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2023年报点评:业绩有所承压,大资管业务空间广阔
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-03-28 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 170.90 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.54 billion for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.7% and 8.5% respectively. In the fourth quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 33.95 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.1%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.03 billion [1] - The company has seen a recovery in its funding-related business, with credit impairment losses remaining high, impacting overall performance. The revenue from fee-based and funding-related businesses was 69.35 billion and 46.78 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -13.7% and +16.2% [1] - The company is steadily advancing its wealth management transformation, despite pressure on fee-based businesses. The net income from brokerage, investment banking, and asset management was 27.81 billion, 15.10 billion, and 20.29 billion respectively, with year-on-year declines of -9.8%, -12.9%, and -23.3% [1] - The company is expanding its balance sheet, with a recovery in proprietary investments. Net interest income and investment income were 17.64 billion and 29.14 billion respectively, with year-on-year increases of +7.6% and +22.0% [1] - The company maintains a competitive advantage in its large asset management business, and the repurchase of shares during the reporting period reflects management's confidence. The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 32.85 billion and 37.78 billion, representing year-on-year growth of +19.3% and +15.0% [1] Summary by Sections - **Revenue and Profit Forecast**: The company is expected to achieve revenues of 176.78 billion in 2024 and 188.03 billion in 2025, with net profits of 32.85 billion and 37.78 billion respectively [2] - **Income Breakdown**: The projected net income from fee-based services is expected to decline to 62.69 billion in 2024, while investment income is expected to rise to 38.49 billion [2] - **Cost Management**: Operating expenses are projected to decrease to 137.14 billion in 2024, with management expenses expected to be 75.69 billion [2]
传媒行业跟踪报告:派对游戏激战正酣,AI游戏应用未来可期
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-03-28 16:00
行 业 研 证券研究报告 究 #industryId# 传媒 #title# 派对游戏激战正酣,AI 游戏应用未来可期 #inve推stSu荐ggest ion# ( 维持) #createTime1# 2024年 03月 24日 投资要点 行 # 相关rel 报ate 告dR eport# #⚫ sum蛋ma仔ry#、 元梦各有千秋,首轮交锋落下帷幕。《蛋仔派对》和《元梦之星》作为 业 《【兴证传媒】《游戏行业研究 派对游戏《糖豆人》的衍生,经过数月运营,已经积累起了相当程度的核心受 跟 报告系列二:小程序游戏东风正 众群体,并于寒假期间开展了首轮交锋,数据侧来看,《蛋仔派对》DAU及 劲,谁人方可破浪飞舟》 流水表现优异,《元梦之星》用户增长较高。我们认为: 踪 2023-11-08 《【兴证传媒】《游戏行业研究 1)《蛋仔派对》和《元梦之星》的产品策略亦决定了用户分层,《蛋仔派对》 报 报告系列一:游戏产业全景解 核心聚焦少年群体,《元梦之星》则更注重青年客群。 告 析,关注行业长期趋势》 2023-09-06 2)网易《蛋仔派对》注重游戏内容打造,腾讯《蛋仔派对》聚焦产品矩阵搭 建,二者各有千秋。 3 ...
2023年年报点评:业绩稳健,普惠标杆
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-03-28 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a recommendation to "Increase Holdings" [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance is relatively stable, with revenue growth showing a marginal increase. In 2023, revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 7.9% and 13.0% year-on-year, respectively [5][25]. - Loan growth is slowing down, with total assets increasing by 23.3% year-on-year, while loans grew by 10.2%. The company is actively seeking breakthroughs in inclusive finance, with a significant increase in small and micro loans [8][35]. - Asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.97% at the end of 2023, down by 1 basis point from the previous quarter [9][26]. Summary by Sections Loan Growth and Asset Quality - Total assets increased by 23.3% year-on-year, with loans growing by 10.2%. New credit issued in 2023 amounted to 10.5 billion, with corporate loans contributing 117% of the increase, while retail loans saw a decline of 2.4% [8][35]. - The company is focusing on inclusive finance, with small and micro loans reaching a balance of 45.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29% [8][35]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's net interest income decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, while fee-based income surged by 83.9% due to a low base effect. Other non-interest income also saw a significant increase of 81.9% [5][25]. - The net interest margin narrowed to 1.73%, down 48 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in loan yields [13][21]. Capital and Dividends - As of the end of 2023, the company's core Tier 1, Tier 1, and total capital adequacy ratios were 12.68%, 12.69%, and 13.88%, respectively. The dividend payout ratio increased from 14.82% to 20.45% [27][35]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 are adjusted to 0.98 yuan and 1.11 yuan, respectively, with an estimated book value per share of 9.47 yuan by the end of 2024 [6][15].
