2025 年 10 年 18 年 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 社会服务行业·周观点 离岛免税政策系统优化，封关前消费红利加速释放 年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年年年年年年 年年年年 年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年 年年年年 年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年 年年年年 年年 年年年年 年年年年年 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24-10 24-12 25-03 25-05 25-08 25-10 年年年年 年年300 年年 裴伊凡 分析师 SAC 执业证书：S0640516120002 联系电话：010-59562517 邮箱：peiyf@avicsec.com 郭念伟 分析师 SAC 执业证书：S0640525040003 联系电话： 邮箱：guonw@avicsec.co ...

据海关统计,以美元计价,2025年9月我国实现出口总值 3258.70 亿美元,同比+8.30%,大幅超出市场预期(+5.65%)。9 月实现进口总值 2381.20 亿美元,同比+7.40%,同比增速较上月上行 6.10PCTS,远超 市场预期的+1.37%。2025 年 9 月贸易顺差录得 904.50 亿美元，同比 +10.63%。整体来看,9月我国外贸进出口呈现"双超预期"的强劲表 现,出口韧性凸显且进口增速显著回升,反映出我国产业链优势与市场 多元化战略的成效,也为宏观经济稳定提供了有力支撑。 以当月各项目出口金额减去去年同期出口金额之差比上去年同期 的出口总额衡量各项目对出口同比增速的拉动作用,分产业类别看,以 美元计价, 2025年９月机电产品拉动力为 7.68PCTS,2025年以来连 续 7个月成为我国出口增速的核心支撑。从具体的品类看,集成电路、 液晶平板显示模组、船舶、汽车和汽车底盘这四类商品对出口增速的拉 动作用较大。 从量价关系角度,9月肥料、集成电路、船舶和液晶平板显示模组 四类商品实现量价齐升。其中肥料出口数量同比上涨幅度超过 68%,其 余类产品出口数量同比上涨幅度超过 10% ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][38]. Core Views - The A-share margin trading balance has reached a new high of 2.44 trillion yuan, reflecting a robust demand in the margin trading market. The financing balance accounts for 2.54% of the circulating market value, and the financing buy-in amount represents 11.80% of the A-share trading volume [2]. - The current PB valuation of the brokerage sector is 1.42 times, which is near the 40th percentile of 2020, indicating a historical low [1]. - Regulatory encouragement for industry consolidation is evident, with mergers and acquisitions seen as effective means for brokerages to achieve external growth and enhance competitiveness [3][6]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Weekly Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume for A-shares was 23,132 billion yuan, down 8.13% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 3.78%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points [11]. - As of September 26, 2025, the total equity financing scale reached 876.615 billion yuan, with IPOs contributing 75 billion yuan and additional financing at 757.9 billion yuan [13]. Insurance Weekly Data Tracking - The total insurance premium income for July 2025 was 42,085.29 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.75%. The life insurance sector accounted for 33,202.78 billion yuan, up 7.53% year-on-year [27]. - The insurance sector is seeing a surge in new product launches, with 993 life insurance products and 652 annuity products introduced this year, indicating a shift towards more competitive offerings [7]. Industry Dynamics - Recent announcements from regulatory bodies support the development of bond repurchase business for foreign investors, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated bonds [31]. - Measures to foster the growth of digital economy innovation enterprises have been introduced, aiming to accelerate the listing and financing of high-quality companies in this sector [32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [26]. Core Insights - The ASI declaration by Alibaba signifies a new direction for the AI industry, with a focus on collaboration between government and enterprises, and the acceleration of AI applications across various sectors [2][21]. - The AI industry is currently experiencing a phase of multiple resonances in policy, technology, and application, which is expected to lead to systematic implementation rather than isolated breakthroughs [21]. - Short-term developments in policy implementation and standardized evaluation systems are anticipated to drive the industry towards a more regulated and sustainable growth trajectory [21]. - In the medium to long term, the multi-dimensional upgrades of large models are expected to accelerate their penetration into sectors such as education and film, enhancing application implementation and industrialization processes [21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The social services sector index experienced a weekly decline of 5.92%, ranking 31 out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry performance [7]. - The performance of sub-industries showed declines, with tourism and hospitality sectors facing significant drops of 9.46% and 9.18%, respectively [7][19]. Core Insights - The ASI declaration and collaboration with NVIDIA highlight the industry's forward-looking signals, emphasizing the importance of computational power and AI agent evolution [2][21]. - The collaboration between Alibaba and NVIDIA covers various aspects of Physical AI, including data synthesis, model training, and environment simulation [2][21]. - The AI applications are transitioning from isolated pilot projects to cross-regional and cross-scenario implementations, supported by initiatives like the China-ASEAN AI cooperation [18]. Industry News Dynamics - The Ministry of Education and other departments have launched a plan to enhance the quality of high schools in rural areas, focusing on resource expansion and digital education [22]. - A joint initiative to promote electrification in buildings has been proposed, aiming to reduce carbon emissions and enhance energy efficiency [23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [13]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant revenue growth forecast, with projected revenues increasing from 393.63 million in 2023 to 1,537.82 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 38.58% [12]. - The company is expected to recover from previous losses, with net profit projected to improve from -54.18 million in 2023 to 67.04 million by 2027 [12]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong asset base, with total assets expected to grow from 2,016.37 million in 2023 to 2,191.79 million by 2027, indicating a solid financial foundation for future growth [12]. Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 6.54 billion, with a total share capital of 410.65 million shares [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at -30.02, indicating negative earnings, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio stands at 4.47 [5]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 14.67%, suggesting a relatively low level of debt compared to its assets [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.13 in 2023 to 0.16 by 2027, indicating a turnaround in profitability [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry [3] Core Views - The defense and military industry is currently in a stabilization phase after a significant correction, with expectations of a structural rotation within the sector driven by improving fundamentals and active themes [1][2] - The long-term logic of the industry remains solid, driven by the strategic goal of building a world-class military by 2049, which underpins the industry's growth trajectory [2] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Analysis - The defense and military index experienced a weekly increase of 1.84%, ranking 14th out of 31 sectors, indicating a recovery following a prior downturn [1] - The total trading volume for the military sector was 288.6 billion yuan, down 32.99% from the previous week, reflecting a decrease in trading activity [1] - The market is expected to enter a stable phase in the short term, supported by the release of mid-year performance reports and the anticipation of new orders as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes [2] Investment Trends and Directions - The military industry is in a favorable economic cycle, with a projected "V" recovery as the "14th Five-Year Plan" progresses and the "15th Five-Year Plan" becomes clearer [10] - Key investment opportunities include unmanned equipment, military intelligence, satellite internet, and electronic countermeasures, as well as sectors combining military and civilian applications such as low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace [10] Company Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, military listed companies reported total revenues of 440.55 billion yuan, an increase of 8.43%, and a net profit of 21.42 billion yuan, up 5.11% [40] - The aerospace sector showed signs of recovery, with significant orders contributing to revenue growth, while the shipbuilding sector is experiencing a favorable upcycle [8][9] Notable Events and Announcements - Recent significant contracts and orders have been disclosed, indicating a positive trend in demand recovery within the military sector [40] - The report highlights various companies and sectors to watch, including those involved in military aircraft, low-altitude economy, and commercial aerospace [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the defense industry [3]. Core Insights - Military intelligence is not a future concept but a current reality, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and technology [3][19][28]. - The military sector is undergoing significant transformation due to the integration of AI, which is reshaping defense strategies, operational capabilities, and equipment systems [17][30]. - The global military AI market is projected to reach approximately $21.003 billion by 2027, with the U.S. military AI market expected to grow to $3.133 billion by 2025 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Military Intelligence: New Quality Combat Power - Military intelligence is characterized by self-perception, decision-making, execution, learning, adaptation, and enhancement capabilities [3][18]. - The current era is witnessing a rapid evolution in military operations, with AI technologies being pivotal in this transformation [19][28]. Transformation of Defense Systems - AI is not just upgrading equipment but is fundamentally changing the defense system, structure, and operational models [3][30]. - Companies like Palantir have seen significant market success, with stock prices increasing by over 1263.68% since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][8]. Main Application Paths of Military Intelligence - AI encompasses various technologies, including machine learning, robotics, computer vision, biometrics, and natural language processing, which are applied across different military domains [8][9]. - The military AI market is expected to grow significantly, with the U.S. market projected to reach $3.133 billion by 2025 and the global market reaching $12.428 billion [9][10]. Key Industry Segments - The report identifies several companies involved in the military AI sector, including aerospace electronics, Chengdu Huami, and others focusing on computing power, sensors, algorithms, and intelligence analysis [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of returns exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][13]. Core Viewpoints - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 26.85 billion, a decrease of 12.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 5.09 billion, down 19.26% year-on-year [1][7]. - The mobile gaming business generated revenue of CNY 20.28 billion, a decline of 16.41% year-on-year, attributed to the maturation of two major products [7]. - The company is focusing on AI, cloud services, and ICT sectors, with a new model application system launched in 2025H1, enhancing operational efficiency and user experience [9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth of its overseas mobile gaming business and the expansion of its AI and cloud services [9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2025H1, the overall gross margin was 59.83%, down 2.48 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 18.78%, down 1.63 percentage points year-on-year [1][7]. - The company’s total assets were CNY 6,802.77 million in 2023, projected to grow to CNY 12,839.62 million by 2027 [12]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is CNY 1.36 billion, with an expected EPS of CNY 0.69, corresponding to a PE ratio of 19.24 [10].

