技术趋势2026 C Deloitte. Insights | 执行摘要 | 02 | | --- | --- | | 创新的复合效应 | 04 | | 物理AI：探索AI和机器人的融合 | 09 | | 未雨绸缪：为数字员工做好准备 | 21 | | 积极反思:优化AI基础设施策略 | 33 | | 脱胎换骨：重构一个AI原生技术组织 | 43 | | 走出困境：使用Al进行网络防御 | ਦੇਤੋ | | 拨开迷雾：Al进阶过程中值得追踪的技术趋势 | 62 | 盘 网 深 技术趋势2026 | 执行摘要 执行摘要 去年的《技术趋势》报告预测，Al将如同电力一 般，成为一种基础要素，无缝融入各类产品和服务 之中。今年这份《技术趋势》报告（第17版年度报 告）印证了这一假设。如今，企业技术的各个领域 都受到Al的影响，对智能运营的需求影响着从计算 硬件到实体机器人技术等方方面面的决策。去年, 企业的重点在于开展概念验证项目和探索技术的潜 创新的复舍效应聚焦于技术的规模化应用。 餐術领导智能曲酮在冷却骚疹的胸神拳密隔酒造 磨段圈興樓轉。 籍展終募争年歲式萊薩廟两족用劍帳劑自己纳化角 新和曲龟撸速揭到00万用户则 ...

2026年生命科学行业展望 2026年生命科学行业展望 | 市场情绪因受访者所处区域和细分领域而异 市场情绪因受访者所处区域和细分领域而异 生命科学行业高管认为企业财务前景比较乐观，但需在复杂国际局势中增强韧性 2026年生命科学行业展望 生命科学行业的"无国界属性"或许日益凸显，但行业信心却出现分化。德勤《2026 年生命科学行业展望调研》显示，超过75% 的生物制药与医疗科技行业受访高管对企业 来年的财务前景抱有信心；但仅41% 的受访者对全球经济的健康程度持乐观态度。 未来一年，能够在"把握全球发展趋势"与"增强本地运营韧性"间实现平衡的企业或 将脱颖而出――既需大胆布局人工智能与新兴技术，也需具备灵活应对监管及经济变化 的能力。 为深入了解行业关注重点，德勤美国健康解决方案中心联合德勤全球，于2025 年8-9 月开展了第四次年度生命科学行业展望调研。本次调研覆盖280 位来自美国、欧洲（法 国、德国、瑞士、英国）及亚洲（中国、日本）的生物制药与医疗科技企业高管；同时 结合对多位行业领袖的深度访谈，进一步丰富了调研洞察。（详见《调研方法》部分） 整体而言，多数受访行业领导者认为，2026 年的实质性转 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) industry Core Insights - The gap between the ideal and reality in AI applications will narrow by 2026, driven by the solidification of foundational capabilities rather than flashy new models [3] - The TMT sector is expected to surpass all other industries in terms of scale, value, and economic growth contribution, as other sectors leverage TMT capabilities for their own innovation and efficiency [4] - Over half of the 13 key themes in the report focus on AI, emphasizing the importance of scaling AI applications and the need for practical groundwork such as data governance and compliance management [5] Summary by Sections AI-Driven Cross-Industry Transformation - The report predicts a shift from "software disrupting the world" to "AI, particularly agentic AI, disrupting the world" by 2026 [4] - AI data center spending is currently a significant contributor to GDP growth in the U.S., with TMT sector market capitalization nearing 53% of the S&P 500 [4] Generative AI and Agentic AI - Generative AI is expected to be one of the most influential technologies, with its integration into mainstream applications leading to a user base expansion that surpasses standalone applications [7][27] - By 2026, the daily usage of generative AI in embedded applications is projected to be three times higher than that of standalone tools [27] AI Computing Demand - By 2026, inference will account for two-thirds of all AI computing capacity, with a significant portion still relying on high-cost, high-power AI chips in data centers [8][53] - The market for inference-optimized chips is expected to exceed $50 billion by 2026, indicating a growing demand for specialized computing solutions [53] Autonomous AI Agents - The market for autonomous AI agents is projected to reach $8.5 billion by 2026, with potential growth to $45 billion by 2030 if companies effectively manage coordination challenges [9] Robotics and Drones - The cumulative installation of industrial robots is expected to reach 5.5 million units by 2026, with a potential doubling of annual shipments by 2030 driven by labor shortages and advancements in AI capabilities [10] SaaS and AI Integration - The integration of agentic AI into SaaS platforms is anticipated to fundamentally change how businesses procure and utilize software, leading to more intelligent and adaptive applications by 2026 [11] Semiconductor Supply Chain - The report highlights the increasing urgency for companies to enhance supply chain resilience amid trade restrictions affecting next-generation AI chip technologies [12] Short Video Content Evolution - The micro-drama format is reshaping global viewing habits, with revenue from in-app micro-dramas expected to double to $7.8 billion by 2026 [13] Podcasting Trends - Video podcasts are expected to generate approximately $5 billion in annual advertising revenue by 2026, reflecting a nearly 20% year-over-year growth [15] Sovereign Technology Initiatives - Countries are increasingly focused on building sovereign technology and AI infrastructure, which is expected to accelerate investments in cloud computing, semiconductors, and AI models over the next decade [16] Satellite Internet Developments - The report forecasts that spending on direct-to-device satellite network infrastructure will grow to between $6 billion and $8 billion by 2026, driven by the deployment of low Earth orbit satellites [20] Mobile User Trends - By 2026, the importance of mobile operators' reward programs may rival that of network performance in developed markets, indicating a shift in consumer priorities [21]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a dual scenario for the investment management industry in 2026, with profit growth under pressure and unprecedented opportunities for differentiated competition [4]. Core Insights - The investment management industry is at a critical turning point, with increasing cost pressures and the rapid development of AI reshaping the boundaries between active and passive management, as well as between public and private markets [6][11]. - Active ETFs are gaining popularity, with their net inflows in the U.S. increasing from 1% in 2014 to 26% in 2024, indicating a shift towards investment tools that combine professional active management with ETF structures [7]. - The private equity fundraising landscape has seen a decline, with total fundraising down by about one-third from its peak in 2021, but regulatory changes may provide new opportunities for growth [10][19]. - Hedge funds are showing signs of recovery, with sustained inflows indicating a rebound in investor confidence, particularly in a volatile market