公募基金市场月度跟踪(2024年2月):债券型基金在零售市场打开局面
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-03-27 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment suggestion for the public fund market, particularly highlighting the performance of bond funds in the retail market [2]. Core Insights - The equity market showed overall recovery in February, with the CSI 300 index, CSI 500 index, and CSI 1000 index increasing by +9.4%, +13.8%, and +11.7% respectively, which also boosted the performance of mixed equity funds [8]. - The bond market continued its upward trend, with the CSI All Bond Index, CSI Financial Bond Index, and CSI Corporate Bond Index rising by +0.8%, +0.7%, and +0.7% respectively [8]. - Bond funds have become the dominant force in the new fund issuance market, accounting for nearly 70% of the total new issuance from 2022 to 2023, with a total scale of 9.04 trillion yuan by the end of 2023, representing 33.1% of the total fund scale [4][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In February, the equity market rebounded significantly, leading to a 10.7% increase in the mixed equity fund index [8]. - The bond market maintained its upward momentum, contributing to a stable investment environment [8]. 2. Product Application Situation - A total of 102 funds were applied for in February, a decrease of 52 from the previous month and 16 from the same month last year, with a focus on low-risk index and bond funds [10]. - The application included 1 stock fund, 8 mixed funds, 46 bond funds, 34 index funds, 1 FOF fund, 11 QDII funds, and 1 REITs fund [10]. 3. Product Issuance and Establishment Situation - In February, 361 billion yuan worth of new funds were issued, a year-on-year decrease of 59.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 36.2% [16]. - The issuance volumes for stock, mixed, and bond funds were 39 billion, 53 billion, and 251 billion yuan respectively, with bond funds seeing a significant drop of 42.3% [16]. 4. Existing Scale - By the end of February, the net asset value of public funds reached 29.30 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year and 7.1% month-on-month [4]. - The net asset values of stock, mixed, and bond funds were 3.09 trillion, 3.63 trillion, and 5.55 trillion yuan respectively, with equity funds accounting for 22.9% of the total fund net value [4]. 5. Bond Funds Opening Up in Retail Market - Since 2022, bond funds have gained traction in the retail market, driven by a decline in equity fund issuance and increased interest from retail investors [4]. - The growth of bond fund scale is attributed to factors such as the weak performance of equities, declining yields on bank deposits and money market funds, and the stable returns of bond funds appealing to low-risk investors [4].
兴证军工观察:产业政策推动低空经济启航,四部门印发《通用航空装备创新应用实施方案》
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-03-27 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment suggestion for the defense and aerospace industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The issuance of the "General Aviation Equipment Innovation Application Implementation Plan (2024-2030)" by four departments is expected to significantly accelerate the development of the low-altitude economy in China [4][5] - By 2027, China's general aviation equipment supply capacity and innovation capability are projected to improve significantly, establishing a modernized support system and a preliminary integrated industrial ecosystem [4][5] - By 2030, a new model for the development of the general aviation industry characterized by high-end, intelligent, and green features is expected to be established, supporting a trillion-level market scale [4][5] Summary by Sections Major Goals - The plan aims to enhance innovation capabilities, establish a complete general aviation public service equipment system, and achieve significant advancements in the modernization of the industrial chain [5] - The establishment of over 20 replicable application demonstration bases and a batch of brand products is targeted [5] Key Tasks - The report outlines five key tasks: enhancing technological innovation capabilities, improving supply chain competitiveness, deepening demonstration applications, promoting foundational support system construction, and building an efficient integrated industrial ecosystem [6] - Specific requirements include breakthroughs in core technologies, improving the reliability and economic efficiency of general aviation equipment, and fostering a diverse range of enterprise entities [6][7] Policy Context - The low-altitude economy has been recognized as a strategic emerging industry in national planning, with significant emphasis placed on its development in recent government reports [9][10] - Various local governments, such as Shenzhen, are actively implementing policies to support the growth of the low-altitude economy, including the establishment of new drone routes and infrastructure [12]
毛利率改善明显,积极开拓县城+海外市场
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-03-27 16:00
公 司 点 评 报 告 #assAuthor# 公 司 研 究 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|------------| | | | | #市场数据 marketData # 市场数据日期 | 2024-03-26 | | 收盘价(元) | 38.62 | | 总股本(百万股) | 321.54 | | | | | 流通股本(百万股) | 164.30 | | 净资产(百万元) | 5088.21 | | 总资产(百万元) | 9824.26 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 15.82 | #相关报告 relatedReport# 《【兴证建材】坚朗五金 2023 年 三季报点评:Q3 毛利率持续提 升,县城市场放量可期》2023- 11-01 《【兴证建材】坚朗五金 2023 年 中报点评:Q2 盈利改善,关注 县城市场拓展》2023-08-29 《【兴证建材】坚朗五金 2022 年 报&2023 一季报点评:Q1 经营 改善,渠道+品类扩张效益有望 显现》2023-05-08 #分析师: 黄杨huangyang@xyz ...
