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2025年银行业及资本市场展望2025
Deloitte· 2025-02-05 03:05
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking industry Core Insights - The banking industry faces significant challenges in adapting to a low-growth, low-interest-rate environment, with management under pressure due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [5][8] - Non-interest income is expected to become a key growth driver as net interest income faces downward pressure due to rising deposit costs [5][14] - The implementation of AI-driven banking strategies is seen as a potential accelerator for technological modernization [67][70] Summary by Sections 2025 Macroeconomic Changes Impacting Global Banking - The US economy is projected to experience a soft landing with GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025, influenced by consumer spending and rising unemployment [5] - Inflation is expected to approach the 2% target, leading to potential interest rate cuts [5][6] Basel III "Final" Rule Proposals Impact - The new Basel III proposals aim to lower capital requirements, potentially strengthening the overall performance of the banking sector [35][36] - The proposals suggest a tiered regulatory approach based on bank size, impacting capital requirements for large banks [35][36] Increasing Non-Interest Income - Banks are encouraged to diversify their revenue streams by focusing on non-interest income, which has historically accounted for about 35% of total income [47][48] - Strategies include enhancing retail banking services, expanding payment services, and improving wealth management offerings [48][49] Retail Banking - Service fees from retail banking are a significant source of non-interest income, but regulatory pressures may limit future growth [51] - Banks should consider innovative pricing strategies and service bundling to enhance fee income [51] Payment Services - Payment companies are facing challenges from declining transaction margins and increased regulatory scrutiny [53] - Strategies to increase fee income include enhancing transaction security and offering additional value-added services [54] Wealth Management - Wealth management firms are under pressure to reduce fees while enhancing service offerings to retain clients [58][63] - Emphasizing personalized consulting services and integrating additional financial planning services can help increase revenue [63] Investment Banking and Capital Markets - Capital market revenues are expected to rise due to increased M&A activity and demand from private equity firms [65] - Banks are exploring unconventional methods to enhance service fees, such as increasing breakage fees and targeting smaller transactions [65] AI-Driven Banking Strategy - The adoption of AI technologies is anticipated to transform banking services and improve profitability [69][70] - Addressing technological debt and modernizing data infrastructure are critical for successful AI implementation [71][72]
2025年银行业及资本市场展望:适应低增长低利率环境,以业务创新和成本管控夯实可持续增长根基
Deloitte· 2025-01-21 06:24
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking industry Core Insights - The banking industry faces significant challenges in adapting to a low-growth, low-interest-rate environment, with management under pressure due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [5][31] - Non-interest income is expected to become a key growth driver as net interest income faces downward pressure due to rising deposit costs [5][14] - The implementation of AI-driven banking strategies is seen as a potential accelerator for technological modernization [67][70] Summary by Sections 2025 Macroeconomic Changes Impacting Global Banking - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at 2.7% in 2024 but slow to 1.5% in 2025, with inflation pressures easing [5] - Consumer debt reached a record high of $17.7 trillion, impacting consumer spending [5] - The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates three to four times in 2025, with the effective federal funds rate expected to fall to between 3.5% and 3.75% [5][6] Basel III "Final" Rule Proposals Impact on Banking - The new Basel III proposals aim to reduce capital requirements, potentially strengthening the overall performance of the banking sector [35] - Global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) may see an increase in common equity tier 1 capital by 9% under the new rules [35][36] - The proposals suggest a more lenient regulatory environment, which could lead to increased merger and acquisition activity among smaller banks [35][36] Increasing Non-Interest Income in 2025 - Banks are encouraged to focus on increasing non-interest income due to anticipated declines in net interest income [47][48] - Strategies include bundling services in retail banking, expanding payment services, and enhancing wealth management offerings [48][50][57] Investment Banking and Capital Markets - Capital market revenues are expected to rise due to a recovery in M&A activity and increased demand from private equity firms [65] - Banks are exploring unconventional methods to enhance service fee income, such as increasing contract termination fees [65] AI-Driven Banking Strategy Implementation - The adoption of AI technologies is projected to significantly enhance profitability in the banking sector, with potential profits reaching $2 trillion by 2028 [69] - Banks must address technological debt to fully leverage AI capabilities and modernize their infrastructure [70][71]
