Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Committee and Politburo meetings emphasized new productive forces and the need to achieve economic goals within the year[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) warned against excessive bond speculation but did not implement significant measures to curb it[2] - Following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, China initiated asymmetric rate cuts through OMO and MLF, promising to lower existing mortgage rates[2] - The September Politburo meeting led to urgent discussions on economic confidence, real estate, and employment, resulting in a series of stimulus directives[2] Market Performance - As of September 27, TS2412 rose by 0.45%, TF2412 by 0.92%, T2412 by 0.71%, and TL2412 by 2.63%[2] - Despite policy pressures, the bond futures market accelerated upward, indicating market expectations of weakening fundamentals[2] - The ten-year bond yield briefly surpassed 2.0% at the end of the quarter, reflecting market reactions to policy changes[2] Future Considerations - The fourth quarter is expected to focus on fiscal measures and their impact on demand, which may lead to a shift in the bond market towards consolidation[2] - There are uncertainties regarding whether a stimulus exceeding 10 trillion yuan will be implemented, which could be a key factor in the bond market dynamics[2] - The ongoing trade war and supply-side reforms are raising concerns about demand, necessitating strong fiscal stimulus to alleviate internal contradictions[2]

美联储前置鹰派降息，后期更可能是走走停停的降息谨慎模式，具体来说11月更倾向于不降、12月再继 续25bp或50bp的降息； 欧央行经济下行压力增大下的非对称降息，预期后期会有更大幅度的降息幅度，美欧利差或将逐步筑 底； 日本央行按兵不动，从上次加息造成的市场冲击中力求稳定市场，预期比后期更慢的加息，美日利差 或将边际扩大、造成新的套息交易、利多美元； 美元兑一篮子货币利差已经到加息启动前地点，美元指数100左右位置更倾向筑底反弹而非； 一、美联储：经济软着陆、前置降息、鹰派对冲 美联储50bp降息应当是"前置降息"而非"预防式降息"或"衰退式降息"。同时鹰派发言对冲降息预期。后续 判断降息路径更倾向于走走停停的谨慎观察模式，具体来说11月更倾向于不降、12月再继续选择25bp或50bp 的降息。 "前置式降息"而非"衰退式降息" 联储会议上表示：将今年的GDP增长预期小幅下调0.1个百分点，明后两年的GDP预期不变，今年的失业率预 期上调0.4个百分点，明后两年的上调0.2个百分。我们可以看到这并不支持衰退的判断，之前已经反复提及 各项经济数据只是边际转弱，市场传言的降息50bp意味这联储确认了经济衰退并不 ...

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摘要: 今年出口超预期主要来自于对一带一路国家的出口,较大程度对冲了发达经济体在脱 钩环境下的萎缩。但是历史经验表明，欧美的经济及货币周期，会严重左右东南亚、拉美、 非洲等国家经济荣枯。明年欧美更大幅降息高度确认时,我国向东南亚、拉美、非洲等地日 趋壮大的出口市场拓展,可能存在需求同样萎缩的潜在风险。 今年虽然国内的偏好及信心有所承压，但是早已重重担忧的出口一直超出预期。1-8 月美元 计价的出口同比增速仍为4.6%，比市场认为的今年大幅下滑仍有足够韧性，以及中美脱钩 带动的产业转移存在较大背离。 为何今年出口仍具韧性?如果按国别或区域拆解,可以发现中美脱钩是客观事实,但是一带 一路对于出口的贡献,大幅对冲了自 2018年中美贸易战以来脱钩带来的不利影响。如果拿 各国或经济体占总出口比例进行比较, 可以发现我国针对发达国家及重要中转通道中国香港 的出口占比迅速下滑,2021 年通过东南亚、拉美、非洲进行补充。俄乌战争之后,对中东、 中亚、俄罗斯的出口相对 2021年大幅上升。总体而言,对发达经济体出口的缺口,主要补 充来自于东南亚、拉美、俄罗斯及其他前苏联国家（对东欧出口也上升)。 图 1：出口比例变化 ■2 ...

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| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 黑 度 报 告 周 tt | 2024年09月11日 星期一 | | 宏观环境再转冷 反弹结束再下跌 | 第 37 周 中粮期货研究院 | | | | | 宏观金属组 | 供给评价:偏多。铁水日均 223 万吨,粗钢日均 269 万吨,螺纹周 产量 179 万吨,热卷周产量 310 万吨。炼钢利润收缩,铁钢产量下 降，供给端有利因素逐渐增多。 需求评价:偏空。五大钢材表观消费量 855 万吨。其中，螺纹表观 | | 刘佳良 | 消费量 219 万吨，热卷表观消费量 307 万吨。短期需求持续偏 ...

