Market Overview - On July 30, the Hang Seng Index fell by 347 points or 1.4%, closing at 25,176 points, marking the first drop below the 10-day moving average since July 10[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 2.7%, closing at 5,490 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.5% due to inflows into state-owned enterprises in energy and telecommunications[1] - Market turnover increased to over HKD 319.7 billion, with net inflows of HKD 11.71 billion through the Stock Connect[1] Sector Performance - The volatility index for the Hang Seng Index dropped by 4.6%, indicating low market risk aversion despite the broader market decline[1] - Key sectors such as oil, food and beverage, coal, telecommunications, electricity, and medical devices continued to rise, while HSBC and Hang Seng Bank saw declines of 3.8% and 7.4% respectively after mid-term earnings announcements[1] Macroeconomic Insights - In the U.S., job vacancies fell to 7.437 million in June, with a job vacancy-to-job seeker ratio around 1.06, indicating a moderate labor market slowdown[2] - The labor supply-demand gap in the U.S. has narrowed to 423,000, suggesting limited risk of inflation spirals similar to 2022, which supports the case for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts in September[2] Industry Dynamics - The AI sector, particularly Inspur Digital (596 HK), saw a significant rise of 8.8%, driven by strong cloud service revenue and a return to profitability[3] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.1%, but major companies experienced limited declines, with ongoing support for innovative drug development from the National Healthcare Security Administration[3] Company-Specific Developments - WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) reported a 20.6% increase in revenue to RMB 20.8 billion for the first half of 2025, with Non-IFRS adjusted net profit rising by 44.4% to RMB 6.31 billion[5] - The company’s Tides business saw a remarkable revenue increase of 141.6%, contributing to a 33.5% rise in chemical business revenue[6] - WuXi AppTec announced a mid-term dividend of RMB 3.50 per 10 shares, enhancing market confidence and potentially increasing the dividend yield to over 35% in 2025[7] Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 16.8% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month increase of 4.7%[9] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities rose to 129.8, indicating a growing supply relative to sales, with first-tier cities at 79.6[11] - Land transaction volumes dropped by 48.6% year-on-year, reflecting a significant slowdown in the real estate market[12]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,524 points, down 38 points or 0.2%, after a 1.2% intraday decline, indicating resilience despite early pressure[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.4%, closing at 5,644 points, reflecting a similar trend[1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 267 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 12.72 billion through the Stock Connect, showing strong support[1] Market Trends - Since mid-July, cumulative net inflow through Stock Connect has reached HKD 116 billion over the past 20 trading days, indicating increased investor interest[1] - The market is experiencing a high risk appetite, particularly in the biotech and brokerage sectors, with several biotech stocks hitting new highs[1] Short-term Risks - The Hang Seng Index faces short-term adjustment risks due to three factors: 1. Technical indicators are overbought, with the 50-day and 250-day moving averages at extreme levels of 93%[2] 2. August has historically been a weak month for the index, with an average decline of 2.1% over the past 15 years and a rise rate of only 26.7%[2] 3. The US dollar may rebound, as it has historically increased by an average of 0.1% in August, potentially pressuring emerging markets like Hong Kong[2] Policy Impact - Government policies, such as the implementation of a nationwide childcare subsidy starting January 1, 2025, are expected to boost market sentiment[3] - The healthcare sector saw a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index up 3.8%, driven by strong performances in innovative drugs and medical devices[4] Real Estate Insights - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 16.8% year-on-year, with a total volume of 1.4 million square meters sold, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities rose to 129.8, up from 101.3 a year ago, suggesting increasing supply pressure[7] - Land transaction volumes also dropped significantly, down 48.6% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in real estate development activity[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the real estate sector, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the current market conditions [7]. Core Insights - New home sales continue to decline year-on-year, with a 16.8% drop in the last week compared to the same period last year, indicating a worsening trend in the market [1][14]. - The cumulative transaction volume of new homes in first-tier cities shows a narrowing year-on-year growth rate, with Beijing down 1.6%, Shanghai up 0.6%, Guangzhou up 14.4%, and Shenzhen up 14.3% [2][18]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for commercial housing is rising, with the top ten cities showing a ratio of 129.8, indicating a growing supply relative to sales [3][24]. - Land transaction volume has significantly decreased, with a 48.6% year-on-year drop