Core Insights - The report suggests that the A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by improved global risk appetite and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3462.75 points in 2025 [8][9] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" completion and the "15th Five-Year Plan" formulation are expected to provide policy guidance, with a focus on technological innovation and improving people's livelihoods [9][19] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the economic transformation bull market that began on September 24, 2024, viewing external challenges, such as the U.S.-China trade war, as temporary clouds over the economic landscape [9][19] Market Review - The A-share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91%, the Shenzhen Component by 3.73%, and the ChiNext Index by 5.69% during the week [7] - Growth sectors outperformed, with the technology and defense industries seeing significant gains, while sectors like oil and food showed weaker performance [7] - Market activity increased, with an average daily trading volume of 14,866.74 billion yuan, up by 2,716.45 billion yuan from the previous week [7] Performance Correlation - The report highlights a strong correlation between market performance and quarterly earnings announcements, particularly during the mid-year reporting season, indicating that market movements are closely tied to financial results [10][11] - Historical data shows that the correlation between stock price performance and earnings growth is highest in late April, followed by late October and mid-July [11] Investment Strategy - The report advocates for a "barbell strategy" focusing on sectors with solid fundamentals and relatively low valuations, particularly in technology and defense, while suggesting a cautious approach to crowded sectors [19] - The upcoming clarity on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and potential U.S. interest rate cuts are seen as key catalysts for market movement [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating, indicating an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1][12]. Core Views - The company is experiencing robust growth in its core business, with significant progress in its digital trade ecosystem. The "Six Districts"招商 (招商 refers to the process of attracting businesses) has exceeded expectations, and the cross-border financial services are expected to become a second growth driver [6][9]. - The company has achieved a 21.9% year-on-year increase in exports from January to May 2025, with notable growth in trade with Africa, Latin America, and ASEAN [6]. - The company is set to open its "Six Districts" by October 2025, focusing on emerging industries such as low-altitude economy, jewelry, and maternal and infant products, which is anticipated to drive rental income growth [6][9]. - The cross-border payment platform, 快捷通, has seen a significant increase in transaction volume, with a total of over 40 billion USD in cross-border payments completed in 2024, reflecting a 233% year-on-year growth [6][9]. - The company is actively expanding its offshore business by establishing a subsidiary in Hong Kong, which will enhance its financial service capabilities and support its global development strategy [6][9]. Summary by Sections Company Basic Data - Total shares: 5,483.65 million - Total market value: 113,511.47 million - Circulating shares: 5,482.86 million - Circulating market value: 113,495.21 million - Highest/Lowest price in 12 months: 20.90/7.17 - Debt-to-asset ratio: 43.38% - Net asset per share: 3.89 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio (TTM): 35.88 - Price-to-book ratio (PB): 5.33 - Return on equity: 3.77% [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025: 19,933.92 million (growth rate: 26.67%) - 2026: 24,988.47 million (growth rate: 25.36%) - 2027: 30,113.54 million (growth rate: 20.51%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is projected to be: - 2025: 4,258.59 million (growth rate: 38.55%) - 2026: 5,382.25 million (growth rate: 26.39%) - 2027: 6,452.43 million (growth rate: 19.88%) - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be: - 2025: 0.78 yuan - 2026: 0.98 yuan - 2027: 1.18 yuan [8][9].

Economic Indicators - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month, indicating resilience despite external tariff impacts[9] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, surpassing the previous value of 5.1%[11] - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with real estate development investment declining by 10.7%[13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,420.566, with a weekly decline of 0.51%[2][31] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.16%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.45%[31] - Daily average trading volume decreased to 12,150.34 billion yuan, down by 1,566.44 billion yuan from the previous week[31] Investment Trends - Equipment investment is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by long-term special government bonds aimed at equipment upgrades[5] - The manufacturing sector's investment growth is slowing, with a notable decline in electric equipment and real estate sectors[13] - The financial sector showed strength with a 1.37% increase, while consumer sectors faced a decline of 3.61%[31] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a total of 9,603 billion yuan in reverse repos this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan[6][19] - The upcoming seasonal transitions and government bond financing are expected to impact liquidity, with a focus on the central bank's monetary policy actions[20] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include tighter monetary policy, unexpected economic recovery leading to rising bond yields, and deteriorating local fiscal conditions[35] - The market may continue to experience "high-low cuts," with a focus on dividend sectors and low-position technology stocks as rotation opportunities[34]

