资料来源: wind,中航证券研究所 2 资料来源: wind, 中航证券研究所 中航证券研究所发布 图4 2月中型制造业企业景气度环比变化强于季节性 3.0 2.0 距离1月31日的 4-0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 中型制造业企业2月PMI环比变化值(PCTS) wind 资料来源: wind,中航证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 中航证券研究所发布 联系电话:010-59219558 传真:010-59562637 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------| | 制造业 PMI 强于季节性，经济企稳再填新信号 \n报告摘要 | | 2024 年 2 月官方 PMI 点评 ...

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Industry Rating - The industry rating is **Overweight** [1] Core Views - **SSD is gradually replacing HDD** due to its superior performance and cost optimization, with SSD shipments surpassing HDD in 2020 and expected to reach cost parity with HDD by 2026 [2] - **Data storage autonomy is a major trend** in the context of the digital economy and AI development, with domestic storage manufacturers gaining technological strength and broad opportunities for localization [2] - **China is catching up in the SSD industry chain**, with breakthroughs in IDM/NAND Flash wafers, controller chips, and module manufacturing, led by companies like Yangtze Memory and Longsys [2] - **Storage manufacturers are aggressively raising prices** to improve profitability, with NAND Flash prices expected to rise by 15-20% in Q1 2024 [2] Market Trends - **SSD market share is growing**, with SSD shipments surpassing HDD in 2020 and expected to account for 25% of global storage capacity by 2025 [25][28] - **NAND Flash market is dominated by US, Japanese, and South Korean companies**, with the top 5 players holding a combined market share of 95.41% in 2022 [2] - **eSSD is a key growth driver**, with enterprise SSD demand expected to grow at a CAGR of 18% from 2022 to 2028, driven by data center and AI server needs [32][37] Technological Advancements - **SSD technology is evolving**, with advancements in NAND Flash architecture (SLC, MLC, TLC, QLC) and 3D-NAND technology, leading to higher storage densities and lower costs [13][14] - **PCIe (NVMe) is becoming the mainstream interface** for SSDs, with PCIe 5.0 expected to dominate the enterprise market by 2026 [21] - **China's Yangtze Memory has achieved breakthroughs** in 3D NAND technology, with its 232-layer QLC chip competing with international leaders [50] Competitive Landscape - **Global SSD market is highly concentrated**, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Western Digital leading the enterprise SSD market, while Kingston dominates the consumer SSD market [54][51] - **Chinese companies are gaining traction**, with firms like Longsys, Netac, and Yangtze Memory making significant progress in the SSD industry chain [49][50] - **Controller chip market is led by Taiwanese companies**, but mainland Chinese companies like Goke Micro and InnoGrit are emerging as strong competitors [56] Price Trends - **NAND Flash prices are rising**, with contract prices expected to increase by 15-20% in Q1 2024, driven by production cuts and strong demand [65][66] - **SSD prices have surged**, with some models seeing price increases of over 60% since mid-2023, particularly in the PCIe 4.0 segment [63][64] Financial Performance - **Global storage giants are recovering**, with companies like SK Hynix returning to profitability in Q4 2023, driven by price increases and improved demand [69][70] - **Chinese storage companies faced challenges in 2023**, but many showed signs of recovery in Q4, with companies like Longsys and Goke Micro reporting improved financial performance [74][75]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the stabilization of prices in the photovoltaic industry chain, with a focus on the development trends of new technologies [1][2] - Key recommended stocks include Ding Tai Gao Ke, Hua Zhong Shu Kong, Xin Lai Ying Cai, Niu Wei Gu Fen, and others [2] - The report emphasizes the potential for N-type penetration to accelerate as the price gap between TOPCon and PERC components narrows [2][3] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Industry - Prices of silicon materials, silicon wafers, and battery cells have stabilized, with slight increases noted in early 2024 [3] - The average price of dense block material rose from 65 RMB/kg to 68 RMB/kg, while the average price of 182mm single crystal silicon wafers increased by 0.05 RMB to 2.05 RMB/piece [3] - The price of single crystal PERC battery cells increased from 0.36 RMB/W to 0.38 RMB/W [3] - The report anticipates that the N-type penetration rate will accelerate as the price difference between NP and P-type components decreases [3] New Technology Developments - TOPCon battery capacity expansion is expected to boost demand for low-oxygen single crystal furnaces [5] - The introduction of superconducting magnetic field technology is anticipated to enable the stable growth of ultra-low oxygen single crystal silicon [5] - The report suggests monitoring advancements in low-oxygen single crystal furnaces and copper plating technology [11] Market Trends - The report forecasts that the market space for copper plating technology could reach approximately 6 billion RMB by 2025, driven by improvements in equipment capacity and yield rates [11][12] - The global installed capacity is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching 506 GW by 2028 [12] - The report identifies key sectors to watch, including lithium battery equipment, photovoltaic equipment, and energy storage [14][15]