煤铝价格下滑致业绩回落,税率调整增厚部分利润
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-03-27 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (000933) [2] Core Views - The company's performance has declined due to falling coal and aluminum prices, but a tax rate adjustment has partially boosted profits [2] - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum segment is expected to rise in the long term, supported by increasing domestic demand and limited new capacity [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 37.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.905 billion yuan, down 22.07% year-on-year - Basic earnings per share (EPS) was 2.65 yuan, a decrease of 21.83% year-on-year - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [2][3] Production and Sales - In 2023, the company produced 1.518 million tons of aluminum products, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year, and sold 1.5273 million tons, down 6.1% year-on-year - The revenue from aluminum products was 25.294 billion yuan, a decline of 10.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 6.037 billion yuan, down 20.0% year-on-year - Coal production reached 7.1696 million tons, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year, with sales of 7.2477 million tons, up 7.4% year-on-year, generating revenue of 8.012 billion yuan, down 18.9% year-on-year [2][3] Future Outlook - The company is advancing its downstream aluminum foil projects, which are expected to become new profit growth points - The second phase of the 60,000-ton new energy battery material project is progressing well, with full production expected by August 2024 - The company anticipates that net profits will gradually improve from 2024 to 2026, with projected net profits of 6.256 billion, 6.715 billion, and 6.941 billion yuan respectively [3][4]
量贩+电商势能强劲,供应链效率持续显现
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-03-27 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][20]. Core Insights - The company announced its 2023 annual report, achieving revenue of 4.115 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 506 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 476 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 42.22%, 67.76%, and 72.83% respectively. The Q4 2023 results were in line with previous forecasts [3][10]. - For Q1 2024, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 150-170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.48%-52.41%, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 130-150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.18%-52.51%, indicating better-than-expected performance [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 33.54%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for Q4 2023 was 31.06%, down 0.18 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a slowdown in the growth of higher-margin e-commerce channels [12][33]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 12.29%, an increase of 1.87 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q4 2023 was 9.90%, up 0.93 percentage points year-on-year [33]. Revenue Growth Drivers - The significant revenue growth in 2023 was driven by the expansion of the wholesale and e-commerce channels, with e-commerce revenue increasing by 98.04% year-on-year. The company also saw strong performance in key product categories, including spicy snacks and deep-sea snacks, with year-on-year growth rates of 81.60% and 10.65% respectively [10][27]. - The company anticipates continued high growth in 2024, supported by product innovation and channel expansion, with projected revenues of 5.176 billion yuan, 6.488 billion yuan, and 8.116 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 25.8%, 25.4%, and 25.1% [20][22]. Profitability Outlook - The report indicates that despite pressure on gross margins, the company's profitability is expected to improve due to enhanced operational efficiency and cost management. The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 661 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30.7% [20][22]. - The company is expected to benefit from supply chain efficiencies and the successful integration of its product offerings, which will further enhance its profitability [20][27].
AI驱动算力需求爆发,业绩持续强劲增长
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-03-27 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.938 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.23%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.513 billion yuan, up 11.09% year-on-year [2][3] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 2.856 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.02%, and a net profit of 559 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 27.16% [2] - The demand for AI-driven computing power is surging, contributing to the strong performance of the company's PCB business, which grew by 8.09% year-on-year [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - The company's PCB business gross margin improved to approximately 32.46% in 2023, an increase of about 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the enterprise communication market board reached approximately 34.51%, up 0.18 percentage points year-on-year, driven by structural demand for high-end products [1] - The automotive board gross margin was approximately 25.65%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, with adjustments in product and capacity structure enhancing profitability [1] Market Data - As of March 25, 2024, the closing price of the company's stock was 30.22 yuan, with a total share capital of 1.912 billion shares [2] - The net assets amounted to 9.784 billion yuan, and total assets were 16.035 billion yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI and HPC, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 estimated at 2.237 billion, 2.710 billion, and 3.184 billion yuan respectively [4][5] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve gradually, reaching 33.1% by 2026 [5]
传统业务稳健增长,打造AI算力新亮点
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-03-27 16:00
证券研究报告 ##iinndduussttrryyIIdd## 电信运营商 #investSuggestion# # #d中yCo国mpa电ny#信 ( 601728 ) investSug 增持 ( 维ges持tionC)h 000 传009 统业务稳健增长# ,title 打# 造 AI 算力新亮点 ange# #createTime1# 2024 年03 月28 日 投资要点 #市场ma数rk据etData# #sum事ma件ry#:公司发布2023年年报。2023年,公司实现营业收入5078.43亿元, 日期 2024-03-26 同比+6.92%;归母净利润304.46亿元,同比+10.34%;扣非归母净利润295.53 亿元,同比+8.70%。2023年第四季度,公司实现营业收入1267.40亿元,同 收盘价(元) 5.87 比+8.21%;归母净利润33.45亿元,同比+9.66%;扣非归母净利润23.41亿 总股本(百万股) 91,507.14 元,同比-10.01%。 流通股本(百万股) 33,467.84  点评:1、5G及千兆通信+AI算力多元化发展,推动各业务ARPU稳步提升: 净 ...