2026 年 1 月 30 日 星期五 每日大市点评 昨日恒生指数与国企股指数分别上涨 0.5%与 0.4%，但恒生科技股指数下跌 1.0%。大型内银、保险、贵金属、石油行业 近期表现强势，另外内地媒体报道，部分房企表示目前已不被监管部门要求每月上报「三条红线」指标。「三条红线」 指为约束房企的过度负债行为，监管层对房企的三项财务指标进行限制：1）剔除预收款后的资产负债率不得超过 70%。 2）净负债率不得超过 100%。3）现金短债比不得小于 1 倍。市场期待监管放宽对房企的约束，很多内房股上涨。 美国股市昨晚三大指数表现不一，道指上涨 0.1%，纳指与标普分别下跌 0.7%与 0.1%。微软（MSFT US）财报云端服务收 入逊预期，拖累纳指表现。恒指夜市期指收报 27,829 点，低水 139 点，我们预计今日恒指整固的可能性较高。 新能源/公用事业：昨日新能源及公用事业港股表现分化。中广核矿业(1164 HK)延续升势，上涨 3.3%。铀价上升至 98 美 元水平的接近两年新高。环保及水务板块也普遍上升。光大环境(257 HK)、北控水务(371 HK)、粤海投资(270 HK)上升 1.1%-4.5 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.1%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.2% and 1.2%, respectively[1] - International oil and gold prices surged, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, leading to gains in leading oil and gold stocks[1] - The latest CCL index reported at 145.54, a weekly increase of 0.63%, indicating a recovery in Hong Kong residential prices[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. durable goods orders for November increased by 5.3%, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast of 3.1% and the previous value of -2.1%[3] - In China, the transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities reached 1.19 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 32.3%[3] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector saw most stocks decline, while Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) rose due to concerns over Nipah virus infections in India[4] - The automotive sector experienced a decline, with January retail sales expected to be around 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 20.4%[5] - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, boosting demand for gold products and leading to gains in related stocks[5]

Market Overview - On January 23, Hong Kong stocks opened higher and fluctuated upwards, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 119 points (0.5%) to close at 26,749 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 35 points (0.6%), closing at 5,798 points, with total market turnover reaching HKD 240.9 billion[1] - Southbound capital experienced a net outflow of HKD 1.6 billion[1] Regulatory Concerns - Chinese regulators are considering tightening the standards for mainland companies issuing shares in Hong Kong due to concerns over the quality of listed companies[1] - Potential measures may include setting a minimum market capitalization requirement for companies applying to list H-shares in Hong Kong[1] Sector Performance - The technology sector showed signs of recovery, with Alibaba (9988 HK) rising by 2.2%, Xiaomi (1810 HK) by 2.8%, and Kuaishou (1024 HK) by 2.7%[1] - The photovoltaic sector surged, with Xinyi Solar (968 HK) increasing by 11.1% and Fuyao Glass (6865 HK) by 10.4% following Tesla CEO Elon Musk's support for space photovoltaics[1] U.S. Market Dynamics - In the U.S., geopolitical tensions and conservative earnings guidance from Intel (INTC US) led to a decline in the Dow Jones Index by 285 points (0.6%) to 49,098 points[2] - The Nasdaq Index rose by 65 points (0.3%) to 23,501 points, while the S&P 500 Index increased by 2 points to 6,915 points[2] - Intel's stock fell by 17% due to supply constraints, while Nvidia (NVDA US) rose by 1.5% on news of Chinese approval for large tech firms to purchase H200 chips[2] Automotive Sector Highlights - The smart driving sector performed well, with Tesla's FSD system set to launch in China next month[3] - GAC Aion and Didi's Robotaxi R2 officially began mass production, and Cao Cao Mobility (2643 HK) plans to deploy 100,000 custom Robotaxis by 2030, with its stock rising by 10.2%[3] Healthcare Sector Insights - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 2.8% last week but rose by 1.1% on Friday[4] - Insilico Medicine (3696 HK) saw a rise after receiving FDA approval for its oral NLRP3 inhibitor for Parkinson's disease treatment[4] - Crystal Technology (2228 HK) reported significant advancements in CAR-T therapy, achieving a 100% complete response rate in lupus patients[4]

2026 年 1 月 23 日 星期五 宏观动态： 中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，2026 年实施适度宽松货币政策，降准降息仍有空间；结构性工具优化：下调再贷款利率 0.25 个百分点、单设 1 万亿民企再贷款、新增 4,000 亿至 1.2 万亿元科创技改再贷款，助力融资成本下行与民企、科 创企业融资。 行业动态： 汽车板块：近期汽车零部件板块景气度较高。敏实集团（425 HK）连续两天拉升，核心驱动力是公司的液冷板块业务与 头部客户合作，已获得 AI 服务器订单并已经开始交付，为公司在汽车零部件业务之外打开第二增长曲线。除此之外，叠 加今年促进汽车消费政策，利好汽车零部件行业。敏实股价两天上涨 23%。 能源/公用事业：昨日新能源及公用事业港股普遍上升。光伏、风电、环保板块表现突出。福莱特玻璃(6865 HK)、龙源 电力(916 HK)、金风科技(2208 HK)、北控水务(371 HK)分别上涨 3.5%、2.3%、6.0%、2.3%。另一方面，近期海外天然 气批发价格上升，原则上影响内地燃气运营商。相对上，气源依赖母公司中国石油(857 HK)的昆仑能源(135 HK)较少受 影响。 医药：恒生医疗保 ...