AI时代的抉择:以“信”筑基,行稳“智”远
Deloitte· 2025-01-21 02:56
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing trustworthy AI solutions through effective governance, highlighting that over 90% of organizations in the Asia-Pacific region need to improve their AI governance practices [4][9][35]. Summary by Sections Report Overview - The report aims to provide insights for executives and technology leaders in the Asia-Pacific region to improve governance structures and develop more trustworthy AI solutions [4][6]. Addressing Risks of Rapid AI Adoption - The rapid adoption of AI is transforming the business landscape in the Asia-Pacific region, with AI investment expected to quadruple to $117 billion by 2030 [12]. - Over half of technology workers believe their organizations cannot effectively manage AI-related risks, with concerns primarily around security vulnerabilities (86%), monitoring (83%), and privacy (83%) [9][12][15]. - The report indicates that more than a quarter of organizations experienced an increase in AI-related incidents over the past year [10]. Path to Excellent AI Governance - The Deloitte High Trust AI Framework outlines seven essential elements for establishing trustworthiness in AI solutions: transparency, explainability, fairness, neutrality, robustness, reliability, privacy protection, security, accountability, and responsibility [5][19]. - The report introduces the AI Governance Maturity Index, which assesses organizations' AI governance maturity across five pillars: organizational structure, policies and principles, procedures and controls, talent and skills, and monitoring, reporting, and evaluation [24][26]. Current State of AI Governance in the Asia-Pacific Region - Less than 10% of organizations in the Asia-Pacific region have the necessary governance structures for trustworthy AI, with 91% of organizations at either "beginner" or "developing" levels [35][36]. - The report highlights significant improvement opportunities in the "policies and principles" and "procedures and controls" areas, where 31% and 23% of organizations are at the "beginner" level, respectively [35][38]. Benefits of Excellent AI Governance - Organizations can gain substantial benefits from improving AI governance maturity, including increased trust in AI outputs, enhanced organizational reputation, and accelerated deployment of AI solutions [79][80]. - Effective AI governance can lead to a higher likelihood of using AI solutions across various business areas, with mature organizations using AI tools significantly more than those at lower maturity levels [83][84].
2024中国高科技高成长50强及明日之星报告:逐新求质,超越增长
Deloitte· 2025-01-20 00:09
Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of "new quality productivity development" in building a modern industrial system, indicating a positive outlook for high-tech and high-growth companies in China [2][3]. Core Insights - The theme of the 2024 Deloitte China High-Tech High-Growth 50 and Tomorrow's Stars project is "Pursuing New Quality, Surpassing Growth," encouraging companies to integrate disruptive technological innovations with new industries, models, and formats [2][3]. - The report highlights that 2024's top 50 companies experienced a slight decline in revenue scale compared to 2023, with 44% of the companies having revenue exceeding 100 million [3][29]. - The life sciences sector leads the industry distribution, accounting for 39% of the top companies, surpassing hardware and software sectors [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Project Background - The Deloitte High-Tech High-Growth project has a 30-year history and aims to recognize and celebrate outstanding companies in China that demonstrate continuous growth and innovation [9][10]. - The project includes various rankings, such as the National 50 and Regional 20, with participants automatically becoming candidates for higher accolades [10][18]. 2. Overview of the 2024 Top 50 and Tomorrow's Stars - The report lists 100 companies, with Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou accounting for 59% of the total [3][21]. - The average three-year revenue growth rate for the top 50 companies is 588%, showing a significant decline from previous years [29][30]. 3. CEO Survey Analysis - A majority of the top 50 and Tomorrow's Stars companies plan to invest heavily in artificial intelligence and machine learning, with over 50% of their revenue allocated to R&D [71][75]. - The report indicates that 81% of the top 50 companies and 71% of Tomorrow's Stars have R&D personnel accounting for over 40% of their workforce [71][72]. 4. Pursuing New Quality, Surpassing Growth - The report discusses the need for companies to focus on innovation and growth amidst global economic uncertainties, with 80% of CEOs planning to revise their business strategies to enhance AI integration [100].
