Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The document does not specify a particular company or industry involved in the conference call Core Points and Arguments - The content of the conference call is strictly for internal reference among participants, and any disclosure or external sharing of the information is prohibited [1] - The organization reserves the right to pursue legal action against any individual or entity that leaks or disseminates the conference call minutes [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Emphasis on confidentiality and the legal implications of sharing the conference call content [1]

设施建设在2022年23年其实整个这两年的订单包括今年上半年的订单呢基本上都是处于一个下降的一个态势啊这个主要是两个原因啊第一个呢我们呃这个这一块城市综合体建设的订单下降啊是符合公司在这一块的战略调整公司从2022年开始对于需要 公司电资的未来可能有回款风险的还有包括地方政府做业主或者地方平台地方政府性质平台做业主的这种3P项目我们现在是非常谨慎除非是有这种战略协同我们会小比例参股也是10% 5% 10%以投资拉动EPC的这种形式去做 所以这一块下降一方面是受到公司战略的一个调整这一块我们今年2024年的全年投资计划是接近1400亿1390多亿其中95%以上我们都投到新兴战略产业了城市基础设施这一块的投资基本上就没有了这也是我们从投资上的一个战略调整 第二个原因这块下降主要还是受制于两个一个是房地产一个是整个建筑板块的一个疲软我们2023年城市基础设施建设订单细分里面单个合同金额超过5亿元的这种项目这个是叫2022年是下降了非常多5亿元以上的合同就比较少了去年因为 也有一些这种国家政策的导向这个保障性住房我们去年房建全年签了1200多亿这块去年的表现还是可以的未来在城市综合体建设这块我们可能主要把业务方向集中 ...

高盛：物流由于价格竞争缓解和进入更容易的基数,上调利润预测,看好二季度 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The emerging market for "仲卡" (likely referring to a specific market segment) is larger than previously anticipated, as highlighted in multiple reports by the company [1] Key Insights - Official research from leading global companies in the "仲卡" sector indicates a significant market size, suggesting that expert opinions may underestimate its potential [1] Additional Important Points - The company emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of the emerging market to identify investment opportunities and risks [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou, while giving a Neutral rating to Vipshop and Dada Nexus [11]. Core Insights - The 618 Shopping Festival saw a prolonged duration with more spread-out sales, leading to mid-to-high single-digit industry GMV growth on a net basis and low double-digit gross GMV growth [2][25]. - There is a notable fightback from incumbents like Alibaba, which focused on GMV growth, while Douyin's GMV growth moderated [3][28]. - Increased competition on price and subsidies was observed, with platforms like Alibaba and JD investing heavily in user subsidies to drive growth [29][32]. - Higher return rates, particularly in apparel, were noted, driven by favorable return policies and increased consumer value consciousness [32][33]. - Adtech upgrades are expected to bring long-term monetization upside, with Alibaba rolling out new marketing functions during the festival [9][34]. Summary by Sections 5 Key Highlights - The festival had three sales peaks due to an early start, with a significant increase in parcel volumes observed [25][26]. - Alibaba's early start likely benefited its GMV growth, while the cancellation of pre-sales aimed to enhance user experience [25][28]. - Livestreaming GMV growth has moderated significantly, indicating a maturing market [3][28]. Broader Picture of the Festival; 2Q Outlook for Key eCommerce Names - The report outlines key growth highlights across platforms, with over 10,000 brands achieving more than 5x GMV growth in the first four hours of JD's festival [37]. - Electronics and appliances saw substantial growth, with many brands achieving over 100% GMV growth [37]. Engagement Data - The report highlights the engagement metrics during the festival, noting significant increases in viewer numbers and trade-in orders [37]. Discount Level & Benefits Comparison - Price competitiveness has intensified, with platforms offering substantial discounts and subsidies to attract consumers [29][31]. Category Performance - Various categories such as beauty, apparel, and electronics showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant declines in growth compared to previous years [16][37].

Ac更ces多sib资le v料ers加ion入 知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Basic Materials - China Cement/paper/glass price recovery; weak steel price amid weak consumption Industry Overview Coal: Price remained stable WoW 1 7 June 2024 The QHD 5,500kcal price was down 0.2% WoW to RMB871/t, almost flattish. NEWC Equity 6,000K price was up 0.3% WoW to US$135/t, at 22% of premium vs QHD price. The China Liulin No.4 HCC price was down 2.5% WoW to RMB1,930/t. As of Jun 10, the water Basic Materials i 1n 5f ,l 2o 8w 9 o cf m T /h sr ,e we ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Laojiao, Fen Wine, Gujing, and ZJLD due to their potential for market share gains and solid brand positioning [2]. Core Insights - The spirits sector in China has seen a decline of over 6% in stock prices on average, attributed to media reports regarding potential consumption tax reforms [1]. - The report outlines three scenarios for the impact of consumption tax reform on the spirits industry, indicating that high-end spirits will be more affected than mass-market players [1][2]. - Moutai is expected to be more resilient in passing on tax burdens due to its strong pricing power, despite recent share price volatility [2]. Scenario Analysis Scenario 1: Transfer of Tax Collection to Wholesale/Retail - Effective tax rates would vary by retail pricing tier, with rates of 20% for products priced over Rmb1,000, 15% for Rmb600-Rmb1,000, and 12% for products under Rmb600 [5]. - Companies most impacted include Wuliangye, Laojiao, and Gujing due to their higher exposure to high-end spirits [10][20]. Scenario 2: Increased Tax Rates for Manufacturers - Different effective tax rates would apply based on retail pricing tiers, with a 25% rate for products priced over Rmb1,000 [5]. - Similar to Scenario 1, Wuliangye, Laojiao, and Gujing would face significant impacts due to their high-end product exposure [22]. Scenario 3: Unified Effective Tax Rate - A unified effective tax rate of 25% on ex-factory prices would be applied, translating to approximately a 15% effective tax rate on wholesale prices [5]. - Companies like Gujing, Swellfun, and Jiugui would be most affected due to their lower net profit margins [24]. Financial Metrics - The spirits sector is currently trading at an average of 18X/15X P/E for 2024/2025 estimates, with an expected net profit CAGR of 18% from 2024E to 2026E [1]. - Moutai is trading at 21X/19X P/E for 2024E, indicating its premium valuation compared to the sector [1]. Company-Specific Insights - Moutai's distributors currently enjoy a gross profit margin of over 50%, allowing Moutai to potentially absorb more of the tax burden compared to its competitors [13][14]. - A price hike of approximately 6% may be necessary for Moutai to offset the additional tax burden under the proposed scenarios [15].

高盛：央行行长重申支持性货币政策立场, 并呼吁完善货币政策框架 ...

高盛：消费税改革长期利好, 但实施可能逐步推进 ...

高盛：宏观到微观房地产融资支持政策的影响 ...