大摩宏观闭门会：政治局会议前瞻，稳定币解读及房地产市场更新 20250630 发言人 00:00 发言人 00:09 大家上午好，欢迎来到 1 周一度的大模宏观策略谈，我是罗丙邢志强。大家肯定很关注接下来七月份有 政治局会议对下半年的经济政策定调，会不会有一些新的调整变化。我从昨天开始，周末就到了北京， 这周也会参加一些闭门研讨。我想现在各个部委、各个智库、各个体制内都在紧锣密鼓的分析经济形势 为决策层供稿谏言准备一些政策选项。我今天和我们团队的三位主讲嘉宾，包括蔡志鹏博士经济学家， 包括张磊，我们大宗商品和战略原材料行业的主管，以及安全我们香港房地产的分析师一起会聚焦四个 问题。第一点就是政治局会议对下半年经济政策节奏和空间的判断。第二点则是最近把中美博弈的因素 扩展到货币结算体系，包括人民币稳定币以及稀土这张牌中国接下来会怎么打？其实稀土小院高墙这张 牌跟稳定币人民币的贸易结算之间是有互相促进的可能性，我们会做一些探讨和分析。 发言人 01:40 这里面尽管今天 lao ra 我们的首席策略是由于在休假错过一周，但我们也会简单的涉及到一点，从过 去三四个月我们讲到的东稳西大，就美国的各种政策不确定性带来的 ...

金融界6月19日消息，上证指数低开低走，中证港股通地产指数 (港股通地产，931025)报1543.32点。 数据统计显示，中证港股通地产指数近一个月上涨3.41%，近三个月下跌0.88%，年至今上涨7.81%。 据了解，中证港股通地产投资指数从港股通范围合资格证券中选取符合地产主题的不超过50家香港市场 上市公司作为样本，以反映相关行业主题上市公司的整体表现。该指数以2014年11月14日为基日，以 3000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，中证港股通地产指数十大权重分别为：新鸿基地产（13.77%）、贝壳-W（13.5%）、 华润置地（10.84%）、长实集团（7.94%）、中国海外发展（6.58%）、九龙仓置业（4.42%）、恒基地 产（4.42%）、信和置业（4.26%）、九龙仓集团（3.23%）、华润万象生活（2.97%）。 从中证港股通地产指数持仓样本的行业来看，房地产占比100.00%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。特殊情况下将 对该指数进行临时调整。当样 ...

Industry Overview - The Chinese commercial real estate industry demonstrates resilience and vitality in the complex environment of 2024, with asset operation-focused companies showing stronger risk resistance and rental income becoming a stable cash flow source [1] - Over 85 shopping centers reported rental income exceeding 100 million yuan, with more than 60 centers experiencing year-on-year growth [1] - First-tier and new first-tier cities remain the main revenue sources, while second-tier cities like Shenyang, Dalian, Wuxi, Jinan, and Changzhou also show significant revenue potential [1] - The industry is entering a "stock operation decisive period," with many companies focusing on existing projects, leading to increased foot traffic, rental income, and sales [1] Company Highlights China Resources Land & China Resources Vientiane Life - China Resources Land reported revenue of 278.8 billion yuan, up 11.0%, but net profit down 18.5% to 25.58 billion yuan [2] - China Resources Vientiane Life achieved a revenue of 17.04 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase, with core net profit rising 20.1% to 3.51 billion yuan [2] - The rental income from shopping centers reached 19.35 billion yuan, growing 8.4% [2] Longfor Group - Longfor Group's revenue was 127.47 billion yuan, down 29.5%, with net profit decreasing 19.1% to 10.4 billion yuan [14] - The shopping mall rental income reached 10.98 billion yuan, up 6.8%, with 42 malls generating over 100 million yuan in rental income [14] - The average daily foot traffic across malls was 3.28 million, with an overall occupancy rate of 96.8% [14] New城控股 (New World Group) - New World Group reported revenue of 89 billion yuan, down 25.3%, but net profit increased 2.1% to 750 million yuan [24] - The total revenue from commercial operations was 12.81 billion yuan, up 13.1% [24] - The company opened 15 new shopping centers in 2024, including 8 light-asset projects [27] Dalian Wanda Commercial Management - Dalian Wanda opened 25 new Wanda Plazas in 2024, with over 500 projects in operation [10] - The company aims to open 30 new Wanda Plazas in 2025, focusing on central and eastern China [12] Joy City Properties - Joy City reported revenue of 19.83 billion yuan, a 49.4% increase, with shopping center rental income at 3.02 billion yuan, up 1% [32] - The company opened 3 new Joy Cities in 2024, all achieving over 98% occupancy [37] Baolong Real Estate & Baolong Commercial - Baolong Real Estate reported revenue of 25.76 billion yuan, up 12.5%, while Baolong Commercial's revenue was 2.62 billion yuan, down 0.7% [41] - Baolong Commercial opened 11 new projects in 2024, including 7 Baolong Plazas [41]

