数据公布后，美股下跌，美债收益率上升，美元指数先上扬后下跌，年内降息预期继续下降。（详见 图表53- 56） (月) 美国失业率\就业率\劳动参与率 图表 53: 美国失业率和新增非农就业人数 图表 54: (月) U3失业率 预测 U3 就业率 穷动力参与率 7 63 6 910 61 失业率 5 59 4 3 51 )21/1( 022/4 023/4 021/4 ²022/¯ 022/10 021/1 2021/7 024/4 022/ 2023/ 23/1 024/ 024/7 023/ 025/ 24/1 数据来源:iFinD,USDOL,金十数据,中粮期货研究院 美国 就业 2025年2月7日（周五）21:30，美国劳工部公布1月非农就业数据，其中：失业率4%（预期4.1%，前值 4.1%），是2024年5月以来的最低水平；新增就业14.3万（预期17万，前值由25.6万上修至30.7万）， 大幅低于市场预期，但前两个月数据的大幅上修显示出就业市场的整体韧性；时薪环比增长0.5%（预期增长 0.3%，前值0.3%）。 其中，新增就业人数的回落可能与严寒天气、加州山火等短期因素有关。 7 1,200 ...

Interest Rate Changes - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5%, aligning with market expectations[2] - This marks the largest rate hike since February 2007 and the highest level since October 2008[3] - Strong inflation and steady wage growth indicate a clear recovery in the Japanese economy, justifying the rate increase[3] Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Japan's CPI for December showed a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, surpassing the expected 3.4% and up from 2.9% previously[5] - Core CPI rose by 3%, meeting expectations and up from 2.7% in the prior period, marking 40 consecutive months of year-on-year increases[5][6] - Food prices increased by 6.4%, the primary driver of CPI growth, while energy prices also rose due to the suspension of government subsidies[6] Global Economic Indicators - In January, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.1, above the expected 49.7, indicating slight growth in the sector[7] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 46.1, exceeding expectations of 45.3, with Germany at 44.1 and France at 45.3[8] - Japan's manufacturing PMI was reported at 48.8, down from 49.6, while the services PMI improved to 52.7 from 50.9[8] - Despite some slowdowns in service sector growth, the overall manufacturing recovery suggests resilience in the global economy as of January 2025[9]

Market Performance - The closing price for the two-year bond TS2503 is 102.72, reflecting a decrease of 0.23%[2] - The five-year bond TF2503 closed at 106.37, down by 0.11%[2] - The ten-year bond T2503 showed a slight increase of 0.19%, closing at 109.12[2] - The thirty-year bond TL2503 experienced a significant rise of 1.44%, closing at 120.53[2] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The average daily trading volume for the two-year bond TS2503 was 36,609 contracts[2] - The five-year bond TF2503 had a trading volume of 67,398 contracts, indicating active trading[2] - The thirty-year bond TL2503 had the highest trading volume at 94,965 contracts, suggesting strong market interest[2] Yield and IRR Analysis - The IRR for the two-year bond is 0.0%, indicating no expected return change[2] - The IRR for the thirty-year bond TL2503 is also 0.0%, reflecting stability in expected returns[2] - The forward yield for the two-year bond is 0.00%, suggesting no anticipated yield changes in the near term[2] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2024 is projected at 5.4%, which is higher than previous quarters[21] - The trade surplus is expected to exceed previous forecasts, contributing positively to economic growth[21] - The CPI is projected to remain low, with values around 0.10% to 0.60% over the coming months[21]

Group 1: Political and Economic Context - Trump officially began his second term as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, marking the start of the "Trump 2.0" era[1] - Key policy proposals include tax cuts, increased tariffs, immigration restrictions, and adjustments to energy policies, which will significantly impact the U.S. economy and global commodity markets[1] - The 2025 U.S.-China trade conflict is expected to differ from the 2018 trade war in terms of background, focus, objectives, and pace[1] Group 2: Trade Conflict Phases - The trade conflict is anticipated to evolve through four phases: 1. Negotiations in Q1 2025, focusing on China's unfulfilled commitments from 2020-2021, with potential tariffs rising to 60%[1] 2. Tariff negotiations before April 29, 2025, during the "Hundred Days" policy period[1] 3. Intensification of trade tensions in Q3 2025, with tariffs potentially reaching 60% on over $300 billion of goods[1] 4. A new trade agreement expected post the November 2026 midterm elections[1] Group 3: Commodity Market Impacts - Trump's tax cuts are projected to stimulate domestic demand, positively affecting commodity prices[9] - Increased tariffs will likely lead to higher import costs, resulting in input inflation and overall inflationary pressures in the U.S.[10] - The reduction in immigration is expected to tighten the labor market, potentially increasing wages and service-related inflation[11] Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - The resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may lead to reduced sanctions on Russia, increasing global supply of various commodities[15] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are expected to rise, which could create volatility in commodity markets[15] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The trend of de-globalization is expected to continue, with trade growth lagging behind economic growth, leading to a decline in the share of trade in GDP[50] - The U.S. is projected to increase tariffs significantly, with an estimated 5 percentage point rise in overall tariffs and a 25 percentage point increase on China[51]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond futures continue to rise, reaching historical highs amid a policy vacuum and market anticipation of upcoming changes[2] - The December manufacturing PMI is at 50.1, a marginal decline of 0.2, while the service PMI is at 52.2, increasing by 2.2[2] - The central bank has net withdrawn 342.2 billion, indicating a lack of interest rate cuts or reductions[2] Group 2: Futures Performance - As of January 3, TS2503 increased by 0.15%, TF2503 by 0.39%, T2503 by 0.55%, and TL2503 by 1.50%[2] - The five-day average for DR-007 is 1.81% and for R-007 is 2.04%[2] Group 3: Political and Economic Context - Speculation around the release of negative news before Trump's inauguration has led to a resurgence of "Trump trades" in the domestic market[2] - The government is focusing on stimulating domestic demand, which may alter market expectations if significant consumer spending occurs before the holiday[2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Current bond prices reflect a pessimistic outlook, suggesting a bubble; thus, it is advisable to take profits and avoid aggressive buying[2] - Investors are encouraged to consider light short positions at high levels, betting on potential interventions or policies exceeding low expectations[2]

