研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2025 年第 8 期） 2025 年 3 月 3 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 主要大类资产走势： | | | | 2025-02-28 | 周变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国国债收益率10Y | | | 4.24 | -18.0 bp | | | 美国国债收益率2Y | | | 3.99 | -20.0 bp | | | 日本国债收益率10Y | | | 1.40 | | -4.3 bp | | 日本国债收益率2Y | | | 0.83 | | 0.5 bp | | 德国国债收益率10Y | | | 2.38 | -12.0 bp | | | 德国国债收益率2Y | | | 2.00 | -12.0 bp | | | 标 普500指 数 | | | 5954.50 | -0.98 % | | | 纳斯达克指数 | | | 18847.28 | -3.47 % | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | | ...

研究报告·宏观策略研究 专题研究 2025 年 2 月 26 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 特朗普政策的预期差与美国经济的叙事变化 【内容摘要】 特朗普执政满月，政策有哪些预期差？至 2 月 20 日，特朗普上任"满 月"。与竞选阶段相比，改革力度空前且超预期，关税政策思路转变 但力度仍较大，移民政策下手快但受可行性制约不及预期，财政平衡 优先思路下减税政策推进稍缓，外交政策对二战后的国际秩序产生扰 动，环境与能源政策则大致符合预期。 美国经济叙事重回"软着陆"。近期主要美国经济数据趋冷，使市场 对美国经济的看法从前期"特朗普交易"时期的强劲叙事逐步重回到 "软着陆"路径下。具体看，主要表现在 PMI、消费者信心下滑、房 地产数据回落、零售销售减速等方面。经济减速主要源于减税和扩大 投资等支持性政策弱于加征关税和减少财政支出等紧缩性影响，同时 政府大规模部门改革形成的动荡和外交政策则增加了不确定性，对市 场信心形成冲击。此外，近一个季度以来市场在"特朗普交易"下重 回高利率也限制了房地产等行业的扩张。 如何看待后续的 ...

研究报告·宏观策略研究 专题研究 2025 年 2 月 26 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 特朗普政策的预期差与美国经济的叙事变化 【内容摘要】 如何看待后续的大类资产走势？美债收益率见顶回落。利率市场隐含 美联储年内重回降息两次，当前对"软着陆"预期已计价相对充分， 同时考虑到通胀预期并未大幅下行，预计后续利率下行空间有限。美 股在高位震荡并小幅下跌，科技股波动加大。除了对美国经济前景由 "再通胀"重回"软着陆"因素外，美股自身高估值以及对中国科技 股的转向也是一个重要因素。后续在通胀预期保持但经济减速预期 下，美股预计仍将面临压力。汇率方面，随着美债收益率回落，美欧、 美日利差收窄也在推动美元指数下行，后续仍有小幅下行空间。近期 黄金价格创新高，实际利率趋于下行，同时地缘关系不确定性仍高， 或联合推动黄金价格易上难下。原油方面，在特朗普支持传统能源开 采的一系列政策下，以及在俄乌有望停战和 OPEC+增产预期下，预 计未来整体趋势易下难上。 | 1. 特朗普执政满月，政策有哪些预期差？ | 1 | | --- | ...

Group 1: Major Asset Trends - The 10Y US Treasury yield decreased by 5.0 basis points to 4.42%[3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.66% to 6013.13[3] - The price of gold reached a new high at $2934.15, increasing by 0.44%[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - US new housing starts fell by 9.8% month-on-month to an annualized rate of 1.366 million units[21] - The US PMI for services dropped to 49.7, indicating contraction[26] - The Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised down to 64.7, from a previous 71.7[26] Group 3: Policy Changes and Impacts - Trump's administration has saved over $55 billion through government efficiency measures, with 84,500 federal employees affected[11] - The US is considering a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, while maintaining a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports[12] - The expectation for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has increased due to economic concerns[15]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - January CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.9% and marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month[9] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.1%[19] - January PPI also surpassed expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% compared to the forecast of 3.2%[21] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite rising inflation concerns, the US dollar index fell by over 1% in two consecutive days[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 15 basis points over the same period[9] - Gold prices temporarily retreated from historical highs, dropping below $2900 per ounce[9] Group 3: Trade and Policy Concerns - Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, with potential inflation impacts estimated at 0.1-0.2 percentage points[11] - The overall impact of all tariffs could exceed 0.5 percentage points on US inflation, with extreme scenarios possibly exceeding 1 percentage point[12] - Market expectations for the first interest rate cut have shifted to July, with a 30% probability of two cuts this year[12] Group 4: Global Economic Performance - UK GDP for Q4 rose by 1.4% year-on-year, better than the expected 1.1%[27] - Eurozone GDP was slightly revised up to a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[27] - Japan's current account surplus decreased significantly, indicating economic pressures[31]

