2025年05月17日 证券研究报告|公司研究|公司点评 信捷电气（603416） 工控小巨人,人形机器人构筑新增长极 报告摘要 ◆ 深耕工业自动化近二十载,工控细分领域小巨人 公司成立于 2008年,主营业务是工业自动化控制产品的研发、生产和销售,主 要产品包括可编程控制器、驱动系统、人机界面、智能装置,涵盖工业自动化 系统的控制层、驱动层、执行层和传感层,是国内少数拥有工业自动化综合解 决方案的供应商。公司是国产小型 PLC、国产触摸屏的开拓者,长期位居国产 小型 PLC 市场份额前列。2022 至 2024 年，公司营收分别为 13.35 亿元、15.05 亿元、17.08 亿元，分别同比增长 2.75%、12.73%和 13.5%。 ◆ 小型 PLC 国内第二,工控产品线不断完善 2024 年公司 PLC 产品销售收入 6.48 亿元,同比增长 21.09%, 毛利率为 56.25%；其中，中型 PLC 实现销售 1000 余万元。公司在小型 PLC 领域具备 领先优势,2024 年在国内市占率 9.5%位居国内品牌第二,较 2023 年提升了 2pct。多年来,公司依靠自身在小型 PLC 市场建立的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of over 10% return relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][10]. Core Views - The company has a solid foundation in its core education business and is clearly defining new growth trajectories. It has diversified its business model to include personalized education, vocational training, cultural reading, and medical-education integration [6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 2.786 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 180 million yuan, up 16.84% year-on-year [6][8]. - The company is expanding its personalized education centers and has established over 30 full-time training bases across various provinces, enhancing its competitive edge [6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.786 billion yuan, with a quarterly breakdown showing revenues of 705 million, 915 million, 627 million, and 539 million yuan for Q1 to Q4 respectively [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 34.56%, a decrease of 1.94 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declines in the gross margin of education training services and equipment leasing [6][8]. - The company expects net profits to grow to 244 million yuan in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 2.00 yuan, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 27 times [8]. Business Segmentation - The education training service segment generated 2.697 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 25.64% [8]. - The company has also ventured into vocational education by acquiring and managing several vocational schools, aiming to create a second growth curve [7][8]. - New business initiatives in cultural reading and medical-education integration are being explored, with the potential for long-term growth [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [39]. Core Viewpoints - The company has demonstrated resilience in revenue growth, achieving over 50% growth despite overall volatility in military downstream demand in 2024 [21]. - The company is positioned as a key supplier of core components for military fiber optic inertial navigation systems, with products widely used in various military applications, suggesting a solid foundation for future growth as demand in the aerospace and defense sectors is expected to recover [18][21]. - The company is actively expanding its business through stock incentive plans and acquisitions, which are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and long-term value [19][20]. Financial Data Summary - As of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 330.76 million yuan, with a projected increase to 430.10 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 30.04% [22]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise significantly from 17.94 million yuan in 2024 to 61.85 million yuan in 2025, marking a growth rate of 244.75% [22]. - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 44.86% in 2025, down slightly from 44.62% in 2024 [22]. Business Segments Summary - **Optical Fiber Components**: Revenue from optical fiber components is expected to reach 1.24 billion yuan in 2024, a 69.07% increase, driven by increased orders from military clients [8]. - **Specialty Optical Fibers**: Revenue is projected to be 0.71 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase of 0.78%, although the gross margin has decreased to 80.17% [8]. - **New Materials**: Revenue is anticipated to grow by 15.60% to 0.24 billion yuan in 2024, despite a significant drop in gross margin to 21.91% [8]. - **Optical Devices and Equipment**: This segment is expected to see a substantial revenue increase of 102.47% to 0.53 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 38.47% [9]. - **Other Businesses**: Revenue from other business areas is projected to double to 0.58 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin improvement to 14.25% [9]. Innovation and Development - The company has made significant advancements in technology, including the digitalization and automation of the fiber winding process, which enhances production efficiency and product quality [14][16]. - Ongoing research and development efforts focus on microstructured optical fibers and integrated photonic chips, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [10][13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned in the military and aerospace sectors, with a comprehensive product portfolio that includes fiber optic gyroscopes and specialty fibers, indicating strong potential for market expansion [18][21]. - The strategic focus on emerging fields such as energy transmission, thermal management, and AI computing centers is expected to create new growth opportunities [18].