摘要 本文是《智者察同 随势而至》2024年秋季策略报告宏观部分的原文。 特朗普胜选，提出的一篮子新政口号可能暂时振奋情绪。四季度美国需求可能仍有韧性，但财政博弈下，企业减税为 首的财政刺激未必顺利实施，较难给予更高的需求想象空间。预计经济韧性与乐观情绪超预期，未来半年美联储降息 两次。特朗普继续全方位打压中国，但与俄罗斯、伊朗可能修复关系。俄乌冲突可能更快降温，中东局势可控。偏差 是此次上台获得马斯克等新贵资本支持，关注关税是否低于预期。 美联储九月降息之后，中国月底政治局会议罕见提前定调经济政策方向，并给予货币财政组合拳刺激。刺激幅度以完 成年度经济目标，保证平稳运行为依据，长周期坚持三中全会确定的新质生产力转型。面对特朗普加征关税带来的恐 慌，或引发更强政策托底，内需不大幅回暖之前，政策均以加温为主。 2024全年境外反复交易硬着陆—软着陆的预期差，四季度预期可能再度从大幅衰退向浅衰退钟摆，对应境外商品反 弹。境内需求在政策助推下边际回暖，保证相关品种从超低位反弹。政策刺激的规模及持续性如果超预期，境内品种 在报告期内存在走强的延续性。境外浅衰退逻辑极致后，或在一季度又向深度衰退摇摆，令境外品种再度承压 ...

Group 1: Currency Trends - The offshore and onshore USD/CNY exchange rate gap has returned to positive, reinforcing depreciation expectations for the RMB[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate closed at 7.2985, reflecting a 0.56% increase from the previous close of 7.2610[5] - The RMB has shown a significant smaller fluctuation compared to the USD, indicating potential intervention by the central bank to prevent rapid depreciation[27] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but future rate cuts are expected to be cautious, with only two potential cuts totaling 50 basis points anticipated in 2025[3] - The People's Bank of China has not lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), maintaining a stable monetary policy stance[3] - The European Central Bank also cut rates by 25 basis points and may continue to do so in January[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The USD index has strengthened, closing at 107.84, a 1.77% increase from the previous close of 105.97[19] - The market is recognizing Trump's fiscal tightening logic, which may lead to a risk of a temporary pullback in the USD[27] - Geopolitical risks have decreased, contributing to a more stable market environment[38]

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | ·FUTURES FOR FUT 国 债 期 货 周 度 报 告 大幅降息确认 债券或将冲顶 | 2024 ...

摘要：本轮政治局会议定调出现大幅度转变，一改以往政治局会议延续基调，中央经济工作 会议细节展现变量的常态。针对货币政策转向适度宽松，市场第一时间对标同样货币适度宽 松的 2009 年，走出了由复苏快速进至繁荣的大级别上行。注意 2009 年内外共振，今年内 外对冲构成了 2025 年最显著的区别，其次落地节奏及幅度可能以应对美国压力为主。但会 议刚刚定调，面对又回归较低位置的境内商品，先对标、后验证是当下具体产业政策真空期 时短期的择向逻辑。最早的验证窗口，可能也在春节与两会之间，当下需求边际回暖高度确 认。 历次经济工作会议之前的政治局会议，大方针的定调更多表现为延续性，市场更多会去在后 续经济工作会议的细节上挖掘变量。但这次大方针出现了巨大变化，盘后引发市场正反馈。 基调变化主要有以下三点： 一、货币政策转向适度宽松 二、加强超常规逆周期调节 三、大力提振消费、全方位扩大国内需求 市场惊喜于货币政策的全面宽松，自 2009 年之后首次明确提出宽松，即结束了长达 14 年的 稳健基调。正是因为货币巨大转向，叠加超常规逆周期调节，即使财政端未有太大变量，也 引发巨大的想象空间。中国版 MMT 可能已经成熟。最 ...

Supply and Demand Analysis - Daily average pig iron production in October was approximately 2.27 million tons, up 1.4% year-on-year and 1.8% month-on-month[9] - Daily average crude steel production in October was about 2.64 million tons, up 2.9% year-on-year and 2.7% month-on-month[9] - Total inventory of five major steel products reached 11.6 million tons, with rebar inventory at 4.43 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory at 3.06 million tons[1] Market Trends - Short-term market sentiment may improve due to potential macroeconomic recovery, but fundamental pressures are increasing[1] - Steel demand is expected to weaken, particularly in construction steel as the sector enters a low-demand season[15] - Speculative demand remains cautious, impacting overall market dynamics[53] Price Projections - Rebar (RB2501) is expected to stabilize around 3,300 RMB, while hot-rolled coil (HC2505) is projected to return to a premium of about 150 RMB[3] - Iron ore (I2501) is anticipated to maintain around 800 RMB, with a low probability of dropping below 750 RMB[21] - Coking coal (JM2501) is expected to remain above 1,100 RMB, with a small chance of falling below this level[27] Cost and Profitability - The complete cost of Tangshan steel billets is approximately 3,096 RMB[1] - Steel mills are experiencing shrinking profits, leading to reduced production enthusiasm[1] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and cautious speculative behavior[27]