Key Points - The report highlights increasing inflation concerns in the US, with January CPI rising 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.9% [4][19] - The US PPI also surpassed market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures, with a January PPI increase of 3.5% year-on-year [21] - The report notes that recent US economic data, including a decline in retail sales and industrial production, suggests a mixed economic outlook [24] - Trump's proposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, and potentially automobiles are expected to further elevate inflation risks, with estimates suggesting a potential increase of 0.5% to over 1% in inflation [11][12] - European economic indicators show a slight recovery, with the UK GDP growing 1.4% year-on-year in Q4, while the Eurozone GDP was slightly revised up to 0.1% [27][28] - Japan's economic outlook is under pressure, with a decrease in the current account surplus, indicating potential challenges ahead [31][34]

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2025 年第 5 期） 2025 年 2 月 10 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 主要大类资产走势： | | | | | 2025-02-07 | 周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国国债收益率10Y | | | | 4.49 | -9.0 bp | | 美国国债收益率2Y | | | | 4.29 | 7.0 bp | | 日本国债收益率10Y | | | | 1.27 | 2.0 bp | | 日本国债收益率2Y | | | | 0.76 | 3.3 bp | | 德国国债收益率10Y | | | | 2.36 | -12.0 bp | | 德国国债收益率2Y | | | | 2.05 | -8.0 bp | | 标 普500指 数 | | | | 6025.99 | -0.24 % | | 纳斯达克指数 | | | | 19523.40 | -0.53 % | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | | | 44 ...

证券研究报告·消费研究 行业研究 春节消费解读——文旅景气超预期，机酒价格偏弱 民银证券研究团队 2025 年春节文旅消费超预期，客流量增基础上，人均支出显著修复。 电影市场量价齐升，耐用品以旧换新、跨境游需求强劲： （3）国际航班量修复至 19 年同期 9 成，跨境游、耐用品以旧换新的 需求强劲。2025 春运期间国际航线累计执飞航班量日均同比+26.3%， 恢复至 19 年同期 89%；日本、泰国、韩国为前三目的地，春节期间 出境航班分别恢复至 19 年同期的 114%/ 72%/ 89%。以安徽省为例， 25 年春节通讯器材、汽车、家电销售额分别增长 86%、25%、19.6%。 机酒价格、海南离岛免税销售偏弱，消费者"悦己"的同时精打细算： 2025 年春节期间机票与酒店均价下滑，海南免税购物人次显著下滑， 机酒作为单价相对高的消费，与电影文娱和出游文旅服务等开支对 比，体现出消费者在悦己购买情绪价值同时，在支出大额、差异化低 的项目偏向精打细算。 （1）据航班管家，2025 年春节期间(1.28-2.04)民航经济舱平均票价达 959 元，较 2024 年春节同比下滑 16.6%，较 2019 年春 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Trends - The 10Y US Treasury yield is at 4.63%, with a weekly change of +2.0 basis points[3] - The S&P 500 index reached 6101.24, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.74%[3] - The price of London spot gold is at $2776.80, up 2.27% for the week[3] Group 2: Economic Overview - The US dollar index decreased by 1.74%, dropping from approximately 109.4 to 107.5[9] - Offshore RMB appreciated by 1.33% during the week due to market reactions to US-China tariff policies[10] - Japan's CPI rose by 3.6% year-on-year in December, exceeding expectations of 3.4%[28] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January was revised down to 71.1 from an initial 73.2[19] - The US manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, surpassing expectations of 49.7[21] - The Eurozone consumer confidence index for January was reported at -14.2, slightly improving from -14.5[24] Group 4: Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 17-year high, responding to rising inflation pressures[12] - The European Central Bank officials have been vocal about potential rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach[6] - The US Federal Reserve's independence may be challenged as President Trump calls for rate cuts[12]

Group 1: Trading Models and Their Impact on Gold - The research identifies eight trading models that significantly influence gold price fluctuations, particularly during the period from 1989 to 2024[2] - Loose/tight trading reflects gold's financial attributes, with loose trading correlating to price increases and tight trading to decreases[2] - Inflation/cooling trading represents gold's commodity attributes, with inflation driving prices up and cooling leading to declines[2] Group 2: Historical Phases of Gold Pricing - The historical performance of gold can be divided into three phases: 1989-2004 (inflation-driven commodity phase), 2005-2014 (full-attribute pricing phase), and 2015-2024 (commodity attribute decline phase)[3] - In the first phase, inflation trading had a significant impact, with an average daily increase of 0.118% and a cumulative increase of 54.9%[20] - The second phase saw inflation trading average daily increases of 0.415% and cumulative increases of 94.4%, while cooling trading had a lesser impact[25] Group 3: Recent Trends and Future Outlook - From 2015 to 2024, gold's commodity attributes weakened, with inflation and growth logic showing insignificant effects on price fluctuations[29] - The financial attributes of gold became more pronounced, with loose trading leading to an average daily increase of 0.375% and a cumulative increase of 96.6%[28] - Future gold pricing is expected to be influenced by financial attributes, geopolitical uncertainties, and new explanatory variables such as "de-dollarization" trends[38]