Group 1: Economic and Policy Changes - Trump's election victory is expected to lead to significant shifts in U.S. policy and economic direction, with a focus on tightening immigration enforcement and prioritizing tariff increases over tax cuts[9] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but future rate cut paths remain uncertain, with a more gradual approach anticipated in 2025[14] - The anticipated timeline for tax cuts is approximately one year, as they require legal processes, while tariff increases could be implemented more swiftly[10] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Trump's election, the U.S. dollar and stock markets surged, while gold and oil prices experienced significant volatility[9] - Key economic indicators show a decline in U.S. manufacturing orders, with September durable goods orders down 0.7% month-over-month and down 2.1% year-over-year[23] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 73.0, indicating improved consumer confidence, with one-year inflation expectations at 2.6%[38] Group 3: International Economic Developments - In Europe, the Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.4% year-over-year in September, indicating a broader economic slowdown[40] - Japan's household consumption showed a nominal year-over-year increase of 1.8%, while the economic sentiment index improved to 109.5[51][53] - Germany's trade surplus decreased to €16.9 billion in September, with imports rising by 1.4% year-over-year and exports declining by 0.2%[41]

Group 1: Election Results and Political Landscape - Trump won the 2024 presidential election, securing over 270 electoral votes, indicating a decisive victory[9] - The Republican Party is projected to control both the Senate and the House of Representatives, with a 91% probability of a complete victory[15] - Trump leads in all seven swing states, with margins ranging from 2.2 to 4.6 percentage points[11] Group 2: Historical Market Trading Patterns - The report identifies eight global market trading patterns based on the performance of stocks, bonds, and commodities since 1989[8] - Historical analysis shows that Trump has the highest proportion of prosperity trading at 22.9% among the last six presidents[27] - Uncertainty trading during Trump's presidency reached 47.8%, the highest among all presidents, reflecting policy ambiguity[27] Group 3: Party Control and Economic Impact - Republican presidencies tend to have more prosperity trading and less recession trading compared to Democratic presidencies[29] - Unified control of the presidency and Congress is associated with higher inflation trading (16.3%) compared to divided control (12.5%)[33] - The report predicts that Trump's election will favor global stock markets, commodities, and increase market uncertainty[41]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global market has shifted from "Trump trade" to "tightening trade" following concerns over inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve signals, leading to declines in major stock indices by over 1%[9] - The U.S. CPI for October rose by 2.6% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the PPI exceeded expectations with a 2.4% increase[22][24] - Major asset classes saw significant movements, with U.S. Treasury yields rising and the dollar index increasing by 1.65%[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales for October showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.4%, slightly above expectations, but core retail sales rose only 0.1%[28] - The U.S. industrial production index decreased by 0.3% in October, indicating ongoing economic challenges[30] - The UK's GDP growth for Q3 was 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, below the expected 0.2%, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%[36] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Policy Implications - Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, with expectations for a December rate cut dropping to around 60%[13] - The tightening of monetary policy is expected to continue, with potential for only three rate cuts remaining by the end of 2025[13] Group 4: International Developments - Japan's Q3 GDP grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing expectations, driven by strong private consumption[39] - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index fell to -43.8, indicating declining economic confidence[38]

Asia Pacific Economic Research 24 September 2024 J P M O R G A N China: PBOC announced comprehensive monetary policy support 50bp RRR cut, 20bp 7-day reverse repo rate cut, and more At the State Council press conference today, PBOC Governor Pan announced a comprehensive package that exceeds market expectations. The package includes: (1) lower interest rate: by 20bp for 7-day reverse repo (primary policy rate, from 1.7% to 1.5%), 30b for 1-year MLF rate, and 20-25bp for LPR and deposit rates. The PBOC estima ...

Global Markets Strategy 24 September 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy Assessing the impact of PBoC & CSRC's stimulus combo | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Europe Equity Research 24 September 2024 J P M O R G A N China: PBOC announced comprehensive monetary policy support Read-across to EMEA Metals & Mining - JPM OW Rio Tinto, Anglo American & ArcelorMittal | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve led a global wave of interest rate cuts, reducing rates by 50 basis points (bp) this week, with a mix of compensatory and preventive cuts[1] - Other central banks, including those in Indonesia, South Africa, and the UAE, followed the Fed's lead, while the Bank of England and Norway maintained their rates[3] - The Fed's 50bp cut included 25bp as compensation for previous policies, indicating a preventive approach rather than a response to a major economic crisis[3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Global stock markets showed mixed but overall positive performance, with U.S. stocks rebounding significantly after initial declines following the rate cut announcement[3] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to approximately 3.74%, reflecting market adjustments after the Fed's rate cut[3] - The narrowing of the yield curve indicates increased confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, as evidenced by the recovery in long-term bond yields[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.1% month-on-month, slightly below expectations, while core retail sales also rose by 0.1%[7] - Industrial production in the U.S. rebounded with a 0.8% increase in August, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity[11] - The U.S. housing market showed signs of recovery, with new housing starts rising to an annualized rate of 1.356 million units in August, exceeding expectations[13] Group 4: International Trade and Inflation - The Eurozone experienced a rebound in trade, with exports rising by 10.2% year-on-year in July, while imports increased by 4.0%[19] - Eurozone inflation showed signs of easing, with the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.2%, down from 2.6% in the previous month[22] - In the UK, core CPI rose to 3.6% in August, driven by increased service costs, while overall CPI remained stable at 2.2%[22]

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2024 年第 25 期） 2024 年 8 月 12 日 哈里斯民调反超，美国大选再生悬念 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 民银证券研究团队 | | | 【一周焦点】 | | 应习文 | | | 哈里斯获民主党提名并确定竞选搭档。明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·沃尔 | | 电 话： +852 3728 8180 | | | 兹（ Tim Walz ）与哈里斯的互补性强于特朗普与万斯组合。最新民 | | Email ： | xiwenying@cmbcint.com | | 调显示，哈里斯民调已超过特朗普，在 9 大摇摆州民调中，哈里斯 | | | | | 以 5:4 领先。随着"衰退交易"和"反套息交易"空间收窄，市场 | | | | ...

请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的免责声明 5 专题报告 宏观策略研究 图 6：2019 年美联储降息前后的主要资产表现（以首次降息时点为 100） 资料来源：WIND，美债涨幅以收益率变动乘以久期计算 1.7 历史降息交易的特点总结 从 1984 年以来的 6 次降息历史可以看出以下特点： 一是从整体涨幅排序来看，降息最有利于美债，其次是黄金，之后是美股，而 对美元的影响并不显著。从美债来看，由于市场对于降息的预期往往会提前启 动，降息前美债涨幅最大，其次是降息后 3 个月，而降息后 3-6 个月的平均表 现则会收窄甚至回落。从黄金来看，与美债相反，首次降息前后平均涨幅较小， 但降息后 3-6 个月的涨幅最为明显，从原因看黄金一般需要等到实际利率走低 （往往需要美债上行+通胀平稳）才会开始上涨，因此涨势会落后于美债。 二是在降息导致最终的衰退情境下，美债与黄金继续表现优异，美元与美股则 会出现走弱表现。其中，美股与美债表现依旧存在美债先涨后缓，黄金先缓后 涨的特征。美元与美股则会出现走弱表现，在经济发生衰退和危机的情况下， 降息在短期内对企业盈利和市场风险偏好的支持有限，导致美股走弱，不过在 降息后 3-6 个月， ...