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Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.76% at 38,997.66 points, the S&P 500 up 1.04% at 5,240.03 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.03% at 16,366.85 points[2] - In Europe, the DAX index rose 0.09% to 17,354.32 points, while the CAC40 index fell 0.27% to 7,130.04 points, and the FTSE 100 index increased by 0.23% to 8,026.69 points[2] - Major Asia-Pacific indices mostly rose, with Japan's Nikkei 225 soaring 10.23% to 34,675.46 points, while India's SENSEX30 index fell 0.21% to 78,593.07 points[2] Commodity Prices - International oil prices showed mixed results, with U.S. crude oil for September rising 0.03% to $72.96 per barrel, while Brent crude for October fell 0.25% to $76.11 per barrel[2] - Precious metals futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.5% at $2,432.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.39% at $27.10 per ounce[2] - Most base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose, with LME copper up 0.77% at $8,923 per ton and LME aluminum up 1.81% at $2,303 per ton[2] Bond Yields - Eurozone bond yields were mixed, with the UK 10-year bond yield rising 5.1 basis points to 3.918%, while the French 10-year bond yield fell 2.8 basis points to 2.951%[3] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 4.2 basis points to 3.983% and the 30-year yield up 9.8 basis points to 4.181%[3] Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.35% for the sixth consecutive time, citing risks to inflation returning to target[5] - Japan's labor ministry reported a 1.1% increase in real wages for June, marking the first rise in 27 months, with nominal wages growing 4.5%[5] - The New York Fed reported a 0.6% increase in total household debt in Q2, reaching $17.80 trillion, with mortgage balances rising by $77 billion to $12.52 trillion[5]

摘要:近期商品市场聊起的"carrytrade",本质是借日元长期策略的终结引发的流动性问 题。偿还日元的挤兑升值,带来海外利润的缩减,继而日本权重估值被大幅杀跌。美国的恐 慌来自于顶部拐点的恐高,继而以幅度寻找安全感。如果考量商品,需求大幅衰退预期的兑 现，需要强有力的路径指引和逻辑链条，当下强财政面前并不充足，也就构不成商品进一步 大幅杀跌的基础。虽内外均不认为在 8-9 月继续且大幅杀跌，但境内资金风格的异动需要格 外注意，或指引东升西落的阶段性逻辑。国内基本面已一致悲观，可能利好政策呼之欲出。 抢跑是境外交易的特点 今天日经的暴跌，让笔者回想起一个报告。年初中国投资者抢购日经 ETF 溢价 20%时，野 村证券建议投资者将股票卖给中国买家。如果以美元或者人民币计价日经的表现观察,相对 于美股与更无解的 AI 信仰,日经投资在年内并不能算是较好的投资。从日经赚的钱，年内 被日元的贬值大幅对冲。终于日元汇率因加息，叠加美国衰退而大幅升值时,日经反而给予 暴跌回应。今年日本的投资,可以概括为日元贬值时也许还能小赚,但日元升值时绝对血亏 的定论。 图 1：今年外币投资日经的收益与汇率关系 一美元计 -- 人民 ...

宏 观 日 度 报 2024年8月6日 星期二 中粮期货研究院 作者:范永嘉、郭建志 交易咨询号:Z0014840 从业资格号:F3038119 邮箱: 一、市场盘点 1、美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌 2.6%报 38703.27 点，标普 500 指数跌 3%报 5186.33 点, 纳指跌 3.43%报 16200.08 点。英特尔跌 6.38%，苹果跌 4.82%，领跌道指。万得美国 TAMAMA 科技指数跌 4.42%，英伟达跌 6.36%，特斯拉跌 4.23%。 2、欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌，德国 DAX 指数跌 1.82%报 17339 点，法国 CAC40 指数跌 1.42%报 7148.99 点，英国富时 100 指数跌 2.04%报 8008.23 点。 3、亚太主要股指全线大幅收跌。日经 225 指数大跌 4451.28 点报 31458.42 点，创历史最大下 跌点数, 跌幅为 12.4%。韩国综合指数跌 8.77%报 2441.55点,韩国科斯达克指数跌超 11%。印度 SENSEX30 指数跌 2.74%报 78759.4 点，创两个月最大单日跌幅。澳洲标普 200 指数跌 3.7% ...