商贸零售 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 双十一开启，家电、美妆和服饰品类表现突出 ——行业周报（20241014-1018） 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 ◼ 行情回顾 本周，沪深 300 上涨 0.98%，商贸零售板块整体下跌 0.07%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.05pct，涨跌幅在申万Ⅰ级 31 个行业中排第 27 位。四大子板块中专业连锁Ⅱ、 互联网电商分别上涨 10.77%、5.33%，贸易Ⅱ、一般零售呈下跌态势，分别下跌 0.28%、1.18%。 ◼ 核心观点 社零：线上消费呈现韧性，实体店铺稳步增长。9 月社零总额 41112 亿元，同比 增长 3.2%，高于 wind 一致预期的 2.27%，增速环比加快 1.1pct。我们认为，9 月 消费市场呈筑底企稳回升态势，内需促消费政策落地显效，考虑到 10 月国庆出 游、双十一大促及促消费政策的带动，居民消费有望恢复向好。从渠道看， 1-9 月全国网上零售额 108928 亿元，同比增长 8.6%。其中，实物商品网上零售额 90721 亿元，增长 7.9%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 25.7%；在实物商品网上零售 额中，吃类、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium battery sector is maintained as "Buy" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The lithium battery segment reported a revenue of 127.8 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.2 billion yuan, up 21% quarter-on-quarter. The growth in revenue is primarily driven by volume increases offsetting price declines [4][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) for the lithium battery segment in Q2 2024 is 16%, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from Q1 2024. The improvement in ROE is attributed to enhanced net profit margins and effective inventory management [4][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Lithium Battery - Revenue in Q2 2024 increased by 14% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit increase of 21% [4][12]. - The annual revenue for 2023 reached 552.5 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 20% [12]. - Global electric vehicle sales reached 13.8 million units in 2023, a 35% increase year-on-year, indicating a return to moderate growth after previous high increases [12][14]. 2. NCM (Nickel Cobalt Manganese) Cathode - Revenue for the NCM segment in Q2 2024 decreased by 2% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit surged by 325% [4][12]. - The ROE for the NCM segment was 4% in Q2 2024, down 1 percentage point from Q1 2024 [4][12]. 3. Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Cathode - The LFP segment reported a revenue increase of 39% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2024, but net profit fell by 121% [4][12]. - The ROE for the LFP segment remained at -7% in Q2 2024, indicating a challenging profitability environment [4][12]. 4. Anode - The anode segment's revenue grew by 17% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2024, with net profit increasing by 36% [4][12]. - The ROE for the anode segment was 5%, reflecting a slight decrease from Q1 2024 [4][12]. 5. Separator - Revenue for the separator segment increased by 12% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2024, with net profit rising by 1% [4][12]. - The ROE for the separator segment was 5%, down 3 percentage points from Q1 2024 [4][12]. 6. Electrolyte - The electrolyte segment reported a revenue increase of 22% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2024, with net profit rising by 67% [4][12]. - The ROE for the electrolyte segment was 5%, down 2 percentage points from Q1 2024 [4][12]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in each segment, new technologies and materials, and solid-state battery-related firms as potential investment opportunities [4].

计算机 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 ◼ 多个数据要素项目公布，关注数据要素产业链景气提升 ——计算机行业周报（2024.10.14-2024.10.18） ◼ 本周核心观点及要闻回顾 数据要素：多个数据要素项目公布，关注数据要素产业链景气提升。 据广州日报，10 月 18 日，生态环境数据要素创新基地揭牌仪式在广 州市生态环境局举行，"穗企环责通""探碳政策通""碳足迹数据报 告""云景环境智脑"等多款生态环境数据产品亮相。这些产品依托先 进的数据处理技术和生态环境数据，分别在环境风险评估、政策查询、 碳足迹追踪及环境监测监管领域展现出强大的应用潜力。 据人民网，10 月 17 日下午，国际花木发展主题会议在丰台区召开。 大会现场举行了全国首个花木数据要素综合服务平台的发布仪式。全 国花木数据要素综合服务平台包括花木大数据分析中心、花木数据资 产登记服务系统、花木数据资产评价系统、花木数据资产管理系统、 花木产业链辅助决策系统、花木产业数据要素应用创新中心 6 个子平 台，依托大数据、区块链等技术，构建起一套从数据盘点、数据资产 登记、评价到场景化应用的全链 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [3][22]. Core Viewpoints - Apple has launched the 300 billion parameter multimodal AI model MM1.5, enhancing mobile device UI comprehension. The model continues the data-driven training principle and significantly improves capabilities in multi-text image understanding and reasoning [2][13]. - Lenovo, in collaboration with Meta, has introduced the personal AI assistant AINow, which aims to enhance the personalization and intelligence of PCs [2][13]. - Horizon Robotics is set to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 24, 2024, focusing on advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving solutions [2][14]. - Netflix reported a Q3 2024 operating profit of $2.909 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51.82%, with Q4 revenue guidance exceeding market expectations [2][14]. - The report suggests that the AI consumer application sector is in a growth phase, with significant market opportunities for AI technologies [2][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review (October 14-18, 2024) - Major global indices showed varied performance, with the Dow Jones up by 0.96% and the Shanghai Composite up by 0.98% [5][6]. 