Market Overview - As of the end of August 2025, there are 73 listed REITs with a total market capitalization of 218.757 billion CNY and a circulating market capitalization of 104.355 billion CNY, accounting for 47.70% of the total market capitalization[2][19]. - The CSI REITs Total Return Index decreased by 2.62%, and the CSI REITs (Yield) Index fell by 2.86%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (+7.97%), Shenzhen Component Index (+15.32%), and ChiNext Index (+24.13%) in August[2][11]. Trading Data - In August 2025, the trading volume of the CSI REITs Total Return Index was 8.613 billion CNY, a decrease of 7.58% from July, but a year-on-year increase of 8.19%[3]. - The trading volume was 20.417 million hands, down 4.06% month-on-month and down 5.30% year-on-year[3]. Performance by REIT Type - Among ten types of REITs, the Consumer Infrastructure REITs index showed a notable performance with a monthly increase of 5.04%, while the Transportation Infrastructure REITs index decreased by 1.75%[4]. - The top-performing REITs in August included Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT (+7.34%) and Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT (+7.08%), while the worst performers were Zhongjin Hubei Keti Guanggu REIT (-8.62%) and Hongtu Innovation Shenzhen Anju REIT (-8.61%) [20]. Key Events - The first batch of data center REITs was listed on August 8, 2025, which is expected to enhance investment confidence in the digital economy and AI sectors[5]. - On August 29, the first public REIT expansion project by a state-owned enterprise in Shanghai was successfully listed, raising approximately 1.723 billion CNY[10]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a cautious investment approach focusing on REITs with stable cash flows, particularly in the Transportation and Warehouse Logistics sectors, which are expected to provide stable income and potential for appreciation as the economy recovers[12][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][15]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 3.972 billion yuan, down 1.30% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 50.74% to 451 million yuan [1][7]. - The company's gross margin improved to 35.01%, up 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin increased to 13.19%, up 4.35 percentage points year-on-year [1][7]. - The company is leveraging its regional resource advantages and the integration of AI in education to enhance its growth potential, with a focus on digital transformation and the development of new educational products [9][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.972 billion yuan, with a quarterly breakdown showing Q1 revenue of 2.113 billion yuan (up 1.21% year-on-year) and Q2 revenue of 1.859 billion yuan (down 4.01% year-on-year) [1][7]. - The company's publishing business saw revenue growth of 23.80% year-on-year, while the distribution business grew by 2.21% [7]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 11.818 billion yuan and a total share capital of 881.97 million shares [3]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.061 billion yuan in 2025, with expected growth rates of 31.07% in 2025, 6.69% in 2026, and 5.85% in 2027 [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.20 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.13 [12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively promoting its "Digital South Transmission" strategy, integrating digital textbooks and services into the educational system, and has launched AI-assisted educational tools [11][9]. - The company has established a strong presence in the educational publishing sector, with its textbooks covering 28 provinces and autonomous regions in China [9][11]. Market Position - The company benefits from a solid foundation in the education sector, supported by favorable demographic trends and government spending on education in its core regions [9][11]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for digital education resources and AI applications in the educational landscape [11].