in the last week, reflecting a challenging environment for land acquisition [4][28]. - The report highlights the recent issuance of the "Housing Rental Regulations" by the State Council, aimed at stabilizing the rental market and promoting high-quality development [5][35]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - The transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities reached 1.4 million square meters, down 16.8% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -26.1%, -6.9%, and -25.2% respectively [1][14]. - Cumulative sales in first-tier cities have shown a decrease, with Beijing at 298 million square meters, Shanghai at 620 million square meters, Guangzhou at 417 million square meters, and Shenzhen at 172 million square meters [2][18]. Inventory and Sales Ratios - The inventory-to-sales ratio for commercial housing in the top ten cities is 129.8, up from 101.3 a year ago, indicating an oversupply situation [3][24]. - First-tier cities have a ratio of 79.6, while second-tier cities have a significantly higher ratio of 217.5 [3][24]. Land Transactions - The land transaction area in 100 major cities was 13.49 million square meters, down 48.6% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 95.5% drop [4][28]. Policy Developments - The "Housing Rental Regulations" aim to standardize rental activities and protect the rights of parties involved, effective from September 15 [5][35]. - Recent policies from various cities, including adjustments to housing loan standards, indicate a focus on stimulating the housing market [36]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rose 3.7%, outperforming the broader market, with state-owned enterprises leading the gains [6][37]. - The report suggests maintaining a watchful stance on investments, particularly favoring quality state-owned and local state-owned developers [7][39].

Market Overview - On July 28, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7% to close at 25,562 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index slightly declined by 0.2% to 5,664 points. The market turnover was HKD 250.3 billion, indicating active trading [1] - The market sentiment remained stable, with net inflows of HKD 9.25 billion through the Stock Connect. Notable stock performances included Alibaba rising by 2.2%, while Netease and Meituan fell by 1.4% and 0.5% respectively [1] Sector Performance Technology and Internet - The technology sector showed mixed performance, with major players like Tencent and JD.com experiencing slight gains, while others like Netease and Meituan faced declines [1] Financial Sector - The financial sector led the market, with AIA rising nearly 5% and China Pacific Insurance increasing by 3.9% [1] Pharmaceutical Sector - Hengrui Medicine surged by 24.5% after announcing a potential USD 12.5 billion licensing agreement with GSK, marking a new high for the stock. Other innovative drug companies like 3SBio and China National Pharmaceutical also saw significant gains of 12% and 7% respectively [1][5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector faced weakness, with major automakers like BYD and Geely declining between 1.1% and 1.9%. New energy vehicle companies also saw declines, while NIO managed a slight increase of 1.3% [4] Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector, particularly the photovoltaic segment, continued its downward trend, with companies like Xinyi Solar and GCL-Poly experiencing declines of 1.2% to 4.9%. Conversely, gas and utility stocks generally rose, with Cheung Kong Infrastructure increasing by 3.1% [6] Macroeconomic Insights - Recent data indicated a 16.8% year-on-year decline in new home sales across 30 major cities, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market. The performance varied across city tiers, with first-tier cities seeing a decline of 26.1% [3] Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the Hong Kong market is gradually shifting towards a "profit-driven" recovery, supported by improving fundamentals and positive policy expectations. The upcoming US-China trade talks are anticipated to reduce uncertainties and potentially bolster market sentiment [2][7]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose 2.3% last week, closing at 25,388 points, marking a three-year high[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.5%, closing at 5,677 points, breaking free from a stagnant period since May[1] - Average daily trading volume increased by 12.6% to HKD 287.9 billion, with net inflows of HKD 32.3 billion through the Stock Connect[1] Sector Analysis - The telecommunications sector was the only one to decline, while the composite, materials, and energy indices rose by 8.8%, 7.7%, and 5.4% respectively[1] - The automotive sector outperformed the market with an average increase of 3.8%, driven by regulatory support for healthy development[4] - The healthcare index rose by 0.8%, benefiting from government support for innovative drugs[4] Economic Indicators - The predicted PE ratio for the Hang Seng Index is at 11.1 times, within the 78.2% percentile over the past seven years, indicating high market sentiment and relative valuation[3] - The weighted risk premium based on 70% US Treasuries and 30% Chinese bonds is at its lowest since January 2021, suggesting a high valuation environment[3] Future Outlook - If trade agreements between the US and Europe materialize, along with domestic policy catalysts, the Hang Seng Index may continue its gradual recovery driven by fundamentals[2] - In the most optimistic scenario, the Hang Seng Index could reach 27,400 points if the Chinese 10-year bond yield is at 1.75% and the US 10-year yield remains at 4.4%[3]