2025年06月20日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观深度 金融市场分析周报 (2025.06.09-2025.06.13) 报告摘要 | 主要数据 | | | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3362.1082 | | 沪深 300 | 3843.0912 | | 深证成指 | 10051.9655 | 主要指数走势图 作者 刘庆东 分析师 SAC 执业证书: S0640520030001 联系电话:010-59219572 邮箱：liuqd@avicsec.com 相关研究报告 | 金融市场分析周报 (2025.06.03-2025.06.06) | | --- | | -2025-06-13 | | 金融市场分析周报 —2025-06-06 | | 金融市场分析周报 —2025-05-30 | 入市需谨慎 股市有风险 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 联系地址:北京市朝阳区望京街道望京东园四区2号楼中航产融大 厦中航证券有限公司 公司网址：www.avicsec.com 联系电话：010-59219558 传真:010-59562637 证券研究报告 中航证券研究所发布 1 ● CPI/PPI： ...

2025年06月14日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报(2025年第二十期) 政策利好、券商有望迎来估值修复 市场表现: 本期（2025.6.9-2025.6.13）非银(申万)指数+1.16%、行业排 6/31, 券商Ⅱ指 数+0.82%,保险II指数+2.06%; 上证综指-0.25%，深证成指-0.60%，创业板指+0.22%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：南华期货（+12.63%）、湘财股份（+7.57%）江苏金租 (+6.77%）、浙江东方（+5.74%）、瑞达期货（+5.26%）； 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：海南华铁（-7.18%）、九鼎投资（-3.76%）、渤海租赁 (-3.32%）、华金资本（-2.59%）、哈投股份（-1.91%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.82%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.07pct,跑赢上证综 指数 1.07pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.28 倍，位于 2020 年 20 分位点附近，处 于历史低位。 本周,中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深 化改革创新 ...

行业报告:先进制造行业周报 2025年6月8日 中航证券有限公司 AVIC SECURITIES CO ... LTD. "稳定币第一股" Circle 上市,稳定币加速迈入主流金融体系 行业评级：增持 分析师：卢正羽 证券执业证书号：S0640521060001 分析师：闫智 证券执业证书号：S0640524070001 中航证券研究所发布 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款部分 股市有风险 入市需谨慎 中航先进制造- -- 投资观点 1.本周专题研究:Circle业务收入及盈利来源主要依靠储备收入, ■ 重点推荐:信捷电气、北特科技、汉威科技、兆威机电、恒立液压、纽威股份、软通动力 ■ 重点跟踪行业——人形机器人： ■ 核心个假组合;信捷电气、北特科技、兆威机电、恒立液压、组威股份、三花智控、双林股份、鸣志电器、五洲新春、莱斯信息、纳睿雷达、轨通 动力、航锦科技、华伍股份、华阳集团、万马科技、绿的谐波、埃斯顿 ■ 本周专题研究：北京时间2025年6月5日，美国金融科技企业 Circle 成功登陆纽交所，正式成为全球"稳定币第一股"。公司股价相按发行价上涨 近2.5倍、总市值约为238亿美元。稳定币（ ...

