研究报告·宏观策略研究 专题研究 2025 年 2 月 26 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 特朗普政策的预期差与美国经济的叙事变化 【内容摘要】 如何看待后续的大类资产走势？美债收益率见顶回落。利率市场隐含 美联储年内重回降息两次，当前对"软着陆"预期已计价相对充分， 同时考虑到通胀预期并未大幅下行，预计后续利率下行空间有限。美 股在高位震荡并小幅下跌，科技股波动加大。除了对美国经济前景由 "再通胀"重回"软着陆"因素外，美股自身高估值以及对中国科技 股的转向也是一个重要因素。后续在通胀预期保持但经济减速预期 下，美股预计仍将面临压力。汇率方面，随着美债收益率回落，美欧、 美日利差收窄也在推动美元指数下行，后续仍有小幅下行空间。近期 黄金价格创新高，实际利率趋于下行，同时地缘关系不确定性仍高， 或联合推动黄金价格易上难下。原油方面，在特朗普支持传统能源开 采的一系列政策下，以及在俄乌有望停战和 OPEC+增产预期下，预 计未来整体趋势易下难上。 | 1. 特朗普执政满月，政策有哪些预期差？ | 1 | | --- | ...

Group 1: Major Asset Trends - The 10Y US Treasury yield decreased by 5.0 basis points to 4.42%[3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.66% to 6013.13[3] - The price of gold reached a new high at $2934.15, increasing by 0.44%[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - US new housing starts fell by 9.8% month-on-month to an annualized rate of 1.366 million units[21] - The US PMI for services dropped to 49.7, indicating contraction[26] - The Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised down to 64.7, from a previous 71.7[26] Group 3: Policy Changes and Impacts - Trump's administration has saved over $55 billion through government efficiency measures, with 84,500 federal employees affected[11] - The US is considering a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, while maintaining a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports[12] - The expectation for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has increased due to economic concerns[15]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - January CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.9% and marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month[9] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.1%[19] - January PPI also surpassed expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% compared to the forecast of 3.2%[21] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite rising inflation concerns, the US dollar index fell by over 1% in two consecutive days[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 15 basis points over the same period[9] - Gold prices temporarily retreated from historical highs, dropping below $2900 per ounce[9] Group 3: Trade and Policy Concerns - Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, with potential inflation impacts estimated at 0.1-0.2 percentage points[11] - The overall impact of all tariffs could exceed 0.5 percentage points on US inflation, with extreme scenarios possibly exceeding 1 percentage point[12] - Market expectations for the first interest rate cut have shifted to July, with a 30% probability of two cuts this year[12] Group 4: Global Economic Performance - UK GDP for Q4 rose by 1.4% year-on-year, better than the expected 1.1%[27] - Eurozone GDP was slightly revised up to a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[27] - Japan's current account surplus decreased significantly, indicating economic pressures[31]

Key Points - The report highlights increasing inflation concerns in the US, with January CPI rising 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.9% [4][19] - The US PPI also surpassed market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures, with a January PPI increase of 3.5% year-on-year [21] - The report notes that recent US economic data, including a decline in retail sales and industrial production, suggests a mixed economic outlook [24] - Trump's proposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, and potentially automobiles are expected to further elevate inflation risks, with estimates suggesting a potential increase of 0.5% to over 1% in inflation [11][12] - European economic indicators show a slight recovery, with the UK GDP growing 1.4% year-on-year in Q4, while the Eurozone GDP was slightly revised up to 0.1% [27][28] - Japan's economic outlook is under pressure, with a decrease in the current account surplus, indicating potential challenges ahead [31][34]

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2025 年第 5 期） 2025 年 2 月 10 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 主要大类资产走势： | | | | | 2025-02-07 | 周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国国债收益率10Y | | | | 4.49 | -9.0 bp | | 美国国债收益率2Y | | | | 4.29 | 7.0 bp | | 日本国债收益率10Y | | | | 1.27 | 2.0 bp | | 日本国债收益率2Y | | | | 0.76 | 3.3 bp | | 德国国债收益率10Y | | | | 2.36 | -12.0 bp | | 德国国债收益率2Y | | | | 2.05 | -8.0 bp | | 标 普500指 数 | | | | 6025.99 | -0.24 % | | 纳斯达克指数 | | | | 19523.40 | -0.53 % | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | | | 44 ...

