Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 87 points or 0.4% to close at 19,663 points on November 19, marking a slight rebound for the second consecutive day[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.2%, closing at 4,395 points, while market turnover dropped to approximately HKD 121.9 billion, the lowest since November 4[1] - The volatility index for the Hang Seng Index fell by 6.1%, reaching a one-month low, indicating reduced market activity[1] Sector Performance - The materials sector led gains with a 4.0% increase, driven by significant rises in companies like Ganfeng Lithium (up 11.7% to 13.3%) and China Gold[1] - Brokerage stocks benefited from high A-share financing balances, with China Merchants Securities rising by 6.3%[1] - Consumer sectors, including automotive and appliances, also saw positive performance, although Xiaomi's stock fell by 1.7% after earnings, while Trip.com rose by 5.8%[1] Macroeconomic Indicators - China's fiscal revenue in October reached CNY 2.19 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, with tax revenue growth turning positive for the first time this year at 1.8%[2] - Non-tax revenue surged by 39.6% year-on-year, totaling CNY 285.5 billion, indicating strong growth in this area[2] - Government expenditure in October accelerated to CNY 1.97 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.4%, supported by infrastructure spending[2] Investment Outlook - The Hang Seng Index is expected to find technical support around the 19,500-point level, with future performance dependent on the sustainability of economic recovery momentum[8] - The report suggests that while the market faces short-term pressures, there is potential for recovery driven by infrastructure investment and consumer policies expected from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference[8]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a consolidation phase, with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) experiencing a significant drop of 6.5% last week, closing at 21,251 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 9.4%, closing at 4,736 points, indicating a broader market decline[1] - Average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong market increased by 10.5% to HKD 417.4 billion[1] Economic Indicators - China's September CPI rose by 0.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from August, reflecting weak consumer demand[4] - The PPI for September fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with a larger decline than the previous month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures[4] - In the U.S., September CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021[7] Investment Strategy - The current market strategy suggests a focus on low buying and high selling to capture short-term fluctuations, with a preference for sectors showing strong earnings growth and reasonable valuations[1] - Recommended sectors include leading internet companies, insurance benefiting from capital market recovery, and resilient consumer sectors such as appliances and dining[1] Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has returned to approximately 4.1%, reflecting a correction in previously overly optimistic rate cut expectations[1] - The spread between U.S. and Chinese 10-year government bond yields has widened to about -1.90%[22] Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar index has strengthened to around 102.8, driven by robust economic data and expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts[22] - The offshore RMB is expected to remain strong at levels between 7.0 and 7.1, despite pressures from the dollar's appreciation[22]

Market Performance - On October 14, the Hang Seng Index experienced a high-low fluctuation of 655 points, closing down 159 points or 0.8% at 21,092 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.4%, closing at 4,668 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.0%[1] - Market turnover decreased to HKD 277.1 billion, the lowest since October 4, indicating a potential downward trend in trading volume[1] Economic Indicators - In September, new RMB loans decreased by CNY 720 billion year-on-year, with both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for residents declining for eight consecutive months[1] - The M1 money supply fell by 7.4% year-on-year, marking a record low, indicating insufficient cash flow in the economy[1] - September's export figures showed a 2.4% year-on-year increase, the lowest growth rate since May, falling short of the expected 6%[2] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities reached 2.18 million square meters, down 12.0% year-on-year, but up 139.2% month-on-month[2] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for the top ten cities was 94.7, higher than last year's 72.7 but lower than the previous week's 111.3[2] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 22.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing zero transactions[4] Investment Strategy - The Hang Seng Index's PE ratio has recovered to a seven-year average, with a potential target range of 23,500 to 25,000 points by year-end[5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, including consumer goods, technology, and non-bank financials[6] - Recent government policies aimed at stimulating the economy are expected to improve market sentiment and potentially lead to a recovery in the real estate sector[5]