智通财经APP获悉，李宁-R(82331)、中银香港-R(82388)、联想集团-R(80992)上一交易日沽空比率位于 前三位，分别为100.00%、97.81%、95.62%。阿里巴巴-SW(09988)、美团-W(03690)、小米集团- W(01810)的沽空金额位居前三，分别为25.99 亿元、16.26 亿元、16.22 亿元。中银香港-R(82388)、联想 集团-R(80992)、金隅集团(02009)的偏离值位居前三，分别为53.64%、51.19%、37.02%。 前十大沽空金额排行 前十大沽空比率排行 | 股票名称 | 沽空金额 | 沽空比率↓ | 偏离值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李宁-R(82331) | 6.21 万元 | 100.00% | 31.55% | | 中银香港-R(82388) | 204.39 万元 | 97.81% | 53.64% | | 联想集团-R(80992) | 253.01 万元 | 95.62% | 51.19% | | 百度集团-SWR(89888) | 116.09 万元 | 88.84% | 33.30% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Real Estate has shown positive performance, with a 2.32% increase over the past month, 5.66% over the past three months, and a 4.20% increase year-to-date [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Real Estate reported a current value of 1491.62 points [1]. - The index was established on November 14, 2014, with a base value of 3000.0 points [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes a maximum of 50 eligible Hong Kong-listed companies that meet the real estate theme criteria [1]. - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: - Sun Hung Kai Properties (15.33%) - China Resources Land (11.68%) - Cheung Kong Property (8.89%) - China Overseas Land & Investment (7.48%) - Sino Land (4.72%) - Henderson Land Development (4.62%) - Wharf Real Estate Investment (4.57%) - Longfor Group (3.58%) - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (3.32%) - Wharf Holdings (3.18%) [1]. Group 3: Market and Sector Allocation - The index's holdings are entirely composed of real estate companies, with a 100% allocation to the real estate sector [2]. - The index is exclusively composed of companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation to this market [1].

观点指数研究院在发布的《表现力指数•2025购物中心暨零售消费发展报告》中指出，今年1—4月，观点指数样本 零售企业中，直接面临的现实就是：市场承压，约四成商业零售企业面临营收增长考验。 观点指数认为，这与当前市场环境有关，在消费未见明显增长且存量竞争加剧的情况下，企业对推动项目入市更 为审慎。空置率方面，上海和成都的空置率较为突出，分别达到8.5%和8.3%。租金方面，上海和北京是目前零售 商业租金水平最高的两个城市，分别达到31.3和32.3元/平方米/天，二线城市中的杭州也有不错的表现，达到21元/ 平方米/天。 "目前市场上仍有大量存量在等待消化，市场回暖和消费升级的可能性不大。"世联行首席技术官、广东省房协专 家委主任委员黎振伟在5月13日举办的2025观点购物中心暨零售消费峰会上向《华夏时报》记者表示，消费者在缩 减非必要开支的同时愿意为精准满足核心需求的产品支付溢价。所以目前整个商业追求的并非档次，而是品质和 服务。 5月13日，2025观点购物中心暨零售消费峰会在深圳举行。在峰会的现场，还发布了表现力指数2025购物中心暨零 售消费发展报告。 提振消费需以载体经济发展为根基 观点指数数据显示， ...

恒隆开创内地高端零售先河、太古"十年磨一剑"打造有情怀的商业、新鸿基玩转"地标建筑+TOD"、K11将艺术注入商业、永旺以人性化圈粉，还有"旧改 王者"瑞安、"淘金者"凯德...... 作为商业地产行业的佼佼者，港外资巨头们都各凭本事，在内地市场建立起牢固的竞争壁垒。它们在内地的产品线布局、最新拓展计划，以及明星项目新 动态也成了行业的风向标，备受关注。 赢商网梳理了瑞安、新鸿基、K11、太古、香港置地、恒隆、嘉里、九龙仓、领展、凯德、永旺、SM、英格卡等13个港外资商业地产企业最新商业产品 线、已开和筹开项目的布局情况。 13个企业内地布局40+筹开项目，今年预计将有至少14个新项目入市；内地已成头部港企的"主战场"，上海备受青睐； 外资企业避开高能级市场，重仓非 一线城市；多个新产品线首进内地，产品线更加多元化；多个企业为适应市场变化灵活调整产品定位，有的坚守高端，有的转向次高端，有的押注年轻 化。 01 港资 瑞安房地产 "XINTIANDI新天地"是瑞安旗下的商业品牌，新天地社区是糅合了历史建筑与现代化设施的大型城市社区，遍布全国主要城市中心。其细分为几大产品 线： ■ 城市综合体：瑞安新天地最核心的 ...

