证券研究报告·行业研究 事件点评 2024 年 11 月 6 日 特朗普胜选影响——科技/消费/医药/地产行业联合解读 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" based on the expectation that the retail sector will outperform the benchmark index over the next 12 months [42]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Xiangjiang Department Store has successfully adopted and adapted the "Fat Donglai" model, demonstrating its replicability across regions. The store has achieved significant results since its transformation began in 2012, maintaining steady growth in subsequent years [33][36]. - Key factors contributing to the success of Xiangjiang Department Store include substantial adjustments in product structure, enhancement of supply chain capabilities, and a focus on fresh produce, alongside improved employee wages and strict management standards [33][36]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiangjiang Department Store is a leading regional supermarket in Hengyang, Hunan, with 25 chain stores, including three large shopping centers. The company has a workforce of over 4,000 employees and has been part of Wangyi Group since its establishment in 1995 [3][19]. Transformation Journey - The transformation journey of Xiangjiang Department Store began in 2012 with a comprehensive study of the Fat Donglai model, leading to a significant upgrade in products and services by 2014. The store faced challenges such as high employee turnover and the introduction of uncertain new products during this period [19][33]. Key Strategies - The report outlines three major strategies implemented during the transformation: 1. Product differentiation and supply chain optimization, achieving a 40% product differentiation from local competitors [14][21]. 2. Enhancing customer interaction with differentiated products and providing convenient solutions for fast-paced lifestyles [14][21]. 3. Continuous improvement of service standards and store environments [14][21]. Performance Metrics - In 2014, Xiangjiang Department Store reported sales of 1.7 billion yuan across 13 stores, with larger stores generating annual sales between 250 million to 300 million yuan. By 2018, the number of stores increased to 20, with annual sales exceeding 2 billion yuan [17][19]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that as online retail penetration reaches its limits, domestic supermarkets are likely to develop unique local models, leveraging advanced supply chains and labor resources while balancing product differentiation and service [33][36]. Potential investment targets include Yonghui Supermarket, Gaoxin Retail, and Miniso [33].

证券研究报告·医药研究 医药行业周报（2024 年第 12 期） 2024 年 11 月 18 日 海外形势多变，可关注医药内需 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, with a recommendation to "overweight" the sector based on expected performance relative to the benchmark index [28]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 2.8%, outperforming the market by 1 percentage point during the week of November 1-8, 2024 [8]. - The report highlights a significant scale of local hidden debt replacement amounting to 12 trillion yuan, which may benefit hospitals and the ICL industry [14]. - The report notes that all 13 sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry experienced growth, with hospitals leading at a 13.1% increase [14]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Hang Seng Composite Index increased by 1.8%, while the pharmaceutical industry accounted for 4.5% of the market capitalization as of November 8, 2024 [8]. - The highest weekly gains among sub-sectors were seen in CRO at 9%, followed by medical services and internet healthcare at 6% each [8][10]. Important News - The National Medical Insurance Administration's data analysis revealed issues related to the traceability of certain products, indicating potential illegal activities in the distribution chain [15][16]. - The report discusses the expansion of public hospital staffing in Chongqing, which aims to improve service delivery and reduce costs associated with medical supplies [19]. Sub-sector Performance - The report provides insights into the valuation of various sub-sectors, indicating that most are trading at a PEG ratio of 0.5-1, with medical services and CRO being below 0.5 [10]. - The pharmaceutical sub-sector is projected to have a PEG ratio exceeding 2 in 2025, indicating potential growth opportunities [10].

Group 1: Economic and Policy Changes - Trump's election victory is expected to lead to significant shifts in U.S. policy and economic direction, with a focus on tightening immigration enforcement and prioritizing tariff increases over tax cuts[9] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but future rate cut paths remain uncertain, with a more gradual approach anticipated in 2025[14] - The anticipated timeline for tax cuts is approximately one year, as they require legal processes, while tariff increases could be implemented more swiftly[10] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Trump's election, the U.S. dollar and stock markets surged, while gold and oil prices experienced significant volatility[9] - Key economic indicators show a decline in U.S. manufacturing orders, with September durable goods orders down 0.7% month-over-month and down 2.1% year-over-year[23] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 73.0, indicating improved consumer confidence, with one-year inflation expectations at 2.6%[38] Group 3: International Economic Developments - In Europe, the Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.4% year-over-year in September, indicating a broader economic slowdown[40] - Japan's household consumption showed a nominal year-over-year increase of 1.8%, while the economic sentiment index improved to 109.5[51][53] - Germany's trade surplus decreased to €16.9 billion in September, with imports rising by 1.4% year-over-year and exports declining by 0.2%[41]

Group 1: Election Results and Political Landscape - Trump won the 2024 presidential election, securing over 270 electoral votes, indicating a decisive victory[9] - The Republican Party is projected to control both the Senate and the House of Representatives, with a 91% probability of a complete victory[15] - Trump leads in all seven swing states, with margins ranging from 2.2 to 4.6 percentage points[11] Group 2: Historical Market Trading Patterns - The report identifies eight global market trading patterns based on the performance of stocks, bonds, and commodities since 1989[8] - Historical analysis shows that Trump has the highest proportion of prosperity trading at 22.9% among the last six presidents[27] - Uncertainty trading during Trump's presidency reached 47.8%, the highest among all presidents, reflecting policy ambiguity[27] Group 3: Party Control and Economic Impact - Republican presidencies tend to have more prosperity trading and less recession trading compared to Democratic presidencies[29] - Unified control of the presidency and Congress is associated with higher inflation trading (16.3%) compared to divided control (12.5%)[33] - The report predicts that Trump's election will favor global stock markets, commodities, and increase market uncertainty[41]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global market has shifted from "Trump trade" to "tightening trade" following concerns over inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve signals, leading to declines in major stock indices by over 1%[9] - The U.S. CPI for October rose by 2.6% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the PPI exceeded expectations with a 2.4% increase[22][24] - Major asset classes saw significant movements, with U.S. Treasury yields rising and the dollar index increasing by 1.65%[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales for October showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.4%, slightly above expectations, but core retail sales rose only 0.1%[28] - The U.S. industrial production index decreased by 0.3% in October, indicating ongoing economic challenges[30] - The UK's GDP growth for Q3 was 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, below the expected 0.2%, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%[36] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Policy Implications - Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, with expectations for a December rate cut dropping to around 60%[13] - The tightening of monetary policy is expected to continue, with potential for only three rate cuts remaining by the end of 2025[13] Group 4: International Developments - Japan's Q3 GDP grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing expectations, driven by strong private consumption[39] - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index fell to -43.8, indicating declining economic confidence[38]

Asia Pacific Economic Research 24 September 2024 J P M O R G A N China: PBOC announced comprehensive monetary policy support 50bp RRR cut, 20bp 7-day reverse repo rate cut, and more At the State Council press conference today, PBOC Governor Pan announced a comprehensive package that exceeds market expectations. The package includes: (1) lower interest rate: by 20bp for 7-day reverse repo (primary policy rate, from 1.7% to 1.5%), 30b for 1-year MLF rate, and 20-25bp for LPR and deposit rates. The PBOC estima ...

Global Markets Strategy 24 September 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy Assessing the impact of PBoC & CSRC's stimulus combo | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Europe Equity Research 24 September 2024 J P M O R G A N China: PBOC announced comprehensive monetary policy support Read-across to EMEA Metals & Mining - JPM OW Rio Tinto, Anglo American & ArcelorMittal | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...