2024 年 8 月 19 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 随着日元套息交易平仓带来的流动性冲击完结，以及美国经济衰退的忧虑消退后，海外股市逐渐修复 8 月以来的下跌，港 股也在海外股市回稳及绩优权重股的带动下连续两周上升，并开始摆脱 17,000-17,200 点窄幅整理区域。恒生指数上周全 周上升 2.3%，收报 17,430 点。恒生科指全周上升 0.7%，收报 3,459 点。大市日均成交减少至 790 多亿港元，港股通全周 净流入 165.8 亿港元，继续带来增量资金。8 月以来公布的一系列中国经济数据显示经济下行压力较大，制造业 PMI 连续 三个月收缩，社零、固投及工业生产增速放缓，房地产销售低迷，居民及企业缺乏信贷需求。内部有效需求不足造成核 心 CPI 维持低位。不过，港股的估值处于低位给予一定的下行保护，恒生指数的风险溢价高于滚动两年平均一个标准偏 差，恒生科指预测 PE 处于历史低位，AH 溢价指数也处于三年来 87.0%分位数的位置。另一方面，下半年中央财政加力， 专项债加快发行，3,000 亿元消费品以旧换新及设备更新等政策有助于助力下半年经济增长。美国通胀及就业正在温和放 缓，为 9 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.14 billion RMB in 1H24, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.2%, driven by a high cost-performance strategy [2]. - The main brand contributed 3.94 billion RMB, with an 18.1% increase, while the children's brand saw a 24.2% growth to 1.13 billion RMB [2]. - The overall gross margin slightly decreased to 41.5%, with a net profit of 790 million RMB, up 12.2% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit margin of 15.4% [2]. - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.165 HKD per share, a 154% increase, with a payout ratio of 40.3% [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 41.5%, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for footwear products decreased to 42.8% [2]. - The advertising expenses increased by 42.4% to 540 million RMB, reflecting a focus on enhancing store image and sponsoring sports events [3]. - The company aims for a net profit growth target of 10%-12% for the full year, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 40% [4]. - The forecast for revenue growth in the 2024 ordering session is set at 15%-20% year-on-year [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company’s product categories show that running products account for 52% of revenue with over 40% growth, while basketball products represent 8% with a growth rate of about 20% [3]. - E-commerce sales reached 1.25 billion RMB, making up 24.4% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [3]. - The company has 5,740 offline stores, with a net increase of 6 stores since the end of 2023, and offline retail sales grew by over 10% year-on-year [3].

策略周报| 2024 年 8 月 12 日 香港股市 | 2024 年 8 月 5 日 - 2024 年 8 月 11 日 全球避险情绪有所降温，港股低估值易企稳 每周策略建议 港股：日本央行"偏鸽"发言维稳日元，日元有所回弱，利好全球风险资产反弹。 美国服务业尚稳，最新初领失业金人数下降，缓解经济衰退的忧虑。资金避险情绪 有所减退，港股在当前较低估值水平也容易企稳。港股恒生指数的风险溢价已处于 七年来 86.7%分位数的位置，高于滚动两年平均两个标准偏差，估值水平在历史低 位。7 月中国物价、进出口数据表现参差，基本面温和修复底色不改。二季度央行 货币政策报告强调加强逆周期调节，国内宽货币政策空间有望进一步打开。近周恒 生指数的盈利预测有轻微上修，主要由科技及工业板块贡献。全球避险情绪进一步 降温，高 BETA 且盈利能力持续提升的互联网相关或恒生科技指数有望率先反弹。 美股：美国 7 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 重回扩张区间，有助纾缓衰退忧虑。美股企业盈利 有小幅下调，但与过去 10 年的平均趋势差不多。等权标普及等权纳指的调整幅度 少于市值加权，反映美股下跌主要由今年以来过分挤拥的仓位平仓所致。等权纳指 ...

2024 年 8 月 12 日 星期一 每日大市点评 日本央行放"鸽"维稳日元和股市，日元重新回跌，全球风险资产的抛售压力抒缓。美国服务业尚稳，初领失业金人数 超预期回落，缓解市场对经济衰退的忧虑。上周周中之后资金避险情绪逐步有所减退，港股在当前较低估值水平也容易 企稳。恒指上周收报 17,090，全周上升 0.9%，重回万七关口；恒生科技指数收报 3,436，全周上升 1.5%。上周大市日均 成交额增长6.2%至1,036亿港元，港股通净流入152亿港元。受惠美联储降息预期升温和资金避险情绪缓和，上周高beta 的医疗保健、地产、科技板块涨幅领先，前一周涨幅较多的电讯回调明显，工业、原材料和能源跌幅靠前。 基本面温和修复的背景下，当前恒生指数的盈利预测上修动能较为反复，港股业绩期以来多数消费股业绩低迷。不过， 当前港股的估值再度跌至较低水平或有助企稳，恒生指数的风险溢价升至滚动两年两个标准偏差附近。资金避险情绪趋 于缓和，港股有望实现估值修复。我们预计 8 月恒生指数合理高低波幅在 16,100 点至 17,800 点左右，策略上可关注： 1）盈利持续上修且估值具性价比的互联网及游戏；2）海外经济支持出口制 ...

