Economic Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to 2023[2] - The industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year in the first nine months, remaining stable compared to the previous period[6] - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% year-on-year, marking the first halt in the decline of investment growth this year[13] Demand and Consumption - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, down 0.4 percentage points from the first half of the year[10] - In September, retail sales grew by 3.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from August, driven by policy support and increased consumer confidence[10] - The per capita disposable income for residents reached 30,941 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the first half of the year[10] Trade and External Environment - In September, exports totaled $303.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, but down 6.3 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Imports amounted to $222 billion, growing by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight decline from the previous month[19] - The trade surplus was $81.71 billion, reflecting a narrowing trade balance amid external uncertainties[14] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year in September, down 0.2 percentage points from August, indicating weak demand[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - New RMB loans in September totaled 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 720 billion yuan, indicating weak credit demand[5]

Export Performance - In September 2024, China's total export value reached $303.71 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The trade surplus for September 2024 was $81.71 billion, down from $91.02 billion in the previous period[2] - Exports to major economies showed varied performance: to the US at 2.2%, EU at 1.3%, Japan at -7.1%, and ASEAN at 5.5%[5] Import Trends - China's total import value in September 2024 was $222.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, down by 0.2 percentage points from August[6] - The manufacturing PMI for September was 49.8, indicating a stable but below-threshold performance, with internal demand needing further release[6] - Imports from the US, EU, Japan, and ASEAN showed growth rates of 6.7%, -3.5%, -7.1%, and 4.2% respectively, with significant declines from the US and Japan[6] Economic Outlook - The global economic recovery in 2024 is expected to stabilize export growth, supported by easing inflation and improved external demand[8] - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy are anticipated to gradually improve import growth, although the real estate market remains a concern[8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from August[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, grew by 0.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Seasonal factors, such as the start of school and the Mid-Autumn Festival, led to an increase in demand for fruits and vegetables, pushing some food prices up[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year in September 2024, with the decline expanding by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - The drop in PPI was attributed to lower international commodity prices and a high base effect from the previous year[3] - Production material prices saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with the mining and raw materials sectors experiencing significant drops of 1.3 and 3.4 percentage points, respectively[19] Group 3: Market Outlook - Effective demand remains insufficient, which is a fundamental reason for the low CPI growth rate[3] - The report anticipates that CPI growth will rise in 2024 due to policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting consumption[22] - PPI is expected to improve in 2024, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately -2.1%[22]

Exchange Rate Trends - In September 2024, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1236 and 7.0202, showing a stable upward trend with an increase of 663 basis points from 7.0881 to 7.0218[2] - The offshore RMB rate rose from 7.0906 to 7.0332, accumulating an increase of 574 basis points[2] - The anticipated Fed rate cut and actual cut of 50 basis points on September 18, 2024, further boosted the RMB, with an increase of 675 basis points observed by September 25, 2024[3] Influencing Factors - The Fed's rate cut to a target range of 4.75% to 5.00% was unexpected, as the market anticipated a 25 basis point cut, which contributed to the RMB's appreciation[3] - Domestic economic indicators showed a slowdown, with PMI and retail sales declining, putting short-term pressure on the RMB[3] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis point policy rate reduction, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market[3] Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to fluctuate between 6.80 and 7.22 in October 2024, influenced by both domestic and international factors[1] - The ongoing interest rate cuts in Western economies are expected to support the RMB[4] - Despite the pressure from the inverted yield curve between US and Chinese bonds, the liquidity released from rate cuts is likely to favor the RMB's stability[5]

Economic Growth - GDP is expected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in Q3 2024, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from Q2 2024[2] - The industrial added value is projected to grow by 4.3% year-on-year in September 2024, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous period[3][10] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to increase by 3.5% year-on-year from January to September 2024, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous period[4][14] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to rise by 2.4% year-on-year in September 2024, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from August 2024[4][12] - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% from January to August 2024, impacting overall investment growth[14][16] Trade and Prices - Exports are anticipated to grow by 8.4% year-on-year in September 2024, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from August 2024[4][16] - Imports are projected to increase by 1.1% year-on-year in September 2024, up 0.6 percentage points from August 2024[4][19] - CPI is expected to grow by 0.6% year-on-year in September 2024, remaining stable compared to the previous month[5][21] - PPI is forecasted to decline by 2.2% year-on-year in September 2024, with the decline widening by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[5][23] Monetary Policy - New RMB loans are expected to reach 15,000 billion yuan in September 2024, a decrease of 8,100 billion yuan year-on-year[6][24] - M2 is projected to grow by 6.4% year-on-year by the end of September 2024, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period[6][27] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.0 and 6.8 in October 2024, influenced by U.S. monetary policy and domestic economic expectations[6][30]