编者按 5月12日至16日，2025湖南-粤港澳大湾区经贸合作交流会（简称"港洽周"）将在香港、深圳举行，长沙将盛装赴 会。粤港澳大湾区活力无限，长沙与其经贸往来源远流长。此次长沙以专题活动、精准招商为桥梁，聚焦产业升 级、科技创新等领域深化协作。即日起，长沙晚报联合长沙市商务局推出"湘约长沙 湾启新程"系列报道，带您直 击精彩瞬间，见证长沙融入大湾区建设的新成果。 长沙晚报全媒体记者 刘捷萍 通讯员 汪宏桥 看好长沙，对长沙有信心 九龙仓集团是香港十大地产商之一，其在国内布局了5座国金中心，分别位于成都、重庆、苏州、无锡和长沙。 在谈及为何选择长沙投资国金中心项目时，九龙仓集团主席兼常务董事吴天海曾表示，选择长沙是因为对这个城 市"很看好"，他说："长沙是很有活力的城市，跟50年前的香港一样，有着很多新的可能。" 潮涌湘江畔，长沙国金中心凭借独特的商业魅力，接连迎来爱马仕、迪奥、普拉达、始祖鸟、MIU MIU、柏悦酒 店等150家国内外品牌湖南首店。这些"城市首秀"不仅是商业版图的迭代升级，更是品牌以实际行动为长沙消费活 力投下的"信任票"。 从湘江之畔的一片旧街区，到全国瞩目的商业地标，长沙国金中心是长沙 ...

Core Points - The China Securities Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Real Estate has shown significant growth, with a 9.35% increase over the past month, 7.83% over the last three months, and a 3.95% rise year-to-date [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The current value of the China Securities Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Real Estate is reported at 1488.12 points [1]. - The index was established on November 14, 2014, with a base value of 3000.0 points [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes a maximum of 50 eligible Hong Kong-listed companies that reflect the real estate theme [2]. - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: - Sun Hung Kai Properties (14.39%) - China Resources Land (12.18%) - Cheung Kong Property (8.91%) - China Overseas Land & Investment (7.68%) - Sino Land (4.76%) - Wharf Real Estate Investment (4.51%) - Henderson Land Development (4.28%) - Longfor Group (3.65%) - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (3.3%) - Wharf Holdings (3.09%) [2]. Group 3: Sector Allocation - The index's holdings are entirely composed of companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3]. - The sector breakdown of the index holdings is as follows: - Real Estate Development: 77.56% - Real Estate Management: 11.73% - Real Estate Services: 10.71% [3]. Group 4: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, specifically on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3]. - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as when a sample company is delisted or when new companies meet the eligibility criteria for inclusion [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights significant trading volume increases for various companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating potential investment opportunities in these stocks [1][2][3] Group 1: Companies with High Trading Volume - 华人置业 (00127) recorded a trading volume ratio of 2.11 with a transaction amount of 1.23 million [2] - 港铁公司 (00066) had a trading volume ratio of 1.99 and a transaction amount of 32.40 million [2] - 新鸿基地产 (00016) showed a trading volume ratio of 1.58 with a transaction amount of 45.68 million [2] Group 2: Companies with Notable Trading Activity - 美的集团 (00300) experienced a trading volume ratio of 1.36 and a transaction amount of 48.62 million [2] - 金蝶国际 (00268) had a trading volume ratio of 1.18 with a transaction amount of 64.26 million [2] - 招商银行 (03968) reported a trading volume ratio of 0.84 and a transaction amount of 90.21 million [3] Group 3: Companies with Sustained Volume Increases - 新濠国际发展 (00200) maintained a trading volume ratio of 1.41 over five days [2] - 兆邦基生活 (01660) had a trading volume ratio of 1.05 sustained over five days [2] - 中远海运港口 (01199) showed a trading volume ratio of 0.68 over six days [3]