行 业 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 电子 ＃title＃ BIS 升级出口限制凸显自主可控重要性，重 ＃ ＃inve推stSu荐ggest ion＃ (维持) 视 AI 落地终端趋势 investSugg estion Chan ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 03月 31 日 ge＃ 行 重点公司 投资要点 业 重点公司 评级 ＃ ⚫ sum 北ma 京ry 时＃ 间 3月30日凌晨，美国商务部下属的工业与安全局（BIS）发布“实施额外出口 周 沪电股份 增持 管制”的新规措施，修订了BIS于2022、2023年10月制定的两次出口限制新规，全 广钢气体 增持 面限制英伟达、AMD以及更多更先进AI芯片和半导体设备向中国销售。半导体自主 报 立讯精密 买入 可控重要性持续凸显，今明年晶圆厂存储厂保持有序扩产，国产化进展仍在加速。我 传音控股 增持 们认为未来3年国产化仍然是行业最强主线之一，国产晶圆厂的逆周期扩产叠加国产 北方华创 增持 化份额持续提升将带动半导体设备行业持续景气，设备的零组件、半导体材料景气度 澜起科技 增持 也有望触底回升，建议关注北方华创、拓荆科技、华海清科 ...

证券研究报告 房地产行业 ＃title＃ 海外地产周报(2024.03.25-2024.03.31) ＃investSuggestion＃ 推荐 （维＃ 持） 关注业绩和派息的确定性 investSuggesti onChange＃ ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 03月 31日 指数表现： 相关报告 本周涨跌幅 本月涨跌幅 年内涨跌幅 《市场认可派息丰厚的公司》 指数名称 指数点位 (%) (%) (%) 20240324 《空头回补带动地产板块反 恒生地产分类指数 51,590.28 0.07 -4.87 -15.06 弹》20240318 恒生指数 16,541.42 0.25 0.18 -2.97 《龙头民企地产物管发布盈 恒生国企指数 5,810.79 0.92 2.34 0.73 警》20240310 道琼斯指数 39,807.37 0.84 2.08 5.62 《二月新房销售仍然低迷》 纳斯达克指数 16,379.46 -0.30 1.79 9.11 20240303 《5 年期 LPR 调降超预期》 标普 500指数 5,254.35 0.39 3.10 10.16 20240225 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Communications Design (600720) [3][16]. Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.511 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.766 billion yuan, up 4.18% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 530 million yuan, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 30%, with a dividend yield of 2.8% based on the closing price on March 27 [5][6]. - The company completed an asset restructuring, officially transitioning to the engineering design sector, which is expected to enhance its market position and operational efficiency [8][11]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue by segment includes: surveying and design (9.658 billion yuan, +17.82%), engineering general contracting and project management (2.589 billion yuan, -31.73%), engineering testing and inspection (0.512 billion yuan, +17.04%), supervision (0.343 billion yuan, +13.26%), and other businesses (0.207 billion yuan, -44.01%) [6][7]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 27.17%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for continued improvement as existing projects are completed [6][7]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 13.28%, a slight decrease of 0.02 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to investment losses and fair value changes [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.91 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 1.06 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.1x, 9.4x, and 8.7x based on the closing price on March 27 [4][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for key companies in the automotive sector, including Great Wall Motors, Yinlun Machinery, Top Group, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector experienced a decline in performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.2% and the automotive sector index down by 2.0% during the week of March 25-29, 2024 [3][10]. - Xiaomi's SU7 vehicle launch exceeded expectations, with 88,898 pre-orders within 24 hours, indicating strong market demand [8][9]. - The report highlights a government initiative to boost the low-altitude economy, aiming for significant advancements in general aviation by 2030, potentially creating a trillion-yuan market [8][9]. - The report expresses optimism for the automotive industry's transition towards electrification, intelligence, and internationalization, particularly focusing on high-end domestic brands and the Huawei automotive supply chain [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Developments - Xiaomi's SU7 pricing was above expectations, with pre-orders reaching 88,898 units in the first 24 hours [8]. - A government plan was issued to enhance the general aviation sector, targeting significant improvements by 2030 [8]. 2. Sector Performance and Valuation - The automotive sector's PE-TTM (unadjusted) is reported at 30.0, with a historical valuation percentile of 13.5% [14]. - Sub-sectors such as passenger cars and commercial vehicles showed varied PE-TTM values, indicating differing market conditions [14]. 3. Key News and Announcements - BYD reported a 62% increase in electric vehicle sales for 2023, while Great Wall Motors achieved a 15.85% increase in total vehicle sales [19][20]. - The report includes various company earnings announcements, showcasing growth in revenue and net profit across several automotive firms [19][20][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 33.757 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.79%, driven primarily by rapid growth in ready-mixed concrete and aggregate businesses [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 2.762 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.34% [3][4]. - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 9.592 billion yuan, up 10.77% year-on-year, with a significant net profit increase of 87.21% to 888 million yuan, attributed to volume compensation and asset disposal gains [3][4]. - The company's product revenue breakdown shows cement, concrete, aggregate, and other businesses with revenues of 18.332 billion yuan, 7.652 billion yuan, 5.364 billion yuan, and 1.462 billion yuan respectively, with notable growth in concrete and aggregate due to increased market efforts [3][4]. - Regional revenue growth was observed across all areas, with East China, South China, and overseas markets showing significant