第一时间阅读本中心报告 北京大学国民经济研究中心 国际大宗商品价格下行，PPI 降幅再度扩张 ——蔡含篇 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------------|------------------------------------|--------|--------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------------| | CPI | 、 PPI | 点评报告 | | | | | A0101-20240909 | | | | | | | | | 北京大学国民经济研究中心 | | 2024 年 8 月 | 上年同 期值 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 北大国民 经济研究 中心预测 值 | | Choice 市 场预测均 值 | 宏观经济研究课题组 | | CPI 同 ...

E A L T H 主办单位：北京大学国民经济研究中心 2024 年第 8 期总第 112 期 发刊日期：2024 年 8 月 6 日 主编：苏剑 CALISES OF WEALTH 特别推荐： 2024 年 7 月中国宏观经济数据预测 刘伟：新质生产力的理论创新与实践要求析 黄茹娟：专访北大经济学者：牵好经济体制改革的"牛鼻子"· 2024 年 7 月汇率报告 扫二维码或发邮件订阅 gmjjyj@pku.edu.cn 图片源于网络 北京大学国民经济研究中心及其宏观研究团队简介 北京大学国民经济研究中心成立于 2004 年，主管单位为北京大学经济学院，原名为"北 京大学中国国民经济核算与经济增长研究中心"， 2017 年 12 月改为现名。该中心现任主任 为北京大学经济学院苏剑教授。该中心依托北京大学，重点研究领域包括中国经济波动和经 济增长、宏观调控理论与实践、经济学理论、中国经济改革实践、转轨经济理论和实践前沿 课题、政治经济学、西方经济学教学研究等。 从 2004 年到目前为止，中心已连续出版《中国经济增长报告》15 期（每年一期），对 中国经济增长长期持续的研究使得该报告产生了越来越大的社会影响，其中 ...

北京大学国民经济研究中心 政策效应释放，经济恢复继续 ——蔡含篇 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|--------|---------------|--------|-----------------------|-------------------------------------------| | 预测报告 | 上年值 | 上年同 期值 | 上期值 | 2024 年 7 月预测 | B0011-20240801 \n北京大学国民经济研究中心 | | | | 经济增长 | | | 宏观经济研究课题组 | | 工业增加 值同比 (%) | 4.6 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | | | 固定资产投资 累计同比 (%) | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 学术指导：刘伟 | | 社会消费品零 售额同比 (%) | 7.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 组长：苏剑 | | 出口同比 (%) | -4.6 | -14.2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | | | 进口同比 (%) | ...

第一时间阅读本中心报告 北京大学国民经济研究中心 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-06 CPI:当月同比 PPI:全部工业品:当月同比 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-06 CPI:环比 PPI:全部工业品:环比 图 1 CPI、PPI 当月同比增速（%） 图 2 CPI、PPI 环比增速（%） 正 文 价格走势平稳，基数效应 PPI 降幅收窄 2024 年 6 月，CP ...

预计 2024 年 7 月在 7.10～7.31 区间双向波动 （北大国民经济研究中心） 从 6 月的内部环境来看，在稳经济政策的主力下，经济恢复继续，但经济内生修复动 能仍待进一步加强。国内经济基本面，5月社会消费品零售总额、PPI分别同比增长 3.7%、 -1.4%，均高于预期和前值，但 6 月 PMI 与前月持平。从 6 月的外部环境来看，中美利差保 持倒挂，人民币依旧承压。截至 6 月 28 日，美国 10 年期国债收益率为 4.36%，中国 10 年 期国债收益率为 2.21%；美国 1 年期国债收益率为 5.09%，中国 1 年期国债收益率为 1.55%。 跨境资金方面，6 月北向资金净流出，利空人民币。美元指数方面，受美联储降息预期推 迟影响，6 月美元指数小幅上涨。 数据来源：Choice，北京大学国民经济研究中心 从压低因素看：中美利差保持倒挂。截止到 6 月 28 日，10 年期美债收益率为 4.36%， 10 年期国债收益率为 2.21%，中美利差持续倒挂，人民币承压。 一、市场回顾 5.6000 5.8000 6.0000 6.2000 6.4000 6.6000 6.8000 7.0 ...