Market Performance - On July 24, the Hang Seng Index rose by 129 points or 0.5%, closing at 25,667 points, marking a five-day winning streak[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.05% to 5,743 points, ending its five-day rise[1] - Market turnover reached HKD 294.8 billion, indicating active trading, with a net inflow of HKD 3.7 billion through the Stock Connect[1] Sector Highlights - The financial sector was a key support, with China Galaxy (6881 HK) and CITIC Securities (6066 HK) rising by 4.4% and 3.9% respectively[1] - China Duty Free (1880 HK) surged by 15% due to positive news regarding Hainan Free Trade Port[1] - Semiconductor stocks remained active, while major tech stocks like Baidu (9888 HK) and Alibaba (9988 HK) saw declines of over 3%[1] Economic Outlook - The overall upward trend in the Hong Kong market is supported by improving fundamentals and positive policy expectations, with a shift from risk aversion to fundamental recovery[2] - Anticipation of trade agreements between the EU and the US is expected to ease global supply chain concerns, potentially benefiting the Hong Kong market[2] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 21.7% year-on-year, although this was an improvement from the previous week's 24.9% decline[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities increased to 105.7, up from 102.2 a year ago, indicating a growing supply relative to sales[7] - Land transaction volume dropped by 62.9% year-on-year, reflecting a significant slowdown in real estate activity[8] Policy and Investment Strategy - The central government's recent urban work conference emphasized support for the real estate sector, although no new major measures were announced[9] - Investment strategies should focus on high-dividend sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and finance, while also considering growth areas like AI and biotechnology[12]

Market Overview - On July 23, the Hang Seng Index rose by 408 points or 1.6%, closing at 25,538 points, marking its highest closing level of the year[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.5%, closing at 5,745 points, with total market turnover reaching HKD 333.1 billion, the highest since April 10[1] - Despite the rise, net outflow from Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 1.319 billion, indicating a lack of broad-based market strength[1] Sector Performance - Major tech stocks drove the index higher, with Tencent (700 HK) up 4.9% to HKD 552, a new high for the year[1] - Other notable gains included Alibaba (9988 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK), which rose between 2.5% and 3.3%[1] - AI and robotics stocks showed strong performance, with companies like UBTECH (9880 HK) rebounding by 5.8% after a recent share placement[4] Economic Dynamics - The Trump administration is shifting from broad tariffs to targeted investment agreements, maintaining at least a 10% baseline tariff while negotiating investment commitments from countries like Japan and the Philippines[3] - This strategy may help control inflationary pressures from imported goods, as certain key agricultural and energy products receive exemptions[3] Real Estate Insights - New home sales in 30 major cities fell to 1.23 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 21.7%, although this was an improvement from the previous week's 24.9% drop[6] - The cumulative transaction volume for new homes in first-tier cities showed mixed results, with Guangzhou up 15.6% year-on-year, while Beijing and Shanghai saw declines[7] Investment Strategy - The overall sentiment in the Hong Kong market remains positive, with expectations of foreign capital inflows potentially accelerating the market's upward momentum[2] - Investors are advised to focus on high-dividend sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and financials while looking for opportunities in growth areas like AI and biomedicine[13]

Market Overview - On July 22, the Hang Seng Index rose by 136 points or 0.5%, closing at 25,130 points, stabilizing above the 25,000 mark[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.4%, closing at 5,606 points, indicating a healthy bullish trend with orderly upward movement and increased trading volume[1] - The total market turnover reached HKD 266.1 billion, maintaining an active level, with a net inflow of HKD 2.72 billion through the Hong Kong Stock Connect[1] Sector Performance - Cyclical high beta sectors performed notably, with sub-sectors such as non-ferrous metals, materials, engineering machinery, electricity, food and beverage, and shipping showing strong upward momentum[1] - The prices of major commodities rose significantly, with coking coal and polysilicon futures increasing by 5.9% to 9.0%, directly boosting related stocks[1] - Key stocks like China Shenhua (1088 HK), Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK), and Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) surged between 4.8% and 8.9%[1] Economic Indicators - The yield on China's 10-year government bonds rose to 1.68%, showing signs of stabilization, which is favorable for stock market performance[1] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index has approached a seven-year historical low, with a forecasted PE ratio of 10.8 times, indicating potential support for the overall market performance[2] Industry Developments - AI sector: UBTECH (9880 HK) announced a placement of 30.15 million new shares, expanding its share capital by 6.4%, raising HKD 2.41 billion for business operations and loan repayment[3] - The electronic sector is set to benefit from the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with expected installed capacity of 60GW-70GW, equivalent to three Three Gorges dams[3] Real Estate Insights - New home transaction volume in 30 major cities reached 1.23 million square meters, down 21.7% year-on-year, but better than the previous week's decline of 24.9%[6] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities increased to 105.7, up from 102.2 year-on-year, indicating a growing supply relative to sales[8] - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 62.9% year-on-year, reflecting a significant slowdown in real estate activity[9]

Market Performance - On July 21, the Hang Seng Index rose by 168 points or 0.7%, closing at 24,944 points, reaching a year-to-date high of 25,010 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.8%, closing at 5,585 points, confirming an upward breakout from the range since May[1] - Market turnover increased to over HKD 263 billion, with net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect at HKD 7.05 billion[1] Sector Highlights - The insurance, brokerage, oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and power sectors performed strongly[1] - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately RMB 1.2 trillion, boosted investor sentiment in related sectors[2] - Shares of Huaxin Cement surged by 85.6%, while leading companies like Conch Cement and China National Building Material rose by 9.0% and 12.6%, respectively[1] Economic Outlook - The hydropower project is expected to directly boost fixed asset investment growth through the cement, engineering machinery, and power equipment sectors, potentially offsetting weaknesses in real estate[2] - The project is anticipated to benefit related stocks over the next decade, as current valuations are considered low[2] Real Estate Market - New home transaction volume in 30 major cities fell by 21.7% year-on-year, with a total of 1.23 million square meters sold[3] - The decline is an improvement from the previous week's 24.9% drop, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.3%[3] AI Sector Developments - UBTECH Robotics won a procurement project in Shanghai worth approximately RMB 90 million, marking the largest disclosed order in the industry[3] - The stock price of UBTECH rose by 5.2% to a one-month high following the announcement[3] Healthcare Sector Insights - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.2%, seen as a normal correction after recent gains[4] - The National Healthcare Security Administration is promoting a comprehensive value assessment for innovative drugs and devices, which is expected to benefit high-value clinical innovations[4]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose 2.8% last week, closing at 24,825 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 5.5% to 5,538 points, breaking out of a stagnation since May[1] - Average daily trading volume decreased by 3.1% to over HKD 246.6 billion, but remains at an active level, with a net inflow of HKD 22.5 billion through the Stock Connect[1] - The real estate sector was the only sector to decline, while healthcare, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors rose by 12.1%, 6.1%, and 3.7% respectively[1] Sector Performance - The information technology sector is expected to see earnings growth of 27.3% and 17.4% over the next two years, with a PE ratio at the 37.5th percentile over the past seven years[1] - The healthcare sector is projected to grow earnings by 83.7% and 21.7% in the next two years, with a PE ratio at the 43.1st percentile, indicating potential for high excess returns in the short term[1] Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth for Q2 2025 is expected to be 5.2%, with a 5.3% growth for the first half of the year, exceeding expectations and potentially reducing the need for aggressive stimulus policies[1] - Despite the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's actions to withdraw HKD from the market, the 1-month HIBOR fell to 1.07%, indicating ample liquidity in the market[1] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a defensive position in high-dividend sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and finance, while looking for opportunities in AI computing, semiconductor equipment, and biomedicine[1] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring changes in U.S. Federal Reserve policies and corporate mid-term earnings guidance for future market direction[1] Industry Dynamics - The AI sector saw a significant rise, with the stock of InnoVision (2121 HK) surging 10% to a three-month high, while Fourth Paradigm (6682 HK) raised HKD 1.3 billion for R&D in smart devices and blockchain[2] - In the automotive sector, Great Wall Motors (2333 HK) reported a 1% increase in revenue but a 10.2% drop in net profit for the first half of the year, underperforming compared to peers like Geely (175 HK)[2] Healthcare Sector Insights - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index surged 11.9% last week, driven by the government's initiation of adjustments to the basic medical insurance drug list, which may benefit innovative drugs[3] - The government's new procurement policies are expected to favor high-quality products, potentially improving the operating environment for leading innovative drug companies[12]