2. Key Events in the Global AI Industry 2.1 Earnings Disclosure Dates - Key companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Tesla are expected to disclose their earnings on October 22, 2024 [11]. 2.2 Other Major Events - NVIDIA's CEO is expected to deliver a keynote speech at CES on January 6, 2025, where new graphics cards may be announced [12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), and others [2][16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The successful IPO of Beijing Haibo Sichuang Technology Co., Ltd. indicates further recognition of energy storage system integrators in the capital market, and the industry is expected to develop steadily [4][10] - In 2023, Haibo Sichuang's revenue was approximately 6.98 billion yuan, with a net profit of about 560 million yuan [4][10] Data Tracking - **Downstream Demand**: In August 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.1 million units, with a month-on-month growth of +11% and a year-on-year growth of +30% [12] - **Energy Storage Demand**: In August 2024, China's new energy storage added power capacity was approximately 1.9 GW, a year-on-year increase of +80%, with an energy scale of about 4.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of +108% [14] - **Battery Production**: In September 2024, China's lithium battery production was 120.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of +40% and a month-on-month increase of +8% [16] - **Material Production**: In September 2024, China's ternary cathode production was 57,000 tons (year-on-year +3%, month-on-month -7%), LFP cathode materials were 251,000 tons (year-on-year +97%, month-on-month +19%), and anode production was 171,000 tons (year-on-year +11%, month-on-month +12%) [18][19] - **Separator Production**: In September 2024, China's separator production was 1.93 billion square meters (year-on-year +43%, month-on-month +8%) [21] - **Electrolyte Production**: In September 2024, China's electrolyte production was 142,000 tons (year-on-year +33%, month-on-month +15%) [23] - **Price Trends**: As of October 18, 2024, the prices in the industry chain are as follows: battery-grade lithium carbonate at 74,000 yuan/ton, LFP (power type) at 33,000 yuan/ton, and 523 square ternary cells at 0.42 yuan/Wh [25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment opportunities in the lithium battery sector: 1) Leading companies in various segments: CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Defang Nano, Hunan Youneng, Rongbai Technology, and others [4] 2) New technologies and materials: Xinde New Materials, Tiannai Technology, Heimao Co., Ltd. [4] 3) Solid-state battery-related companies: Guansheng Co., Ltd., Jinlongyu [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electric power equipment industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The wind power sector is experiencing significant catalysts, including the 2024 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference where 11 major wind turbine manufacturers unveiled new products [2][15]. - The report highlights a notable increase in wind power installations, with 33.61 million kilowatts added in the first eight months of 2024, representing a 16.2% year-on-year growth [19]. - The average bidding price for wind turbine projects has been reported, with the highest bid at 2,176 RMB/kW and the lowest at 1,820 RMB/kW [25]. Summary by Sections 1. Wind Power Sector Market Review - The electric power equipment sector saw a weekly increase of 4.37%, ranking 12th among 31 industries [3][13]. - The wind power equipment sub-sector had the smallest increase of 0.93% during the same period [3][13]. - The top five gainers in the wind power equipment sector included companies like Shuangyi Technology and New Strong Union, with gains ranging from 3.11% to 8.62% [13]. 2. Wind Power Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Wind Power Installation Data - In the first eight months of 2024, China added 33.61 million kilowatts of wind power capacity, a 16.2% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [19]. - The monthly addition in August 2024 was reported at 3.70 GW [19]. 2.2 Wind Turbine Bidding Data - A total of 14 projects initiated wind turbine bidding, with a combined capacity of 2,294.25 MW [24]. - The bidding for offshore wind projects included a significant project by Huaneng Cangnan with a capacity of 308 MW [24]. 