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2024在工作场所使用人工智能:机会、风险和政策应对措施(英)
OECD· 2024-05-28 01:25
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The rapid development and adoption of AI technologies in the workplace present both opportunities and risks for policymakers and workers alike [4][5] - AI has the potential to significantly enhance productivity and job quality, with surveys indicating that 80% of AI users report improved performance and 60% report increased job enjoyment [5][9] - However, there are substantial concerns regarding job displacement, wage reduction, and increased work intensity due to AI implementation [6][11] Summary by Sections Introduction and Purpose - Policymakers globally are addressing the swift advancements in AI technologies and their integration into workplaces, affecting all sectors and occupations [4] Opportunities and Benefits - AI can enhance worker performance and job satisfaction, with 80% of workers acknowledging improvements in their work due to AI [5] - The unequal access to AI may exacerbate disparities among firms and workers, highlighting the need for equitable AI adoption [5] Risks and Concerns - A significant portion of the workforce (60%) fears job loss to AI within the next decade, and 40% anticipate wage reductions in their sectors [6] - Concerns also include increased work intensity, data privacy issues, and potential biases in AI systems [6][37] Policy Gaps and Recommendations - There is a lack of concrete action plans for skills development related to AI, with existing programs often focusing narrowly on digital skills [14][15] - Recommendations include monitoring AI's impact on labor markets, anticipating future skill needs, and providing adequate social protection for displaced workers [15][21] Specific Risks Identified - **Automation and Job Displacement**: AI poses risks to high-skilled jobs, with 27% of total employment in occupations at high risk of automation [11][14] - **Rising Inequality**: Disparities in AI access can lead to increased inequality in the labor market [16][21] - **Occupational Health and Safety**: AI can both improve and pose new risks to worker health and safety [22][25] - **Privacy Breaches**: Increased data collection through AI raises significant privacy concerns among workers [27][30] - **Bias and Discrimination**: AI systems can perpetuate existing biases if not properly designed [37][40] - **Lack of Autonomy**: AI can limit workers' autonomy and agency, impacting their professional identity [43][46] - **Lack of Transparency and Explainability**: Workers often struggle to understand AI decision-making processes, leading to distrust [48][51] - **Lack of Accountability**: Unclear lines of accountability for AI systems complicate regulatory enforcement [55][57] - **Challenges to Social Dialogue**: The introduction of AI can create information asymmetries between employers and workers [58][60] Conclusions - Continuous monitoring of AI risks and policy responses is essential to address the fast-evolving landscape of AI in the workplace [64]
基于和DCF定价模型的策略框架A股投资启示录
OECD· 2024-05-27 13:11
我是张任劝特别分析师张夏不好意思刚才那个系统出了点问题然后这个刚刚接接入了啊登录的时候出现了一个软件突然假死的情况今天呢我们是汇报一篇之前写了一篇新的报告这个也是我们对风格A股风格的一个理解的一个新的一篇报告 那么众所周知就是A股呢他在做投资的时候最重要的他不是去择时看多或看空嗯行业比较也非常重要但是其实呢就是在做行业比较过程当中呢呃不同的行业就明显的这种属性啊那么把这种属性的核子呢我们把它叫风格实际上我们所有的这个A股啊最重要的一件事情呢是把这个风格或者说资产类型呢给他搞清楚啊这个是事半功倍的 就是说你天天在外面调研啊或者研究啊5000多家上公司你肯定都不可能都研究的完对吧那你研究哪些公司才是有价值的那这个就是需要一套方法论去指导啊也就是说到底我应该在什么时候去选择一个什么样类型的公司那么今天呢我们来讨论一下一种新的资产类型啊就是基于这个FCF和ROE以及DCF的定价模型的策略框架 而这些词看起来有点唬人啊但其实都是我们平时经常用的一些啊比较基本的概念呃这个FCF呢就是自由限流free cash flow它的核心啊这个大家应该都一般都比较清楚啊就是把这个企业赚得的经营性限流金额减去必要的基本开支和一些正常的 ...