2025年05月18日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 实体经济内在动能仍需进一步修复 2025 年 5 月 12 日-2025 年 5 月 18 日周报 财政靠前发力和低基数支撑社融,实体经济融资需求仍弱 2025 年 4 月社会融资规模增量为 1.16 万亿元（前值 5.89 万亿元）,略低于市场预 期的 1.26 万亿元。2025年 4 月社融存量增速+8.7%,较 3 月+0.3PCTS,自今年 1 月以 来总体上行。 同比角度,今年 4 月社融增量同比多增 1.22 万亿元,增加值为 2023年 2 月以来最 高。结构上，4月社融仍然延续年初以来趋势,同比多增主要受益于去年同期社融增量 的低基数和明显靠前发力的财政。4 月代表实体经济融资需求的社融口径新增人民币贷 款，仅录得同比多减 2465 亿元，仅相当于近 5 年同月均值的 11%，显示实体经济融资 需求不足的问题相对凸出。 2025 年 4 月金融机构各项贷款余额增速+7.2%（前值+7.4%） 年初以来延续去年 趋势，增速仍然持续下行。4 月信贷呈现票据冲量特征，企事业单位票据融资高达 8341 亿元，较近五年同月均值高 48.6%，但票 ...

2025年05月18日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报（2025年第十六期） 并购六条正式落地 关注券商重组机会 市场表现: 本期（2025.5.12-2025.5.16）非银(申万)指数+2.49%、行业排 2/31,券商Ⅱ指 数+2.18%,保险II指数+3.58%; 上证综指+0.76%，深证成指+0.52%，创业板指+1.38%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：红塔证券（+13.84%）、锦龙股份（+13.18%）、瑞达 期货（+10.28%）、中国人保（+10.20%）、广发证券（+6.09%）； 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：中油资本（-2.66%）、海南华铁（-2.35%）、香溢融通 (-1.68%）、东北证券（-1.47%）、中粮资本（-0.92%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 2.18%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.07pct,跑赢上证综 指数 1.42pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.33 倍，位于 2020 年 20 分位点附近，处 于历史低位。 本周,5 月 16 日,证监会发布了《关于修改＜上市公司重大资产重组管 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of more than 10% return relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.44 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 2.78% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -163.46 million yuan, marking a shift to negative profitability [1][10]. - The company's gross margin was 93.22%, down 1.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -10.93%, indicating a significant decline [1][10]. - The company is facing short-term pressure on performance due to intensified market competition, rising traffic costs, and goodwill impairment [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 387 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.43%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was -158 million yuan [1][10]. - The annual revenue breakdown shows that the video creative business generated 961 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.06% year-on-year, while other segments like practical tools and document creativity saw declines [7][9]. - The company’s operating expenses increased significantly, with sales expenses rising to 849 million yuan (up 17.42% year-on-year) and R&D expenses reaching 442 million yuan (up 9.90% year-on-year) [7][10]. Future Outlook - The company is committed to deepening its AI strategy, with expectations for AI-native application revenue to reach approximately 67 million yuan in 2024, doubling year-on-year [9]. - Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to be 56.04 million yuan in 2025, 95.95 million yuan in 2026, and 153.46 million yuan in 2027, indicating a recovery trajectory [10].