证券研究报告·消费研究 行业研究 春节消费解读——文旅景气超预期，机酒价格偏弱 民银证券研究团队 2025 年春节文旅消费超预期，客流量增基础上，人均支出显著修复。 电影市场量价齐升，耐用品以旧换新、跨境游需求强劲： （3）国际航班量修复至 19 年同期 9 成，跨境游、耐用品以旧换新的 需求强劲。2025 春运期间国际航线累计执飞航班量日均同比+26.3%， 恢复至 19 年同期 89%；日本、泰国、韩国为前三目的地，春节期间 出境航班分别恢复至 19 年同期的 114%/ 72%/ 89%。以安徽省为例， 25 年春节通讯器材、汽车、家电销售额分别增长 86%、25%、19.6%。 机酒价格、海南离岛免税销售偏弱，消费者"悦己"的同时精打细算： 2025 年春节期间机票与酒店均价下滑，海南免税购物人次显著下滑， 机酒作为单价相对高的消费，与电影文娱和出游文旅服务等开支对 比，体现出消费者在悦己购买情绪价值同时，在支出大额、差异化低 的项目偏向精打细算。 （1）据航班管家，2025 年春节期间(1.28-2.04)民航经济舱平均票价达 959 元，较 2024 年春节同比下滑 16.6%，较 2019 年春 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Trends - The 10Y US Treasury yield is at 4.63%, with a weekly change of +2.0 basis points[3] - The S&P 500 index reached 6101.24, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.74%[3] - The price of London spot gold is at $2776.80, up 2.27% for the week[3] Group 2: Economic Overview - The US dollar index decreased by 1.74%, dropping from approximately 109.4 to 107.5[9] - Offshore RMB appreciated by 1.33% during the week due to market reactions to US-China tariff policies[10] - Japan's CPI rose by 3.6% year-on-year in December, exceeding expectations of 3.4%[28] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January was revised down to 71.1 from an initial 73.2[19] - The US manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, surpassing expectations of 49.7[21] - The Eurozone consumer confidence index for January was reported at -14.2, slightly improving from -14.5[24] Group 4: Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 17-year high, responding to rising inflation pressures[12] - The European Central Bank officials have been vocal about potential rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach[6] - The US Federal Reserve's independence may be challenged as President Trump calls for rate cuts[12]

Group 1: Trading Models and Their Impact on Gold - The research identifies eight trading models that significantly influence gold price fluctuations, particularly during the period from 1989 to 2024[2] - Loose/tight trading reflects gold's financial attributes, with loose trading correlating to price increases and tight trading to decreases[2] - Inflation/cooling trading represents gold's commodity attributes, with inflation driving prices up and cooling leading to declines[2] Group 2: Historical Phases of Gold Pricing - The historical performance of gold can be divided into three phases: 1989-2004 (inflation-driven commodity phase), 2005-2014 (full-attribute pricing phase), and 2015-2024 (commodity attribute decline phase)[3] - In the first phase, inflation trading had a significant impact, with an average daily increase of 0.118% and a cumulative increase of 54.9%[20] - The second phase saw inflation trading average daily increases of 0.415% and cumulative increases of 94.4%, while cooling trading had a lesser impact[25] Group 3: Recent Trends and Future Outlook - From 2015 to 2024, gold's commodity attributes weakened, with inflation and growth logic showing insignificant effects on price fluctuations[29] - The financial attributes of gold became more pronounced, with loose trading leading to an average daily increase of 0.375% and a cumulative increase of 96.6%[28] - Future gold pricing is expected to be influenced by financial attributes, geopolitical uncertainties, and new explanatory variables such as "de-dollarization" trends[38]