行业报告：光进制造行业周报 中航证券有限公司 AVIC AVIC SECURITIES CO., LTD. "稳定币第一股"Circle上市，稳定币加速入主流金融体系 行业评级：增持 分析师：卢正羽 证券热业证书号：S0610521060001 中航证券究所发布证券列究报告 请务必阅读正义的免试条款部分 股市有风险人中需谨慎 2025年6H8H 航先过制楚一一按资规点 ◼ 重点推荐：信捷电、北特料技、汉威科技、兆威机申、恒立波正压、纽威股份、软通动力 ◼ ■重点跟踪行业一一人机器人： ◼ 动力、即鼎科技、平股份、华集团、厅与料技、绿的谱波、埃期斯赖 ◼ 市场价值及商业模式已经得到全球主流资本市场认可。 ■本周专趣研统：北京时间2025年6月5日，美国金融科技企业Circle成登陆纽交所，正代成为全球"稳定币第股"。：公司设价相较发行价上涨 近2.5倍，总市约238亿美元：稳定币（Stablecoim），是-种由非官方企业或机构基于法定货币（如美元、港币）晚价价科对稳定的资产（如 造为美元需权地位新基石，其财政部区Sco比BesseHt预计微宁资产将为美国压债市场带来高达2方亿美元的新端需求。德意银行最新研报显 ...

2025年06月06日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报(2025年第十九期) 券商积极回购提振市场信心 市场表现: 本期（2025.6.2-2025.6.6）非银（申万）指数+1.99%，行业排 10/31，券商Ⅱ指 数+2.39%,保险Ⅱ指数+1.03%; 上证综指+1.13%，深证成指+1.42%，创业板指+2.32%。 综合来看,目前监管明确鼓励行业内整合,在政策推动证券行业高质量发展的趋 势下,并购重组是券商实现外延式发展的有效手段,券商并购重组对提升行业整 投资评级 增持 维持评级 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：南华期货（+43.66%）香溢融通（+11.23%）瑞达期货 (+10.17%）、永安期货（+8.46%）、国泰海通（+7.68%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位: 拉卡拉（-3.00%）、国信证券（-0.27%）、江苏金租（- 0.17%）、湘财股份（-0.12%）、天茂集团（-0.00%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 2.39%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.51pct,跑赢上证综 指数 1.26pct。当前券商板块 PB ...

行业报告: RWA 2025年6月6日 中航证券有限公司 AVIC SECURITIES CO., LTD. RWA：为现实世界资产开启数字金融之门 行业评级： 增持 分析师：卢正羽 证券执业证书号：S0640521060001 分析师：刘牧野 证券执业证书号： S0640522040001 中航证券研究所发布 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款部分 ■ 行业概览: RWA (Real World Assets)，即现实世界资产代币化。核心为通过区块链技术将传统实体资产（如房产、设备、债券、新能源设施 等）转化为可以线上交易的数字通证（Token），助力现实世界资产实现在区块链数字网络上的实时交易与流转。其有效破解了逆全球化寒潮冲 击之下的传统资产流动性不足、信任缺失、交易成本高等现实难题、为全球经济及金融数字化创新带来全新发展机遇。稳定币，既属于广义的 RWA范畴之一，也是RWA资产实现数字化交易的基础支付、结算媒介。 ■ RWA业务与监管:RWA业务,首先、在将现实世界资产转化为数学化代币产品的过程中,必须要明确标的资产的价值、所有权和法律地位。其 次，通过数字化信息桥把真实资产世界和数字资产世界连 ...

2025年06月06日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报(2025年第十九期) 券商积极回购提振市场信心 市场表现: 本期（2025.6.2-2025.6.6）非银（申万）指数+1.99%，行业排 10/31，券商Ⅱ指 数+2.39%,保险Ⅱ指数+1.03%; 上证综指+1.13%，深证成指+1.42%，创业板指+2.32%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：南华期货（+43.66%）香溢融通（+11.23%）瑞达期货 (+10.17%）、永安期货（+8.46%）、国泰海通（+7.68%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位: 拉卡拉（-3.00%）、国信证券（-0.27%）、江苏金租（- 0.17%）、湘财股份（-0.12%）、天茂集团（-0.00%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 2.39%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.51pct,跑赢上证综 指数 1.26pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.27 倍，位于 2020 年 20 分位点附近，处 于历史低位。 近日,多家券商披露回购进展,截至6月5日,今年以来已有6家券商实施了股份 回购,已回购股份 ...