environment [11]. - Regulatory reforms are expected to ease access to private markets and drive product innovation, with a focus on cross-industry collaboration becoming a key opportunity [16][19]. - The demand for talent is shifting towards digital capabilities and product specialization, with a notable increase in recruitment for roles requiring AI expertise [25][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The investment management industry is experiencing a fundamental restructuring, with a convergence of active and passive investment strategies and the emergence of hybrid products [6][14]. Regulatory Changes - Regulatory reforms are anticipated to relax private market access restrictions, fostering product innovation and expanding the asset allocation framework for investors [16][19]. Talent Strategy - Institutions are re-evaluating their talent strategies to emphasize digital literacy and product expertise, reflecting the evolving demands of modern investment strategies [25][27]. AI Integration - The report highlights a transition from isolated AI pilot projects to enterprise-level applications, with many firms beginning to see tangible returns on their AI investments [37][41]. Future Outlook - The report outlines three key action paths for investment management firms to achieve growth and scale by 2026: prudent product architecture selection, talent transformation, and establishing scalable AI operational models [43][46].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive parts retail industry. Core Insights - The automotive parts retail industry is undergoing a transformation, blending traditional retail with technology, necessitating strategic adjustments to remain competitive [4][9]. - Six forces are identified that may reshape consumer-facing companies, indicating unprecedented speed of change in the automotive parts retail sector [5][7]. - Retailers must balance immediate actions with long-term business model choices to ensure future success [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Challenges - The automotive parts retail sector faces fragmentation, with diverse consumer segments influenced by unique values and purchasing behaviors [15][16]. - Retailers must adapt to a complex landscape characterized by increased competition from national chains, online marketplaces, and direct sales manufacturers [4][14]. Consumer Future - The shift towards highly interconnected and digitally savvy consumers is driving retailers to enhance service levels and provide seamless omnichannel experiences [10][11]. - Environmental concerns and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) are prompting retailers to prioritize sustainability and transparency in their offerings [12][33]. Strategic Imperatives - Retailers should create interconnected customer journeys through AI-driven personalized experiences and robust digital infrastructures [36][37]. - Embracing technology is crucial for optimizing operations, enhancing customer interactions, and maintaining competitiveness in a rapidly evolving market [23][25]. Supply Chain Resilience - The industry must focus on building supply chain resilience and agility to navigate geopolitical tensions and market complexities [44][30]. - Implementing data-driven logistics and diversified sourcing strategies can help mitigate risks and improve operational efficiency [28][29]. Embracing Change - The rise of electric vehicles and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) necessitates a shift in inventory strategies and service offerings [34][35]. - Retailers should leverage AI and predictive analytics to enhance demand forecasting and inventory management, ensuring they meet evolving consumer needs [47][50]. Community and Loyalty - Building community around automotive lifestyles can foster customer loyalty and brand engagement, moving beyond mere transactions [55][58]. - Retailers should create lifestyle experiences that resonate with diverse consumer interests, enhancing long-term relationships and brand loyalty [56][59].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking industry in 2025 [2] Core Insights - The Chinese banking industry is expected to achieve growth in performance and risk control in 2025, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and coordinated monetary and fiscal policies [9][14] - The banking sector is facing challenges such as narrowing net interest margins, rising non-performing loans, and increased competition from fintech companies [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of digital transformation and refined management in retail banking, as well as the need for banks to adapt to new consumer demands [11][14] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic and Financial Situation Review - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3%, outperforming market expectations, driven by a recovery in consumption and investment [9][21] - The global economic recovery remains uneven, with geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures posing challenges [8][19] - Domestic policies have focused on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing expectations, with a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [9][10] Performance Analysis of Listed Banks - In the first half of 2025, the total assets of commercial banks reached 402.