2026 年 1 月 22 日 星期四 ➢ 每日大市点评 1 月 21 日，周三港股上午小幅调整后下午震荡回升。恒生指数最终涨 97 点（0.4%），收报 26,5857 点；恒生科技指数 涨 62 点（1.1%），收盘报 5,746 点；全天大市成交额 2,505 亿元。南向资金净流入扩大至 138.9 亿元。半导体板块强 势，继续受到美光（MU US）提示存储器短缺或持续至 2028 年的消息提振，华虹半导体（1347 HK）、中芯国际（981 HK） 涨 4%-6%。TCL 电子（1070 HK）公布将与 Sony Corporation （索尼）成立合资公司，承接索尼家庭娱乐业务，由 TCL 电 子持股 51%，索尼持股 49%，在全球范围内开展包括电视剧和家庭影响等产品的研发、制造和销售。TCL 电子周三大涨 14.8%。创维集团（751 HK）宣布将分拆创维光伏股份在香港上升，同时进行股份回购，完成后将撤销上市地位。创维涨 37.5%。地缘政治再次紧张，黄金股普遍向上，灵宝黄金（3330 HK）、招金矿业（1818 HK）涨 5%-8%。短期操作策略， 继续聚焦半导体、黄金等强势板块。 美股方面， ...

Market Overview - On January 20, the Hang Seng Index fell by 76 points (0.3%) to close at 26,487 points, influenced by a decline in technology stocks[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 66 points (1.1%) to close at 5,683 points, with total market turnover reaching HKD 237.8 billion, an increase of HKD 12.1 billion from the previous day[1] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 3.66 billion[1] Sector Performance - Gold and precious metal stocks surged due to international gold prices hitting a record high, with Zijin Mining (2899 HK) up 1.7%, Shandong Gold (1787 HK) up 2.7%, and Zijin Gold International (2259 HK) up 5.5%[1] - Real estate stocks rose as China announced financial measures for the sector, including a 25 basis point cut in the re-lending rate and a reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for commercial real estate from 50% to 30%[1] - Greentown China (3900 HK) increased by 5.6%, China Resources Land (1109 HK) by 3.7%, and China Overseas (688 HK) by 2.6%[1] U.S. Market Reaction - The Dow Jones Index fell by 870 points (1.8%) to close at 48,488 points, while the Nasdaq Index dropped by 561 points (1.5%) to 22,954 points, and the S&P 500 Index decreased by 143 points to 6,796 points[2] - Technology stocks faced significant declines, with Tesla (TSLA US) down 4.2%, Amazon (AMZN US) down 3.4%, and Google (GOOG US) down 2.5%[2] Macroeconomic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the per capita disposable income for residents in 2025 is projected to be RMB 43,377, with a real year-on-year growth of 5%[3] - Urban residents' per capita disposable income is expected to be RMB 56,502, reflecting a real growth of 4.2%, while rural residents' income is projected at RMB 24,456, with a real growth of 6%[3] Industry Developments - Pop Mart (9992 HK) shares rose by 9.1% following the announcement of a share buyback of 1.4 million shares at prices between HKD 177.7 and 181.2, totaling approximately HKD 250 million[4] - Weisheng Holdings (3393 HK) increased by 5.5% amid news of a planned investment of RMB 4 trillion by the State Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] - In the healthcare sector, the Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 0.8%, but Insilico Medicine (3696 HK) rose by 1.9% due to a collaboration agreement with Shenzhen Hengtai Biotechnology[5]