2.3 Upstream Raw Material Price Tracking - The average price of medium-thick plates was reported at 3,804.60 RMB/ton, showing a decrease of 1.81% week-on-week [3]. - Prices for various raw materials, including ductile iron and epoxy resin, showed mixed trends, with some decreasing and others increasing slightly [3]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth-oriented companies benefiting from offshore wind demand, such as Dongfang Cable and Haili Wind Power [4]. - Companies with strong overseas market capabilities, like Dajin Heavy Industry and Taisheng Wind Power, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]. - The report identifies main engine manufacturers like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy as having recovering profitability [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [2][8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a coordinated effort by multiple government departments to stabilize the market, including the cancellation of various housing purchase restrictions and the reduction of loan rates [6][7]. - The implementation of monetary compensation for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations is expected to release more housing demand and improve market activity [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the effects of the supportive policies will become evident in the fourth quarter, potentially leading to improved real estate sales data [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - A "combination punch" of policies is being implemented to stabilize the market, including four cancellations and four reductions in housing-related costs [6]. - The report notes a decrease in the year-on-year decline in new construction, sales area, and investment in the real estate sector from January to September 2024 [6]. 2. Market Review 2.1. Sector Performance - The A-share building materials index rose by 2.85% during the week of October 14-18, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.87 percentage points [9]. - Year-to-date, the building materials index has decreased by 6.56%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 20.96 percentage points [10]. 2.2. Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks for the week included Huali Co. (+61.06%) and Sichuan Jinding (+61.02%) [13][14]. - Year-to-date, Huali Co. and Qinglong Pipeline have shown significant gains of 65.61% and 63.43%, respectively [15]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report indicates that the price of cement has increased, driven by stable supply and recovering demand [17]. - The glass fiber market is experiencing stable prices, with some adjustments based on regional demand [16][18]. 4. Company Dynamics - Tower Group has closed a less competitive production line to optimize its operations and is focusing on maintaining its market share while maximizing profits [19]. - The company plans to invest 200-400 million yuan annually in technological upgrades and environmental projects [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [2][28]. Core Insights - The automotive market is expected to see stable growth in consumer demand due to supportive policies, with retail sales of passenger vehicles reaching 823,000 units in the first half of October 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 20% and a month-on-month increase of 17% [28]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of discounted models, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, with 195 models seeing price reductions in 2024, surpassing the total for 2023 [28]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that lead in smart technology and are well-positioned in the vehicle replacement cycle, such as XPeng Motors, BYD, Xiaomi Group, and Leap Motor [28]. Market Review - In the week from October 14 to October 18, 2024, the automotive sector rose by 1.15%, ranking 17th among all primary industries [29]. - Commercial vehicles saw the highest increase at 6.75%, while passenger vehicles experienced the largest decline at 0.83% [29][32]. Industry Data Tracking Monthly Sales - In August 2024, total automotive sales were approximately 2.453 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 8.