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [11] - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.49%, while the provision coverage ratio rose to 211.97%, indicating strengthened risk mitigation capabilities [11][12] - The net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.42%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year, marking a historical low [12][46] Business Observations of Listed Banks - Retail banking is entering a phase of "refined management dividends," with a focus on digital transformation to meet new wealth management needs [11][14] - The report highlights the ongoing transformation of bank wealth management and the challenges and opportunities in this area [11][14] - The banking sector is increasingly aligning its services with national strategic needs, focusing on technology, green finance, and inclusive finance [14][49]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the Chinese perfume and fragrance industry, highlighting its resilience and growth potential in the face of global market fluctuations [10][11][12]. Core Insights - The Chinese perfume and fragrance industry is experiencing a transformation from "transactional purchasing" to "value resonance consumption," where consumers prioritize emotional connections and cultural narratives over mere product functionality [10][25]. - The market is witnessing a significant shift towards emotional and experiential consumption, particularly in lower-tier cities, which are becoming key growth drivers due to their untapped potential [12][33]. - International brands are increasingly localizing their strategies to resonate with Chinese consumers, while domestic brands are focusing on deepening their presence in the local market and exploring global opportunities [40][46]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Resilient Growth of the Chinese Consumer Market - The report decodes the "ice-fire resilience" of the Chinese consumer market, driven by policy stimulation and inherent growth dynamics, particularly in lower-tier cities [18][19]. - The retail sales growth rate of consumer goods has shown a positive trend, with a peak in May 2025, indicating a recovery in consumer sentiment [21][25]. - The shift from survival consumption to development-oriented consumption is emphasized, with a focus on enhancing the quality and cultural aspects of products [25][26]. Part 2: Evolution of the Chinese Perfume and Fragrance Market - The Chinese perfume market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2024 to 2028, reaching a market size of 33.9 billion yuan [58][59]. - The report highlights the dual leadership of the Chinese market, where local beauty brands demonstrate resilience alongside global growth engines [56][58]. - The concept of the "olfactory economy" is emerging, where fragrances extend beyond traditional products to become integral to lifestyle experiences [65][66]. Part 3: Consumer Behavior Insights in the Chinese Perfume Market - There is a notable increase in interest among consumers in lower-tier cities, indicating a growing market for fragrances [14][33]. - The report identifies a trend of personalized scent experiences, where consumers seek unique olfactory identities [36][39]. - The evolving consumer landscape is characterized by a shift towards emotional and experiential connections with brands [52][53]. Part 4: Product Development Trends in the Chinese Perfume Market - The industry is moving towards a new era of fragrances that integrate sensory experiences into daily life, emphasizing lifestyle solutions [47][48]. - The report discusses the evolution of fragrance products, highlighting the importance of cultural narratives and emotional connections in product development [15][16]. Part 5: Marketing Development Trends in the Chinese Perfume Market - Marketing strategies are evolving to focus on emotional resonance and cultural narratives, moving from symbolic consumption to value co-creation [16][55]. - The integration of digital platforms and experiential marketing is reshaping how brands connect with consumers [16][55]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the Chinese perfume and fragrance market is poised for robust growth, driven by emotional consumption trends, the awakening of lower-tier markets, and the collaborative efforts of international and domestic brands [51][54].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Generation Z and millennials are projected to make up 74% of the global workforce by 2030, emphasizing the need for businesses to understand their values and priorities [5] - These generations prioritize learning and development, seeking meaningful work and well-being alongside financial success [8][10] - There is a notable leadership pipeline issue, as only 6% of Gen Zs view reaching a leadership position as their primary career goal [6][11] Summary by Sections 1. Learning and Development and the Leadership Gap - Gen Zs and millennials prioritize learning and development, with 70% of Gen Zs actively developing skills weekly [11][29] - There is a significant gap between what these generations expect from their managers and what they experience, with many feeling that managers focus too much on task oversight rather than mentorship [41][44] 2. Reexamining the Value of Higher Education - Nearly one-third of Gen Zs (31%) and millennials (32%) have chosen not to pursue higher education, primarily due to financial concerns [12][55] - Concerns about the return on investment of higher education are prevalent, with many questioning the practical experience gained through traditional degrees [60][68] 3. Embracing the Promise of GenAI - A majority of Gen Zs (57%) and millennials (56%) are using GenAI in their work, with significant optimism about its benefits for productivity and work/life balance [80][85] - However, there are concerns about job displacement and the impact of GenAI on entry-level positions [86][90] 4. Happiness and the Intersection of Money, Meaning, and Well-Being - The interplay of financial security, meaningful work, and well-being