increases of 25.46%, 24.24%, and 29.99% respectively [3][4]. - The company’s overseas production capacity reached 20.91 million tons per year in 2023, a 69% year-on-year increase, indicating successful international expansion [3][4]. - The average selling price and gross profit per ton for cement decreased due to industry oversupply and weak demand, with the cement gross profit margin at 26.76% [3][4]. - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for 2023 was 26.71%, a slight increase of 0.49 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 9.53% [3][4]. - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 3.263 billion yuan, 3.725 billion yuan, and 4.267 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.4, 7.3, and 6.4 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 2023 revenue was 33.757 billion yuan, with a 10.79% year-on-year growth [3][4]. - 2023 net profit was 2.762 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.34% increase [3][4]. - Q4 2023 revenue reached 9.592 billion yuan, with net profit soaring by 87.21% to 888 million yuan [3][4]. Product Breakdown - Revenue from cement, concrete, aggregate, and other businesses was 18.332 billion yuan, 7.652 billion yuan, 5.364 billion yuan, and 1.462 billion yuan respectively [3][4]. - Concrete and aggregate businesses saw significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 49.08% and 75.01% respectively [3][4]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth was noted in all regions, particularly in East China, South China, and overseas markets [3][4]. - The overseas production capacity reached 20.91 million tons per year, marking a 69% increase year-on-year [3][4]. Profitability Metrics - The comprehensive gross margin for 2023 was 26.71%, with a slight increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The net profit margin decreased to 9.53% due to rising costs [3][4]. Future Projections - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 3.263 billion yuan, 3.725 billion yuan, and 4.267 billion yuan respectively [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of more than 15% relative to the relevant market index [6] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company declined significantly in 2023, with a year-on-year decrease of 78.25% to RMB 23.86 billion [1] - The container shipping market entered a downward cycle in 2023, leading to a 56.22% decline in the company's container shipping revenue to RMB 168.126 billion [1] - The company actively engaged in share buybacks and dividend distributions, repurchasing approximately 215 million A-shares and H-shares by the end of February 2024 and proposing a final cash dividend of RMB 0.23 per share for 2023 [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was RMB 175.448 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 55.14% [1] - Gross margin for 2023 was 16.4%, with a projected increase to 17.7% in 2024E before declining to 6.3% by 2026E [2] - ROE for 2023 was 12.2%, expected to decrease to 3.3% by 2026E [2] Market and Industry Analysis - The global container shipping market faced challenges in 2023 due to high inflation and low growth, leading to a contraction in demand and increased supply from new vessel deliveries [1] - The Red Sea tensions in late 2023 caused a temporary tightening of supply and a rebound in freight rates [1] Shareholder Returns - The company distributed a total of RMB 11.866 billion in cash dividends for 2023, representing approximately 50% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2] - The proposed final cash dividend of RMB 0.23 per share for 2023, combined with the interim dividend, results in a total dividend payout ratio of 50% [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio for 2023 was 6.9x, expected to increase to 22.5x by 2026E [2] - PB ratio remained stable at 0.8x from 2023 to 2025E, with a slight decrease to 0.7x in 2026E [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [6][10]. Core Views - The company reported 2023 results in line with expectations, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses reaching 23.351 billion, 1.527 billion, and 1.398 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 16.78%, 19.05%, and 21.00% [6][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 48.40% and a dividend yield of 2.22% based on the closing price on March 29, 2024 [6][7]. - The traditional core business showed a recovery in profit margins, with a net profit margin increase of 1.1 percentage points to 12.7% in 2023 [4][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In 2023, the traditional core business (excluding sales to KeliPu and retail stores) achieved a revenue growth of 6.4%, while KeliPu and retail stores grew by 21.8% and 51.0% respectively [6][4]. - In Q4 2023, the traditional core business, KeliPu, and retail stores saw revenue growth of 3.8%, 24.8%, and 81.1% respectively [6][4]. Profitability - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2023 were 18.86% and 6.54%, showing a year-on-year change of -0.50 and +0.12 percentage points [6][4]. - In Q4 2023, the gross margin and net margin were 15.63% and 5.78%, with year-on-year increases of 0.91 and 0.24 percentage points [6][4]. Cash Flow - The company achieved a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 2.617 billion yuan in 2023, up 93.57% year-on-year [6][4]. Future Projections - The company expects revenue for 2024 and 2025 to be 27.54 billion and 31.40 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 17.9% and 14.0% respectively [6][7]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 and 2025 is 1.84 billion and 2.11 billion yuan, with growth rates of 20.5% and 14.6% respectively [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company Shengyi Technology (600183) [5] Core Views - The industry is at a low point, with expectations for recovery driven by growth in AI, automotive, and packaging sectors [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 16.586 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decline of 7.