第一时间阅读本中心报告 北京大学国民经济研究中心 国际大宗商品价格下行，PPI 降幅再度扩张 ——蔡含篇 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------------|------------------------------------|--------|--------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------------| | CPI | 、 PPI | 点评报告 | | | | | A0101-20240909 | | | | | | | | | 北京大学国民经济研究中心 | | 2024 年 8 月 | 上年同 期值 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 北大国民 经济研究 中心预测 值 | | Choice 市 场预测均 值 | 宏观经济研究课题组 | | CPI 同 ...

E A L T H 主办单位：北京大学国民经济研究中心 2024 年第 8 期总第 112 期 发刊日期：2024 年 8 月 6 日 主编：苏剑 CALISES OF WEALTH 特别推荐： 2024 年 7 月中国宏观经济数据预测 刘伟：新质生产力的理论创新与实践要求析 黄茹娟：专访北大经济学者：牵好经济体制改革的"牛鼻子"· 2024 年 7 月汇率报告 扫二维码或发邮件订阅 gmjjyj@pku.edu.cn 图片源于网络 北京大学国民经济研究中心及其宏观研究团队简介 北京大学国民经济研究中心成立于 2004 年，主管单位为北京大学经济学院，原名为"北 京大学中国国民经济核算与经济增长研究中心"， 2017 年 12 月改为现名。该中心现任主任 为北京大学经济学院苏剑教授。该中心依托北京大学，重点研究领域包括中国经济波动和经 济增长、宏观调控理论与实践、经济学理论、中国经济改革实践、转轨经济理论和实践前沿 课题、政治经济学、西方经济学教学研究等。 从 2004 年到目前为止，中心已连续出版《中国经济增长报告》15 期（每年一期），对 中国经济增长长期持续的研究使得该报告产生了越来越大的社会影响，其中 ...

北京大学国民经济研究中心 政策效应释放，经济恢复继续 ——蔡含篇 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|--------|---------------|--------|-----------------------|-------------------------------------------| | 预测报告 | 上年值 | 上年同 期值 | 上期值 | 2024 年 7 月预测 | B0011-20240801 \n北京大学国民经济研究中心 | | | | 经济增长 | | | 宏观经济研究课题组 | | 工业增加 值同比 (%) | 4.6 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | | | 固定资产投资 累计同比 (%) | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 学术指导：刘伟 | | 社会消费品零 售额同比 (%) | 7.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 组长：苏剑 | | 出口同比 (%) | -4.6 | -14.2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | | | 进口同比 (%) | ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2024, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also grew by 0.6% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month[6] - Seasonal factors led to an increase in fruit and vegetable supply, causing a decline in most food prices, while pork prices rose significantly due to reduced production capacity[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 0.8% year-on-year in June 2024, but this represented a narrowing of the decline by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[9] - The PPI's month-on-month growth was -0.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to weak industrial demand[9] - The decline in PPI was influenced by base effects, with the main driver being the weak demand for industrial products[12] Group 3: Food and Non-Food Price Trends - Among food categories, the price of fresh vegetables saw the largest year-on-year decline at -7.3%, while pork prices increased by 11.4% month-on-month[22] - Non-food prices showed mixed trends, with an overall year-on-year increase of 0.8%, contributing approximately 0.64 percentage points to the CPI[24] - The prices of non-food items decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with transportation and communication prices experiencing the most significant decline at -0.6%[27]

预计 2024 年 7 月在 7.10～7.31 区间双向波动 （北大国民经济研究中心） 从 6 月的内部环境来看，在稳经济政策的主力下，经济恢复继续，但经济内生修复动 能仍待进一步加强。国内经济基本面，5月社会消费品零售总额、PPI分别同比增长 3.7%、 -1.4%，均高于预期和前值，但 6 月 PMI 与前月持平。从 6 月的外部环境来看，中美利差保 持倒挂，人民币依旧承压。截至 6 月 28 日，美国 10 年期国债收益率为 4.36%，中国 10 年 期国债收益率为 2.21%；美国 1 年期国债收益率为 5.09%，中国 1 年期国债收益率为 1.55%。 跨境资金方面，6 月北向资金净流出，利空人民币。美元指数方面，受美联储降息预期推 迟影响，6 月美元指数小幅上涨。 数据来源：Choice，北京大学国民经济研究中心 从压低因素看：中美利差保持倒挂。截止到 6 月 28 日，10 年期美债收益率为 4.36%， 10 年期国债收益率为 2.21%，中美利差持续倒挂，人民币承压。 一、市场回顾 5.6000 5.8000 6.0000 6.2000 6.4000 6.6000 6.8000 7.0 ...

