伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 研究院 2024 年 8 月 22 日 2024 年第 39 期（总第 550 期） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------|------------------|-------|---------------------------------------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 我国长期护理保险： | | | | | | | | | | Ω ● | | | | 中银研究产品系列 《经济金融展望季报》 | | 意义、现状与建议 ＊ | | ● | | 《中银调研》 | | | | | | ● | | 《宏观观察》 | | | | 习近平总书记提出，要让所有老年人都能有一 | | ● | | 《银行业观察》 | | | | 个幸福美满的晚年。解决老年群体、尤其是重度失 ...

伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 研究院 2024 年 8 月 13 日 2024 年第 38 期（总第 549 期） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------------------|------------|-------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革 推进 | | 中银研究产品系列 Ω | | | | | 中国式现代化的决定》解读系列之六 | | ● ● | 《中银调研》 | | | 《经济金融展望季报》 | 以开放促改革，创新提升服务贸易 ＊ | | | 《宏观观察》 | | | | | | ● | 《银行业观察》 | | | | 《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革 推进中国 | | ● ...

伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 研究院 2024 年 8 月 13 日 2024 年第 38 期（总第 549 期） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------------------|------------|-------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革 推进 | | 中银研究产品系列 Ω | | | | | 中国式现代化的决定》解读系列之六 | | ● ● | 《中银调研》 | | | 《经济金融展望季报》 | 以开放促改革，创新提升服务贸易 ＊ | | | 《宏观观察》 | | | | | | ● | 《银行业观察》 | | | | 《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革 推进中国 | | ● ...

Economic Trends - The digital economy in China has maintained a growth rate of over 10%, with its value-added accounting for approximately 40% of GDP, and the core industries of the digital economy contributing about 10% to GDP[5] - In 2023, China's e-commerce transaction volume reached 46.83 trillion yuan, growing by 9.4% year-on-year, with online retail sales increasing by 11%[7] - The number of internet medical users in China reached 414 million by the end of 2023, representing 37.9% of all internet users[8] Challenges in Taxation - The rapid development of new business models has led to challenges in tax administration, including ambiguous definitions of taxpayers and income sources, complicating tax collection efforts[2] - The separation of tax source and actual tax collection locations has intensified, affecting tax equity and leading to tax revenue concentration in regions with favorable tax policies[29] - The direct financing scale in the shared economy dropped to 13.2 billion yuan in 2022, a 93.8% decrease year-on-year, indicating significant challenges in attracting investment[20] Future Tax Reforms - Future tax reforms are expected to focus on adapting to the rapid increase in individual taxpayers, with an emphasis on revising laws and regulations to include natural persons in the tax system[31] - Policies will aim to clarify standards for defining taxpayers, taxable income, and value allocation to improve tax governance and compliance[31] - The integration of advanced technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence in tax administration is anticipated to enhance efficiency and accuracy in tax collection processes[31]

Economic Overview - The "first release economy" is gaining attention as a significant force in urban brand development, with Shanghai leading and cities like Beijing, Chengdu, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou following closely[2] - From 2018 to 2022, Shanghai introduced 4,881 new brand stores, averaging 2.7 new stores per day, with over 30% of national retail first stores located in Shanghai[5] Challenges - The first release economy faces intensified homogenization among cities, leading to reduced differentiation and potential consumer fatigue[14] - The structure of the economy remains overly focused on retail and dining, with 52% and 45.63% of first stores in these sectors respectively, limiting market diversification[16][17] Recommendations - Encourage differentiated development based on local culture and regional characteristics to enhance the first release economy's impact[20] - Strengthen financial support for the first release economy by adjusting credit resources and innovating financial products tailored to new consumption patterns[22]

Group 1: Future Industry Development Significance - Future industries are driven by cutting-edge technologies and are in the early stages of industrialization, representing strategic and disruptive emerging sectors[2] - Historical data shows that countries that invested in future industries during industrial revolutions achieved higher total factor productivity (TFP) and economic growth rates[4] - In 2024, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 4.929 million and 4.944 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.1% and 32%[3] Group 2: Current and Future Industry Landscape - The global market for quantum computing is projected to grow from $4.7 billion in 2023 to $811.7 billion by 2035, indicating significant potential in this sector[11] - China's digital economy's core industry value added exceeded 12 trillion yuan in 2023, accounting for 10% of GDP, with growth rates consistently surpassing GDP growth[14] - The 2023 Global Future Industry Development Index ranked the U.S. and China as the top two countries, with China leading in talent and education[9] Group 3: Investment Mechanism and Policy Recommendations - The "Decision" emphasizes the need to establish a future industry investment growth mechanism, focusing on increasing capital investment and optimizing resource allocation[25] - Strengthening basic research capabilities is crucial, with a call to increase the proportion of R&D spending dedicated to foundational research, which was only 6.57% in China in 2022 compared to 14.8% in the U.S.[17] - A multi-stakeholder collaborative approach is necessary to address uncertainties in technology, application scenarios, and successful industrialization, ensuring a supportive ecosystem for future industries[22]