“2024德勤中国高科技高成长50强及明日之星”榜单揭晓
Deloitte· 2025-01-17 00:08
逐新求质,超越增长 2024中国高科技高成长50强及 明日之星报告 2025年1月 前 言 © 2025。欲了解更多信息,请联系德勤中国。 逐新求质,超越增长 3 01 德勤高科技高成长项目背景 "以科技创新引领新质生产力发展,建设现代化产业体系"是2024年中央经济工作会议确定的2025年9大重点任务之一。与2023年中央 经济工作会议提出的"以科技创新引领现代化产业体系建设"相比较,一个新变化就在于更加强调"新质生产力发展"在建设现代化产 业体系中的重要作用。德勤高科技高成长项目拥有30年历史积淀,被誉为"全球高成长企业的标杆",旨在发掘和表彰中国持续成长、 不断创新、积极承担社会责任的卓越企业。于2024年6月启动的"2024德勤中国高科技高成长50强及明日之星"项目的主题是:"逐新 求质、超越增长",鼓励中国科创企业一方面推动颠覆性科技创新与新产业、新模式、新业态的深度融合,不断逐新求质;另一方面统 筹把握当前和长远的关系,构建内在韧性和发展活力,实现高质量超越式增长。 在此,我们很荣幸与各位分享第二十届"中国高科技高成长50强及明日之星"榜单及CEO调查问卷的结果。今年上榜企业共100家,北京、 深 ...
开放创新的亚洲繁荣发展的世界
Deloitte· 2025-01-10 08:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the Asian economy, predicting growth acceleration in 2018 despite previous concerns about a slowdown [12][16]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic conditions in major Asian economies, such as China and India, are increasingly favorable for economic growth due to structural reforms and stability [12][20]. - Infrastructure spending is highlighted as a key driver for both short-term economic activity and long-term productivity growth across the region [25][31]. - The ongoing global demand recovery is expected to provide significant momentum for trade-driven economies in Asia, benefiting exports [32][46]. Summary by Sections Domestic Conditions - Many Asian economies are experiencing a rebound in domestic demand, with internal trade being a major driver of export growth [13][20]. - Structural reforms in countries like India and China are yielding positive results, enhancing the overall business environment [20][21]. Infrastructure Investment - Governments across Asia are committing substantial funds to infrastructure projects, particularly in transportation, which will stimulate economic activity [25][34]. - China's Belt and Road Initiative is a significant infrastructure project aimed at improving trade links between Asia and Europe, with several agreements already signed [25][73]. Global Demand Recovery - The global economy is showing signs of recovery, with over 75% of economies experiencing growth, which is expected to accelerate [32][33]. - The report notes that the revival of global trade is benefiting Asian manufacturers, with increased demand for exports [46][47].
2025年商业地产行业展望:迎接发展拐点,把握时代机遇
Deloitte· 2025-01-10 03:31
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the commercial real estate industry, suggesting a potential recovery in 2025 after two years of revenue decline and expenditure cuts [4][10]. Core Insights - The commercial real estate sector is expected to experience a turning point in 2025, driven by economic recovery and a shift in investment strategies towards sustainable and technology-driven solutions [4][20]. - A significant majority of respondents (88%) anticipate an increase in revenue for 2024, marking a notable shift in sentiment compared to previous years [10]. - The report highlights the importance of adapting to emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, and the need for companies to enhance their digital capabilities [4][10]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Growth and Inflation - The rebound of the commercial real estate industry is closely tied to global interest rate trends, with expectations of a more stable economic environment in the next 12 to 18 months [7][9]. - Economic growth forecasts for various regions indicate a mixed recovery, with the U.S. expected to see a decline in GDP growth rate by 1.3 percentage points in 2025 [8][9]. Investment Focus Areas for 2025 - Respondents indicated a shift in focus towards high-growth segments such as industrial/manufacturing real estate, multi-family housing, and logistics/warehouse properties, reflecting changing market dynamics [20][30]. - The report notes that 68% of respondents expect improvements in capital costs and availability, a significant increase from previous years [21][25]. Climate Resilience and Financial Viability - The report emphasizes the need for deep energy retrofits in existing buildings to meet climate goals, with 76% of respondents planning such initiatives in the next 12 to 18 months [49][50]. - There is a growing recognition of the financial implications of sustainability strategies, with 36% of respondents adopting a balanced approach to sustainable investments [51][53]. Talent Attraction and AI Readiness - The commercial real estate industry is focusing on attracting the next generation of talent by addressing their concerns and enhancing skill development [4][20]. - The readiness to embrace artificial intelligence solutions is seen as crucial for the industry's transformation, with a majority of respondents indicating plans to invest in data and technology [10][19].
