政策效应释放，一季度经济超预期增长 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------|--------|----------|---------------------------------|---------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 点评报告 | 上年同 期值 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 北大国民 \n经济研究 中心预测 值 | Choice 市 \n场预测均 值 | A0012-20240417 \n北京大学国民经济研究中心 宏观经济研究课题组 | | | | | 经济增长 | | | | | GDP 当季同 比（ % ） | | | | 4.5 5.2 5.3 5.2 4.9 | | 学术指导：刘伟 | | 工业增加 值同比 (%) 固定资产 | | | | 3.9 7.0 4.5 4.0 5.3 | | 组长：苏剑 | | 投资累 ...

北京大学国民经济研究中心 出口韧性复工复产步伐加快，进出口增速回暖 外部环境趋紧叠加基数效应，外贸增速小幅下行 ——蔡含篇 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-----------------|--------------------------------------|---------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 进出口点评报告 \n2024 年 3 | 月 出口同比 (%) | 进口同比 (%) | 贸易差额 （亿美元） | A0306-20240412 \n北京大学国民经济研究中心 宏观经济研究课题组 | | 官方数据 | | -7.5 -1.9 | 585.5 | | | 北大国民经济 研究中心预测 | -3.2 | -1.5 | 707.6 | | | Choice 市场预 测均值 | -1.79 | 3.30 | 667.25 | 学术指导：刘伟 | | | | | | 组 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------| | 点评报告 | | | A0205-20240414 | | 2024 年 3 月 | M2 同比 (%) | 新增人民币 贷款（亿元） | 北京大学国民经济研究中心 | | 人民银行 | 8.3 30900 | | 宏观经济研究课题组 | | 北大国民经济研究中心预测 | 8.8 35200 | | | | wind 市场预测均值 | 8.4 30283.3 | | 学术指导：刘伟 | | 2023 年同期值 | 12.7 38900 | | 组长：苏剑 | | | | | | | | | | 课题组成员： | | 要点 | | | 蔡含篇 | | ● 财政发力同去年错开，新增社融同比少增 | | | 陈丽娜 | | | | | 黄昱程 | | ● 信贷需求偏弱，信贷结构和规模均待提振 | | | 邵宇佳 | | ● 高基数， ...

春节错月，CPI 增速小幅下行 北京大学国民经济研究中心 2024 年 3 月，PPI 同比下跌 2.8%，较上月下降 0.1 个百分点，环比下跌 0.1%，降幅较 上月收窄 0.1 个百分点。其中去年价格变动的翘尾影响为-2.3 个百分点；新涨价影响约为- 0.5 个百分点。房地产市场恢复缓慢，外部环境趋紧，工业品总需求弱于供给是 PPI 同比下 跌的主要原因，具体表现为：黑色金属冶炼和压延、水泥价格持续下滑，加工业价格持续环 比下降。 北京大学国民经济研究中心 北京大学国民经济研究中心 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------|----------------|----------------|---------------------------------| | CPI 、 PPI 点评报告 | | | A0101-20240411 | | | | | 北京大学国民经济研究中心 | | 2024 年 3 月 | CPI 同比 (%) | PPI 同比 (%) | 宏观经济研究课题组 | ...

春节错位效应显著，社融货币扰动加大 北京大学国民经济研究中心 2024 年 2 月，新增人民币贷款 14500 亿元，同比少增 3600 亿元，超出市场预期。整体 而言，2 月份新增人民币贷款超出市场预期但依然是同比少增，主要受短期贷款的大幅拖累， 尤其是居民户短期信贷大幅少增，而企事业单位基本持平。 北京大学国民经济研究中心 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------| | 点评报告 | | | A0205-20240316 | | 2024 年 2 月 | M2 同比 (%) | 新增人民币 贷款（亿元） | 北京大学国民经济研究中心 | | 人民银行 8.7 | | 14500 | 宏观经济研究课题组 | | 北大国民经济研究中心预测 | 8.6 | 17800 | | | wind 市场预测均值 8.7 | | 14337.5 | 学术指导：刘伟 | | 202 ...

Group 1: CPI and Food Prices - In February 2024, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and rose 1.0% month-on-month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points[28] - Food prices saw a significant month-on-month increase of 3.3%, up 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, contributing approximately 0.59 percentage points to the CPI increase[17] - The main drivers for the food price increase were fresh vegetables, pork, and aquatic products, with fresh vegetables rising by 12.7% month-on-month[17] Group 2: Non-Food Prices - Non-food prices showed a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, contributing about 0.44 percentage points to the CPI change[39] - Among non-food categories, education and cultural entertainment prices rose the most, increasing by 1.7% month-on-month[39] - Year-on-year, non-food prices increased by 1.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.89 percentage points[1] Group 3: PPI Trends - In February 2024, the PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and dropped 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline rate remaining stable[37] - The decline in PPI was primarily driven by a 3.4% drop in production material prices year-on-year, with raw material prices showing the most significant decrease[48] - Life material prices decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, reflecting a continued downward trend due to insufficient demand in the industrial sector[48] Group 4: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to rise in 2024, influenced by policies promoting consumption and low base effects, with an anticipated year-on-year growth rate of around 0.6%[44] - The PPI is projected to improve slightly in 2024, with an expected year-on-year growth rate of approximately -0.4% due to recovering domestic demand and stabilizing global commodity prices[54]

Economic Growth Indicators - Industrial added value is expected to grow by 4.5% year-on-year in January-February 2024, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year[9] - Fixed asset investment is projected to increase by 3.5% year-on-year in January-February 2024, up by 0.5 percentage points from previous forecasts[54] - Retail sales of consumer goods are anticipated to rise by 8.6% year-on-year in January-February 2024, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from earlier estimates[26] Trade and Import/Export Dynamics - Exports are expected to grow by 3.7% year-on-year in January-February 2024, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from previous forecasts[55] - Imports are projected to rise by 2.6% year-on-year in January-February 2024, up by 2.4 percentage points from earlier estimates[31] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to increase by 0.7% year-on-year in February 2024, a rise of 1.5 percentage points from previous data[18] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by 2.5% year-on-year in February 2024, remaining stable compared to previous forecasts[38] Monetary Policy and Credit - New RMB loans are projected to be 17,800 billion yuan in February 2024, a decrease of 300 billion yuan year-on-year[42] - M2 money supply is expected to grow by 8.6% year-on-year by the end of February 2024, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period[75]