Demographic Trends - China's total fertility rate has declined from 1.93 in 1991 to 1.07 in 2022, falling below the replacement level of 2.1[3] - In 2022, China's population decreased by 850,000, marking the first negative growth since 1962, with a further decline of 2.08 million in 2023[3] - The aging population is accelerating, with the elderly dependency ratio projected to rise to 51.5% by 2050, significantly higher than the global average of 26.7%[6] Economic Implications - The decline in birth rates and changes in age structure will increase social pension pressures, affecting long-term economic development[6] - The average cost of raising a child to age 18 in China is approximately 485,000 yuan, which is 6.9 times the per capita GDP[9] - Educational and housing sectors are expected to face challenges due to the declining birth rate, with a notable decrease in the number of kindergartens by 1.9% in 2022[6] Policy Recommendations - The government aims to lower the comprehensive costs of childbirth and child-rearing, including increasing personal income tax deductions for families[9] - Establishing a comprehensive maternity leave system and improving workplace environments to support parents is crucial for increasing birth rates[15] - Implementing a nationwide birth subsidy system is necessary, as current policies are limited and vary significantly across regions[27]

Economic Context - Insufficient domestic demand has become a major issue for China's economic operation, particularly post-pandemic, with retail sales growth significantly declining[3] - In the first half of 2024, cumulative consumption growth was only 3.7%, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year[3] Income Distribution Issues - The current income distribution structure in China shows a low proportion of resident income, with labor compensation being a significant factor[2] - From 2008 to 2020, the average share of resident income in the initial distribution was 51.4%, lower than the U.S. (64.7%) and other developed countries[16] - The income gap between urban and rural areas remains substantial, with the income ratio of the top 20% to the bottom 20% in rural areas being 9.2, compared to 6.3 in urban areas[67] Consumption Behavior - The relationship between income distribution and consumption behavior is critical, as a low share of disposable income leads to insufficient consumption capacity[24] - The marginal propensity to consume decreases as income increases, which can suppress overall consumption demand when income disparities widen[27] Recommendations for Improvement - Enhancing the income distribution system is essential for unlocking consumer potential, as proposed in the 20th Central Committee's Third Plenary Session[2] - The report suggests increasing the proportion of labor compensation in the initial distribution and optimizing the tax structure to improve income equity[2][90] - Developing capital markets and diversifying investment channels for residents can help increase property income, which currently accounts for only 8.5% of disposable income, significantly lower than the U.S. (15.5%)[55]

Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced the "New National Nine Measures" on April 12, 2024, aimed at enhancing the quality of capital market development and supporting technology enterprises[11] - On April 19, 2024, the CSRC released "Sixteen Measures for Capital Market to Serve High-Level Development of Technology Enterprises," which includes establishing a financing "green channel" for tech firms[11] - The "Eight Measures" released on June 19, 2024, focus on deepening the reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to support innovative technology enterprises[11] Group 2: Market Trends - In the first half of 2024, the number of IPOs in China's A-share market dropped to 30, raising a total of 23.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.9% and 63.8% year-on-year respectively[5] - The number of companies listed on the A-share market in 2023 was 313, with a total fundraising amount of 411 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 27% and 39%[11] - The private equity industry in China reached a total paid-in capital of 19.9 trillion yuan by the end of Q1 2024, with over 152,000 funds established[56] Group 3: Financing Mechanisms - The establishment of a "green channel" for technology enterprises is crucial for addressing financing difficulties and facilitating quicker access to funds[4] - The new policies encourage banks to enhance their participation in investment and loan linkage, private equity investments, and other financing opportunities for tech firms[21] - The introduction of a shelf registration system for refinancing is expected to simplify the fundraising process for technology enterprises, allowing for "one-time approval, multiple issuances"[55]

Group 1: Economic Reform and Development Goals - The report emphasizes the need to prioritize reform to advance Chinese-style modernization, with a clear roadmap and timeline set for achieving reform goals by 2035[5] - Key reform tasks for the next five years include constructing a high-level socialist market economy, enhancing mechanisms for high-quality economic development, and establishing a supportive innovation system[5] - By 2029, the goal is to complete the proposed reform tasks in time for the 80th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China[5] Group 2: High-Quality Development - High-quality development is identified as the primary task for building a modern socialist country, continuing the themes from the 20th National Congress and the Central Economic Work Conference[7] - The report highlights the importance of balancing government and market roles, ensuring that market mechanisms are effectively utilized while maintaining order and addressing market failures[16] - The focus on enhancing the service industry and modern infrastructure is crucial for improving the resilience and safety of industrial supply chains[13] Group 3: Innovation and Talent Development - The report stresses the need for reforms in education, technology, and talent systems to support new productive forces, with R&D spending in 2023 reaching CNY 3.3 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%[21] - The number of domestic invention patents reached 4.015 million in 2023, marking a 22.4% increase, indicating a strong emphasis on innovation[21] Group 4: Macro-Control and Governance - The report calls for enhancing the scientific nature of macro-control to balance economic growth, optimize structure, and ensure internal and external equilibrium[23] - It emphasizes the need for a coordinated macroeconomic governance system that aligns fiscal and monetary policies with employment, industry, investment, consumption, and environmental policies[41] Group 5: Open Economy and International Cooperation - The report advocates for expanding institutional openness to align with international trade and investment standards, enhancing China's position in global markets[28] - It highlights the importance of optimizing regional open layouts to promote coordinated development and security, with the central and western regions accounting for nearly 20% of total exports in 2023, a 5 percentage point increase from five years ago[29]