is crucial for happiness among these generations [110][112] - Financial insecurity is a major concern, with 48% of Gen Zs and 46% of millennials feeling financially insecure [134][138] 5. Financial Concerns: Cost of Living Continues to Take a Toll - The cost of living is the top concern for both generations, rising significantly over the past few years [135][138] - More than half of both generations live paycheck to paycheck, indicating a growing sense of financial insecurity [138]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a generally optimistic outlook for the Chinese LSHC industry, with a significant portion of local players expressing ambition and optimism for growth in 2025 [25]. Core Insights - The Chinese LSHC industry is experiencing increased competition and a shift towards cautious investment strategies due to changing market dynamics and regulatory environments [28][55]. - Local players are increasingly focusing on innovation and market access, with a notable emphasis on adapting to new regulatory requirements and leveraging digital technologies [46][44]. - The importance of value propositions is highlighted, particularly in the context of ongoing healthcare payment reforms and the shrinking economic value window for innovative assets [31][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook and Considerations - The overall economic value cycle remains a critical factor for stakeholders, with a focus on "going out" strategies and increased business development efforts from both local and foreign participants [21]. - A significant percentage of respondents (54%) believe their business performance in 2024 will exceed that of 2023, indicating cautious optimism despite challenges [18]. Regulatory and Technological Impacts - The evolving regulatory framework in China is becoming increasingly critical for both local and foreign companies, with nearly half of respondents noting increased constraints due to data privacy and export regulations [38][41]. - The report emphasizes the need for organizations to adapt their talent models and invest in digital capabilities to remain competitive in the changing landscape [44][46]. New Business Investment Strategies - There is a notable shift towards investing in new market channels beyond traditional hospital routes, with 76% of respondents indicating deployment of new channel investments [50]. - The relaxation of foreign investment regulations has intensified local competition, prompting organizations to increase localization investments across various areas, including R&D and clinical trials [52][54]. Market Preferences and Strategic Focus - The report identifies that the market's focus has shifted, with internal competition increasing significantly, leading to a more cautious approach to investment in China [28]. - The importance of market size and patient needs continues to be a primary consideration for businesses entering the Chinese market, alongside government-driven initiatives [55][56].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious yet strategic investment environment in the Chinese private equity market for 2024, emphasizing a shift towards sectors aligned with national priorities such as hard technology and advanced manufacturing [6][7]. Core Insights - The Chinese private equity industry is undergoing structural changes due to valuation adjustments, geopolitical tensions, and a sluggish IPO market, leading to a focus on value creation rather than mere valuation multiples [6]. - State-owned capital and government-guided funds have emerged as the primary sources of funding in the private equity market, compensating for the withdrawal of foreign capital [7][24]. - Despite an overall decline in the market, certain high-tech sectors, particularly semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, continue to attract significant investment [8][41]. - The IPO market remains constrained, prompting a shift towards mergers and acquisitions as alternative exit strategies [10][49]. Summary by Sections 2024 China Private Equity Market Overview - The private equity market in China is navigating through a challenging fundraising environment, with new fund registrations dropping by 44% year-on-year to 4,143 funds and total fundraising declining by 30% to RMB 269 billion [14]. - The total number of existing private equity funds reached 55,000, with a total scale of RMB 14.3 trillion, remaining stable compared to the previous year [14]. Market Insights - The fundraising landscape is increasingly dominated by state-owned and government-guided funds, which have seen a 50% increase in the number of contributions and a 35% increase in the amount contributed compared to 2023 [24]. - The report highlights a significant shift in investment strategies, with private equity firms forming partnerships with state-owned enterprises and sovereign wealth funds to adapt to the new market conditions [6][7]. 2024 China PE/VC Market Investment Situation - Investment activity in the Chinese private equity market has seen a slight decline, with venture capital transactions maintaining a high level of activity, accounting for over 76% of total transactions [36]. - Notable investments include significant funding rounds in high-tech sectors, with the semiconductor industry receiving over RMB 130 billion in investments [41]. 2024 China PE/VC Market Exit Situation - The report notes a growing trend towards mergers and acquisitions as exit strategies, with 376 private equity funds successfully exiting through M&A, marking a 23% increase from the previous year [49]. - The number of IPO exits has significantly decreased, with only 36% of exits occurring through IPOs in 2024, down from 68% in 2021 [54].