◆ ◆ “ ” ◆ 1 2.08% 1.31% 2.48% 2.03% 2.80% 4.75% 0.09% 2.09% 3.71% 4.85% 2.60% 8.07% 6.04% 8.25% 12.43% 6.54% 6.01% 8.50% 8.63% 8.53% 7.76% 10.35% -5.39% -4.26% -12.96% -13.56% -18.71% -16.59% -8.84% -11.57% 1.71% 1.01% -7.09% 6,693.55 5,569.94 6,393.03 7,097.63 5,288.46 7,948.28 6,608.79 7,455.14 3,489.74 3,004.88 5,593.85 WIND ...

◆ 傲农生物 *ST天山 绿康生化 永安林业 正虹科技 涨幅前五 34.1% 33.1% 26.1% 22.2% 22.0% 仙坛股份 驱动力 瑞普生物 圣农发展 巨星农牧 跌幅前五 -5.5% -4.9% -4.6% -3.4% -2.8% ◆ ◆ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [46]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong momentum in edge AI, with generative models driving exploration in new AI fields. The global AI smartphone shipment is projected to account for approximately 15% of the overall smartphone market in 2024, leading to a new wave of device upgrades [20][31]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a modern tourism system centered around smart tourism, which is gradually forming under the empowerment of technology. This innovation is expected to expand the traditional cultural tourism industry's boundaries [34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The social services sector index experienced a weekly increase of +8.28%, ranking 4th among 31 sectors in the Shenwan index [10][14]. - Key sub-industry performances included education (+26.06%), sports II (+17.21%), and professional services (+12.69%) [16][18]. Investment Theme 1: Edge AI and Generative Models - The report discusses the rise of AI smartphones, marking a new phase in the mobile industry. Major manufacturers like OPPO, Huawei, and Xiaomi are launching edge AI models, which are expected to reshape the industry chain [20][29]. - The release of Stability AI's new generative model, Stable Diffusion 3, is noted for its potential to enhance the quality of generated images and videos, further advancing AI applications [29][30]. Investment Theme 2: Smart Tourism Development - The report outlines the announcement of pilot projects for smart tourism, aiming to leverage digital technology to enhance traditional tourism experiences [31][33]. - The addition of new cities for individual travel to Hong Kong and Macau is expected to boost local tourism economies by catering to diverse travel demands [33][34].

2024年02月25日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 股市有风险 入市需谨慎 促进我国经济高质量发展，从短期来看,将有利于进一步激发我国内需的提高,从而对 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 联系地址：北京市朝阳区望京街道望京东园四区2号楼中航产融大 厦中航证券有限公司 公司网址:www.avicsec.com 联系电话：010-59219558 = 传真：010-59562637 1 2023 年 7 月政治局会议对房地产行业定调"行业供需关系发生重大转变"以来, 下半年一系列增量稳房地产政策随之推出，包括针对需求端的降首付、利率等政策，以 及供给端的"金融 16 条"延期、"三个不低于"(明确规定银行对房企和居民购房的贷 款增速不得低于银行总体贷款增速)等政策相继推出。进入2024年,房地产支持政策 继续出台。1月12日,住房城乡建设部、金融监管总局联合发布了《关于建立城市房地 产融资协调机制的通知》(下称《通知》,要求各地级及以上城市建立房地产融资协调机 制,提出可以给予融资支持的房地产项目名单,向本行政区域内金融机构推送。据媒体 报道,截至１月底,26个省份170个城市已建立城市房地产融资协调机制, ...