Investment Rating - The report initiates a "Buy" rating for four domestic sports footwear and apparel brands, with a preference for Anta Sports (2020.HK) as the top pick [16][17]. Core Insights - The Chinese sports footwear and apparel industry is in a prosperous phase, characterized by a large market capacity and high concentration. The market is expected to maintain a mid-single-digit compound growth rate over the next three years, driven by increased sports participation and rising consumer demand for comfort and functionality [7][20]. - The industry is witnessing a shift in market dynamics, with high demand for outdoor products, the rise of specialized subcategories, and a resurgence of retro styles. The penetration rate of sports footwear and apparel is on the rise, indicating significant growth potential [7][20]. - Domestic brands have achieved technological parity with international brands, leading to a competitive landscape where both sides are now contending with each other. Local brands are focusing on high-end functional products and expanding into lower-tier markets [9][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Analysis - The Chinese sports footwear and apparel market is projected to reach over 380 billion RMB in retail sales by 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% from 2019 to 2024, outpacing the retail sector and GDP growth rates [7][20]. - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top 10 brands holding approximately 83% of the market share in 2024, slightly down from previous years due to the emergence of niche brands [33][40]. - The report highlights the importance of learning from the U.S. market, where the sports footwear industry has historically outpaced GDP growth, indicating a robust consumer demand [8][41]. Company Analysis - Anta Sports (2020.HK) is recognized for its multi-brand strategy that effectively addresses consumer segmentation and market fluctuations. The company is expected to benefit from its outdoor brand growth and successful international expansion [16][17]. - Li Ning (2331.HK) is noted for its healthy brand operations, although it may require time to adjust to market conditions. The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency and expanding into emerging markets [16][17]. - 361 Degrees (1361.HK) is positioned as a leading domestic brand with a focus on professional functionality and cost-effectiveness, aiming to capture market share in the mass market [16][18]. - Xtep International (1368.HK) is leveraging its expertise in running to establish a differentiated market position, particularly in marathon events, which is expected to enhance its brand visibility and market penetration [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer sector, particularly in durable goods such as home appliances and communication devices, driven by government subsidies and replacement cycles [1][3]. Core Insights - December retail sales exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 3.49%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 4.2% [1][3]. - Durable goods, particularly home appliances, showed significant growth, with home appliance sales increasing by 39.3% year-on-year in December. Communication devices also saw a 14% increase [1][3][9]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer spending, with essential goods like food and beverages showing mixed results, while discretionary spending remains weak [1][10]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - December retail sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with total retail sales for the year increasing by 3.5%. The growth in retail sales was primarily driven by durable goods [1][3][21]. - The year 2024 is projected to see a 5.3% increase in per capita disposable income and spending, with service consumption rising by 7.4% [1][3]. Durable Goods - Home appliances and communication devices benefited from government subsidies and replacement cycles, with home appliance sales up 39.3% in December. The automotive sector saw a slowdown, with a 0.5% increase in December [1][9][15]. - The report notes that the government subsidy program has expanded, allowing for more categories of appliances to qualify for rebates, which is expected to further boost sales [10][15]. Essential Goods - Essential goods showed varied performance, with food and beverage sales increasing by 9.9%, while beverage sales declined by 8.5%. Tobacco sales increased by 10.4% [10][12]. - The report indicates that the early timing of the Spring Festival in 2025 is expected to accelerate demand for essential goods like tobacco and alcohol [10][12]. Discretionary Goods - Discretionary spending remains weak, with clothing and cosmetics showing declines of 0.3% and 0.8% respectively in December. However, sports and entertainment sectors maintained positive growth [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the warm winter in 2024 has negatively impacted demand for clothing, while the sports and entertainment sectors continue to thrive [11][12]. Online Retail and Employment - Online retail growth slowed slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% in December. The logistics sector also saw significant growth, with express delivery volumes increasing by 21% [21][23]. - Employment indicators remained stable, with the service sector's business activity index rising to 52.0, indicating a healthy economic environment [23].