: Major Asset Trends - The 10Y US Treasury yield decreased by 5.0 basis points to 4.42%[3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.66% to 6013.13[3] - The price of gold reached a new high at $2934.15, increasing by 0.44%[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - US new housing starts fell by 9.8% month-on-month to an annualized rate of 1.366 million units[21] - The US PMI for services dropped to 49.7, indicating contraction[26] - The Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised down to 64.7, from a previous 71.7[26] Group 3: Policy Changes and Impacts - Trump's administration has saved over $55 billion through government efficiency measures, with 84,500 federal employees affected[11] - The US is considering a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, while maintaining a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports[12] - The expectation for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has increased due to economic concerns[15]