2025年技术趋势
Deloitte· 2025-01-07 05:58
2025 年技术趋势 在德勤第十六年度科技趋势报告中,人工 智能几乎贯穿了每一个趋势。未来,它将 成为我们所有工作的基础结构的一部分。 2025 年技术趋势 i 02 . . . 执行摘要 目录 05 . . . INTRODUCTION AI 无处不在 : 像魔法 , 但有算法 09 . . . 交互 空间计算占据中心舞台 17 . . . 信息 AI 的下一步是什么 ? 27 . . . Computation 硬件正在吞噬世界 技术业务 37 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 新的数学 : 在量子时代解决密码学 网络和信任 53. 智能核心 : AI 为核心现代化改变一切 核心现代化 60 . . . Conclusion 广度是新的深度 : 有意相交 ...
2025技术趋势报告&空间计算、人工智能、IT升级(中文版)
Deloitte· 2025-01-06 03:40
Tech Trends 2025 In Deloitte's 16th annual Tech Trends report, 在德勤(Deloitte)的第16份年度科技趋势 2025年技术趋势 报告中,人工智能是几乎所有趋势的共同 AI is the common thread of nearly every trend. Moving forward, it will be part of the substructure of everything we do. 主线。展望未来,它将成为我们一切工作 的一部分。 德勤。 洞察力 i Tech Trends 2025 | 02 . . . Executive summary | | | --- | --- | | 02..行动纲要 | | | INTRODUCTION 介绍 | Table of contents | | 05 . . . AI everywhere: Like magic, but with algorithms | | | 05...尔无处不在:像魔术一样,但有算法 | | | INTERACTION | | | 互动 09 . . . ...
2025年投资管理行业展望2024
Deloitte· 2024-12-30 08:55
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The investment management industry is expected to face significant risks and opportunities in 2025, with a focus on revenue growth, process efficiency, and risk management as key priorities for management [4] - The integration of emerging technologies like generative AI is anticipated to enhance efficiency and yield substantial returns for institutions that effectively adopt these technologies [4] - The shift towards low-cost funds is becoming the norm, with active ETFs emerging as a new home for active products [15][31] - The report highlights the importance of diversifying product lines by incorporating alternative investment products and leveraging technology investments to integrate AI into sales and distribution strategies [15][52] Summary by Sections Current Performance Trends Indicating Structural Adjustments - The investment management industry has experienced mixed results, with alternative investment inflows slowing and mutual funds continuing to see outflows, while ETFs are gaining momentum [23] - In the past five years, passive ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of $2.5 trillion, with a CAGR of 18%, while active mutual funds have faced cumulative net outflows of $2.6 trillion [24][25] - The rise of low-cost ETFs is significantly impacting the market share of mutual funds, with a notable shift of funds from mutual funds to ETFs due to their flexibility, transparency, and tax efficiency [25][26] Product and Distribution Innovations Driving Asset Management Growth - The report emphasizes that the most effective revenue growth strategies include adding alternative investment products and integrating AI technology into sales and distribution [15][52] - Private credit assets are experiencing double-digit growth, with their scale exceeding $2.1 trillion in 2023, indicating a strong demand for alternative investments [36] - The report notes that traditional and alternative investment management companies are increasingly collaborating with third-party research platforms to provide educational resources for financial advisors [39] AI Deployment from Concept to Practice - Investment management companies are actively developing generative AI solutions to enhance operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [66] - The report identifies that while many firms are exploring AI applications, only 11% have implemented them on a large scale, indicating room for growth in AI utilization [40] - Successful AI deployment requires a focus on practicality, risk assessment, and the integration of AI into existing operational frameworks [67]