Market Overview - On January 19, Hong Kong stocks showed weak upward momentum, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 281 points (1.1%) to close at 26,563 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 72 points (1.2%), closing at 5,749 points, with total trading volume at HKD 225.7 billion[1] - Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Transsion lowered their annual shipment forecasts, impacting stock prices, with Xiaomi (1810 HK) down 1.7% and Sunny Optical (2382 HK) down 2.3%[1] Sector Performance - The aviation sector strengthened, with Eastern Airlines (670 HK) and Southern Airlines (1055 HK) rising by 6%-9% due to expected record-high passenger transport during the Spring Festival[1] - The power equipment sector benefited from a planned investment of HKD 4 trillion by the State Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with stocks like Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) and Harbin Electric (1133 HK) increasing by 5%-6%[1] Macroeconomic Insights - The GDP growth for Q4 2025 is projected at 4.5%, with an annual growth rate of 5.0%, meeting expectations[2] - Exports for 2025 are expected to increase by 5.5%, despite a 20% decline in exports to the U.S., showing resilience with an annual trade surplus of USD 1.2 trillion, a historical high[2] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment fell by 36.9% year-on-year to RMB 419.7 billion, a larger decline than November's 31.4%[3] - New housing starts decreased by 19.3% to 53.13 million square meters, while the average price index for new residential properties in 70 cities dropped by 3.0% year-on-year[3] Industry Developments - The automotive sector saw Chery Automobile (9973 HK) rise by 4.5% after announcing its AI strategy, marking a shift towards smart vehicles[4] - The renewable energy sector is encouraged to adopt zero-carbon practices, with companies like CIMC Enric (3899 HK) expected to benefit from new policies[4] Pharmaceutical Sector - Most pharmaceutical stocks declined alongside the Hang Seng Index, but leading reproductive health company Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK) rose by 5.3%[5] - The number of newborns is projected to drop from 9.54 million in 2024 to 7.92 million in 2025, prompting government support for childbirth[5]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,845 points, down 0.3%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.5% to 9,221 points[1] - Total turnover in the Hong Kong market was HKD 255.1 billion, a decrease of 12.2% from HKD 290.5 billion the previous Thursday[1] - Blue-chip stocks like Techtronic Industries (669 HK) and Li Ning (2331 HK) rose by 4.9% and 4.3%, respectively, while Pop Mart (9992 HK) and Alibaba Health (241 HK) fell by 5.6% and 5.2%[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. NAHB housing market index for January was reported at 37, below last week's 39 and market expectations of 40[3] Sector Performance - In the automotive sector, AI-related stocks surged, with Cao Cao Chuxing (2643 HK) and Hesai (2525 HK) rising by 10.9% and 5.6% respectively[4] - The heavy truck sector benefited from a subsidy policy, with China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (3808 HK) and Weichai Power (2338 HK) increasing by 3%-4%[4] - Pop Mart faced allegations of labor exploitation, leading to a 5.6% drop in its stock price, marking a cumulative decline of 48% from its peak[4] Energy Sector Developments - The electricity equipment sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) and Harbin Electric (1133 HK) rising by 4.9% and 5.8% respectively[5] - The State Grid announced an expected fixed asset investment of RMB 4 trillion during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with an increased target price of HKD 12.34, reflecting a potential upside of 13.5% based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 times FY26 earnings [1][7]. Core Insights - Recent breakthroughs in several innovative business areas, such as the launch of the Guangdong Zhanjiang green methanol project, significant revenue and orders in aerospace storage equipment, and investments in nuclear fusion energy, are expected to support long-term growth and higher valuations for the company [1][2][4]. - The green methanol project, which has an annual capacity of 50,000 tons, is China's first commercial-scale production of bio-methanol, utilizing low-cost agricultural waste as raw materials [2]. - The aerospace storage equipment segment is projected to generate over RMB 100 million in revenue and orders by 2025, supplying various domestic and international aerospace entities [3]. - The company has invested RMB 1 billion in a nuclear fusion energy enterprise, indicating a strategic move towards future energy solutions [4]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of RMB 23.626 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to RMB 27.235 billion by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 10% [6]. - Shareholder net profit is expected to rise from RMB 1.114 billion in 2023 to RMB 1.225 billion in 2025, marking an 11.9% growth [6]. - Earnings per share are forecasted to increase from RMB 0.55 in 2023 to RMB 0.60 in 2025, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings ratio from 18.0 to 16.6 [6].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,999.8 points, up 0.6%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.3% to 9,315.6 points[1] - Trading volume increased to HKD 340.4 billion, an 8.0% rise from the previous day's HKD 315.2 billion, indicating a potential portfolio reallocation by investors[1] - Non-essential consumer, healthcare, and materials sectors saw increases of 2.2%, 1.3%, and 1.0% respectively, while utilities, industrials, and financials declined by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2%[1] Stock Performance - Alibaba Health (241 HK) and Haidilao (6862 HK) led the gainers, rising 19.0% and 9.2% respectively[1] - Ctrip Group (9961 HK) and Xinyi Glass (868 HK) were the biggest losers, falling 6.5% and 3.9% respectively[1] Regulatory Developments - Ctrip Group is under investigation for alleged monopolistic practices, which may benefit the industry by ensuring better protection for businesses and consumers in the long run[1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved an increase in the minimum financing margin ratio from 80% to 100%, aimed at reducing leverage and promoting market stability[1] Macro Dynamics - China's exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year, surpassing November's 5.9% and market expectations of 3.0%[3] - U.S. retail sales rose by 0.6% in November, better than October's decline of 0.1% and exceeding the forecast of 0.4%[3] Industry Insights - Macau's gaming revenue is projected to grow by 15%-20% year-on-year in January, with a strong start in the first week showing an 18% increase[4] - China Biologic Products (1177 HK) announced a maximum acquisition price of RMB 1.2 billion for Hejiya, focusing on innovative drug development in metabolic diseases[5] - The healthcare index rose by 1.3%, with China Biologic Products increasing by 2.9% following the acquisition announcement[5]