北京大学国民经济研究中心 ——蔡含篇 扫描二维码或发邮件订阅 第一时间阅读本中心报告 ● 基数效应，GDP 增速或小幅下调 ● 地产探底叠加政策支撑，投资增速或与前月持平 有效需求不足，政策有待进一步发力 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------|---------------|--------|-----------------------|-------------------------------------------| | 预测报告 | 上年值 | 上年同 期值 | 上期值 | 2024 年 6 月预测 | B0011-20240701 \n北京大学国民经济研究中心 | | | | 经济增长 | | | 宏观经济研究课题组 | | GDP 当季同比 （%） | 5.2 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | | | 工业增加 值同比 (%) | 4.6 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 学术指导：刘伟 组长：苏剑 | | 固定资产投资 | 3.0 | 3.8 | | 4.0 4.0 ...

北京大学国民经济研究中心 从同比看，5 月 PPI 下跌 1.4%，较上月升 1.1 个百分点，这主要受基数效应影响。同时， 5 月环比增速由负转正，较前月上涨 0.6 个百分点。受国际大宗商品价格上涨影响，生产资 料价格由跌转升，同比下降 1.6%，较前月收窄 1.5 个百分点，其中原材料价格同比由负转 正；受中下游工业需求不足影响，生活资料价格下跌 0.8%，较上月升 0.1 个百分点，其中耐 用消费品价格同比下降最为明显。生产资料价格上涨是 PPI 同比降幅收窄的主要原因。 北京大学国民经济研究中心 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|-------|---------------------------------|-------|-----------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | PPI: 生产资料 : 采掘工业:环比 | | PPI: 生活资料:食品类:环比 | | | | PPI: 生产资料:原材料工业 : 环比 | | PPI: 生活资料:衣着类:环比 | | | | PPI: 生产 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May 2024, the CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, remaining unchanged from the previous month, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[7] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, grew by 0.6% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Food prices saw a narrowing decline of 2.0%, improving by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, driven by extreme weather and reduced pork production[11] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In May 2024, the PPI fell by 1.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[3] - The decline in PPI was primarily due to weak industrial demand, with the real estate market recovering slowly and external uncertainties persisting[3] - The narrowing decline in PPI was influenced by base effects and rising international commodity prices[3] Group 3: Food and Non-Food Price Trends - Food prices showed mixed trends, with fresh vegetables decreasing by 2.5% month-on-month, while egg prices increased by 2.2%[28] - Non-food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with significant declines in transportation and communication costs, impacting the overall CPI[42] - Among non-food categories, other goods and services saw the highest year-on-year increase of 3.6%[14] Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2024, CPI is expected to rise to around 0.6% year-on-year, driven by improved consumption demand and low base effects[56] - PPI is projected to improve to approximately -0.4% year-on-year, influenced by stabilizing international commodity prices and domestic economic recovery[52]

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a stable trend for the RMB, fluctuating between 7.1020 and 7.2734 as of May 2024[8] - Factors influencing this stability include disappointing U.S. employment data, a slight decline in U.S. CPI growth, and the ongoing recovery of the Chinese economy[9] Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 to 7.28 in June 2024, with a slight downward trend anticipated[6][13] - The Chinese economy shows signs of recovery, supported by better-than-expected GDP growth and improving foreign trade data[5] Influencing Factors - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.51%, while China's is at 2.32%, indicating a persistent yield gap that pressures the RMB[10][14] - The European Central Bank is likely to lower interest rates in June, which may lead to a stronger dollar and further pressure on the RMB[14] Recent Data - In May, the RMB onshore rate decreased from 7.2416 to 7.2440, a drop of 24 basis points, while the offshore rate fell from 7.2550 to 7.2629, a decline of 79 basis points[9] - The Brent crude oil price averaged $82.07 per barrel in May, down 8.98% from April, contributing to the overall market dynamics[9]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-------------|------------------------------------|--------|------------------------------------------------|----------------------|---------------------------------------------| | CPI | 、 PPI | 点评报告 | | | | A0101-20240511 | | 2024 年 4 月 | 上年同 期值 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 北大国民 经济研究 中心预测 | Wind 市场 预测均值 | 北京大学国民经济研究中心 宏观经济研究课题组 | | CPI 同比 | | | | 值 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 | | | | (%) PPI 同比 | | | | -3.6 -2.8 -2.5 -2.1 -2.3 | | 学术指导：刘伟 | | (%) | | | | | | 组长：苏剑 | ...