2025年05月17日 证券研究报告|公司研究|公司点评 ◆ 小型 PLC 国内第二,工控产品线不断完善 2024 年公司 PLC 产品销售收入 6.48 亿元,同比增长 21.09%, 毛利率为 56.25%；其中，中型 PLC 实现销售 1000 余万元。公司在小型 PLC 领域具备 领先优势,2024 年在国内市占率 9.5%位居国内品牌第二,较 2023 年提升了 2pct。多年来,公司依靠自身在小型 PLC 市场建立的优势,进一步向中大型 PLC 及其他工控产品延伸,巩固在传统行业领先地位的同时,加速向新能源、 半导体、机器人、医疗等高端智能制造行业拓展。此外,公司以"控制"带动 "驱动"作为销售策略取得成效,驱动系统在营收中的占比从 2016 年的 22% 提升至 2024 年的 47%, 2024 年驱动类产品收入达 8.06 亿元, 同比增长 10.57%，毛利率为 24.46%。 ◆ 多维度布局人形机器人,未来成长可期 公司积极布局人形机器人领域，目前正在开发空心杯电机、无框力矩电机及配 套系统等零部件，公司将规划空心杯和无框力矩电机生产设备和产线；同时, 公司储备了驱动器、高性能光学编码器 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of over 10% return relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [2][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.44 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.78% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -163.46 million yuan, marking a shift to negative profitability [1][10]. - The company's gross margin was 93.22%, down by 1.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -10.93%, reflecting a significant decline [1][10]. - The company is facing short-term pressure on performance due to intensified market competition, rising traffic costs, and goodwill impairment [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 387 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.43%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was -158 million yuan [1]. - The annual revenue breakdown shows that video creative business generated 961 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.06% year-on-year, while other segments like practical tools and document creativity saw declines [7][9]. - The company’s sales expenses increased to 849 million yuan, up 17.42% year-on-year, and R&D expenses rose to 442 million yuan, up 9.90% year-on-year [7][10]. Future Outlook - The company is committed to deepening its AI strategy, with expectations for AI-native application revenue to reach approximately 67 million yuan in 2024, doubling year-on-year [9]. - Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to be 56.04 million yuan in 2025, 95.95 million yuan in 2026, and 153.46 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.29, 0.50, and 0.79 yuan [10].

2025年05月17日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 社会服务行业·周观点 国货美妆崛起正当时,聚焦 618 大促&新成分推出 自5月中旬起,在618预售启动、直播渠道发力以及电商平台让利加 码背景下,美妆消费热度持续提升。据第三方统计,李佳琦直播间 预售首日美妆 GMV 达25–35亿元,其中国货品牌珀莱雅、可复美 GMV 破亿，毛戈平等高端品牌亦表现亮眼。93.1%消费者倾向购 买现货,一口价、"准时达"等机制成为核心卖点，推动品牌从预 售长链条向"即时成交"转型。与此同时，消费者预算结构呈现"两 头分化"趋势，5月侧重轻量节日礼赠，6月偏好大件囤货，美妆、 个护、日化等"复购型消费"品类成为阶段性主力。我们认为,美 妆板块在消费节奏前置、促销效率提升背景下迎来交易性催化,化 妆品行业具备恢复动能。 功能性成分热度升温,推动消费从感性转向理性。近期麦角硫因等 新成分热度攀升,科伦药业董事长"亲自代言"带动该原料在护肤、 营养品等多个领域引发市场关注。麦角硫因作为超强抗氧化剂,具 备跨界潜力,补强了本土品牌在科技护肤赛道的护城河。此前重组 胶原蛋白等成分已进入功效护肤主流路径,国货品牌具备原料端话 语权 ...

◆ ◆ 1 | | 班付片 | | --- | --- | | 2025年05月09日 | | | 牧盘价(元): | 58. | | 目标价(元): | | | 公司基本数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 175.70 | | 总市值(百万) | 10,206.50 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 96.65 | | 流通市值(百万) | 5,614.56 | | 12 月最高/最低价(元) | 62.95/34.92 | | 资产负债率(%) | 25.70 | | 每股净资产(元) | 13.20 | | 市盈率(TTM) | 52.49 | | 市净率(PB) | 4.40 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 1.24 | -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 24-05 24-07 24-10 24-12 25-02 25-05 300 | ILLE | | | --- | --- | | 王宏涛 | 分析师 | | SAC执业证书:S0640520110001 | | | 联系电话:010-59562525 | | | 邮箱:wanght@ ...