2024 年 8 月 8 日 星期四 每日晨讯 > 每日大市点评 8 月 7 日，港股跟随海外股市回稳，恒生指数上升 230 点或 1.4%,收报 16,877 点。恒生科指上升 1.2%,收报 3,382 点。 大市成交金额有 957 多亿港元,港股通净流入 116.73 亿港元,主要流入盈富基金及恒生中国企业两只指数 ETF。恒指波 幅指数下跌 6.6%至 22.1 点,回到较低水平,预示恒生指数的波动性有所下降。近期股市及外汇市场波动引起多国政府的 重视,其中日本央行副行长内田真一在周三指出由于国内外金融和资本市场的发展非常不稳定,日本央行目前需要维持 宽松的货币政策利率,目元在亚洲时段一度下跌 2.4%至 147.9。近期全球风险资产震荡源头--- 日元止升回跌，波动率下 降刺激亚太区股市反弹。昨日港股 12 大恒生综合行业分类指数亦全线上升,其中公用事业及能源涨幅居前。恒指权重股 如腾讯〈700 HK)、阿里(9988 HK)、中移动(941 HK)、友邦(1299 HK)、建农工中四大内银都上升,而文旅、消费电子、食 品、制造业相关股份均有较大升幅，如百胜中国(9987 HK)在业绩后股价两天累升 ...

2024 年 8 月 7 日 星期三 每日晨讯 > 每日大市点评 8 月 6 日,港股大盘商开后回落,缺乏向上动能。恒生指数最终下跌 51 点或 0.3%,收报 16,647点。恒生科指微升 0.1%, 收报 3,342 点。大市成交金额减少至 965 多亿港元,港股通净流入 59.89 亿港元。恒指波幅指数下跌 9.1%,但仍处于较 高水平。经历周一的下跌后,大部分板块都有反弹,但反弹力度有所分化,生物医药、教育、光伏或部分服务消费相关 股份的表现较好。电讯、石油、内银、内险及黄金相关股份持续调整。最近人民币经历了一波快速升值,我们认为这波 人民币的拉升主要受到被动升值及以及投资者空仓平仓影响的带动,而非看多基本面而做多人民币。当前国内基本面数 据偏弱的情况下,较低的实际汇率有助提振中国出口,预计当日元波动性减低时,人民币有或再转弱的压力。资金西向 东流的底层驱动力不在于套息交易或海外央行降息带来的流动性边际变化,而在于中国经济本身的基本面。港股近期跌 幅少于海外股市的主因是港股并非套息交易的受惠地，因此受到日元拆仓的影响较笑，但海外市场波动亦会对港股带来 下行压力。但当前全球市场避险情绪仍然偏高,将持续压 ...

2024 年 8 月 2 日 星期五 每日晨讯 > 每日大市点评 8 月 1 日,港股大盘经历周三的反弹后再度回归好谈争持态势,恒生指数全日窄幅波动,最终微跌 39 点或 0.2%,收报 17,304 点。恒生科指下跌 1.1%,收报 3,476 点。大市成交金额减少至 940.5 亿港元,港股通净流入 83.76 亿港元。隔晚 美联储于 7 月 FOMC 维持利率不变,美联储主席鲍威尔放鸽为 9 月降息扫清道路。尽管降息预期强烈,但仍无法刺激港股 大盘进一步向上,再度说明中国基本面是港股的决定性因素。盘面上,航运股、香港本地公用事业、部分工程机械股表 现突出，内地券商股普遍也能承接周三升势。部分内银、内险、互联网、饮料、内房、体育用品股走势疲弱。电能实业 (6 HK)、中电(2 HK)、港灯(2638 HK)等传统高股息本地公用事业股价分别创历史新高、2022年 6 月及 2022年 9 月以来 新高。 宏观动态:7 月 FOMC 美联储维持利率不变,如期释放最快在 9 月降息的信号。鲍威尔指出经济仍然稳健,失业率可能有 所上升但仍然很低，意味着本轮降息空间不会太大。目前利率期货预率 9 月降息 25 个基 ...