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 5% [38]. - Passenger vehicle sales in August 2024 were about 2.181 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 4% [38]. Weekly Sales - For the first half of October 2024, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 823,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 20% [41]. Price Tracking - As of October 18, 2024, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was approximately 73,700 yuan per ton, down 4% from October 11, 2024 [43]. Industry Dynamics - Recent collaborations include Hesai Technology's exclusive partnership with Leap Motor for next-generation vehicle platforms, with the first model expected to be produced in 2025 [47]. - The report notes the launch of new models such as the Ford Lingrui and Nissan's Qichen VX6 during the week of October 14 to October 18, 2024 [48]. Company Dynamics - Companies like Yuanfeng Automotive and Fuyao Glass reported significant year-on-year profit increases for Q3 2024, with Fuyao's net profit rising by approximately 53.54% [49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The policy catalysis is intensive, and the development of national data platforms is accelerating [3] - The plan aims to establish over 100 trusted data spaces by 2028, enhancing data resource utilization and circulation efficiency [3] - The commercial model for data elements is taking shape, with public data operation authorizations already granted to some entities [3] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The National Data Bureau has solicited public opinions on the "Trusted Data Space Development Action Plan (2024-2028)" [2] - The establishment of the National Data Group Alliance aims to enhance cooperation among data enterprises across provinces and accelerate the development of the data element industry [2] Policy Developments - Multiple data element policy documents are set to be released, focusing on data property rights, circulation, revenue distribution, and safety governance [3] - The action plan emphasizes establishing a comprehensive data property rights system and specific rules for data management [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies likely to benefit from national data platform construction include ShenSanda and YiHuaLu [4] - Companies expected to benefit from public data operation authorizations include YunSaiZhiLian, GuoXinHealth, and Shanghai Steel Union [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have recently declined, with Brent crude settling at approximately $73.06 per barrel, down 7.57% week-on-week, and WTI crude at about $69.22 per barrel, down 8.4% week-on-week [11][15] - Despite the decline, the EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will continue to grow over the next two years, reaching 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and nearly 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, which is expected to support high international oil prices [15] - The oil service sector has seen a week-on-week increase in active drilling rigs in North America, although the year-on-year comparison shows a significant decline [16] - The refining sector is experiencing improved margins, with Singapore diesel and gasoline price spreads increasing by approximately $2 and $5 per barrel, respectively, while the ethylene and naphtha spread increased by about $40 per ton [18] - Polyester terminal prices indicate a recovery potential, with the POY price spread expanding to approximately 1437 RMB per ton, suggesting a favorable outlook for long filament enterprises [22] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector declined by approximately 1.61% during the week of October 14-18, 2024, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by about 1.36%, indicating a lag of 2.97 percentage points [2][9] - Leading stocks included Baoli International and Guangju Energy, while stocks like Intercontinental Oil and He Shun Petroleum saw significant declines [2][10] Upstream Sector - International oil prices have decreased, but the EIA's short-term outlook suggests that prices will remain relatively high, benefiting upstream oil and gas companies [3][15] - The number of global drilling rigs increased in Q3, which is favorable for oil service companies [16] Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with Shandong gasoline and diesel prices dropping by approximately 315 RMB and 10 RMB per ton, respectively [18] - The refining companies are expected to see significant performance recovery due to improved price spreads [18] Polyester Terminal Sector - The polyester market shows signs of recovery, with increased price spreads and inventory levels indicating potential for long filament companies [22][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main investment themes: 1. Focus on energy central enterprises like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil for their efforts in oil and gas exploration and green transformation [4][31] 2. Attention to oil service companies such as CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to rising global upstream capital expenditures [4][31] 3. Investment in long filament companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. as industry supply-demand dynamics improve [4][31] 4. Monitoring refining companies like Satellite Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical for new capacity planning and material project layouts [4][31]