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.164 billion yuan, down 23.96% [4][7] - The company has received certification from a well-known global AI server client for its high-speed CCL products, indicating a significant breakthrough in the AI GPU field [6] Financial Summary - In 2023, the company's gross margin was 19.24%, a decrease of 2.79 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The revenue from copper-clad laminates (CCL) was 12,016.91 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.49%, while the revenue from PCB was 31.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.90% [2][4] - The company forecasts revenues of 18.991 billion yuan, 21.593 billion yuan, and 24.443 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.627 billion yuan, 1.968 billion yuan, and 2.344 billion yuan [7][8] Market Outlook - The report highlights that the traditional CCL sector is currently facing low profitability and inventory levels, but prices and margins are expected to recover as demand improves [6] - The company is actively investing in the research and development of packaging substrates, with applications in various high-end electronic circuit materials [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) [2][19] Core Views - CCCC's 2023 annual report shows a revenue of 758.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.81 billion yuan, up 23.61% year-on-year [5][6] - The company signed new contracts worth 1.75 trillion yuan in 2023, a 13.68% increase year-on-year, exceeding its annual target [6][9] - The report highlights significant improvements in cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 12.07 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 960.5% year-on-year [15] Financial Performance - Revenue and Profitability: - 2023 revenue: 758.68 billion yuan, with a quarterly revenue growth of 17.28% in Q4 [5][10] - Net profit for 2023: 23.81 billion yuan, with a Q4 net profit growth of 120.76% [5][10] - Gross margin improved to 12.59%, up 0.95 percentage points year-on-year [11] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast: - EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 1.57 yuan, 1.71 yuan, and 1.84 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 5.5, 5.0, and 4.7 [3][19] Business Segments - New Contracts: - Infrastructure business signed contracts worth 15.58 trillion yuan, a 14.0% increase year-on-year [8] - International contracts accounted for 18.24% of new contracts, with a 47.5% year-on-year increase [6][9] - Revenue Breakdown: - Revenue from infrastructure, design, and dredging segments showed varied performance, with infrastructure growing by 5.24% [10][11] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in domestic infrastructure driven by government initiatives and international expansion under the Belt and Road Initiative [16][17] - CCCC's 2024 targets include a new contract growth rate of no less than 13.5% and revenue growth of at least 8.2% [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [11][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.235 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 18.26%, primarily due to oversupply and insufficient effective demand, leading to a decline in cement prices in key regions [11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.498 billion yuan, a significant decline of 210.36% year-on-year [11]. - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in net profit, projecting 224 million yuan in 2024, 415 million yuan in 2025, and 992 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 63.5, 34.3, and 14.4 [11]. Market Data - As of March 29, 2024, the closing price of the company's stock was 5.36 yuan, with a total share capital of 2,658.21 million shares and a circulating share capital of 1,547.30 million shares [3]. Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin for 2023 was 11.78%, down 8.70 percentage points from the previous year, mainly due to weak market demand and significant price declines [11]. - The company achieved a cement production volume of 8.7 million tons in 2023, an increase of 11.61% year-on-year, while sales volume reached 8.6 million tons, up 10.74% year-on-year [11]. - The average price per ton for cement and clinker was 269.91 yuan, a decrease of 58.49 yuan year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 231.30 yuan, down 49.91 yuan year-on-year [11]. Segment Analysis - Revenue from cement, clinker, hazardous waste disposal, aggregates, and other products was 22.415 billion yuan, 1.633 billion yuan, 1.024 billion yuan, 1.461 billion yuan, and 1.702 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -16.17%, -41.53%, -15.01%, +26.33%, and -35.83% [11]. - The Northeast region saw a revenue increase of 5.46% year-on-year, attributed to new production lines, while other regions experienced declines [11]. Cash Flow - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 2.990 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 31.75% year-on-year, indicating effective cost reduction measures [11].